<p>面对现实吧——当你知道如果公司的情况发生变化，你可以出售某项投资时，说这是一项终身持有的投资是很容易的。真正的 “永恒” 交易是相对罕见的。</p>
<p>然而，有一些上市公司不仅是为长久而建，更是为无限繁荣而建。它们的股票不仅是终身投资，甚至可能改变生活。<strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 1.50%）就是其中之一。以下是原因。</p>
<h2>TSMC 是什么，以及不是</h2>
<p>如果你恰好从未听说过，顾名思义，台积电（Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing），更广为人知的是 TSMC，制造计算机芯片。事实上，你很可能是其产品的常规用户。因为它并不制造自己的品牌设计。TSMC 实际上是其他芯片公司的硅的合同制造商。<strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>英伟达</strong>（Nvidia）（NVDA -0.77%）和 <strong>高通</strong> 只是其客户中的一部分。实际上，这家公司制造了全球约三分之二的半导体，并且据报道制造了全球每十个最先进的高性能芯片中的九个。</p>
<p>几乎不需要说，没有台积电，世界的微芯片格局将会大相径庭。</p>
<p>是的，这种制造集中度对半导体行业来说是一个问题，因为行业不希望依赖单一的供应商/服务提供商——这一责任在 COVID-19 大流行期间达到了顶峰。当往返台湾的供应链崩溃时，大多数科技公司实际上陷入了困境。在此期间，一些公司试图建立自己的芯片代工厂。例如，<strong>英特尔</strong>（Intel）（INTC -1.25%）预算了 280 亿美元的初始投资，以在俄亥俄州建立一座全新的生产设施，以及另外 320 亿美元用于在亚利桑那州建造一座芯片工厂。2022 年，另有 330 亿欧元被 earmarked 用于在欧洲投资半导体研发设施。</p>
<p>然而，有一个原因是，这些计划中的支出大部分已经缩减、推迟或完全取消。也就是说，建立新的计算机芯片制造基础设施既昂贵又复杂，使得进入这一行业变得困难。</p>
<p>这种动态当然对 TSMC 继续主导业务是个好兆头。</p>
<h2>TSMC 在近期或远期没有严重放缓的迹象</h2>
<p>这并不是说 TSMC 对芯片行业的常见挑战无动于衷。举个例子：该公司的收入在 2023 年下降了超过 4%——当整个半导体行业遭遇后疫情的逆风时——导致利润同比下降了 18%。</p>
<p>竞争也在逐渐渗入。例如，尽管英特尔正在大幅缩减其成为主要半导体代工厂的计划，但关于 TSMC 客户 <strong>超微</strong>（Advanced Micro Devices）正在考虑与英特尔建立生产关系的可信传闻正在流传，而 <strong>微软</strong> 则是确认的英特尔代工客户。这并不是一个重大的收入胜利，但确实是一个高调的胜利。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU5MDUvdHJhY2tpbmctaW52ZXN0bWVudHMtd2VhbHRoLWZhbWlseS1wbGFubmluZy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU5MDUvdHJhY2tpbmctaW52ZXN0bWVudHMtd2VhbHRoLWZhbWlseS1wbGFubmluZy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>尽管如此，对新型和更好芯片的需求不仅仍在增长，而且还在加速。英特尔和其他潜在制造商无法快速建立代工厂，迫使行业继续依赖 TSMC，而后者拥有当前业务所需的生产能力。为了提供一个参考，该公司去年大约生产了 1700 万片 12 英寸（或等效）晶圆，价值约 900 亿美元。这在半导体行业中同比增长了 34%，而半导体行业协会表示，2024 年该行业仅增长了 19%。</p>
<p>当然，要归功于人工智能的崛起，这正在为计算处理器和相关微芯片创造巨大的需求。</p>
<p>问题是，这只是对近期和远期未来的一个预览，因为人工智能使得数字化一切变得简单而有利。德勤认为，全球半导体市场预计将从今年不到 7000 亿美元增长到 2030 年的 1 万亿美元，并在 2040 年达到 2 万亿美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU5MDUvMTAwMTI1LXRzbS1yZXN1bHRzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="497" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU5MDUvMTAwMTI1LXRzbS1yZXN1bHRzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：CNBC，MarketWatch，StockAnalysis，Simply Wall St. 作者绘制的图表。收入和净收入以新台币计。每股收益以美元计，反映其相对于 TSMC ADR 的相对货币调整水平。</p>
<p>当然，TSMC 将在这一增长中占据重要地位。它必须如此。</p>
<h2>成为 “聪明的人”，购买这只合理估值的成长股</h2>
<p>所以，是的——今天购买 TSMC 股票可能会让你终身受益，即使这不会在一夜之间实现。它可能会像 <strong>苹果</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 一样改变生活，长期提供超越市场的收益。</p>
<p>说到这里，也许拥有台积电长期股份的最佳理由不是定量的，而是定性的、轶事的。在八月份，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋评论道：“我认为 TSMC 是人类历史上最伟大的公司之一，任何想购买 TSMC 股票的人都是非常聪明的人。” 然后他在上个月再次重申了这一乐观态度，声称：“你无法夸大 TSMC 的魔力。”</p>
<p>这是强有力的赞美，来自一个行业内部人士，他会知道。</p>
<p>如果你感兴趣，请不要拖延。尽管 TSMC 的股票最近又创下了新高，但其估值仍合理，低于今年预期每股收益 9.85 美元的 30 倍。你不会在这样一家成长型公司中找到更低的估值，而这家公司预计将在未来许多年以稳健的两位数速度增长。</p>

台积电

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）因其在半导体行业的主导地位而被认为是一项可能改变生活的投资，该公司生产了全球约三分之二的芯片。尽管最近利润有所下降，但对先进芯片的需求正在加速增长，这主要受到人工智能崛起的推动。TSMC 的增长前景强劲，预计到 2030 年全球半导体市场将达到 1 万亿美元。今天投资 TSMC 股票可能会带来显著的长期收益，类似于过去对苹果和亚马逊等公司的成功投资</p>

<p>Let's face it -- it's easy to say a particular investment is a lifetime holding when you know you can sell it if the company's circumstances change. A true &#34;forever&#34; trade is a relatively rare thing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>面对现实吧——当你知道如果公司的情况发生变化，你可以出售某项投资时，说这是一项终身持有的投资是很容易的。真正的 “永恒” 交易是相对罕见的。</p>
</div><p>There are some publicly traded companies, however, that are not only built to last, but built to thrive indefinitely. Their stocks are not only lifetime investments, but potentially life-changing. <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 1.50%) is one of these names. Here's why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，有一些上市公司不仅是为长久而建，更是为无限繁荣而建。它们的股票不仅是终身投资，甚至可能改变生活。<strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 1.50%）就是其中之一。以下是原因。</p>
</div><h2>What TSMC is, and isn't</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>TSMC 是什么，以及不是</h2>
</div><p>On the off chance you've never heard of it, just as the name suggests, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, better known as TSMC, makes computer chips. There's a good chance you're a regular user of one of its products, in fact. See, it doesn't make its own branded designs. TSMC is instead a contracted manufacturer of other chip companies' silicon. <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.77%), and <strong>Qualcomm</strong> are just some of its customers. Indeed, this company manufactures about two-thirds of the world's total semiconductors, and reportedly makes nine out of every 10 of the planet's most advanced high-performance chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你恰好从未听说过，顾名思义，台积电（Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing），更广为人知的是 TSMC，制造计算机芯片。事实上，你很可能是其产品的常规用户。因为它并不制造自己的品牌设计。TSMC 实际上是其他芯片公司的硅的合同制造商。<strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>英伟达</strong>（Nvidia）（NVDA -0.77%）和 <strong>高通</strong> 只是其客户中的一部分。实际上，这家公司制造了全球约三分之二的半导体，并且据报道制造了全球每十个最先进的高性能芯片中的九个。</p>
</div><p>Almost needless to say, without TSMC, the world's microchip landscape would look considerably different.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几乎不需要说，没有台积电，世界的微芯片格局将会大相径庭。</p>
</div><p>Yes, this manufacturing concentration is something of a problem for the semiconductor industry, which <em>doesn't</em> want to be beholden to a single supplier/service provider -- a liability that came to a head during and because of the COVID-19 pandemic. When supply chains to and from Taiwan broke down, most technology companies were effectively dead in the water. Some of them have attempted to build their own chip foundries in the meantime. <strong>Intel</strong>(INTC -1.25%), for example, budgeted an initial investment of $28 billion to erect a brand-new production facility in Ohio, plus another $32 billion to build a chip plant in Arizona. Another 33 billion euros were earmarked for investment in a semiconductor R&amp;D facility in Europe back in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是的，这种制造集中度对半导体行业来说是一个问题，因为行业不希望依赖单一的供应商/服务提供商——这一责任在 COVID-19 大流行期间达到了顶峰。当往返台湾的供应链崩溃时，大多数科技公司实际上陷入了困境。在此期间，一些公司试图建立自己的芯片代工厂。例如，<strong>英特尔</strong>（Intel）（INTC -1.25%）预算了 280 亿美元的初始投资，以在俄亥俄州建立一座全新的生产设施，以及另外 320 亿美元用于在亚利桑那州建造一座芯片工厂。2022 年，另有 330 亿欧元被 earmarked 用于在欧洲投资半导体研发设施。</p>
</div><p>There's a reason, however, that much of this intended spending has since been scaled back, delayed, or outright canceled. That is, building new computer chipmaking infrastructure is as expensive as it is complicated, making it tough to penetrate the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，有一个原因是，这些计划中的支出大部分已经缩减、推迟或完全取消。也就是说，建立新的计算机芯片制造基础设施既昂贵又复杂，使得进入这一行业变得困难。</p>
</div><p>This dynamic, of course, bodes well for TSMC's continued dominance of the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种动态当然对 TSMC 继续主导业务是个好兆头。</p>
</div><h2>No serious slowdown for TSMC on the near <em>or</em> distant horizon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>TSMC 在近期或远期没有严重放缓的迹象</h2>
</div><p>None of this is to suggest TSMC is impervious to the chip industry's usual slings and arrows. Case in point: The company's top line fell more than 4% in 2023 -- when the entire semiconductor business ran into a post-pandemic headwind -- dragging profits 18% lower year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是说 TSMC 对芯片行业的常见挑战无动于衷。举个例子：该公司的收入在 2023 年下降了超过 4%——当整个半导体行业遭遇后疫情的逆风时——导致利润同比下降了 18%。</p>
</div><p>Competition is still creeping in, too. For example, although Intel is dramatically scaling back its plans to become a major semiconductor foundry, credible rumors that TSMC customer <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> is mulling a production relationship with Intel have been circulating, while <strong>Microsoft</strong> is a confirmed Intel foundry customer. That's not a major revenue win, but it <em>is</em> a high-profile one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>竞争也在逐渐渗入。例如，尽管英特尔正在大幅缩减其成为主要半导体代工厂的计划，但关于 TSMC 客户 <strong>超微</strong>（Advanced Micro Devices）正在考虑与英特尔建立生产关系的可信传闻正在流传，而 <strong>微软</strong> 则是确认的英特尔代工客户。这并不是一个重大的收入胜利，但确实是一个高调的胜利。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU5MDUvdHJhY2tpbmctaW52ZXN0bWVudHMtd2VhbHRoLWZhbWlseS1wbGFubmluZy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835905%2Ftracking-investments-wealth-family-planning.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, demand for new and better chips is not only still growing, but accelerating. Intel and other would-be manufacturers can't build foundries fast enough, forcing the industry to continue relying on TSMC, which has the production capacity the business needs right now. The company managed to make approximately 17 million 12-inch (or equivalent) wafers last year, for perspective, or $90 billion worth of silicon. That's up 34% year over year in an industry that the Semiconductor Industry Association says only grew by 19% in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，对新型和更好芯片的需求不仅仍在增长，而且还在加速。英特尔和其他潜在制造商无法快速建立代工厂，迫使行业继续依赖 TSMC，而后者拥有当前业务所需的生产能力。为了提供一个参考，该公司去年大约生产了 1700 万片 12 英寸（或等效）晶圆，价值约 900 亿美元。这在半导体行业中同比增长了 34%，而半导体行业协会表示，2024 年该行业仅增长了 19%。</p>
</div><p>Give credit to the rise of artificial intelligence, of course, which is creating massive demand for computing processors and related microchips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，要归功于人工智能的崛起，这正在为计算处理器和相关微芯片创造巨大的需求。</p>
</div><p>The thing is, this is just a taste of what to expect for the near and distant future now that AI is making it easy and advantageous to digitize, well, <em>everything</em>. Deloitte believes the global semiconductor market is poised to grow from just a little less than $700 billion this year to $1 trillion by 2030, en route to $2 trillion by 2040.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题是，这只是对近期和远期未来的一个预览，因为人工智能使得数字化一切变得简单而有利。德勤认为，全球半导体市场预计将从今年不到 7000 亿美元增长到 2030 年的 1 万亿美元，并在 2040 年达到 2 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU5MDUvMTAwMTI1LXRzbS1yZXN1bHRzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835905%2F100125-tsm-results.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: CNBC, MarketWatch, StockAnalysis, Simply Wall St. Chart by author. Revenue and net income are in New Taiwanese Dollars. Per-share earnings are in U.S. dollars, reflecting their relative, currency-adjusted levels to the ADR of TSMC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：CNBC，MarketWatch，StockAnalysis，Simply Wall St. 作者绘制的图表。收入和净收入以新台币计。每股收益以美元计，反映其相对于 TSMC ADR 的相对货币调整水平。</p>
</div><p>TSMC will, of course, feature prominently in that growth. It has to.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，TSMC 将在这一增长中占据重要地位。它必须如此。</p>
</div><h2>Be a &#34;smart person&#34; and buy this reasonably valued growth stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>成为 “聪明的人”，购买这只合理估值的成长股</h2>
</div><p>So, yes -- buying TSMC stock today could set you up for life, even if it's not going to do so overnight. It's likely to be life-changing in the same way that Apple and <strong>Amazon</strong> were, dishing out market-beating gains for a long, long time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以，是的——今天购买 TSMC 股票可能会让你终身受益，即使这不会在一夜之间实现。它可能会像 <strong>苹果</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 一样改变生活，长期提供超越市场的收益。</p>
</div><p>With all of that being said, perhaps the best argument for owning a long-term stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing isn't a quantitative one, but a qualitative, anecdotal one. In August, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang commented, &#34;I think TSMC is one of the greatest companies in the history of humanity, and anybody who wants to buy TSMC stock is a very smart person.&#34; Then he doubled down on that bullishness last month, exclaiming, &#34;You can't overstate the magic that is TSMC.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>说到这里，也许拥有台积电长期股份的最佳理由不是定量的，而是定性的、轶事的。在八月份，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋评论道：“我认为 TSMC 是人类历史上最伟大的公司之一，任何想购买 TSMC 股票的人都是非常聪明的人。” 然后他在上个月再次重申了这一乐观态度，声称：“你无法夸大 TSMC 的魔力。”</p>
</div><p>That's strong praise, and from an industry insider who would know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是强有力的赞美，来自一个行业内部人士，他会知道。</p>
</div><p>Just don't tarry if you're interested. Although TSMC shares recently reached yet another record high, they're still reasonably priced at less than 30 times this year's expected per-share earnings of $9.85. You're not going to find a much lower valuation from a growth company like this one, which is poised to grow at a solid double-digit pace for many, <em>many</em> more years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你感兴趣，请不要拖延。尽管 TSMC 的股票最近又创下了新高，但其估值仍合理，低于今年预期每股收益 9.85 美元的 30 倍。你不会在这样一家成长型公司中找到更低的估值，而这家公司预计将在未来许多年以稳健的两位数速度增长。</p>
</div>

Could Buying TSMC Stock Today Set You Up for Life?

- TSMC 是全球半导体制造的领导者，生产约三分之二的芯片。  
- 尽管面临竞争和市场波动，需求仍在加速增长。  
- 投资 TSMC 股票被认为是长期获利的机会。

今天购买台积电的股票能否让你一生无忧？