<p>沃伦·巴菲特成为历史上最成功投资者之一的一个品质就是他的耐心。</p>
<p>他在最近给 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A 0.80%)(BRK.B 0.68%) 股东的信中提到了等待机会的重要性。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>&#34;可以理解，真正杰出的企业很少会整体出售，但这些珍宝的小部分可以在周一到周五的华尔街上购买，并且偶尔会以廉价出售。... 通常，没有什么看起来很有吸引力。&#34;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>巴菲特愿意等待有吸引力的价格，这使得他在过去 11 个季度中出售的股票数量超过了他为伯克希尔哈撒韦购买的股票数量。因此，巴菲特现在手中拥有近 3400 亿美元的可投资现金和现金等价物（不包括铁路业务中的现金），正在寻找投资机会。</p>
<p>不幸的是，股市发出了强烈信号，表明目前可能没有很多有吸引力的机会，尤其是在伯克希尔的可投资范围内。因此，伯克希尔的现金储备不断增加。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU4MzQvYnVmZmV0dDktdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU4MzQvYnVmZmV0dDktdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>对股票投资者的重大警告</h2>
<p>在过去几年中，投资者将大型 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.01%) 股票的价格大幅推高。然而，基本面并未跟上。</p>
<p>因此，股票估值现在接近历史最高水平。巴菲特偏爱的估值指标，即美国股票市场总市值与 GDP 的比率，被称为巴菲特指标，已攀升至 200% 以上。当该指标达到这一水平时，如 1999 年和 2000 年，巴菲特表示：“你在玩火。”</p>
<p>另一个指标也发出了类似的警告，正如世纪之交时一样。希勒市盈率已超过 40。该指标取标准普尔 500 的 10 年移动平均通胀调整后收益，并将该数字除以当前指数值。唯一一次估值如此之高是在互联网泡沫期间。</p>
<h2>历史告诉我们接下来会发生什么</h2>
<p>历史非常清楚，当希勒市盈率超过 40 时会发生什么。每一次，它都产生了负的 10 年年化回报。</p>
<p>唯一的一个例外是：我们只有一次标准普尔 500 估值超过希勒市盈率 40 的历史。互联网泡沫破裂后，紧接着发生了全球金融危机，导致了所谓的 “失落的十年”。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/02eb7e1e2d158772a1e831001997fc62.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="404" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/02eb7e1e2d158772a1e831001997fc62.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>历史不会重演，但常常会有相似之处。不可否认的是，希勒市盈率与 10 年期前瞻性回报呈反比关系。因此，随着标准普尔 500 估值的持续上升，未来的预期回报变得越来越差。</p>
<p>考虑到巴菲特是一位价值投资者，并且非常偏爱大型美国股票，难怪他在过去几年中几乎没有找到可以投资的机会，因为估值不断攀升。尽管如此，这并不意味着他没有发现其他机会，这些机会可能对较小的散户投资者更有利。</p>
<h2>巴菲特 3400 亿美元警告下的隐含信息</h2>
<p>将巴菲特的立场放在背景中是很重要的。伯克希尔哈撒韦是一家市值 1 万亿美元的美国公司。其可交易的股权投资组合超过 3000 亿美元。当你将其 3400 亿美元的现金头寸与之结合时，几乎没有其他投资基金能像伯克希尔那样拥有如此多的现金可供运用。这极大地限制了投资选择。</p>
<p>巴菲特的可投资范围仅限于市场上最大的股票。由于他主要关注美国股票，这意味着主要是标准普尔 500 公司。</p>
<p>尽管如此，他最近在标准普尔 500 之外发现了几个优秀的投资机会。他显著投资了五家日本贸易公司，包括在 8 月份向伯克希尔的投资中增加了超过 4000 万美元。尽管日本股市在近年来表现强劲，但希勒市盈率仍远低于其 25 年平均水平。这使得希勒在他最近的市场预测中维持了对日本股市未来 10 年相对强劲回报的预期。</p>
<p>即使在美国，投资者仍然有很多机会。虽然标准普尔 500 的估值上升，但中型股和小型股指数并没有随之上涨。更重要的是，少数公司推动了标准普尔 500 市盈率的上升，而收益并没有相应跟上。</p>
<p>在标准普尔 500 中仍然有相当数量的股票具有吸引力的估值。巴菲特在机会出现时会进行购买，尤其是在上个季度购买了 <strong>联合健康</strong>，以及其他九只股票，其中大多数处于巴菲特的可投资范围的较小端。</p>
<p>投资者需要注意的信息是，目前美国许多最大的公司看起来都很昂贵。这对标准普尔 500 等热门指数的未来预期回报造成了压力。但如果你超越美国最大的公司，仍然有很多吸引力的机会，可能会带来比最常用的基准指数更好的回报。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

南方两倍做多伯克希尔

<p>沃伦·巴菲特最近给伯克希尔哈撒韦股东的信中强调了他在投资方面的耐心，目前由于股市缺乏吸引人的机会，他持有近 3400 亿美元的现金。随着股票估值接近历史高位，巴菲特指标和希勒市盈率的数据显示，历史趋势表明可能会出现负回报。尽管如此，巴菲特在标准普尔 500 指数之外找到了投资机会，特别是在日本的贸易公司，并继续在美国市场中寻找小型公司的价值</p>

<p>One of the qualities that makes Warren Buffett one of the most successful investors in history is his patience.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特成为历史上最成功投资者之一的一个品质就是他的耐心。</p>
</div><p>He noted the importance of waiting for opportunities in his most recent letter to <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A 0.80%)(BRK.B 0.68%) shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他在最近给 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A 0.80%)(BRK.B 0.68%) 股东的信中提到了等待机会的重要性。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>&#34;Understandably, really outstanding businesses are <em>very</em> seldom offered in their entirety, but small fractions of these gems can be purchased Monday through Friday on Wall Street and, very occasionally, they sell at bargain prices. ... Often, nothing looks compelling.&#34;</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>&#34;可以理解，真正杰出的企业很少会整体出售，但这些珍宝的小部分可以在周一到周五的华尔街上购买，并且偶尔会以廉价出售。... 通常，没有什么看起来很有吸引力。&#34;</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Buffett's willingness to wait for compelling prices has led him to sell more stocks than he bought for Berkshire Hathaway in each of the last 11 quarters. As a result, Buffett now sits on nearly $340 billion of investable cash and cash equivalents (excluding cash held in the railway business), looking for an investment opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特愿意等待有吸引力的价格，这使得他在过去 11 个季度中出售的股票数量超过了他为伯克希尔哈撒韦购买的股票数量。因此，巴菲特现在手中拥有近 3400 亿美元的可投资现金和现金等价物（不包括铁路业务中的现金），正在寻找投资机会。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, the stock market is sending a strong signal that there might not be very many compelling opportunities to find right now, and certainly not in Berkshire's investable universe. As a result, Berkshire's cash pile keeps growing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，股市发出了强烈信号，表明目前可能没有很多有吸引力的机会，尤其是在伯克希尔的可投资范围内。因此，伯克希尔的现金储备不断增加。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU4MzQvYnVmZmV0dDktdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835834%2Fbuffett9-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>The massive warning to stock investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对股票投资者的重大警告</h2>
</div><p>Over the last few years, investors have pushed the prices of large-cap <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.01%) stocks significantly higher. However, fundamentals have failed to keep up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几年中，投资者将大型 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.01%) 股票的价格大幅推高。然而，基本面并未跟上。</p>
</div><p>As a result, stock valuations are now approaching record highs. Buffett's preferred valuation indicator, total U.S. stock market value divided by GDP, dubbed the Buffett Indicator, has climbed above 200%. When the indicator reaches that level, as it did in 1999 and 2000, Buffett says, &#34;You are playing with fire.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，股票估值现在接近历史最高水平。巴菲特偏爱的估值指标，即美国股票市场总市值与 GDP 的比率，被称为巴菲特指标，已攀升至 200% 以上。当该指标达到这一水平时，如 1999 年和 2000 年，巴菲特表示：“你在玩火。”</p>
</div><p>Another indicator is also flashing similar warnings as the turn of the century. The Shiller P/E ratio has topped 40. The metric takes the 10-year moving average of inflation-adjusted earnings for the S&amp;P 500, and divides that number into the current index value. The only other time valuations were this high was amid the dot-com bubble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个指标也发出了类似的警告，正如世纪之交时一样。希勒市盈率已超过 40。该指标取标准普尔 500 的 10 年移动平均通胀调整后收益，并将该数字除以当前指数值。唯一一次估值如此之高是在互联网泡沫期间。</p>
</div><h2>Here's what history says happens next</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>历史告诉我们接下来会发生什么</h2>
</div><p>History is quite clear about what happens when the Shiller PE has exceeded 40. Every single time, it has produced negative 10-year annualized returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史非常清楚，当希勒市盈率超过 40 时会发生什么。每一次，它都产生了负的 10 年年化回报。</p>
</div><p>There's just one caveat: We've only ever had one prior period where the S&amp;P 500 valuation climbed above a Shiller PE of 40. The dot-com bubble popping was followed in quick succession by the global financial crisis, which led to the so-called &#34;lost decade.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>唯一的一个例外是：我们只有一次标准普尔 500 估值超过希勒市盈率 40 的历史。互联网泡沫破裂后，紧接着发生了全球金融危机，导致了所谓的 “失落的十年”。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/02eb7e1e2d158772a1e831001997fc62.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/02eb7e1e2d158772a1e831001997fc62.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. And there's no denying the fact that the Shiller P/E ratio is inversely correlated with 10-year forward returns. As such, as the S&amp;P 500 valuation continues to climb higher, the expected returns going forward become worse and worse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史不会重演，但常常会有相似之处。不可否认的是，希勒市盈率与 10 年期前瞻性回报呈反比关系。因此，随着标准普尔 500 估值的持续上升，未来的预期回报变得越来越差。</p>
</div><p>Considering Buffett is a value investor and heavily prefers large-cap U.S. equities, it's no wonder he's found very little to invest in over the last few years as valuations climbed. That said, that doesn't mean there aren't other opportunities that he's found that could be even more beneficial for smaller retail investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到巴菲特是一位价值投资者，并且非常偏爱大型美国股票，难怪他在过去几年中几乎没有找到可以投资的机会，因为估值不断攀升。尽管如此，这并不意味着他没有发现其他机会，这些机会可能对较小的散户投资者更有利。</p>
</div><h2>The hidden message under Buffett's $340 billion warning</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特 3400 亿美元警告下的隐含信息</h2>
</div><p>It's important to put Buffett's position in context. Berkshire Hathaway is a $1 trillion U.S. company. Its marketable equity portfolio exceeds $300 billion. And when you combine that with its $340 billion cash position, there's practically no other investment fund with as much cash to move as Berkshire. That's severely limiting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将巴菲特的立场放在背景中是很重要的。伯克希尔哈撒韦是一家市值 1 万亿美元的美国公司。其可交易的股权投资组合超过 3000 亿美元。当你将其 3400 亿美元的现金头寸与之结合时，几乎没有其他投资基金能像伯克希尔那样拥有如此多的现金可供运用。这极大地限制了投资选择。</p>
</div><p>Buffett's investable universe is only the biggest stocks in the market. And since he's heavily focused on U.S. stocks, that means mostly S&amp;P 500 companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特的可投资范围仅限于市场上最大的股票。由于他主要关注美国股票，这意味着主要是标准普尔 500 公司。</p>
</div><p>That said, he's found several excellent opportunities outside the S&amp;P 500 recently. He's notably invested billions in the five Japanese trading houses, including adding over $40 million to Berkshire's investments in August. Despite the strong performance of the Japanese stock market in recent years, the Shiller P/E ratio remains well below its 25-year average. That led Shiller to maintain his projection for relatively strong returns from the Japanese stock market over the next 10 years in his most recent market forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，他最近在标准普尔 500 之外发现了几个优秀的投资机会。他显著投资了五家日本贸易公司，包括在 8 月份向伯克希尔的投资中增加了超过 4000 万美元。尽管日本股市在近年来表现强劲，但希勒市盈率仍远低于其 25 年平均水平。这使得希勒在他最近的市场预测中维持了对日本股市未来 10 年相对强劲回报的预期。</p>
</div><p>Even in the U.S., there remain ample opportunities for investors. While the S&amp;P 500 has seen its valuation climb, the mid-cap and small-cap index hasn't followed suit. What's more, a handful of companies have driven the S&amp;P 500 P/E ratio higher, while earnings haven't necessarily followed suit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在美国，投资者仍然有很多机会。虽然标准普尔 500 的估值上升，但中型股和小型股指数并没有随之上涨。更重要的是，少数公司推动了标准普尔 500 市盈率的上升，而收益并没有相应跟上。</p>
</div><p>There are still a good number of stocks with compelling valuations in the S&amp;P 500 itself. Buffett has been a buyer when the opportunity arises, notably buying <strong>UnitedHealth</strong> last quarter, along with nine other stocks, most of which were on the smaller end of the Buffett's investable universe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在标准普尔 500 中仍然有相当数量的股票具有吸引力的估值。巴菲特在机会出现时会进行购买，尤其是在上个季度购买了 <strong>联合健康</strong>，以及其他九只股票，其中大多数处于巴菲特的可投资范围的较小端。</p>
</div><p>The message for investors to take away is that many of the biggest companies in the United States look expensive right now. That's weighing on the future expected returns of popular indexes like the S&amp;P 500. But if you look beyond the biggest names in the U.S., there are still a lot of compelling opportunities that could produce better returns than the most commonly used benchmark index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者需要注意的信息是，目前美国许多最大的公司看起来都很昂贵。这对标准普尔 500 等热门指数的未来预期回报造成了压力。但如果你超越美国最大的公司，仍然有很多吸引力的机会，可能会带来比最常用的基准指数更好的回报。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett Is Sending Investors a $340 Billion Warning. History Says the Stock Market Will Do This Next.

- 巴菲特强调耐心的重要性，等待投资机会。  
- 目前市场估值接近历史高点，未来回报预期下降。  
- 尽管大型股昂贵，仍有中小型股和日本市场的投资机会。

沃伦·巴菲特向投资者发出 3400 亿美元的警告。历史显示股市接下来可能会有这样的表现