<p>根据 S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence 提供的数据，<strong>惠而浦</strong>(WHR 0.63%) 的股票在九月份下跌了 15.6%。此次下跌是由于投资者在利率下调的消息发布后&#34;抛售&#34;以及债券市场对美联储在九月中旬降息的反应相对令人失望。然而，仍然可以提出在股价回调时买入该股票的看涨理由。以下是详细信息。</p>
<h2>惠而浦面临的艰难 2025 年</h2>
<p>今年有两个重大外部事件影响惠而浦。第一个是利率对房地产市场的影响，特别是对房屋销售量的影响。房主通常会在准备出售房屋或搬入新购房屋时进行大宗家电的可自由支配支出。</p>
<p>因此，当抵押贷款利率上升并对房屋销售施加压力时（见下图），惠而浦的高利润可自由支配销售将受到削弱。实际上，管理层在第二季度的财报发布会上指出，从 2015 年到 2020 年，美国对家电的可自由支配购买需求占总需求的 30%。然而，到 2025 年，这一数字已降至仅 20%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7a78544e5bc536f1736ac3eb6385aa5c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7a78544e5bc536f1736ac3eb6385aa5c.png"/></p>
<p>30 年期抵押贷款利率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<h2>外部竞争与关税</h2>
<p>第二个事件是亚洲竞争对手在年初关税威胁下的反应，以及在对亚洲国家实施关税后（随后暂停至 8 月 1 日）的行为。在这两种情况下，惠而浦的亚洲竞争对手都通过提前向市场投放库存来应对关税的全面影响。</p>
<p>再加上房地产市场持续疲软，这就形成了一个激烈竞争的定价和促销环境。这正是惠而浦今年所经历的情况，直到亚洲竞争对手将其提前投放到市场的库存销售完毕，这种情况不太可能缓解——在低利率环境下，这一过程将会更快发生。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzYyODcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTA5MDIxNzM2OC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzYyODcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTA5MDIxNzM2OC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>九月发生了什么</h2>
<p>虽然无法确切知道投资者的行为原因，但我最好的猜测是，投资者在降息传闻中买入了该股票，然后在降息消息发布后卖出。</p>
<p>此外，现实情况是，市场利率和抵押贷款利率与美联储在九月中旬降息时的水平基本保持不变。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/bf5018f9e36a406d9dfecf17ce532c6f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/bf5018f9e36a406d9dfecf17ce532c6f.png"/></p>
<p>30 年期抵押贷款利率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<h2>惠而浦的未来</h2>
<p>惠而浦面临的压力不会迅速得到解决，而且其近期竞争表现不佳的原因不太可能完全归因于外部因素。也就是说，该公司现在 62% 的销售来自北美的大型家电，而其在美国销售的 80% 是在美国制造的。</p>
<p>换句话说，它在特朗普政府的关税政策下处于有利位置，如果能够度过这一困难时期，明年可能会为公司创造一个显著更好的环境。</p>

惠而浦

<p>惠而浦的股票在九月份下跌了 15.6%，原因是投资者对美联储降息和疲软的债券市场的反应。受抵押贷款利率上升的影响，房地产市场的困境使得可选家电的销售预计到 2025 年将从 30% 降至 20%。此外，亚洲竞争对手由于提前囤积库存以应对关税，增加了市场压力。尽管面临这些挑战，惠而浦强大的国内生产能力使其有可能从关税政策中受益，如果能够渡过当前的竞争环境，前景将更为乐观</p>

<p><strong>Whirlpool</strong>(WHR 0.63%) shares declined by 15.6% in September, according to data provided by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. The decline comes down to a combination of investors &#34;selling on the news&#34; of a rate cut and a relatively disappointing bond market reaction to the Federal Reserve rate cut in mid-September. Still, there's a bull case to be made for buying the stock in a dip. Here's the lowdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence 提供的数据，<strong>惠而浦</strong>(WHR 0.63%) 的股票在九月份下跌了 15.6%。此次下跌是由于投资者在利率下调的消息发布后&#34;抛售&#34;以及债券市场对美联储在九月中旬降息的反应相对令人失望。然而，仍然可以提出在股价回调时买入该股票的看涨理由。以下是详细信息。</p>
</div><h2>Whirlpool's difficult 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>惠而浦面临的艰难 2025 年</h2>
</div><p>Two big external events are impacting Whirlpool this year. The first is the impact of interest rates on the housing market, specifically on home sales volumes. Homeowners typically undertake discretionary spending on major domestic appliances as they prepare their homes for sale or move into a recently purchased home.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年有两个重大外部事件影响惠而浦。第一个是利率对房地产市场的影响，特别是对房屋销售量的影响。房主通常会在准备出售房屋或搬入新购房屋时进行大宗家电的可自由支配支出。</p>
</div><p>As such, when mortgage rates rise and put pressure on home sales (see the chart below), Whirlpool's higher-margin discretionary sales will be weakened. Indeed, management noted in its second-quarter earnings presentation that U.S. demand for appliances from discretionary purchases contributed 30% of the total demand from 2015 to 2020. Still, that figure had dropped to just 20% by 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，当抵押贷款利率上升并对房屋销售施加压力时（见下图），惠而浦的高利润可自由支配销售将受到削弱。实际上，管理层在第二季度的财报发布会上指出，从 2015 年到 2020 年，美国对家电的可自由支配购买需求占总需求的 30%。然而，到 2025 年，这一数字已降至仅 20%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7a78544e5bc536f1736ac3eb6385aa5c.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7a78544e5bc536f1736ac3eb6385aa5c.png"/></p>
<p>30 Year Mortgage Rate data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>30 年期抵押贷款利率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Foreign competition and tariffs</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>外部竞争与关税</h2>
</div><p>The second event is the behavior of Asian competitors in response to the threat of tariffs earlier in the year and then after the tariffs on Asian countries were imposed, which were subsequently paused until Aug. 1. In both cases, Whirlpool's Asian competitors responded by preloading the market ahead of the full impact of tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二个事件是亚洲竞争对手在年初关税威胁下的反应，以及在对亚洲国家实施关税后（随后暂停至 8 月 1 日）的行为。在这两种情况下，惠而浦的亚洲竞争对手都通过提前向市场投放库存来应对关税的全面影响。</p>
</div><p>Throw in the ongoing weakness in the housing market, and there's a perfect recipe for an intensely competitive pricing and promotional environment. That's precisely what happened to Whirlpool this year, and it's unlikely to ease until Asian competitors sell down the inventory they've loaded into the market -- something that would occur much more quickly in a lower interest rate environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再加上房地产市场持续疲软，这就形成了一个激烈竞争的定价和促销环境。这正是惠而浦今年所经历的情况，直到亚洲竞争对手将其提前投放到市场的库存销售完毕，这种情况不太可能缓解——在低利率环境下，这一过程将会更快发生。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzYyODcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTA5MDIxNzM2OC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F836287%2Fgettyimages-1090217368-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What happened in September</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>九月发生了什么</h2>
</div><p>While it's impossible to know precisely why investors behave the way they do, my best guess would be that investors bought the stock on the rumor of a rate cut and then sold it on the news of it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然无法确切知道投资者的行为原因，但我最好的猜测是，投资者在降息传闻中买入了该股票，然后在降息消息发布后卖出。</p>
</div><p>In addition, the reality is that market rates and mortgage rates are largely unchanged from their levels when the Federal Reserve cut its rate in mid-September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，现实情况是，市场利率和抵押贷款利率与美联储在九月中旬降息时的水平基本保持不变。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/bf5018f9e36a406d9dfecf17ce532c6f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/bf5018f9e36a406d9dfecf17ce532c6f.png"/></p>
<p>30 Year Mortgage Rate data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>30 年期抵押贷款利率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>What's next for Whirlpool</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>惠而浦的未来</h2>
</div><p>There won't be a quick fix to Whirlpool's pressures, and it's unlikely that all of its recent competitive underperformance is due to external factors. That said, the company now generates 62% of its sales from major domestic appliances in North America, and 80% of what it sells in the U.S. is made in the US.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠而浦面临的压力不会迅速得到解决，而且其近期竞争表现不佳的原因不太可能完全归因于外部因素。也就是说，该公司现在 62% 的销售来自北美的大型家电，而其在美国销售的 80% 是在美国制造的。</p>
</div><p>In other words, it's well positioned to benefit from the Trump administration's tariff regime, and if it can navigate a difficult period, next year could be a significantly better environment for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，它在特朗普政府的关税政策下处于有利位置，如果能够度过这一困难时期，明年可能会为公司创造一个显著更好的环境。</p>
</div>

Here's Why Whirlpool Shares Slumped in September

- 惠而浦 (Whirlpool) 股价在 9 月下跌 15.6%。  
- 主要原因是利率下降的消息引发投资者抛售，以及债券市场反应不佳。  
- 外部因素包括利率对住房市场的影响和亚洲竞争对手的市场行为。  

惠而浦股票在九月份下跌的原因如下