<p>在这篇深入分析中，我们将探讨如何利用期货市场中金属的日内反复波动。参考篮子包括几个基础资产，但重点将放在主要资产上：黄金、白银、铜和铂金，这些市场具有高流动性和广泛的二级市场流通。</p>
<p>所采用的方法基于所谓的 “偏差” 策略，这涉及在交易时段的特定时间进出市场。</p>
<p>与趋势跟随或均值回归逻辑不同，偏差策略不依赖于技术指标或特定价格水平。术语_偏差_指的是一种倾向于重复的行为，一种在特定时间框架内出现的市场习惯。正是在这些统计上有利的时间窗口内，该策略才会下单。</p>
<p>当然，并非所有市场对这种方法的反应都相同。为了验证这种反复出现的模式，我们将使用 Unger Academy®开发的软件 Bias Finder™，该软件旨在检测历史价格序列中的重复行为和模式。</p>
<h2>系统开发与市场偏差分析</h2>
<p>首次测试在黄金市场进行，黄金被视为整个金属行业的基准。如果结果令人鼓舞，分析将扩展到其他相关工具。</p>
<p><em>图 1. 使用 Bias Finder™的黄金日内偏差</em></p>
<p>图 1 显示了黄金的平均日内表现，通过几条对应不同时间段的曲线表示。蓝线显示了整体轮廓，基于过去 15 年（2010-2025）的波动。此外，还有按三年间隔划分的曲线：2010-2013、2014-2017、2018-2021，最后是 2022-2025。</p>
<p>这种时间框架的细分有助于澄清偏差（即市场的反复行为）是否保持稳定或随着时间发生变化。</p>
<p>在黄金的情况下，各条曲线几乎总是显示出相似的模式：在夜间（从凌晨 2 点到上午晚些时候）出现疲软阶段，随后在下午反弹，并在接下来的夜晚恢复下行周期。</p>
<p>基于这一证据，策略随后被正式化。操作规则要求在上午 10 点（纽约交易时段）进入多头头寸，并在第二天凌晨 2 点开设空头头寸。空头入场自动平掉之前开设的多头头寸，反之亦然：开设多头交易平掉空头头寸（图 2）。</p>
<p><em>图 2. 黄金的多空交易交替示例</em></p>
<h2>黄金偏差交易策略的结果</h2>
<p>所获得的结果总体上是积极的。如图 3 所示，回测的利润曲线确认了 Bias Finder™提供的见解的有效性，强化了这一方法具有实际操作潜力的观点。</p>
<p><em>图 3. 应用于黄金期货的偏差策略的权益曲线</em></p>
<p><em>图 4. 应用于黄金期货的偏差策略的总交易分析</em></p>
<h2>应用于白银、铂金和铜的偏差交易策略的结果</h2>
<p>此时，作为自然的下一步，策略将在其他主要金属上进行测试，以评估在黄金上观察到的行为是否也反映在相关市场中。</p>
<p>从图 5、6 和 7 所示的结果分析中可以看出，黄金上识别出的偏差也倾向于在白银、铂金和铜上复制。这些工具的动态实际上与黄金非常相似，部分反映了其行为，从而确认了整个金属行业中存在持久模式的假设。</p>
<p><em>图 5. 应用于白银期货的偏差策略的权益曲线</em></p>
<p><em>图 6. 应用于铂金期货的偏差策略的权益曲线</em></p>
<p><em>图 7. 应用于铜期货的偏差策略的权益曲线</em></p>
<h2>针对金属偏差交易系统进一步发展的想法</h2>
<p>迄今为止取得的结果表明，金属的偏差可以作为构建系统策略的有趣基础。然而，下一步并不仅仅是停留在这里，而是探索可能的改进，以提高操作质量，特别是在平均交易规模方面，正如在短期市场暴露的策略中常常发生的那样，这往往是薄弱环节。</p>
<p>潜在的改进领域包括应用操作过滤器，例如：</p>
<ul>
<li>使用特定的星期几，优先考虑那些历史上与偏差更一致的日子；</li>
<li>选择反复出现的市场模式，如一系列的牛市或熊市；</li>
<li>仅在高或低波动性阶段激活系统，具体取决于哪个历史背景提供了最佳优势。</li>
</ul>
<p>另一个自然的发展是引入止损和止盈机制，这是管理风险和提高系统在实时交易条件下稳定性的基本工具。</p>
<p>这些不是最终规则，而是为那些希望超越探索阶段并测试更强大方法的人提供的实用想法，同时始终保持偏差逻辑作为基础。</p>
<h2>关于金属偏差交易系统的最终思考</h2>
<p>引入过滤器和附加条件可能会降低整体利润。然而，这将使金属的偏差方法在实时交易中更具吸引力，因为即使只有几个小时的每日市场暴露，平均交易也可以达到足够稳健的水平。</p>
<p>从这次分析中得出的一个关键见解是多资产验证的重要性。在多个相关市场（如黄金、白银、铜和铂金）上测试相同的逻辑，有助于区分真实优势和偶然结果。因此，想法的可复制性代表了一种增强策略信心的稳健性。</p>
<p>此外，这种验证并不限于金属行业：它可以扩展到许多其他领域。例如，考虑一种应用于广泛股票集的策略。由于股票工具往往以相似的方式波动，因此在多个指数成分上测试一个想法成为衡量其一致性的有效方法。</p>
<p>总之，日内偏差提供了有趣的操作线索，并为自动化系统的发展提供了肥沃的土壤。然而，真正的关键在于通过实现足够大的平均交易量，使策略具备可交易性。</p>
<p>下次再见，祝交易愉快！</p>
<p>安德烈亚·翁格</p>

<p>本分析探讨了贵金属期货的交易策略，重点关注黄金、白银、铂金和铜。它采用 “偏向” 策略，利用日内市场行为的反复出现，而不依赖技术指标。对黄金的初步测试显示出夜间持续疲软和下午强劲的模式，从而形成了一种正式的交易策略。结果表明所有金属的表现均为正面，暗示出一种持续的模式。未来的发展可能包括操作过滤器和风险管理工具，以提高交易的有效性</p>

<p>In this in-depth analysis, we’ll examine how to exploit recurring intraday movements in futures markets for metals. The reference basket includes several underlying assets, but the focus will be on the main ones: Gold, Silver, Copper, and Platinum, markets characterized by high liquidity and wide circulation on the secondary market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这篇深入分析中，我们将探讨如何利用期货市场中金属的日内反复波动。参考篮子包括几个基础资产，但重点将放在主要资产上：黄金、白银、铜和铂金，这些市场具有高流动性和广泛的二级市场流通。</p>
</div><p>The approach used is based on so-called &#34;bias&#34; strategies, which involve entering and exiting the market at specific times of the session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所采用的方法基于所谓的 “偏差” 策略，这涉及在交易时段的特定时间进出市场。</p>
</div><p>Unlike trend-following or mean-reverting logics, bias strategies do not rely on technical indicators or specific price levels. The term <em>bias</em> refers to a behavior that tends to repeat itself, a kind of market habit that emerges during specific time frames. It is precisely during these statistically favorable time windows that the strategy places its orders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与趋势跟随或均值回归逻辑不同，偏差策略不依赖于技术指标或特定价格水平。术语_偏差_指的是一种倾向于重复的行为，一种在特定时间框架内出现的市场习惯。正是在这些统计上有利的时间窗口内，该策略才会下单。</p>
</div><p>Naturally, not all markets react the same way to this type of approach. To verify the presence of such recurring patterns, we'll use software developed by Unger Academy®, the Bias Finder™, designed to detect repeated behaviors and patterns within historical price series.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，并非所有市场对这种方法的反应都相同。为了验证这种反复出现的模式，我们将使用 Unger Academy®开发的软件 Bias Finder™，该软件旨在检测历史价格序列中的重复行为和模式。</p>
</div><h2>System Development and Market Bias Analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>系统开发与市场偏差分析</h2>
</div><p>The first test is conducted on the gold market, considered the benchmark for the entire metals sector. If the results prove encouraging, the analysis will be extended to other closely related instruments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首次测试在黄金市场进行，黄金被视为整个金属行业的基准。如果结果令人鼓舞，分析将扩展到其他相关工具。</p>
</div><p><em>Figure 1. Intraday bias of Gold using Bias Finder™</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图 1. 使用 Bias Finder™的黄金日内偏差</em></p>
</div><p>Figure 1 shows the average intraday performance of Gold, represented through several curves corresponding to distinct time periods. The blue line shows the overall profile, built from the movements of the past 15 years (2010–2025). In addition to this, there are curves divided into three-year intervals: 2010–2013, 2014–2017, 2018–2021, and finally 2022–2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图 1 显示了黄金的平均日内表现，通过几条对应不同时间段的曲线表示。蓝线显示了整体轮廓，基于过去 15 年（2010-2025）的波动。此外，还有按三年间隔划分的曲线：2010-2013、2014-2017、2018-2021，最后是 2022-2025。</p>
</div><p>This segmentation into time frames helps clarify whether the bias (i.e., the recurring behavior of the market) has remained stable or has undergone changes over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种时间框架的细分有助于澄清偏差（即市场的反复行为）是否保持稳定或随着时间发生变化。</p>
</div><p>In the case of gold, the various curves almost always show a similar pattern: a phase of weakness during the night hours (from 2:00 a.m. to late morning), followed by a rebound in the afternoon and a resumption of the downward cycle the following night.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在黄金的情况下，各条曲线几乎总是显示出相似的模式：在夜间（从凌晨 2 点到上午晚些时候）出现疲软阶段，随后在下午反弹，并在接下来的夜晚恢复下行周期。</p>
</div><p>Based on this evidence, the strategy is then formalized. The operational rules call for entering a long position at 10:00 a.m. (New York session time) and opening a short position at 2:00 a.m. the following day. The short entry automatically closes the previously opened long position, and vice versa: the opening of a long trade closes the short position (Figure 2).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于这一证据，策略随后被正式化。操作规则要求在上午 10 点（纽约交易时段）进入多头头寸，并在第二天凌晨 2 点开设空头头寸。空头入场自动平掉之前开设的多头头寸，反之亦然：开设多头交易平掉空头头寸（图 2）。</p>
</div><p><em>Figure 2. Example of alternating long and short trades on Gold</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图 2. 黄金的多空交易交替示例</em></p>
</div><h2>Results of the Bias Trading Strategy on Gold</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黄金偏差交易策略的结果</h2>
</div><p>The results obtained are overall positive. As shown in Figure 3, the profit curve from the backtest confirms the validity of the insights provided by the Bias Finder™, reinforcing the idea that this approach holds real operational potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所获得的结果总体上是积极的。如图 3 所示，回测的利润曲线确认了 Bias Finder™提供的见解的有效性，强化了这一方法具有实际操作潜力的观点。</p>
</div><p><em>Figure 3. Equity line of the bias strategy applied to Gold Futures</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图 3. 应用于黄金期货的偏差策略的权益曲线</em></p>
</div><p><em>Figure 4. Total trade analysis of the bias strategy applied to Gold Futures</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图 4. 应用于黄金期货的偏差策略的总交易分析</em></p>
</div><h2>Results of the Bias Trading Strategy <strong>on Silver, Platinum, and Copper</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>应用于白银、铂金和铜的偏差交易策略的结果</h2>
</div><p>At this point, as a natural next step, the strategy is tested on the other main metals to assess whether the behavior observed on Gold is also reflected in closely related markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此时，作为自然的下一步，策略将在其他主要金属上进行测试，以评估在黄金上观察到的行为是否也反映在相关市场中。</p>
</div><p>From the analysis of the results shown in Figures 5, 6, and 7, it emerges that the bias identified on Gold also tends to replicate on Silver, Platinum, and Copper. These instruments, in fact, display dynamics closely resembling those of Gold, partially mirroring its behavior and thus confirming the hypothesis of a persistent pattern across the entire metals sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从图 5、6 和 7 所示的结果分析中可以看出，黄金上识别出的偏差也倾向于在白银、铂金和铜上复制。这些工具的动态实际上与黄金非常相似，部分反映了其行为，从而确认了整个金属行业中存在持久模式的假设。</p>
</div><p><em>Figure 5. Equity line of the bias strategy applied to Silver Futures</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图 5. 应用于白银期货的偏差策略的权益曲线</em></p>
</div><p><em>Figure 6. Equity line of the bias strategy applied to Platinum Futures</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图 6. 应用于铂金期货的偏差策略的权益曲线</em></p>
</div><p><em>Figure 7. Equity line of the bias strategy applied to Copper Futures</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图 7. 应用于铜期货的偏差策略的权益曲线</em></p>
</div><h2>Ideas for Further Development of the Bias Trading System on Metals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>针对金属偏差交易系统进一步发展的想法</h2>
</div><p>The results achieved so far show that bias on metals can serve as an interesting foundation for building systematic strategies. However, the next step isn’t simply to stop here, but to explore possible improvements to increase operational quality, particularly in terms of average trade size, which, as often happens in strategies with short market exposure, tends to be the weak point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迄今为止取得的结果表明，金属的偏差可以作为构建系统策略的有趣基础。然而，下一步并不仅仅是停留在这里，而是探索可能的改进，以提高操作质量，特别是在平均交易规模方面，正如在短期市场暴露的策略中常常发生的那样，这往往是薄弱环节。</p>
</div><p>Among the potential areas for improvement are the application of operational filters, such as:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>潜在的改进领域包括应用操作过滤器，例如：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Using specific days of the week, favoring those that have historically aligned more consistently with the bias;</li>
<li>Selecting recurring market patterns, like sequences of bullish or bearish days;</li>
<li>Activating the system only during phases of high or low volatility, depending on which historical context offered the best edge.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>使用特定的星期几，优先考虑那些历史上与偏差更一致的日子；</li>
<li>选择反复出现的市场模式，如一系列的牛市或熊市；</li>
<li>仅在高或低波动性阶段激活系统，具体取决于哪个历史背景提供了最佳优势。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Another natural development would be the introduction of stop-loss and take-profit mechanisms, essential tools to manage risk and improve the system’s stability in live trading conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个自然的发展是引入止损和止盈机制，这是管理风险和提高系统在实时交易条件下稳定性的基本工具。</p>
</div><p>These are not definitive rules but rather practical ideas for those looking to go beyond the exploratory phase and test more robust approaches, while always maintaining the bias logic as the foundation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些不是最终规则，而是为那些希望超越探索阶段并测试更强大方法的人提供的实用想法，同时始终保持偏差逻辑作为基础。</p>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts on the Bias Trading System on Metals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关于金属偏差交易系统的最终思考</h2>
</div><p>Introducing filters and additional conditions would likely reduce overall profits. However, this would make the bias approach on metals more appealing for live trading purposes, given that, even with just a few hours of daily market exposure, the average trade could reach sufficiently solid levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>引入过滤器和附加条件可能会降低整体利润。然而，这将使金属的偏差方法在实时交易中更具吸引力，因为即使只有几个小时的每日市场暴露，平均交易也可以达到足够稳健的水平。</p>
</div><p>A key insight that emerged from this analysis is the importance of multi-asset validation. Testing the same logic on multiple related markets, such as gold, silver, copper, and platinum, helps distinguish between a real edge and a result born from chance. The replicability of the idea, therefore, represents a form of robustness that increases confidence in the strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从这次分析中得出的一个关键见解是多资产验证的重要性。在多个相关市场（如黄金、白银、铜和铂金）上测试相同的逻辑，有助于区分真实优势和偶然结果。因此，想法的可复制性代表了一种增强策略信心的稳健性。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, this type of validation is not limited to the metals sector: it can be extended to many other areas. Consider, for example, a strategy applied to a wide set of stocks. Since equity instruments tend to move in similar ways, testing an idea across multiple components of an index becomes an effective method to measure its consistency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，这种验证并不限于金属行业：它可以扩展到许多其他领域。例如，考虑一种应用于广泛股票集的策略。由于股票工具往往以相似的方式波动，因此在多个指数成分上测试一个想法成为衡量其一致性的有效方法。</p>
</div><p>In conclusion, intraday biases offer interesting operational cues and represent fertile ground for the development of automated systems. What really makes the difference, however, is the ability to make the strategy tradable by achieving a sufficiently large average trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总之，日内偏差提供了有趣的操作线索，并为自动化系统的发展提供了肥沃的土壤。然而，真正的关键在于通过实现足够大的平均交易量，使策略具备可交易性。</p>
</div><p>Until next time, happy trading!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下次再见，祝交易愉快！</p>
</div><p>Andrea Unger</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>安德烈亚·翁格</p>
</div>

贵金属期货市场的偏见：黄金、白银、铂金和铜的交易系统