<p>就业是整体经济健康最重要的因素之一，因此当 <strong>ADP</strong> 在周三报告称九月份私营部门就业减少了 32,000 个职位时，这似乎是个坏消息。</p>
<p>本月的 ADP 报告尤其重要，因为劳工统计局的官方失业报告原定于周五发布，但预计由于政府停摆将被推迟。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU3OTMvbWFya2V0LWRhdGEuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU3OTMvbWFya2V0LWRhdGEuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>ADP 数据所显示的情况</h2>
<p>根据 ADP 的数据，中小型企业在九月份受到的打击最大，失去了 60,000 个职位，而员工超过 500 人的公司则增加了 33,000 个职位。</p>
<p>这并不令人惊讶，因为中小型企业往往对宏观经济因素比大型企业更敏感。失去职位的行业包括建筑、制造、贸易、运输和公用事业；金融服务、专业和商业服务；以及休闲和酒店业。</p>
<p>这些主要是周期性行业，这可能暗示着衰退的开始。至少，这清楚地表明经济正在减弱。</p>
<p>ADP 首席经济学家 Nela Richardson 在报告中表示，这一数字&#34;进一步验证了我们在劳动力市场上看到的情况，即美国雇主在招聘方面一直很谨慎。&#34;</p>
<h2>这对投资者意味着什么</h2>
<p>市场似乎对这一消息不以为然，因为根据主要指数，股票在东部时间中午时基本持平，而该报告可能被政府停摆的第一天所掩盖。</p>
<p>这些疲弱的数据远远低于预期的 45,000 个新增职位，而八月份的结果从增加 54,000 个职位修正为减少 3,000 个职位。</p>
<p>疲弱的就业报告并不像看起来那么简单。虽然投资者热衷于避免衰退，但乏力的劳动力市场将促使美联储继续降息，这对股市有利。较低的利率鼓励企业借贷和扩张，降低了贴现现金流等金融模型中的贴现率，并使债券相较于股票的吸引力降低。</p>
<p>这是一种微妙的平衡，但考虑到高企的利率和普遍较低的失业率，投资者似乎愿意对一个月的适度失业数据置之不理。此外，ADP 报告的影响力不及 BLS 的报告。</p>
<p>目前，一个月的疲弱数据并不是警报的理由，但投资者应密切关注即将发布的劳动力市场报告。如果就业市场继续恶化，可能会比大多数投资者想象的更早影响股市。此外，政府停摆可能意味着公共部门数千人裁员，进一步加剧劳动力市场的困境。</p>

自动数据处理

<p>ADP 报告显示，九月份私营部门就业岗位减少了 32,000 个，其中中小型企业失去了 60,000 个岗位。这表明经济正在减弱，因为建筑和制造等周期性行业受到了影响。尽管报告疲软，但股市保持稳定，因为投资者预期疲软的劳动力市场可能会导致联邦储备委员会降息，从而利好股票。然而，持续的就业市场恶化可能会影响股市，尤其是在政府停摆可能导致公共部门裁员的情况下</p>

<p>Employment is one of the most important factors in the health of the overall economy so it seemed like bad news when <strong>ADP</strong> reported on Wednesday that private-sector employment was down by 32,000 jobs in September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就业是整体经济健康最重要的因素之一，因此当 <strong>ADP</strong> 在周三报告称九月份私营部门就业减少了 32,000 个职位时，这似乎是个坏消息。</p>
</div><p>The ADP report is especially important this month, because the official unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which was due out on Friday, is expected to be delayed due to the government shutdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月的 ADP 报告尤其重要，因为劳工统计局的官方失业报告原定于周五发布，但预计由于政府停摆将被推迟。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU3OTMvbWFya2V0LWRhdGEuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835793%2Fmarket-data.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What the ADP data shows</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>ADP 数据所显示的情况</h2>
</div><p>According to ADP, small and medium-sized businesses were hit the hardest in September, losing 60,000 jobs, while companies with more than 500 employees added 33,000 jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 ADP 的数据，中小型企业在九月份受到的打击最大，失去了 60,000 个职位，而员工超过 500 人的公司则增加了 33,000 个职位。</p>
</div><p>That's not surprising, as small and medium-sized businesses tend to be more sensitive to macroeconomic factors than large corporations. Among the industries that lost jobs were construction, manufacturing, trade, transportation, and utilities; financial services, professional, and business services; and leisure and hospitality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不令人惊讶，因为中小型企业往往对宏观经济因素比大型企业更敏感。失去职位的行业包括建筑、制造、贸易、运输和公用事业；金融服务、专业和商业服务；以及休闲和酒店业。</p>
</div><p>Those are primarily cyclical businesses, which could hint at the beginning of a recession. At the very least, it's a clear sign of a weakening economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些主要是周期性行业，这可能暗示着衰退的开始。至少，这清楚地表明经济正在减弱。</p>
</div><p>ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in the report that the number &#34;further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ADP 首席经济学家 Nela Richardson 在报告中表示，这一数字&#34;进一步验证了我们在劳动力市场上看到的情况，即美国雇主在招聘方面一直很谨慎。&#34;</p>
</div><h2>What it means for investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对投资者意味着什么</h2>
</div><p>The market seemed to shrug off the news, as stocks were essentially flat around noon ET based on the major indexes, and the report may have been overshadowed by the first day of the government shutdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场似乎对这一消息不以为然，因为根据主要指数，股票在东部时间中午时基本持平，而该报告可能被政府停摆的第一天所掩盖。</p>
</div><p>The weak numbers were significantly worse than expectations of 45,000 net new jobs, and August's results were revised down from a gain of 54,000 jobs to a loss of 3,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些疲弱的数据远远低于预期的 45,000 个新增职位，而八月份的结果从增加 54,000 个职位修正为减少 3,000 个职位。</p>
</div><p>A weak jobs report isn't as straightforward as it might seem. While investors are keen on avoiding a recession, a lackluster labor market will encourage the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates, which favors the stock market. Lower rates encourage business borrowing and expansion, lower the discount rates in financial models like the discounted cash flow, and make bonds less attractive compared to stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲弱的就业报告并不像看起来那么简单。虽然投资者热衷于避免衰退，但乏力的劳动力市场将促使美联储继续降息，这对股市有利。较低的利率鼓励企业借贷和扩张，降低了贴现现金流等金融模型中的贴现率，并使债券相较于股票的吸引力降低。</p>
</div><p>It's a delicate balance, but investors seem willing to shrug off one month of modest job losses, given elevated interest rates and a generally low unemployment rate. Additionally, the ADP report doesn't carry the same clout as the one from the BLS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一种微妙的平衡，但考虑到高企的利率和普遍较低的失业率，投资者似乎愿意对一个月的适度失业数据置之不理。此外，ADP 报告的影响力不及 BLS 的报告。</p>
</div><p>For now, one month's worth of weak numbers isn't a reason for alarm, but investors should keep a close eye on upcoming labor market reports. If the job market continues to deteriorate, it could impact the stock market sooner than most investors think. Additionally, the government shutdown could mean thousands of layoffs in the public sector, adding to woes in the labor market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，一个月的疲弱数据并不是警报的理由，但投资者应密切关注即将发布的劳动力市场报告。如果就业市场继续恶化，可能会比大多数投资者想象的更早影响股市。此外，政府停摆可能意味着公共部门数千人裁员，进一步加剧劳动力市场的困境。</p>
</div>

ADP Data Points to Cooling Jobs Market -- What Investors Should Take Away

- ADP 报告显示，9 月私营部门就业减少 32,000 个职位，尤其是中小企业受影响严重。  
- 大型企业则增加 33,000 个职位，显示出经济疲软的迹象。  
- 投资者对这一消息反应平淡，但需关注未来的就业市场报告。  

自动数据处理的数据显示就业市场正在降温——投资者应该关注哪些方面