<p>华尔街分析师通常会根据股票的动量和受欢迎程度调整其目标价格——这些举动更多是为了保护他们的职业生涯，而不是反映真实价值。他们倾向于避免支持表现不佳的股票，这使得他们的目标在市场下跌和波动时期的可靠性降低。</p>
<p>这就是为什么强劲的基本面在做出明智的投资决策时仍然至关重要，尤其是在考虑逆向观点时。美国科技行业中可能出现这样的机会：Adobe Inc. NASDAQ: ADBE。</p>
<p>Adobe 的股价年初至今已下跌 19%，仅为其 52 周高点的 64%——已深陷熊市。然而，该公司的基本财务状况仍在持续改善，特别是在一个关键指标上：自由现金流（经营现金流减去资本支出）。</p>
<p>自由现金流是任何企业的命脉，而 Adobe 在这一领域的持续增长表明了长期价值，而更广泛的市场似乎对此视而不见。随着这笔现金的不断积累，反弹的理由也在增强。对于那些超越分析师情绪的投资者来说，Adobe 提供了一个值得深入研究的有吸引力的折扣机会。</p>
<h2>在市场不确定性中，Adobe 被视为防御性投资</h2>
<p>在最新的季度财报中，Adobe 的净收入接近 60 亿美元，同比增长 12%。但除了收入增长，真正重要的是这些收入是如何产生的。</p>
<p>随着标准普尔 500 指数接近历史高点，越来越多的投资者开始质疑市场还能上涨多少。在这样的环境中，投资组合往往会转向稳定、可预测的企业——这一模式在以往的市场周期中屡见不鲜。得益于其基于订阅的收入模式，Adobe 完美契合这一模式。</p>
<p>与依赖一次性产品销售的公司不同，Adobe 以惊人的一致性收取每月的经常性付款。这种模式不仅平滑了收益波动，还随着时间的推移复合了价值。一个明显的强劲指标是 204 亿美元的剩余履约义务——通过客户合同已承诺的未来收入。这一积压代表了长期的可见性，并强调了 Adobe 在日益不确定的市场中作为一个耐用、高质量复合体的地位。</p>
<p>毫不奇怪，市场现在将 Adobe 的账面价值定价为高于同行。以 12.8 倍的市净率（P/B）计算，Adobe 高于计算机行业平均的 7.2 倍，这意味着这种偏好已经开始显现。</p>
<p>在自由现金流方面，Adobe 本季度显示出 21 亿美元，而去年为 19 亿美元。随着这笔新现金的到来，管理层决定告知股东，当前报价下的股票确实便宜，这也是他们在本季度回购 800 万股，总交易额达 20 亿美元的原因。</p>
<p>股票回购通常在内部人士认为公司交易价格远低于其实际内在价值时实施。它们还为现有股东提供了在不需要额外现金购买股票的情况下增加持股的机会，从而展示了未来的真实信心。</p>
<h2>市场对 Adobe 股票的看法</h2>
<p>除了当前的账面价值溢价外，Adobe 的乐观迹象还包括加拿大人寿保险公司在 2025 年 8 月增持 20.1%，目前持有 2.084 亿美元的股票。</p>
<p>Adobe 本季度报告的每股收益为 5.31 美元，超过 MarketBeat 共识的 5.18 美元，这表明华尔街的一些观点较为保守。如果财务动能保持高位，Adobe 将更容易继续超越预期。</p>
<p>这就是为什么摩根士丹利分析师 Keith Weiss 最近将目标价从每股 520 美元下调至 450 美元不应被视为放弃的迹象。然而，与当前股票交易价格相比，这一下调的目标价意味着股票有 25% 的上涨潜力。</p>
<p>如果看跌动能和糟糕的价格走势仍然促使这样的分析师呼吁 25% 的上涨，投资者只能想象当动能开始反映 Adobe 的实际内在价值时，观点会是什么样。考虑到这家公司在全球经济数字化中扮演着关键角色，也许应该对这只股票应用更高的溢价倍数。</p>
<h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在 Adobe 吗？</h2>
<p>在考虑 Adobe 之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已经识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向客户推荐现在购买，以便在更广泛的市场注意到之前……而 Adobe 并不在名单上。</p>
<p>虽然 Adobe 目前在分析师中被评为持有，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
<p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>

ADBE

<p>Adobe 最近被摩根士丹利从 520 美元下调至 450 美元，但这不应阻止投资者，因为强劲的基本面表明有潜在反弹的可能。尽管年初至今下跌了 19%，但 Adobe 的自由现金流和基于订阅的收入模式暗示了长期价值。该公司报告净收入增长 12%，自由现金流为 21 亿美元。股票回购表明对股票被低估的信心。分析师认为有 25% 的上涨潜力，使得 Adobe 在市场不确定性中成为一个引人注目的投资机会</p>

<p>Wall Street analysts often adjust their price targets based on a stock’s momentum and popularity—moves designed more to protect their careers than to reflect true value. They tend to avoid backing underperforming stocks, which makes their targets less reliable during market downturns and periods of volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街分析师通常会根据股票的动量和受欢迎程度调整其目标价格——这些举动更多是为了保护他们的职业生涯，而不是反映真实价值。他们倾向于避免支持表现不佳的股票，这使得他们的目标在市场下跌和波动时期的可靠性降低。</p>
</div><p>That’s why strong fundamentals remain essential for making sound investment decisions, especially when considering a contrarian view. One such opportunity may be emerging within the United States technology sector: Adobe Inc. NASDAQ: ADBE.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么强劲的基本面在做出明智的投资决策时仍然至关重要，尤其是在考虑逆向观点时。美国科技行业中可能出现这样的机会：Adobe Inc. NASDAQ: ADBE。</p>
</div><p>Adobe shares have fallen 19% year-to-date, dropping to just 64% of their 52-week high—well into bear market territory. Yet the company’s <strong>u</strong> nderlying financials continue to strengthen, particularly in one critical metric: free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Adobe 的股价年初至今已下跌 19%，仅为其 52 周高点的 64%——已深陷熊市。然而，该公司的基本财务状况仍在持续改善，特别是在一个关键指标上：自由现金流（经营现金流减去资本支出）。</p>
</div><p>Free cash flow is the lifeblood of any business, and Adobe’s consistent growth in this area suggests long-term value that the broader market appears to be missing. As this cash continues to build, so does the case for a rebound. For investors looking beyond analyst sentiment, Adobe presents a compelling discounted opportunity worth a closer look.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自由现金流是任何企业的命脉，而 Adobe 在这一领域的持续增长表明了长期价值，而更广泛的市场似乎对此视而不见。随着这笔现金的不断积累，反弹的理由也在增强。对于那些超越分析师情绪的投资者来说，Adobe 提供了一个值得深入研究的有吸引力的折扣机会。</p>
</div><h2>Adobe Positioned as a Defensive Play Amid Market Uncertainty</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在市场不确定性中，Adobe 被视为防御性投资</h2>
</div><p>In its latest quarterly earnings report, Adobe posted net revenue just shy of $6 billion, marking a 12% year-over-year increase. But beyond the topline growth, what truly matters is how that revenue was generated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最新的季度财报中，Adobe 的净收入接近 60 亿美元，同比增长 12%。但除了收入增长，真正重要的是这些收入是如何产生的。</p>
</div><p>With the S&amp;P 500 trading near all-time high valuations, more investors are beginning to question how much higher the market can go. In such environments, portfolios often shift toward stable, predictable businesses—a pattern seen in previous market cycles. Adobe fits that mold perfectly, thanks to its subscription-based revenue model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着标准普尔 500 指数接近历史高点，越来越多的投资者开始质疑市场还能上涨多少。在这样的环境中，投资组合往往会转向稳定、可预测的企业——这一模式在以往的市场周期中屡见不鲜。得益于其基于订阅的收入模式，Adobe 完美契合这一模式。</p>
</div><p>Unlike companies dependent on one-time product sales, Adobe collects recurring monthly payments with remarkable consistency. This model not only smooths out earnings volatility but also compounds value over time. One clear indicator of this strength is the $20.4 billion in remaining performance obligations—future revenue already committed through customer contracts. That backlog represents long-term visibility and underscores Adobe’s position as a durable, high-quality compounder in an increasingly uncertain market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与依赖一次性产品销售的公司不同，Adobe 以惊人的一致性收取每月的经常性付款。这种模式不仅平滑了收益波动，还随着时间的推移复合了价值。一个明显的强劲指标是 204 亿美元的剩余履约义务——通过客户合同已承诺的未来收入。这一积压代表了长期的可见性，并强调了 Adobe 在日益不确定的市场中作为一个耐用、高质量复合体的地位。</p>
</div><p>To no surprise, markets are now placing Adobe’s book value at a premium compared to peers. With a 12.8x price-to-book (P/B) multiple, Adobe is above the computer sector’s average of just 7.2x today, meaning that the mentioned preference is already starting to show up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫不奇怪，市场现在将 Adobe 的账面价值定价为高于同行。以 12.8 倍的市净率（P/B）计算，Adobe 高于计算机行业平均的 7.2 倍，这意味着这种偏好已经开始显现。</p>
</div><p>When it comes to free cash flow, Adobe’s quarter shows $2.1 billion compared to last year’s $1.9 billion. With this new cash available, management decided to inform shareholders that the stock is indeed cheap as of today’s quoted price, which is why they repurchased eight million shares for a total transaction of $2 billion this quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在自由现金流方面，Adobe 本季度显示出 21 亿美元，而去年为 19 亿美元。随着这笔新现金的到来，管理层决定告知股东，当前报价下的股票确实便宜，这也是他们在本季度回购 800 万股，总交易额达 20 亿美元的原因。</p>
</div><p>Share buybacks are often implemented when insiders believe the company is trading well below its actual intrinsic value. They also provide existing shareholders with an opportunity to increase their ownership in the stock without having to purchase additional shares out of pocket, thereby demonstrating a genuine vote of confidence moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票回购通常在内部人士认为公司交易价格远低于其实际内在价值时实施。它们还为现有股东提供了在不需要额外现金购买股票的情况下增加持股的机会，从而展示了未来的真实信心。</p>
</div><h2>What Markets Think of Adobe Stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场对 Adobe 股票的看法</h2>
</div><p>Besides the current book value premium, signs of optimism for Adobe include Canada Life Assurance's 20.1% increase in holdings in August 2025, now holding $208.4 million in stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了当前的账面价值溢价外，Adobe 的乐观迹象还包括加拿大人寿保险公司在 2025 年 8 月增持 20.1%，目前持有 2.084 亿美元的股票。</p>
</div><p>Adobe reported $5.31 EPS this quarter, surpassing the MarketBeat consensus of $5.18, suggesting some Wall Street views are conservative. This makes it easier for Adobe to continue beating estimates if financial momentum stays high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Adobe 本季度报告的每股收益为 5.31 美元，超过 MarketBeat 共识的 5.18 美元，这表明华尔街的一些观点较为保守。如果财务动能保持高位，Adobe 将更容易继续超越预期。</p>
</div><p>This is why Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss's recent downgrade, from $520 per share to $450, should not be seen as a sign of capitulation. Still, compared to where the stock trades today, this downgraded price target implies a 25% upside potential in the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么摩根士丹利分析师 Keith Weiss 最近将目标价从每股 520 美元下调至 450 美元不应被视为放弃的迹象。然而，与当前股票交易价格相比，这一下调的目标价意味着股票有 25% 的上涨潜力。</p>
</div><p>If bearish momentum and horrible price action still compel an analyst like this one to call for 25% upside, investors can only imagine what the views could be when momentum picks up to reflect Adobe’s actual intrinsic value in the future. Considering that this company plays a crucial role in the global economy's digitization, perhaps a higher premium multiple should be applied to this stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果看跌动能和糟糕的价格走势仍然促使这样的分析师呼吁 25% 的上涨，投资者只能想象当动能开始反映 Adobe 的实际内在价值时，观点会是什么样。考虑到这家公司在全球经济数字化中扮演着关键角色，也许应该对这只股票应用更高的溢价倍数。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Invest $1,000 in Adobe Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在 Adobe 吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider Adobe, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑 Adobe 之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Adobe wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已经识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向客户推荐现在购买，以便在更广泛的市场注意到之前……而 Adobe 并不在名单上。</p>
</div><p>While Adobe currently has a Hold rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 Adobe 目前在分析师中被评为持有，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>
</div>

Fundamentals Say Bet Against the Recent Adobe Downgrade

- 华尔街分析师常根据股票的动量和人气调整目标价。  
- Adobe 股价年初至今下跌 19%，但其自由现金流持续增长。  
- Adobe 的订阅模式和未来收入承诺显示出其长期价值。  

基本面显示应押注反对最近 Adobe 的评级下调