<p>在华尔街经营对冲基金的亿万富翁是世界上最聪明的投资者之一。他们拥有数十年的专业交易经验，许多人创造了超额回报，使他们在华尔街家喻户晓。因此，当 13F 文件公布显示他们在前一个季度购买了哪些股票时，这可能成为华尔街的强烈信号，表明他们对某个特定股票的坚定信念。</p>
<p>投资者绝不应盲目跟随亿万富翁。相反，他们应该确保进行自己的尽职调查，因为在 13F 表格向公众发布时，报告的交易可能已经有几个月的历史。此外，对冲基金的投资时间跨度通常比散户投资者短，这使得他们的真实意图更难以完全理解。尽管 13F 表格仍然对新的投资想法有帮助，但投资者应意识到上述问题。</p>
<p>在第二季度，亿万富翁们涌入了一只交易所交易基金（ETF），至少有一位华尔街专家认为该基金到 2030 年可能会飙升高达 124%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzI5NTIvcGVvcGxlLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzI5NTIvcGVvcGxlLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>更广泛的市场有上涨空间</h2>
<p>尽管经历了五年的极度牛市，许多华尔街分析师仍然认为，广泛的基准 <strong>标普 500</strong> 指数在未来几年还有显著的上涨空间，这得益于从降低利率到人工智能（AI）革命的强大市场顺风。跟踪标普 500 的 ETF 之一是 <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong>（SPY -0.41%）。在第二季度，几位知名投资者涌入了该指数，该指数包含大约 500 只大型美国股票，涵盖多个行业：</p>
<ul>
<li>由亿万富翁以色列·英格兰德（Israel Englander）经营的大型多经理 “pod shop” 米伦尼亚管理公司（Millennium Management）将其在 SPY 中的持仓增加了 1913%，在第二季度末持有超过 121 万股。</li>
<li>由保罗·都铎·琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）经营的都铎投资公司（Tudor Investment Corp）将其在 SPY 中的持仓增加了 1867%，持有超过 198 万股。</li>
<li>由亿万富翁汤姆·斯泰尔（Tom Steyer）经营的法拉隆资本管理公司（Farallon Capital Management）在本季度新建了一个持仓，购买了 550 万股。</li>
</ul>
<p>无论是疫情期间积累的储蓄和刺激资金，还是十年的量化宽松，亦或是人工智能革命，标普 500 在过去五年中表现出色。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cbeef51a5230d805d106b9ce38a0fb06.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cbeef51a5230d805d106b9ce38a0fb06.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>因此，有一大批投资者认为市场即将迎来修正或显著回调。但并非所有投资者都持这种观点。事实上，有些人认为股市仍处于牛市的早期到中期阶段，可能会继续上涨。其中一位分析师是 Fundstrat Global Advisers 的汤姆·李（Tom Lee）。李在过去几年一直是坚定的看涨者，但他在 2023 年和 2024 年对市场的看涨预测非常准确，而在此期间许多分析师持悲观态度。</p>
<p>就在最近的八月，李给出了标普 500 的价格目标为 6600，而截至目前市场已经超过 6700。然而，李也表示，如果发生两件事，他可以看到市场在今年达到 7000：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>美联储将在 2025 年 “暂停” 后最终降息 [并且] ISM（采购经理人指数）将在低于 50 超过 28 个月后最终恢复到 50 以上……对我们来说，这是有道理的。我们只是不知道股票在美联储降息时会如何反应。但一旦利率反映出美联储的鸽派立场，这对经济和股票都是有利的。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>美联储已经正式降息，这显然对市场的当前水平产生了积极影响。最新的 ISM 读数在九月份为 49.1，较八月份有所上升，略高于预期。超过 50 的读数表明经济扩张。</p>
<p>李此前在 2024 年表示，标普 500 到 2030 年可能达到 15000，意味着在未来五年内增长 124%。李的看涨情绪与大量千禧一代即将进入他们的主要购买年龄（30 至 50 岁）有关。此外，人工智能及相关支出将推动这一繁荣，更多资金流入科技股，标普 500 的估值也将提高。</p>
<h2>标普 500 是否准备上涨？</h2>
<p>历史上，持有广泛市场五年和十年的人往往表现良好。李讨论的许多趋势正在显现，包括在追求人工智能的大型科技股中的集中度增加，以及那些受益于当前巨额人工智能基础设施支出的公司。虽然我不认为人工智能是一个短暂的潮流，但我也不太确定它是否会线性增长。相反，我认为它的走势将类似于互联网繁荣时期的波动，这就是为什么投资者不能排除回调的可能性。</p>
<p>基于发生的一切，人们也会认为经济在某个时刻必须找到衰退，尽管诚然，根据最近的经济数据，很难看到短期内出现严重衰退。我最大的担忧是滞涨情景，即失业率上升而通货膨胀保持高位，这使得美联储难以实现其双重任务。</p>
<p>最终，拥有长期投资视野的投资者可以继续购买和持有市场。然而，由于市场处于历史高位，我仍然建议采用定投的方法，以平滑您的成本基础，并更好地为波动做好准备。</p>

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

<p>亿万富翁们正在大举投资于 SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust（SPY），一些分析师预测到 2030 年可能会有 124% 的增长。知名对冲基金显著增加了在 SPY 中的持仓，反映出对更广泛市场增长的信心，这种增长受到低利率和人工智能革命等因素的推动。分析师汤姆·李预测到 2030 年标准普尔 500 指数可能达到 15,000 点，这得益于强大的千禧一代购买力和持续的科技投资。尽管市场修正的担忧存在，但许多人认为牛市仍处于早期阶段</p>

<p>Billionaires running hedge funds on Wall Street are some of the smartest investors in the world. They have decades of professional trading experience, and many have generated superior returns that have made them a household name on Wall Street. So when the 13F filings come out showing what stocks they purchased in the prior quarter, it can be a powerful signal to Wall Street that they have strong conviction on a particular stock name.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在华尔街经营对冲基金的亿万富翁是世界上最聪明的投资者之一。他们拥有数十年的专业交易经验，许多人创造了超额回报，使他们在华尔街家喻户晓。因此，当 13F 文件公布显示他们在前一个季度购买了哪些股票时，这可能成为华尔街的强烈信号，表明他们对某个特定股票的坚定信念。</p>
</div><p>Investors should never follow billionaires blindly. Instead, they should make sure to do their own due diligence because by the time 13F forms are released to the public, the reported trades can be a few months old. Furthermore, hedge funds tend to invest on shorter time horizons than retail investors, making their true intentions harder to fully understand. The 13F forms are still helpful for new investment ideas, but investors should be aware of the issues mentioned above.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者绝不应盲目跟随亿万富翁。相反，他们应该确保进行自己的尽职调查，因为在 13F 表格向公众发布时，报告的交易可能已经有几个月的历史。此外，对冲基金的投资时间跨度通常比散户投资者短，这使得他们的真实意图更难以完全理解。尽管 13F 表格仍然对新的投资想法有帮助，但投资者应意识到上述问题。</p>
</div><p>In the second quarter, billionaires piled into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that at least one Wall Street expert thinks could soar as much as 124% by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二季度，亿万富翁们涌入了一只交易所交易基金（ETF），至少有一位华尔街专家认为该基金到 2030 年可能会飙升高达 124%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzI5NTIvcGVvcGxlLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832952%2Fpeople-computer-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The broader market has upside</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更广泛的市场有上涨空间</h2>
</div><p>Despite experiencing a tremendously bullish five years, many Wall Street analysts still think the broader benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index has significant room to run over the next few years, driven by powerful market tailwinds from lower interest rates to a continuation of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. One ETF that tracks the S&amp;P 500 is the <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong>(SPY -0.41%). In Q2, several notable investors piled into the index, which contains roughly 500 large-cap U.S. stocks across several sectors:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管经历了五年的极度牛市，许多华尔街分析师仍然认为，广泛的基准 <strong>标普 500</strong> 指数在未来几年还有显著的上涨空间，这得益于从降低利率到人工智能（AI）革命的强大市场顺风。跟踪标普 500 的 ETF 之一是 <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong>（SPY -0.41%）。在第二季度，几位知名投资者涌入了该指数，该指数包含大约 500 只大型美国股票，涵盖多个行业：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Millennium Management, the large multimanager &#34;pod shop&#34; run by billionaire Israel Englander, increased its position in SPY by 1,913% and owned over 1.21 million shares at the end of Q2.</li>
<li>Tudor Investment Corp, run by Paul Tudor Jones, increased its position in SPY by 1,867% and held over 1.98 million shares.</li>
<li>Farallon Capital Management, run by billionaire Tom Steyer, initiated a new position in the quarter, purchasing 5.5 million shares.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>由亿万富翁以色列·英格兰德（Israel Englander）经营的大型多经理 “pod shop” 米伦尼亚管理公司（Millennium Management）将其在 SPY 中的持仓增加了 1913%，在第二季度末持有超过 121 万股。</li>
<li>由保罗·都铎·琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）经营的都铎投资公司（Tudor Investment Corp）将其在 SPY 中的持仓增加了 1867%，持有超过 198 万股。</li>
<li>由亿万富翁汤姆·斯泰尔（Tom Steyer）经营的法拉隆资本管理公司（Farallon Capital Management）在本季度新建了一个持仓，购买了 550 万股。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Whether it's built-up savings and stimulus money from the pandemic, a decade of quantitative easing, or the AI revolution, the S&amp;P 500 has been on a stellar run over the past five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论是疫情期间积累的储蓄和刺激资金，还是十年的量化宽松，亦或是人工智能革命，标普 500 在过去五年中表现出色。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cbeef51a5230d805d106b9ce38a0fb06.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cbeef51a5230d805d106b9ce38a0fb06.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>As a result, there is a strong camp of investors who believe the market is due for a correction or significant pullback. But not all investors share this view. In fact, some think the stock market is still in the early-to-mid innings of a bull market that can continue to push higher. One of those analysts is Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisers. Lee has been a permabull over the years, but he absolutely nailed his bullish calls on the market in 2023 and 2024, a time when many analysts were bearish.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，有一大批投资者认为市场即将迎来修正或显著回调。但并非所有投资者都持这种观点。事实上，有些人认为股市仍处于牛市的早期到中期阶段，可能会继续上涨。其中一位分析师是 Fundstrat Global Advisers 的汤姆·李（Tom Lee）。李在过去几年一直是坚定的看涨者，但他在 2023 年和 2024 年对市场的看涨预测非常准确，而在此期间许多分析师持悲观态度。</p>
</div><p>As recently as August, Lee gave an S&amp;P 500 price target of 6,600, which the market has already surpassed at over 6,700, as of this writing. However, Lee also said he could see the market hitting 7,000 this year if two things happen:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在最近的八月，李给出了标普 500 的价格目标为 6600，而截至目前市场已经超过 6700。然而，李也表示，如果发生两件事，他可以看到市场在今年达到 7000：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>The Fed will finally cut rates, after being on 'pause' for entire 2025 [and] the ISM (Purchasing Managers' Index) will finally recover &gt;50, after spending 28-months plus below 50 ... To us, this makes sense. We just don't know how stocks might initially react to a Fed cut. But once interest rates are reflecting a dovish Fed, this is good for the economy and stocks.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>美联储将在 2025 年 “暂停” 后最终降息 [并且] ISM（采购经理人指数）将在低于 50 超过 28 个月后最终恢复到 50 以上……对我们来说，这是有道理的。我们只是不知道股票在美联储降息时会如何反应。但一旦利率反映出美联储的鸽派立场，这对经济和股票都是有利的。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The Fed has officially cut interest rates, which clearly worked out for the market based on its current level. The latest ISM reading came in at 49.1 in September, up from August and slightly above expectations. A reading over 50 indicates economic expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储已经正式降息，这显然对市场的当前水平产生了积极影响。最新的 ISM 读数在九月份为 49.1，较八月份有所上升，略高于预期。超过 50 的读数表明经济扩张。</p>
</div><p>Lee previously said in 2024 that the S&amp;P 500 could reach 15,000 by 2030, implying 124% over the next five years. Lee's bullish sentiment has to do with the fact that the large cohort of millennials is about to enter their prime buying years (ages 30 to 50). In addition, AI and related spending will power this boom with more money flowing into tech stocks and higher valuations for the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>李此前在 2024 年表示，标普 500 到 2030 年可能达到 15000，意味着在未来五年内增长 124%。李的看涨情绪与大量千禧一代即将进入他们的主要购买年龄（30 至 50 岁）有关。此外，人工智能及相关支出将推动这一繁荣，更多资金流入科技股，标普 500 的估值也将提高。</p>
</div><h2>Is the S&amp;P 500 poised to run?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>标普 500 是否准备上涨？</h2>
</div><p>Historically, those who hold the broader market for five and 10 years tend to do well. Many trends Lee discussed are materializing from more concentration in the large tech stocks that are pursuing AI, as well as those benefitting from the enormous AI infrastructure spending now underway. While I don't think AI is a fad, I'm also not quite sure it will move linearly. Instead, I think its movement will be similar to how the internet boom suffered setbacks, which is why investors can't rule out a pullback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，持有广泛市场五年和十年的人往往表现良好。李讨论的许多趋势正在显现，包括在追求人工智能的大型科技股中的集中度增加，以及那些受益于当前巨额人工智能基础设施支出的公司。虽然我不认为人工智能是一个短暂的潮流，但我也不太确定它是否会线性增长。相反，我认为它的走势将类似于互联网繁荣时期的波动，这就是为什么投资者不能排除回调的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Based on everything that has happened, one would also think that the economy has to find a recession at some point, although admittedly, it's very hard to see a severe recession in the near term based on recent economic data. My biggest concern is a stagflation scenario where unemployment rises and inflation remains elevated, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to achieve its dual mandate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于发生的一切，人们也会认为经济在某个时刻必须找到衰退，尽管诚然，根据最近的经济数据，很难看到短期内出现严重衰退。我最大的担忧是滞涨情景，即失业率上升而通货膨胀保持高位，这使得美联储难以实现其双重任务。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, investors with a long-term investing horizon can keep buying and owning the market. However, because the market is at all-time highs, I continue to recommend a dollar-cost averaging approach to smooth out your cost basis over time and better prepare for volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，拥有长期投资视野的投资者可以继续购买和持有市场。然而，由于市场处于历史高位，我仍然建议采用定投的方法，以平滑您的成本基础，并更好地为波动做好准备。</p>
</div>

The ETF Billionaires Love Right Now Could Soar Up to 124%, According to 1 Analyst

- 对冲基金亿万富翁在 Q2 增持 S&P 500 ETF，显示市场信心。  
- 分析师认为 S&P 500 未来有望上涨，可能达到 15,000 点。  
- 投资者应谨慎，建议采用定投策略应对市场波动。

根据一位分析师的说法，亿万富翁们目前钟爱的 ETF 可能会飙升至 124%