<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -1.09%) 的股价在过去五年中仅上涨了 42%（截至 9 月 26 日），这显著落后于整体市场。然而，这并非一直如此，因为该公司的股价在过去 10 年和 20 年中分别飙升了 738% 和 10,320%。</p>
<p>这家高质量的公司应该引起每位长期投资者的关注。这个 “七大奇迹” 股票在五年后会是什么样子？在考虑股价可能的走向之前，首先要考虑的是业务的未来形态。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUzNDUvY2xvdWQtY29tcHV0aW5nLWl0LXRlY2huaWNpYW4taW4tc2VydmVyLXJvb20uanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUzNDUvY2xvdWQtY29tcHV0aW5nLWl0LXRlY2huaWNpYW4taW4tc2VydmVyLXJvb20uanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>AWS 的持续增长</h2>
<p>过去十年中最强大的长期趋势之一是云计算的崛起，企业将其 IT 工作负载从本地转移到更灵活和更具成本效益的解决方案。亚马逊网络服务（AWS）在这一过程中处于领先地位。仅在第二季度（截至 6 月 30 日），其收入就达到了 309 亿美元，营业收入为 102 亿美元。</p>
<p>首席执行官安迪·贾西（Andy Jassy）认为，未来还有巨大的发展空间。他表示，超过 85% 的 IT 支出仍然是在现场进行的。</p>
<p>在过去几年中，各行各业的公司都在关注人工智能（AI），并试图找出利用这一技术提高效率、生产力以及更专注于客户和最终用户的方法。这就是 AWS 再次发挥作用的地方。人工智能的出现提供了更可持续的需求，因为公司需要使用 AWS 工具来构建自己的 AI 应用程序。</p>
<p>在第二季度，AWS 占整个公司的收入的 18% 和营业收入的 53%。展望未来五年，我怀疑这两个指标会更高。考虑到 AWS 的令人印象深刻的增长轨迹，这可能是一个安全的假设。</p>
<h2>不要忘记在线购物</h2>
<p>当我们展望 2030 年的亚马逊时，显然在线购物将仍然是业务的关键部分。这并不是一个有争议的观点。它在整体零售行业中主导了这一细分市场，这种情况不会很快改变。在美国，几乎每 10 美元的在线消费中就有 4 美元是在亚马逊市场上进行的。</p>
<p>而且显然还有更多的增长空间。根据圣路易斯联邦储备银行的数据，即使在过去几十年电子商务支出上升之后，实体零售在美国整体行业中仍占 84%。并不是所有的支出都在向线上转移，但仍有大量扩展潜力。</p>
<p>亚马逊将受益于过去的成功。它拥有丰富的商品选择，并且拥有强大的物流网络，能够提供快速和免费的配送，从而为消费者提供卓越的用户体验。这种布局是很难被竞争对手超越的。</p>
<h2>亚马逊的股票能否超越市场？</h2>
<p>在最近一个季度，亚马逊报告了 1677 亿美元的收入。即使在如此规模下，投资者也可以确信业务将继续以健康的速度增长。除了 AWS 和在线购物外，该公司在数字广告领域也取得了显著成功，该领域的销售在第二季度同比增长了 22%。这也将成为未来几年的利润驱动因素。</p>
<p>在过去五年中，亚马逊的股价表现不及市场，但我相信本十年的剩余时间将会更好。整体收入和盈利在五年后将会更高。这为投资者提供了良好的顺风。</p>
<p>更重要的是，我认为目前的估值非常合理。股票的前瞻市盈率为 28.2。对于这样一家在多个高增长市场中占据主导地位的企业来说，亚马逊是一个明智的投资选择，适合有五年投资期限的投资者。</p>

亚马逊

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>亚马逊的股票在过去五年中上涨了 42%，但落后于整体市场。然而，随着亚马逊网络服务（AWS）的增长，该业务对收入和营业收入的贡献显著，加上在在线购物领域的持续主导地位，预计公司在未来五年将表现更好。数字广告部门也在增长。目前，亚马逊的股票估值合理，是长期投资者的强劲投资选择</p>

<p>Shares of <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -1.09%) have climbed by just 42% in the past five years (as of Sept. 26), which significantly lags the broader market. However, this hasn't always been the case, as the company's shares have soared 738% and 10,320% in the past 10 and 20 years, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -1.09%) 的股价在过去五年中仅上涨了 42%（截至 9 月 26 日），这显著落后于整体市场。然而，这并非一直如此，因为该公司的股价在过去 10 年和 20 年中分别飙升了 738% 和 10,320%。</p>
</div><p>This high-quality company should be on the radar of every long-term investor. Where will this &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stock be in five years? It's important to first consider what the business will look like before thinking about where shares are possibly headed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家高质量的公司应该引起每位长期投资者的关注。这个 “七大奇迹” 股票在五年后会是什么样子？在考虑股价可能的走向之前，首先要考虑的是业务的未来形态。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUzNDUvY2xvdWQtY29tcHV0aW5nLWl0LXRlY2huaWNpYW4taW4tc2VydmVyLXJvb20uanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835345%2Fcloud-computing-it-technician-in-server-room.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The ongoing rise of AWS</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AWS 的持续增长</h2>
</div><p>One of the most powerful secular trends in the past decade has been the rise of cloud computing, as businesses transition their IT workloads from being on-premises to a flexible and more cost-effective solution. Amazon Web Services (AWS) has been leading the charge. It brought in $30.9 billion in revenue and $10.2 billion in operating income just in the second quarter (ended June 30).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去十年中最强大的长期趋势之一是云计算的崛起，企业将其 IT 工作负载从本地转移到更灵活和更具成本效益的解决方案。亚马逊网络服务（AWS）在这一过程中处于领先地位。仅在第二季度（截至 6 月 30 日），其收入就达到了 309 亿美元，营业收入为 102 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>CEO Andy Jassy believes there is a huge runway ahead. He says that more than 85% of IT spending is still on-site.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席执行官安迪·贾西（Andy Jassy）认为，未来还有巨大的发展空间。他表示，超过 85% 的 IT 支出仍然是在现场进行的。</p>
</div><p>In the past few years, companies across the board have been looking at artificial intelligence (AI) and trying to figure out ways to leverage this technology to become more efficient, more productive, and more focused on customers and end users. Here's where AWS comes into the picture again. The advent of AI provides even more sustainable demand because companies will need to use AWS tools to build their own AI applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几年中，各行各业的公司都在关注人工智能（AI），并试图找出利用这一技术提高效率、生产力以及更专注于客户和最终用户的方法。这就是 AWS 再次发挥作用的地方。人工智能的出现提供了更可持续的需求，因为公司需要使用 AWS 工具来构建自己的 AI 应用程序。</p>
</div><p>In the second quarter, AWS represented 18% of the entire company's revenue and 53% of its operating income. Looking out five years from now, I would suspect that these two metrics will be higher. That's probably a safe assumption given the impressive trajectory that AWS has been on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二季度，AWS 占整个公司的收入的 18% 和营业收入的 53%。展望未来五年，我怀疑这两个指标会更高。考虑到 AWS 的令人印象深刻的增长轨迹，这可能是一个安全的假设。</p>
</div><h2>Don't forget about online shopping</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不要忘记在线购物</h2>
</div><p>When we look at what Amazon might be in the year 2030, it should be obvious that online shopping will remain a key part of the business. That's not a controversial perspective. It has dominated this niche in the overall retail sector, and that's not going to change anytime soon. In the U.S., nearly $4 of every $10 spent online happens on the Amazon marketplace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当我们展望 2030 年的亚马逊时，显然在线购物将仍然是业务的关键部分。这并不是一个有争议的观点。它在整体零售行业中主导了这一细分市场，这种情况不会很快改变。在美国，几乎每 10 美元的在线消费中就有 4 美元是在亚马逊市场上进行的。</p>
</div><p>And there is clearly more room to run. Even after the rise of e-commerce spending in the past couple of decades, physical retail still represents 84% of the entire sector in the U.S., according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Not all spending is moving online, but there's plenty of expansion potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且显然还有更多的增长空间。根据圣路易斯联邦储备银行的数据，即使在过去几十年电子商务支出上升之后，实体零售在美国整体行业中仍占 84%。并不是所有的支出都在向线上转移，但仍有大量扩展潜力。</p>
</div><p>Amazon will benefit, as it has in the past. It has a huge selection of items. And it has a robust logistics network that facilitates fast and free shipping, which provides consumers with a superior user experience. This setup is difficult to compete with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊将受益于过去的成功。它拥有丰富的商品选择，并且拥有强大的物流网络，能够提供快速和免费的配送，从而为消费者提供卓越的用户体验。这种布局是很难被竞争对手超越的。</p>
</div><h2>Can Amazon stock beat the market?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊的股票能否超越市场？</h2>
</div><p>In the most recent quarter, Amazon reported $167.7 billion in revenue. Even at this scale, investors can be confident that the business will keep growing at a healthy rate. In addition to AWS and online shopping, the company is also finding remarkable success in digital advertising, a segment whose sales were up 22% in the second quarter year over year. This will also be a profit driver in the years ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近一个季度，亚马逊报告了 1677 亿美元的收入。即使在如此规模下，投资者也可以确信业务将继续以健康的速度增长。除了 AWS 和在线购物外，该公司在数字广告领域也取得了显著成功，该领域的销售在第二季度同比增长了 22%。这也将成为未来几年的利润驱动因素。</p>
</div><p>Amazon shares underperformed the market in the past five years, but I believe the rest of this decade will prove to be much better. Overall revenue and earnings will be higher five years from now. That provides a nice tailwind for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去五年中，亚马逊的股价表现不及市场，但我相信本十年的剩余时间将会更好。整体收入和盈利在五年后将会更高。这为投资者提供了良好的顺风。</p>
</div><p>What's more, the valuation right now is very reasonable, in my view. Shares trade at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 28.2. For such a dominant business that has its hands in various high-growth markets, Amazon is a smart bet to make for investors with a five-year time horizon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，我认为目前的估值非常合理。股票的前瞻市盈率为 28.2。对于这样一家在多个高增长市场中占据主导地位的企业来说，亚马逊是一个明智的投资选择，适合有五年投资期限的投资者。</p>
</div>

Where Will Amazon Stock Be in 5 Years?

- 亚马逊过去五年股价上涨仅 42%，远低于市场整体表现。  
- AWS 在云计算领域持续增长，第二季度收入达 309 亿美元。  
- 在线购物和数字广告也将推动未来五年业绩增长。

五年后亚马逊的股价会达到什么水平？