<p><strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 0.41%) 由来自经济 11 个不同部门的 500 家公司组成。要被考虑纳入该指数，必须满足多个标准，包括公司市值至少为 227 亿美元且必须盈利。但即使满足这些条件，最终还是由一个特别委员会决定哪些候选公司能够入选。</p>
<p>标准普尔 500 指数每季度重新平衡一次，这意味着不再符合标准的股票将被更合适的公司取代。最近一次重新平衡发生在 9 月 22 日，当时赌场运营商 <strong>凯撒娱乐</strong> 被 <strong>Robinhood Markets</strong>(HOOD 4.77%) 取代，后者运营着一个受欢迎的在线投资平台。</p>
<p>截至目前，Robinhood 的股票今年上涨了 208%，远超人工智能 (AI) 巨头 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong> 的表现，后者分别回报 28% 和 136%。这对 Robinhood 来说已经是巨大的收益了。这是否意味着投资者搭乘这列火车已经太晚了？请继续阅读。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU0MjIvYW4taW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWNoYXJ0LW9uLXRoZWlyLWNvbXB1dGVyLXNjcmVlbi13aGlsZS1ob2xkaW5nLWEtc21hcnRwaG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU0MjIvYW4taW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWNoYXJ0LW9uLXRoZWlyLWNvbXB1dGVyLXNjcmVlbi13aGlsZS1ob2xkaW5nLWEtc21hcnRwaG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Robinhood 核心业务中出现令人担忧的趋势</h2>
<p>Robinhood 的总收入有两个部分：</p>
<ol>
<li>交易收入，来自为客户处理股票、期权和加密货币交易。</li>
<li>净利息收入，即 Robinhood 在其自身现金和客户存放在其平台上的现金上赚取的利息收入。公司还通过客户用于购买股票和其他金融资产的保证贷款赚取利息。</li>
</ol>
<p>交易收入是更重要的组成部分，因为它反映了其核心业务的表现。去年 11 月，唐纳德·特朗普当选总统推动了交易活动的繁荣，尤其是在加密货币领域，因为他承诺削减监管并采取促进经济增长的政策。这一变化对 Robinhood 来说是_非常好的_。</p>
<p>在 2024 年第四季度，公司交易收入达到创纪录的 6.72 亿美元，其中加密交易收入占到 3.58 亿美元。然而，特朗普的红利很快消退——仅仅六个月后，在 2025 年第二季度（截至 6 月 30 日），Robinhood 的交易收入下降了 20%，降至 5.39 亿美元，加密交易收入暴跌 55%，仅为 1.6 亿美元。</p>
<p>许多流行的加密货币目前正在失去市场份额，因此投资者变得更加谨慎。<strong>狗狗币</strong> 较其 52 周高点下跌了 51%，<strong>柴犬币</strong> 下跌了 63%，<strong>XRP</strong> 下跌了 24%。甚至 <strong>比特币</strong> 也损失了约 11% 的峰值价值。</p>
<p>这并不是 Robinhood 第一次在其加密业务中遭遇急剧下滑。该公司的加密收入在 2021 年第二季度飙升了 4560%，占其总交易收入的一半。但在 2022 年第二季度，仅仅一年后，其加密收入就暴跌了 75%。</p>
<p>Robinhood 收入的缩减与其股价的飙升并不一致，这可能对投资者构成重大问题——但稍后会详细讨论。</p>
<h2>利率下降可能是另一个逆风</h2>
<p>美国联邦储备委员会在 2024 年最后几个月将联邦基金利率（隔夜利率）下调了三次，而几周前的 9 月 17 日，中央银行进行了 2025 年的首次降息。利率下降通常会对 Robinhood 的净利息收入构成逆风，但由于保证贷款和客户现金余额的急剧增加，这一影响正在被抵消。</p>
<p>截至第二季度末，客户在 Robinhood 平台上持有 87 亿美元现金，几乎是去年同期的两倍。公司的保证贷款余额也达到了创纪录的 95 亿美元。</p>
<p>因此，第二季度的净利息收入实际上同比增长了 25%，达到 3.57 亿美元。然而，我不认为公司的保证贷款余额和客户现金余额的增长会永远超过利率下降的幅度。</p>
<p>例如，股市修正可能会导致保证贷款余额下降，因为投资者减少对风险的暴露。此外，在经济衰退的情况下，投资者可能会从交易账户中提取现金，以优先考虑日常开支。</p>
<h2>Robinhood 股票可能面临急剧修正</h2>
<p>Robinhood 股票今年惊人的 208% 涨幅，加上公司收入的缩减，导致其市销率 (P/S) 飙升至 30.8——是自 2021 年上市以来平均值 10.2 的三倍。这被称为倍数扩张，像这样的极端情况几乎总是不可持续的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4f6f3b2d3958c5684e22d8b1e466eed6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4f6f3b2d3958c5684e22d8b1e466eed6.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源于 YCharts；PS = 市价与销售额比。</p>
<p>因此，除非 Robinhood 能够找到从这里实现显著收入增长的方法，否则其股票可能注定要经历急剧修正。为了使其市销率与长期平均值 10.2 相符，股价必须下跌 67%，这并非不可能，因为在上一次加密热潮后，其股价从 2021 年的高点暴跌了超过 80%。</p>
<p>Robinhood 的月活跃用户在今年的第一和第二季度均有所减少，随着活跃交易客户的减少，公司找到更多收入的机会将变得更加困难。因此，现在购买 Robinhood 股票可能不是一个好主意，而已经持有该股票的投资者可能想要兑现部分收益。</p>

HOOD

<p>Robinhood Markets 最近在标准普尔 500 指数中取代了 Caesars Entertainment，股票今年上涨了 208%，表现超过了 Nvidia 和 Palantir。然而，Robinhood 的交易收入显著下降，尤其是在加密货币交易方面，这引发了担忧。此外，尽管保证金贷款有所增加，但利率下降可能会影响其净利息收入。该股票的市销率飙升至 30.8，令人对其可持续性和未来可能的修正产生疑问</p>

<p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.41%) is made up of 500 companies from 11 different sectors of the economy. To be considered for a spot in the index, there are multiple criteria, including that companies must have a market capitalization of at least $22.7 billion and must be profitable. But even after ticking those boxes, a special committee ultimately decides which candidates make the cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 0.41%) 由来自经济 11 个不同部门的 500 家公司组成。要被考虑纳入该指数，必须满足多个标准，包括公司市值至少为 227 亿美元且必须盈利。但即使满足这些条件，最终还是由一个特别委员会决定哪些候选公司能够入选。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 is rebalanced once per quarter, meaning stocks that no longer meet the criteria are removed in favor of more suitable names. The most recent rebalance occurred on Sept. 22, when casino operator <strong>Caesars Entertainment</strong> was replaced by <strong>Robinhood Markets</strong>(HOOD 4.77%), which operates a popular online investing platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 指数每季度重新平衡一次，这意味着不再符合标准的股票将被更合适的公司取代。最近一次重新平衡发生在 9 月 22 日，当时赌场运营商 <strong>凯撒娱乐</strong> 被 <strong>Robinhood Markets</strong>(HOOD 4.77%) 取代，后者运营着一个受欢迎的在线投资平台。</p>
</div><p>Robinhood stock is trading up 208% so far this year, crushing the comparable performances of artificial intelligence (AI) powerhouses <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Palantir Technologies,</strong> which have returned 28% and 136%, respectively. That's a ton of gains already for Robinhood. Does it mean it's too late for investors to board this train? Read on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，Robinhood 的股票今年上涨了 208%，远超人工智能 (AI) 巨头 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong> 的表现，后者分别回报 28% 和 136%。这对 Robinhood 来说已经是巨大的收益了。这是否意味着投资者搭乘这列火车已经太晚了？请继续阅读。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU0MjIvYW4taW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWNoYXJ0LW9uLXRoZWlyLWNvbXB1dGVyLXNjcmVlbi13aGlsZS1ob2xkaW5nLWEtc21hcnRwaG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835422%2Fan-investor-looking-at-a-chart-on-their-computer-screen-while-holding-a-smartphone.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Concerning trends are emerging in Robinhood's core business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Robinhood 核心业务中出现令人担忧的趋势</h2>
</div><p>There are two parts to Robinhood's total revenue:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Robinhood 的总收入有两个部分：</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Transaction revenue, which comes from processing stock, option, and cryptocurrency trades for clients.</li>
<li>Net interest revenue, which is the interest income Robinhood earns on its own cash, and the cash clients store on its platform. The company also earns interest on margin loans, which clients use to buy stocks and other financial assets.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>交易收入，来自为客户处理股票、期权和加密货币交易。</li>
<li>净利息收入，即 Robinhood 在其自身现金和客户存放在其平台上的现金上赚取的利息收入。公司还通过客户用于购买股票和其他金融资产的保证贷款赚取利息。</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Transaction revenue is the more important component, because it reflects the performance of its core business. President Donald Trump's election win last November drove a boom in trading activity, but especially in the cryptocurrency space, as he promised to slash regulation and adopt policies that would boost economic growth. This change ended up being <em>great</em> for Robinhood.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易收入是更重要的组成部分，因为它反映了其核心业务的表现。去年 11 月，唐纳德·特朗普当选总统推动了交易活动的繁荣，尤其是在加密货币领域，因为他承诺削减监管并采取促进经济增长的政策。这一变化对 Robinhood 来说是_非常好的_。</p>
</div><p>In the fourth quarter of 2024, the company's transaction revenue hit an all-time high of $672 million, with crypto transaction revenue making up $358 million of that figure. However, the Trump bump quickly faded -- just six months later, in the second quarter of 2025 (ended June 30), Robinhood's transaction revenue was down 20% to $539 million, with crypto transaction revenue plummeting 55% to just $160 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年第四季度，公司交易收入达到创纪录的 6.72 亿美元，其中加密交易收入占到 3.58 亿美元。然而，特朗普的红利很快消退——仅仅六个月后，在 2025 年第二季度（截至 6 月 30 日），Robinhood 的交易收入下降了 20%，降至 5.39 亿美元，加密交易收入暴跌 55%，仅为 1.6 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Many popular cryptocurrencies are losing ground right now, so investors are being more cautious. <strong>Dogecoin</strong> is down 51% from its 52-week high, <strong>Shiba Inu</strong> is down 63%, and <strong>XRP</strong> has declined by 24%. Even <strong>Bitcoin</strong> has lost around 11% of its peak value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多流行的加密货币目前正在失去市场份额，因此投资者变得更加谨慎。<strong>狗狗币</strong> 较其 52 周高点下跌了 51%，<strong>柴犬币</strong> 下跌了 63%，<strong>XRP</strong> 下跌了 24%。甚至 <strong>比特币</strong> 也损失了约 11% 的峰值价值。</p>
</div><p>This isn't the first time Robinhood has suffered a sharp downturn in its crypto business. The company's crypto revenue soared 4,560% in the second quarter of 2021 and accounted for half its total transaction revenue. But in the second quarter of 2022, just one year later, its crypto revenue had plummeted by 75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是 Robinhood 第一次在其加密业务中遭遇急剧下滑。该公司的加密收入在 2021 年第二季度飙升了 4560%，占其总交易收入的一半。但在 2022 年第二季度，仅仅一年后，其加密收入就暴跌了 75%。</p>
</div><p>Robinhood's shrinking revenue doesn't align with its surging stock price, and this could be a major problem for investors -- but more on this later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Robinhood 收入的缩减与其股价的飙升并不一致，这可能对投资者构成重大问题——但稍后会详细讨论。</p>
</div><h2>Falling interest rates could be another headwind</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利率下降可能是另一个逆风</h2>
</div><p>The U.S. Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate (the overnight interest rate) three times in the final months of 2024, and a few weeks ago, on Sept. 17, the central bank executed its first cut of 2025. Falling interest rates would normally be a headwind for Robinhood's net interest income, but it's being offset by a sharp increase in margin loans and client cash balances.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国联邦储备委员会在 2024 年最后几个月将联邦基金利率（隔夜利率）下调了三次，而几周前的 9 月 17 日，中央银行进行了 2025 年的首次降息。利率下降通常会对 Robinhood 的净利息收入构成逆风，但由于保证贷款和客户现金余额的急剧增加，这一影响正在被抵消。</p>
</div><p>At the end of the second quarter, clients were holding $8.7 billion in cash on Robinhood's platform, which nearly doubled from the year-ago period. The company's margin loan book was also at a record high of $9.5 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至第二季度末，客户在 Robinhood 平台上持有 87 亿美元现金，几乎是去年同期的两倍。公司的保证贷款余额也达到了创纪录的 95 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>As a result, second-quarter net interest income actually grew by 25% year over year to $357 million. However, I wouldn't expect the growth in the company's margin loan book and client cash balances to outrun the decline in interest rates forever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，第二季度的净利息收入实际上同比增长了 25%，达到 3.57 亿美元。然而，我不认为公司的保证贷款余额和客户现金余额的增长会永远超过利率下降的幅度。</p>
</div><p>A stock market correction, for example, could trigger a decline in margin loan balances as investors pare their exposure to risk. Moreover, investors might pull cash out of their trading accounts in the event of an economic recession, as they prioritize day-to-day expenses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，股市修正可能会导致保证贷款余额下降，因为投资者减少对风险的暴露。此外，在经济衰退的情况下，投资者可能会从交易账户中提取现金，以优先考虑日常开支。</p>
</div><h2>Robinhood stock could be heading for a sharp correction</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Robinhood 股票可能面临急剧修正</h2>
</div><p>The incredible 208% gain in Robinhood stock this year, combined with the company's shrinking revenue, has sent its price-to-sales ratio (P/S) surging to 30.8 -- three times higher than its average of 10.2 since it went public in 2021. This is known as a multiple expansion, and an extreme one like this is almost always unsustainable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Robinhood 股票今年惊人的 208% 涨幅，加上公司收入的缩减，导致其市销率 (P/S) 飙升至 30.8——是自 2021 年上市以来平均值 10.2 的三倍。这被称为倍数扩张，像这样的极端情况几乎总是不可持续的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4f6f3b2d3958c5684e22d8b1e466eed6.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4f6f3b2d3958c5684e22d8b1e466eed6.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts; PS = price to sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源于 YCharts；PS = 市价与销售额比。</p>
</div><p>As a result, unless Robinhood can find a way to deliver significant revenue growth from here, its stock might be destined for a sharp correction. It would have to decline by 67% just for its P/S to align with its long-term average of 10.2, which isn't out of the question because it plummeted by more than 80% from its 2021 peak after the last crypto boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，除非 Robinhood 能够找到从这里实现显著收入增长的方法，否则其股票可能注定要经历急剧修正。为了使其市销率与长期平均值 10.2 相符，股价必须下跌 67%，这并非不可能，因为在上一次加密热潮后，其股价从 2021 年的高点暴跌了超过 80%。</p>
</div><p>Robinhood's monthly active user base shrank in both the first and second quarters this year, and it won't be easy for the company to find more revenue with fewer clients actively trading on its platform. Therefore, it probably isn't a good idea to buy Robinhood stock right now, and investors who already own it might want to cash in some of their gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Robinhood 的月活跃用户在今年的第一和第二季度均有所减少，随着活跃交易客户的减少，公司找到更多收入的机会将变得更加困难。因此，现在购买 Robinhood 股票可能不是一个好主意，而已经持有该股票的投资者可能想要兑现部分收益。</p>
</div>

The Newest Stock in the S&P 500 Is Obliterating Nvidia and Palantir This Year. Is It Too Late to Buy?

- 标普 500 指数包含 500 家公司，最近一次重组发生在 9 月 22 日。  
- Robinhood 股票今年上涨 208%，但其收入却在下降。  
- 由于收入萎缩，Robinhood 股票可能面临大幅回调风险。

标普 500 指数中的最新股票今年表现优于英伟达和 Palantir。现在购买是否已经太晚？