<p>经济风险正在加剧，投资者开始怀疑现在将重点转向资本保值是否是一个好主意。</p>
<p>首先，美联储在九月中旬将基准联邦基金利率下调了 0.25%，经济情绪表明到 2025 年底可能会进一步降息。</p>
<p>然后，政府停摆于 10 月 1 日生效，这意味着联邦资金将被无限期搁置，联邦政府职位的裁员也很可能发生。这让经济学家和投资者感到焦虑，尤其是劳工部的九月就业报告尚未发布。</p>
<p>这足以让任何人质疑他们对经济的信心。</p>
<p>我们仍然面临持续的关税问题，白宫本周对木材、木料和家具等项目发出了新的贸易税信号。与此同时，消费者支出显示出放缓的迹象。</p>
<p>这就是为什么专家们开始关注防御性股票，以便在市场开始转向时保护今年反弹的一部分利润。</p>
<h2><em>在数据真空中交易波动性</em></h2>
<p><em>由于停摆延迟了关键经济报告，交易者在没有通常操作手册的情况下进行交易。这种不确定性使得每一次财报发布和公司指导更新的影响力都比平时更大，给市场带来了新的波动浪潮。在 10 月 8 日东部时间下午 6 点，Benzinga 的首席市场策略师 Matt Maley 将揭示他如何适应这种环境，以及他目前看到的最具可操作性的交易机会。<strong>预定您的免费名额</strong></em></p>
<p>美国的家庭负责人正准备紧缩钱包，即使假日消费季节已经开始。德勤的全球经济学家 Michael Wolf 在一份新的研究报告中表示：“预计消费者支出在 2025 年剩余时间内将保持相对强劲，然后在 2026 年将显著放缓。”</p>
<p>“在第三季度初，整体工资的增长速度超过了整体支出——这一趋势的变化可能支持未来几个月的增长。然而，就业增长显著放缓，这将抑制整体工资增长，并可能导致支出降低。”</p>
<h2>如何在经济（和情绪）紧张时进行防御性投资</h2>
<p>在不确定的经济和市场环境中，投资者通常会转向防御模式，关注 “安全但不后悔” 的行业，如公用事业、医疗保健和国防支出（尽管后两者在联邦资金停止的情况下可能会受到影响）。</p>
<p>“现在的抗压行业是那些需求缺乏弹性的（人们无法从预算中削减），具有定价能力（能够将上涨的成本转嫁），并且具有低再融资风险（在 6% 的利率下没有资产负债表定时炸弹），” Grosvenor Square Consulting Group 的首席执行官 Carlos Lascurain-Grosvenor 表示。</p>
<p>Lascurain-Grosvenor 表示，他目前的首选防御性股票是零售、综合能源、电信和医疗保健。</p>
<p><strong>石油和天然气股票。</strong> 例如，<strong>埃克森美孚</strong>（NYSE:XOM）拥有强劲的自由现金流、综合运营和可靠的股息。Lascurain-Grosvenor 提到了 <strong>雪佛龙</strong>（NYSE:CVX）和 <strong>道达尔能源</strong>（NYSE:TTE）。“此外，雪佛龙和道达尔能源在结构上相似，几十年来持续增加股息，” 他指出。“道达尔能源将石油和天然气业务与日益增长的能源转型曝光结合在一起；根据一些上市公司的数据，收益率一直在 6% 左右。”</p>
<p><strong>零售选择。</strong> Lascurain-Grosvenor 喜欢 <strong>威瑞森</strong>（NYSE:VZ）和 <strong>开市客</strong>（NASDAQ:COST），因为它们在高收益股息股票中始终排名靠前。“此外，开市客并不是一个价值投资，但其需求坚如磐石，” 他指出。</p>
<p><strong>抗预算破坏的股票选择。</strong> Rockland Trust 的高级副总裁兼研究服务总监 Doug Butler 推荐那些在个人预算紧缩时不受影响的股票，包括公用事业、消费品和一些金融服务行业。</p>
<p>Butler 目前推荐三只防御性股票，包括 <strong>WEC 能源</strong>（NYSE:WEC），称其为 “一个稳健的中西部公用事业公司”，<strong>高露洁 - 棕榄</strong>（NYSE:CL）“人们不会停止刷牙，甚至可能因为外出就餐减少而更多地洗碗，” 他说，并将 <strong>查布</strong>（NYSE:CB）加入他的名单。“保险公司往往非常防御性，因为几乎每个人在经济衰退期间都需要财产保险。”</p>
<p><strong>在艰难时期债券是金子。</strong> 数字资产财富管理公司 Future Digital 的首席执行官 Lucas Kiely 表示，市场的任何抛售都将是全行业的。“所以如果你担心经济，我建议持有国债，因为降息即将到来，” 他建议。“在这种情况下，国债将会上涨。不要试图重新发明轮子。”</p>
<p><strong>具有潜力的房地产基金。</strong> 房地产行业的某些领域受到银行业退出传统贷款的严重影响。“银行账面上有数千亿的未实现损失，他们必须忍耐，而不是进行火售，” Audent Global Asset Management 的首席执行官兼创始人 Paul Feinstein 表示。“这一差距为该领域的基金创造了强劲回报的机会。”</p>
<p>Feinstein 特别喜欢那些利用降息带来的有利顺风的基金。</p>
<p>“我们正在关注独特的抵押贷款支持证券投资，如 AGNC 投资（NASDAQ:AGNC）和 Annaly 资本管理（NYSE:NLY），” Feinstein 说。“它们具有可观的股息（16% 和 14%），杠杆将从降息中受益，抵押资产在降息促进那些之前被困在 3-5% 低于当前市场利率的抵押贷款交易时应该会表现出韧性。”</p>
<p><em>来自我们专家贡献者的编辑内容旨在为公众提供信息，而非个性化投资建议。编辑/贡献者呈现他们的个人观点和策略，这些观点和策略并未被 Benzinga 明确或暗示地批准或认可。</em></p>
<p><em>照片：Shutterstock</em></p>

威瑞森

雪佛龙

埃克森美孚

开市客

<p>随着经济风险上升，投资者正在考虑防御性股票以保护资本。美联储最近的降息和政府停摆加剧了不确定性，影响了消费者支出。专家建议关注需求缺乏弹性和定价能力的行业，如公用事业、医疗保健和零售。值得注意的防御性股票包括埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、威瑞森和开市客。分析师建议在潜在市场抛售中持有国债，并强调由于银行业面临挑战，房地产基金存在机会</p>

<p>Economic risks are piling up, and investors are starting to wonder whether shifting their focus to capital preservation is a good idea right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济风险正在加剧，投资者开始怀疑现在将重点转向资本保值是否是一个好主意。</p>
</div><p>First, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark federal funds rate by 0.25% in mid-September, with economic sentiment indicating further rate cuts by the end of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，美联储在九月中旬将基准联邦基金利率下调了 0.25%，经济情绪表明到 2025 年底可能会进一步降息。</p>
</div><p>Then, a government shutdown went into effect on October 1, meaning federal funds are put on hold for an undetermined amount of time and layoffs from federal government jobs are likely. This has economists and investors anxious, especially as the September employment report from the Department of Labor has not been released.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后，政府停摆于 10 月 1 日生效，这意味着联邦资金将被无限期搁置，联邦政府职位的裁员也很可能发生。这让经济学家和投资者感到焦虑，尤其是劳工部的九月就业报告尚未发布。</p>
</div><p>It’s enough to make anyone question their faith in the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这足以让任何人质疑他们对经济的信心。</p>
</div><p>We still have ongoing tariff troubles, with the White House signaling new trade taxes this week on items such as timber, lumber, and furniture. All while consumer spending is showing signs of slowing down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们仍然面临持续的关税问题，白宫本周对木材、木料和家具等项目发出了新的贸易税信号。与此同时，消费者支出显示出放缓的迹象。</p>
</div><p>That’s why experts are starting to look at defensive stocks to include in their portfolios, to protect some of the profits from this year’s rally in case markets begin to turn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么专家们开始关注防御性股票，以便在市场开始转向时保护今年反弹的一部分利润。</p>
</div><h2><em>Trading Volatility In A Data Vacuum</em></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><em>在数据真空中交易波动性</em></h2>
</div><p><em>With the shutdown delaying key economic reports, traders are navigating without their usual playbook. That uncertainty is making every earnings release and corporate guidance update more impactful than usual, sending fresh waves of volatility through the market. On Wednesday, October 8 at 6 PM ET, Benzinga's Chief Market Strategist Matt Maley will reveal how he's adapting to this environment and where he sees the most actionable opportunities for traders right now. <strong>Reserve Your Free Spot</strong></em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>由于停摆延迟了关键经济报告，交易者在没有通常操作手册的情况下进行交易。这种不确定性使得每一次财报发布和公司指导更新的影响力都比平时更大，给市场带来了新的波动浪潮。在 10 月 8 日东部时间下午 6 点，Benzinga 的首席市场策略师 Matt Maley 将揭示他如何适应这种环境，以及他目前看到的最具可操作性的交易机会。<strong>预定您的免费名额</strong></em></p>
</div><p>U.S. heads of household are getting ready to snap their pocketbooks shut, even as the holiday spending season begins in earnest. “Consumer spending is expected to remain relatively strong for the remainder of 2025 before slowing more substantially in 2026,” said Michael Wolf, a global economist with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, in a new research report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国的家庭负责人正准备紧缩钱包，即使假日消费季节已经开始。德勤的全球经济学家 Michael Wolf 在一份新的研究报告中表示：“预计消费者支出在 2025 年剩余时间内将保持相对强劲，然后在 2026 年将显著放缓。”</p>
</div><p>“Aggregate wages were growing faster than aggregate spending at the start of the third quarter—a change in trend that could support growth in the coming months. However, employment growth has slowed significantly, which will restrain aggregate wage growth and likely bring spending lower as well.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在第三季度初，整体工资的增长速度超过了整体支出——这一趋势的变化可能支持未来几个月的增长。然而，就业增长显著放缓，这将抑制整体工资增长，并可能导致支出降低。”</p>
</div><h2>Here's How To Play Defense When Times (And Moods) Get Tight</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如何在经济（和情绪）紧张时进行防御性投资</h2>
</div><p>In an uncertain economic and market environment, investors often shift toward a defensive mode, focusing on ‘safe but not sorry’ sectors like utilities, healthcare, and defense spending (although the latter two may take a sting or two if the federal funding halt persists).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在不确定的经济和市场环境中，投资者通常会转向防御模式，关注 “安全但不后悔” 的行业，如公用事业、医疗保健和国防支出（尽管后两者在联邦资金停止的情况下可能会受到影响）。</p>
</div><p>“Resilient sectors now are the ones with inelastic demand (people can’t cut it from their budget), pricing power (can pass rising costs through), and with a low refinancing risk (no balance sheet time bombs at 6% rates),” said Carlos Lascurain-Grosvenor, CEO of Grosvenor Square Consulting Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“现在的抗压行业是那些需求缺乏弹性的（人们无法从预算中削减），具有定价能力（能够将上涨的成本转嫁），并且具有低再融资风险（在 6% 的利率下没有资产负债表定时炸弹），” Grosvenor Square Consulting Group 的首席执行官 Carlos Lascurain-Grosvenor 表示。</p>
</div><p>Lascurain-Grosvenor said his top defensive picks right now are retail, integrated energy, telecom, and healthcare.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lascurain-Grosvenor 表示，他目前的首选防御性股票是零售、综合能源、电信和医疗保健。</p>
</div><p><strong>Oil and gas stocks.</strong> For example, <strong>Exxon Mobil</strong>(NYSE:XOM) has strong free cash flow, integrated operations, and a reliable dividend. Lascurain-Grosvenor mentioned <strong>Chevron</strong>(NYSE:CVX) and <strong>TotalEnergies</strong>(NYSE:TTE). “Also, Chevron and TotalEnergies are similar in structure, with decades of consistent dividend increases,” he noted. “TotalEnergies combines oil and gas operations with growing energy transition exposure; yields have been in the 6% range as per some listings.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>石油和天然气股票。</strong> 例如，<strong>埃克森美孚</strong>（NYSE:XOM）拥有强劲的自由现金流、综合运营和可靠的股息。Lascurain-Grosvenor 提到了 <strong>雪佛龙</strong>（NYSE:CVX）和 <strong>道达尔能源</strong>（NYSE:TTE）。“此外，雪佛龙和道达尔能源在结构上相似，几十年来持续增加股息，” 他指出。“道达尔能源将石油和天然气业务与日益增长的能源转型曝光结合在一起；根据一些上市公司的数据，收益率一直在 6% 左右。”</p>
</div><p><strong>Retail picks.</strong> Lascurain-Grosvenor likes <strong>Verizon</strong>(NYSE:VZ) and <strong>Costco</strong>(NASDAQ:COST) because it has consistently ranked among the top high-yield dividend stocks. “Additionally, Costcois not a value play, but has bulletproof inelastic demand,” he noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>零售选择。</strong> Lascurain-Grosvenor 喜欢 <strong>威瑞森</strong>（NYSE:VZ）和 <strong>开市客</strong>（NASDAQ:COST），因为它们在高收益股息股票中始终排名靠前。“此外，开市客并不是一个价值投资，但其需求坚如磐石，” 他指出。</p>
</div><p><strong>Anti-budget-busting proof picks</strong>. Doug Butler, SVP and Director of Research Services at Rockland Trust, recommends stocks that are not impacted when people face tighter personal budgets, including sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and some financial services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>抗预算破坏的股票选择。</strong> Rockland Trust 的高级副总裁兼研究服务总监 Doug Butler 推荐那些在个人预算紧缩时不受影响的股票，包括公用事业、消费品和一些金融服务行业。</p>
</div><p>Butler recommends three stocks as defensive plays right now, including <strong>WEC Energy</strong>(NYSE:WEC), calling it “a solid midwestern utility,” <strong>Colgate-Palmolive</strong>(NYSE:CL) “People won't stop brushing their teeth and may even wash their dishes more since they'll be eating out less,” he said, adding <strong>Chubb</strong>(NYSE:CB) to his list. “Insurance companies tend to be very defensive as almost everyone needs property insurance even during recessions.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Butler 目前推荐三只防御性股票，包括 <strong>WEC 能源</strong>（NYSE:WEC），称其为 “一个稳健的中西部公用事业公司”，<strong>高露洁 - 棕榄</strong>（NYSE:CL）“人们不会停止刷牙，甚至可能因为外出就餐减少而更多地洗碗，” 他说，并将 <strong>查布</strong>（NYSE:CB）加入他的名单。“保险公司往往非常防御性，因为几乎每个人在经济衰退期间都需要财产保险。”</p>
</div><p><strong>Bonds are golden in tough times</strong>. Lucas Kiely, CEO of digital asset wealth manager Future Digital, says any selloff in markets would be sector-wide. “So if you’re worried about the economy, I’d hold treasuries because rate cuts are coming,” he advised. “And, in that scenario, treasuries will go higher. Don’t try to reinvent the wheel.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>在艰难时期债券是金子。</strong> 数字资产财富管理公司 Future Digital 的首席执行官 Lucas Kiely 表示，市场的任何抛售都将是全行业的。“所以如果你担心经济，我建议持有国债，因为降息即将到来，” 他建议。“在这种情况下，国债将会上涨。不要试图重新发明轮子。”</p>
</div><p><strong>Real estate funds with a kick</strong>. Segments of the real estate sector have been severely impacted by the banking industry’s withdrawal from traditional lending. “Banks have hundreds of billions of unrealized losses sitting on the books that they have to ride out, rather than fire sale,” said Paul Feinstein, CEO and founder at Audent Global Asset Management. “This gap has created an opportunity for funds in the space to generate strong returns.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>具有潜力的房地产基金。</strong> 房地产行业的某些领域受到银行业退出传统贷款的严重影响。“银行账面上有数千亿的未实现损失，他们必须忍耐，而不是进行火售，” Audent Global Asset Management 的首席执行官兼创始人 Paul Feinstein 表示。“这一差距为该领域的基金创造了强劲回报的机会。”</p>
</div><p>Feinstein particularly likes funds that leverage the beneficial tailwinds expected from rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Feinstein 特别喜欢那些利用降息带来的有利顺风的基金。</p>
</div><p>“We're looking at unique mortgage-backed security plays like AGNC Investment (NASDAQ:AGNC) and Annaly Capital Management (NYSE:NLY),” Feinstein said. “They have substantial dividends (16% and 14%), leverage that will benefit from rate cuts, and mortgage assets that should prove resilient when rate cuts facilitate home transactions for those previously stuck with mortgage interest rates 3-5% below the current market rate.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们正在关注独特的抵押贷款支持证券投资，如 AGNC 投资（NASDAQ:AGNC）和 Annaly 资本管理（NYSE:NLY），” Feinstein 说。“它们具有可观的股息（16% 和 14%），杠杆将从降息中受益，抵押资产在降息促进那些之前被困在 3-5% 低于当前市场利率的抵押贷款交易时应该会表现出韧性。”</p>
</div><p><em>Editorial content from our expert contributors is intended to be information for the general public and not individualized investment advice. Editors/contributors are presenting their individual opinions and strategies, which are neither expressly nor impliedly approved or endorsed by Benzinga.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来自我们专家贡献者的编辑内容旨在为公众提供信息，而非个性化投资建议。编辑/贡献者呈现他们的个人观点和策略，这些观点和策略并未被 Benzinga 明确或暗示地批准或认可。</em></p>
</div><p><em>Photo: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

10 Defensive Stocks To Consider Buying As Experts Get Skittish

- 投资者对经济风险感到担忧，开始关注资本保值。  
- 美联储降息及政府停摆导致经济数据延迟，增加市场波动。  
- 专家建议关注防御性股票，如公用事业和医疗保健，以应对不确定性。

在专家变得谨慎时可以考虑购买的 10 只防御性股票