<p>在 <strong>美光科技</strong>（MU 2.28%）于 9 月 23 日发布财报之前，这家内存芯片制造商的股票已经在本月取得了令人印象深刻的涨幅。强劲的业绩和指引最终推动股价在 9 月末进一步上涨。根据标普全球市场情报提供的数据，美光股票上个月上涨了 40.6%，这主要得益于对人工智能数据中心的强劲需求。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzYyODgvcmFtLWRyYW0tc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci1jaGlwLW1hbnVmYWN0dXJpbmctMS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzYyODgvcmFtLWRyYW0tc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci1jaGlwLW1hbnVmYWN0dXJpbmctMS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>争夺人工智能计算能力</h2>
<p>内存芯片市场正在发生与人工智能相关的两件事情。首先，对高带宽内存的需求正在激增，这是一种对人工智能加速器至关重要的特殊动态随机存取内存。与 <strong>OpenAI</strong>、<strong>Oracle</strong>、<strong>Nvidia</strong> 和其他科技巨头达成的巨额交易，将需要大量的 HBM 芯片来建设庞大的人工智能数据中心。</p>
<p>美光在 2025 财年第四季度（截至 8 月 28 日）销售了价值 20 亿美元的 HBM 芯片，并正在努力将其下一代 HBM4 芯片推向市场。几乎所有 2026 日历年的 HBM3 芯片供应都已被预定，公司正在与客户讨论 HBM4 的承诺。目前，美光轻松销售其能够生产的每一块 HBM。</p>
<p>第二个发展与标准 DRAM 内存芯片有关。虽然人工智能数据中心也需要商品服务器 DRAM 芯片，但包括美光在内的制造商正在积极优先生产 HBM。尽管对个人电脑和智能手机的需求相对疲软，这两者都需要 DRAM 芯片，但整体供应现在已经紧张。这种情况推高了价格，进一步提升了美光的利润。</p>
<p>这些趋势共同推动美光在第四季度的收入同比增长 46%，达到 113 亿美元。非公认会计原则下的毛利率扩大了超过 9 个百分点，达到 45.7%，调整后的每股收益翻了一番以上。</p>
<p>美光预计这两种趋势将在 2026 财年继续。公司预计在第一季度产生约 125 亿美元的收入，非公认会计原则下的毛利率大约为 51.5%。这一毛利率在美光历史上是非常高的。</p>
<h2>美光股票看起来便宜，但要小心</h2>
<p>根据分析师对 2026 财年调整后每股收益的平均预期，美光的市盈率仅略高于 11。这对于一家快速增长并从人工智能热潮中受益匪浅的公司来说，可能看起来非常便宜，但投资者需要谨慎。</p>
<p>内存芯片市场是周期性的，价格主要由供需决定。每一次需求超过供应的繁荣，都会伴随着随之而来的萧条。美光在繁荣时期赚取大量利润，但在严重的经济低迷期间，利润可能会深陷负值。</p>
<p><strong>亚马逊</strong> 创始人杰夫·贝索斯在周五称人工智能为泡沫，加入了许多高调人士的行列，警告过度热情。如果人工智能基础设施被过度建设，这看起来很可能，因为正在进行巨额投资，一旦清算到来，对内存芯片的需求可能会骤降。这是美光股票面临的重大风险。尽管目前的情况看起来非常美好，但经济低迷总会到来。</p>

美光科技

<p>美光科技的股票在九月份上涨了 40.6%，这得益于强劲的收益和对人工智能数据中心的旺盛需求。该公司在第四季度报告了同比增长 46% 的收入，达到 113 亿美元，毛利率为 45.7%。美光科技正在优先生产高带宽内存（HBM），并且有显著的销售和未来承诺。然而，分析师警告内存芯片市场的周期性特征，指出对人工智能基础设施的过度投资可能会导致内存芯片需求的下滑</p>

<p>Even before <strong>Micron</strong>'s (MU 2.28%) earnings report on Sept. 23, shares of the memory chip manufacturer had already logged an impressive month-to-date gain. Strong results and guidance ultimately led the stock even higher to close out September. Micron stock gained 40.6% last month, according to data provided by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, largely thanks to booming demand for artificial intelligence data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 <strong>美光科技</strong>（MU 2.28%）于 9 月 23 日发布财报之前，这家内存芯片制造商的股票已经在本月取得了令人印象深刻的涨幅。强劲的业绩和指引最终推动股价在 9 月末进一步上涨。根据标普全球市场情报提供的数据，美光股票上个月上涨了 40.6%，这主要得益于对人工智能数据中心的强劲需求。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzYyODgvcmFtLWRyYW0tc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci1jaGlwLW1hbnVmYWN0dXJpbmctMS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F836288%2Fram-dram-semiconductor-chip-manufacturing-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Scrambling for AI computing capacity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>争夺人工智能计算能力</h2>
</div><p>Two things related to AI are happening within the memory chip market. First, demand for high-bandwidth memory, a special type of dynamic random-access memory critical for AI accelerators, is exploding. Mega-deals involving OpenAI, <strong>Oracle</strong>, <strong>Nvidia</strong>, and other tech giants to build massive AI data centers will require equally massive quantities of HBM chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>内存芯片市场正在发生与人工智能相关的两件事情。首先，对高带宽内存的需求正在激增，这是一种对人工智能加速器至关重要的特殊动态随机存取内存。与 <strong>OpenAI</strong>、<strong>Oracle</strong>、<strong>Nvidia</strong> 和其他科技巨头达成的巨额交易，将需要大量的 HBM 芯片来建设庞大的人工智能数据中心。</p>
</div><p>Micron sold $2 billion worth of HBM chips in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, which ended on Aug. 28, and it's working on bringing its next-generation HBM4 chips to market. Nearly all of its HBM3 chip supply for calendar 2026 is spoken for, and the company is talking to customers about HBM4 commitments. For the time being, Micron is easily selling every bit of HBM that it can make.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光在 2025 财年第四季度（截至 8 月 28 日）销售了价值 20 亿美元的 HBM 芯片，并正在努力将其下一代 HBM4 芯片推向市场。几乎所有 2026 日历年的 HBM3 芯片供应都已被预定，公司正在与客户讨论 HBM4 的承诺。目前，美光轻松销售其能够生产的每一块 HBM。</p>
</div><p>The second development is related to standard DRAM memory chips. While AI data centers also need commodity server DRAM chips, manufacturers including Micron are aggressively prioritizing HBM production. Even with somewhat weak demand for PCs and smartphones, which both require DRAM chips, overall supply is now tight. This situation has pushed up prices, boosting Micron's bottom line further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二个发展与标准 DRAM 内存芯片有关。虽然人工智能数据中心也需要商品服务器 DRAM 芯片，但包括美光在内的制造商正在积极优先生产 HBM。尽管对个人电脑和智能手机的需求相对疲软，这两者都需要 DRAM 芯片，但整体供应现在已经紧张。这种情况推高了价格，进一步提升了美光的利润。</p>
</div><p>Together, these trends pushed up Micron's revenue by 46% year over year in the fourth quarter to $11.3 billion. Non-GAAP gross margin expanded by more than 9 percentage points to 45.7%, and adjusted earnings per share more than doubled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些趋势共同推动美光在第四季度的收入同比增长 46%，达到 113 亿美元。非公认会计原则下的毛利率扩大了超过 9 个百分点，达到 45.7%，调整后的每股收益翻了一番以上。</p>
</div><p>Micron expects both trends to continue into fiscal 2026. The company expects to generate around $12.5 billion in revenue during the first quarter, along with a non-GAAP gross margin of roughly 51.5%. That gross margin is historically high for Micron.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光预计这两种趋势将在 2026 财年继续。公司预计在第一季度产生约 125 亿美元的收入，非公认会计原则下的毛利率大约为 51.5%。这一毛利率在美光历史上是非常高的。</p>
</div><h2>Micron stock looks cheap, but be careful</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美光股票看起来便宜，但要小心</h2>
</div><p>Based on the average analyst estimate for fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share, Micron trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of just above 11. That may look incredibly inexpensive for a company growing so quickly and benefiting so greatly from the AI boom, but investors need to be careful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据分析师对 2026 财年调整后每股收益的平均预期，美光的市盈率仅略高于 11。这对于一家快速增长并从人工智能热潮中受益匪浅的公司来说，可能看起来非常便宜，但投资者需要谨慎。</p>
</div><p>The memory chip market is cyclical, and pricing is largely determined by supply and demand. Every single boom, marked by demand outpacing supply, has been followed by a bust. Micron makes a lot of money during booms, but the bottom line can plunge deep into negative territory during severe downturns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>内存芯片市场是周期性的，价格主要由供需决定。每一次需求超过供应的繁荣，都会伴随着随之而来的萧条。美光在繁荣时期赚取大量利润，但在严重的经济低迷期间，利润可能会深陷负值。</p>
</div><p><strong>Amazon</strong> founder Jeff Bezos called AI a bubble on Friday, joining a chorus of high-profile voices warning of overexuberance. If AI infrastructure is overbuilt, which looks likely given the massive investments being made, demand for memory chips could fall off a cliff once the reckoning arrives. That's the big risk with Micron stock. Despite how amazing things look right now, a downturn is always coming.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong> 创始人杰夫·贝索斯在周五称人工智能为泡沫，加入了许多高调人士的行列，警告过度热情。如果人工智能基础设施被过度建设，这看起来很可能，因为正在进行巨额投资，一旦清算到来，对内存芯片的需求可能会骤降。这是美光股票面临的重大风险。尽管目前的情况看起来非常美好，但经济低迷总会到来。</p>
</div>

Why Micron Stock Exploded 40% Higher in September

- 美光公司在 9 月份股价上涨 40.6%，受 AI 数据中心需求推动。  
- 第四季度营收同比增长 46%，达到 113 亿美元，毛利率达 45.7%。  
- 投资者需警惕记忆芯片市场周期性波动，可能面临需求骤降风险。  

为什么美光科技的股票在九月份飙升了 40%