<p>今年早些时候，电动车股票普遍出现大幅下跌，因为美国政府透露将取消几项关键的电动车补贴。然而，从那时起，这些初始损失大部分已经被抹去。然而，这些补贴被取消的影响依然存在。</p>
<p>如果你在 <strong>Lucid Group</strong>(LCID 2.68%)、<strong>Rivian</strong>(RIVN 0.85%) 或 <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -1.41%) 投资了资金，请务必了解以下两个问题，这三家汽车制造商很快将面临这些问题。</p>
<h2>1. 电动车需求可能低于预期</h2>
<p>自 1990 年代以来，全球各国政府一直在提供激励措施，以降低消费者购买电动车的价格。2010 年，美国开始向消费者提供税收抵免，金额在 2500 美元到 7500 美元之间，适用于购买新电动车或二手电动车。有关哪些汽车符合条件以及谁可以获得抵免的规则也存在。但总体而言，这些税收抵免投入了数十亿美元，以降低购买电动车的前期成本。</p>
<p>到 2025 年 9 月 30 日，这些税收抵免将正式取消。这实际上将电动车的最终成本提高了最多 7500 美元。在近 70% 的美国人希望在下一次购车中花费少于 50000 美元的情况下，补贴的取消将立即影响电动车的需求。我们已经看到电动车购买量出现小幅但明显的上升——这表明那些犹豫不决的人在税收抵免到期之前开始购买。合理的推论是，买家正在关注税收抵免，并更倾向于在这些抵免适用于他们的购买时进行购买。</p>
<p>结论：预计 2026 年的电动车需求将低于之前的预期。为了应对这一点，电动车制造商可能被迫降价，以刺激需求，但这将减少毛利润。关键是，Lucid 和 Rivian 预计将在接下来的六到 24 个月内开始生产价格低于 50000 美元的车辆。这些预算车型旨在大幅增加它们的总可寻址市场。如果这些新车型符合条件，它们现在将失去一个关键的补贴，这将使它们对注重成本的买家更具吸引力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU1NTcvdGVzbGEtZXYtZWxlY3RyaWMtdmVoaWNsZS1jaGFyZ2luZy1zdGF0aW9uLTEyMDB4ODAwLTViMmRmNzkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU1NTcvdGVzbGEtZXYtZWxlY3RyaWMtdmVoaWNsZS1jaGFyZ2luZy1zdGF0aW9uLTEyMDB4ODAwLTViMmRmNzkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>2. 这个鲜为人知的数十亿美元补贴在 2026 年将不存在</h2>
<p>许多电动车投资者已经意识到美国的税收抵免将在九月底到期。然而，大多数人并没有意识到还有另一个即将被取消的同样有价值的项目：CAFE 监管抵免，这是汽车制造商超出燃油经济性标准所获得的抵免。</p>
<p>作为电动车生产商，特斯拉、Lucid 和 Rivian 都在这个项目下获得抵免。这些公司随后将这些抵免出售给其他汽车制造商，否则他们将因未生产足够的低排放车辆而面临罚款。由于这些抵免是自动获得的，因此它们可以以基本上 100% 的利润率出售。</p>
<p>这个鲜为人知的项目的价值巨大。特斯拉每年从这个项目中获得数十亿美元的收入，占其毛利润的 10% 到 30%。Rivian 已经告诉投资者，由于这些抵免不再有价值，它将无法从抵免的销售中实现 1 亿美元的收入。对不合规的罚款已被取消，剥夺了竞争汽车制造商重视和购买这些抵免的任何激励。Lucid 也从这个项目中获得了数亿美元的 “免费” 利润。</p>
<p>消费者税收抵免的取消将影响电动车需求。但像这样的汽车监管抵免的取消将产生同样严重的影响。Rivian 和 Lucid 仍在为盈利而挣扎，现在他们将失去一个高利润的收入来源。与此同时，特斯拉在这个项目中从数量上看受益最大。这些抵免的取消可能不会成为头条新闻，但它给这三家公司在 2026 年及以后带来了问题。</p>

特斯拉

RIVN

LCID

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>到 2025 年 9 月 30 日，电动车税收抵免的到期对 Rivian、Lucid 和特斯拉构成了重大挑战。首先，补贴的取消预计会降低电动车的需求，因为买家可能会因成本增加而犹豫。其次，CAFE 监管信用的丧失将进一步压缩这些公司的盈利能力，因为这些信用为它们提供了可观的收入。因此，这三家汽车制造商可能需要调整其战略，以应对 2026 年及以后的这些财务影响</p>

<p>Earlier this year, electric car stocks across the board saw sharp declines after the U.S. government revealed that several critical EV subsidies would be eliminated. Since then, however, most of those initial losses have been erased. Yet the effect of these subsidies being eliminated remains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年早些时候，电动车股票普遍出现大幅下跌，因为美国政府透露将取消几项关键的电动车补贴。然而，从那时起，这些初始损失大部分已经被抹去。然而，这些补贴被取消的影响依然存在。</p>
</div><p>If you have money invested in <strong>Lucid Group</strong>(LCID 2.68%), <strong>Rivian</strong>(RIVN 0.85%), or <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -1.41%), be sure to understand the two problems below that all three of these automakers will face very soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在 <strong>Lucid Group</strong>(LCID 2.68%)、<strong>Rivian</strong>(RIVN 0.85%) 或 <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -1.41%) 投资了资金，请务必了解以下两个问题，这三家汽车制造商很快将面临这些问题。</p>
</div><h2>1. Electric car demand may be lower than expected</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 电动车需求可能低于预期</h2>
</div><p>Governments around the world have been offering incentives that lower the price of EVs for customers since the 1990s. In 2010, the U.S. began offering consumers a tax credit that ranged between $2,500 and $7,500 when buying a new or used electric vehicle. There were rules related to which cars qualified and who exactly could receive the credit. But all in all, these tax credits deployed billions of dollars to lower the upfront cost of buying an electric vehicle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 1990 年代以来，全球各国政府一直在提供激励措施，以降低消费者购买电动车的价格。2010 年，美国开始向消费者提供税收抵免，金额在 2500 美元到 7500 美元之间，适用于购买新电动车或二手电动车。有关哪些汽车符合条件以及谁可以获得抵免的规则也存在。但总体而言，这些税收抵免投入了数十亿美元，以降低购买电动车的前期成本。</p>
</div><p>On Sept. 30, 2025, these tax credits will be formally eliminated. This effectively raises the final cost of an EV by up to $7,500. At a time when nearly 70% of Americans are hoping to spend less than $50,000 on their next vehicle purchase, the elimination of this subsidy should immediately hit EV demand. Already, we're seeing a small but noticeable bump in EV purchases -- a signal that people who have sat on the fence are buying before the tax credits expire. The reasonable implication here is that buyers are paying attention to tax credits, and prefer buying when these credits will apply to their purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到 2025 年 9 月 30 日，这些税收抵免将正式取消。这实际上将电动车的最终成本提高了最多 7500 美元。在近 70% 的美国人希望在下一次购车中花费少于 50000 美元的情况下，补贴的取消将立即影响电动车的需求。我们已经看到电动车购买量出现小幅但明显的上升——这表明那些犹豫不决的人在税收抵免到期之前开始购买。合理的推论是，买家正在关注税收抵免，并更倾向于在这些抵免适用于他们的购买时进行购买。</p>
</div><p>The takeaway: Expect EV demand to be lower in 2026 than previously expected. To counteract this, EV makers may be forced to cut prices, stoking demand, but reducing gross profits. Critically, both Lucid and Rivian expect to start production on vehicles with prices under $50,000 over the next six to 24 months. These budget vehicles are intended to massively increase their total addressable markets. Should those newer models have qualified, they will now be missing a key subsidy that would have made them even more attractive to cost-conscious buyers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结论：预计 2026 年的电动车需求将低于之前的预期。为了应对这一点，电动车制造商可能被迫降价，以刺激需求，但这将减少毛利润。关键是，Lucid 和 Rivian 预计将在接下来的六到 24 个月内开始生产价格低于 50000 美元的车辆。这些预算车型旨在大幅增加它们的总可寻址市场。如果这些新车型符合条件，它们现在将失去一个关键的补贴，这将使它们对注重成本的买家更具吸引力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU1NTcvdGVzbGEtZXYtZWxlY3RyaWMtdmVoaWNsZS1jaGFyZ2luZy1zdGF0aW9uLTEyMDB4ODAwLTViMmRmNzkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835557%2Ftesla-ev-electric-vehicle-charging-station-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>2. This little-known multi-billion-dollar subsidy won't exist in 2026</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 这个鲜为人知的数十亿美元补贴在 2026 年将不存在</h2>
</div><p>Many EV investors are already aware of the U.S. tax credits that are set to expire at the end of September. However, most don't realize that there's another program about to be axed that is equally valuable: CAFE regulatory credits, which are credits earned by auto manufacturers that exceed fuel economy standards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多电动车投资者已经意识到美国的税收抵免将在九月底到期。然而，大多数人并没有意识到还有另一个即将被取消的同样有价值的项目：CAFE 监管抵免，这是汽车制造商超出燃油经济性标准所获得的抵免。</p>
</div><p>As EV producers, Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian all earn credits under this program. These companies then sell these credits to other automakers that would otherwise face fines for not producing enough low-emission vehicles. Because these credits are earned automatically, they can be sold at essentially 100% profit margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为电动车生产商，特斯拉、Lucid 和 Rivian 都在这个项目下获得抵免。这些公司随后将这些抵免出售给其他汽车制造商，否则他们将因未生产足够的低排放车辆而面临罚款。由于这些抵免是自动获得的，因此它们可以以基本上 100% 的利润率出售。</p>
</div><p>The value of this little-understood program is immense. Tesla routinely earned billions of dollars per year from this program, accounting for 10% to 30% of its gross profit. Rivian has already told investors that it wouldn't realize $100 million in revenue from the sale of its credits, since these credits are no longer worth anything. Fines for non-compliance have been eliminated, taking away any incentive for competing automakers to value and purchase these credits. Lucid, too, has earned hundreds of millions of dollars in &#34;free&#34; profit from this program.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个鲜为人知的项目的价值巨大。特斯拉每年从这个项目中获得数十亿美元的收入，占其毛利润的 10% 到 30%。Rivian 已经告诉投资者，由于这些抵免不再有价值，它将无法从抵免的销售中实现 1 亿美元的收入。对不合规的罚款已被取消，剥夺了竞争汽车制造商重视和购买这些抵免的任何激励。Lucid 也从这个项目中获得了数亿美元的 “免费” 利润。</p>
</div><p>The elimination of the consumer tax credit will hit EV demand. But the elimination of automotive regulatory credits like this will have an equally damaging effect. Rivian and Lucid are still struggling for profitability, and now they will lose a highly profitable revenue source. Tesla, meanwhile, has benefited the most from this program on a sheer volume basis. The elimination of these credits may not make headlines, but it poses problems for all three companies in 2026 and beyond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费者税收抵免的取消将影响电动车需求。但像这样的汽车监管抵免的取消将产生同样严重的影响。Rivian 和 Lucid 仍在为盈利而挣扎，现在他们将失去一个高利润的收入来源。与此同时，特斯拉在这个项目中从数量上看受益最大。这些抵免的取消可能不会成为头条新闻，但它给这三家公司在 2026 年及以后带来了问题。</p>
</div>

2 Problems Rivian, Lucid, and Tesla Will Face After the EV Tax Credit Expiration

- 美国政府取消电动车补贴，导致电动车需求可能低于预期。  
- 2026 年将失去 CAFE 监管信用，影响特斯拉、Lucid 和 Rivian 的盈利能力。  
- 这两项变化将对电动车市场产生重大影响。  

Rivian、Lucid 和特斯拉在电动车税收抵免到期后将面临的两个问题