<p>由于美国政府停摆仍然影响官方劳动统计数据，来自私人公司和银行的替代数据传递出明确的信息：劳动市场正在降温，市场普遍押注美联储将在 10 月 30 日的会议上再次降息。</p>
<p>由于停摆，劳工统计局缺席的九月份就业报告使得投资者和政策制定者处于黑暗之中。</p>
<p>最后一次官方非农就业数据——八月份仅增加 22,000 个就业岗位——已经显示出停滞，三个月的平均水平徘徊在 29,000 个岗位。</p>
<h2>私营部门九月份出现就业损失</h2>
<p>在缺乏公共数据的情况下，私人来源描绘出一个令人担忧的局面。</p>
<p>上周发布的 ADP 就业报告显示，九月份私营企业裁减了 32,000 个岗位。这一数据紧随八月份的下调修正，显示出 3,000 个岗位的损失，并标志着自 2023 年 3 月以来的最大降幅。经济学家原本预计会增加 50,000 个岗位。</p>
<p>这也是自 2020 年以来，私营部门首次出现连续两个月的就业损失，这对几个月前看似强劲的经济来说是一个警示信号。</p>
<p>与此同时，供应管理协会的服务业采购经理人指数（ISM Services PMI）这一关键前瞻性指标显示，就业子指数连续第四个月收缩——在过去六个月中有五个月出现收缩。</p>
<p>“来自联邦政府以外的数据显示，第二季度末经济前景黯淡，”<strong>Bill Adams</strong>，Comerica Bank 的首席经济学家表示。</p>
<h2><strong>美国银行数据支持劳动市场疲软</strong></h2>
<p>美国银行研究所的内部数据进一步确认了就业市场的降温。在周三发布的一份报告中，该银行表示，九月份就业增长放缓，而失业申请增加。</p>
<p>“我们的工资单估计——基于直接存款数据——表明放缓趋势仍在继续，” 该银行表示，并指出九月份工资单增长同比仅上升 0.5%，是几个月以来的最低增速。</p>
<p>流入美国银行账户的失业救济金也显示出恶化的迹象。</p>
<p>十月份，这些支付比去年增加了 10%，是八月份 BLS 报告的 5% 同比增长的两倍。该银行表示，这种差异 “暗示失业可能出现上升趋势。”</p>
<p>尽管招聘疲软，但各收入群体的薪资增长有所加速。九月份，税后工资和薪金支付在高收入家庭中同比增长 4.0%，中等收入家庭增长 2.4%，而低收入家庭仅增长 1.4%。</p>
<p>虽然九月份各群体之间的差距没有进一步扩大，但这种差异依然显著，突显出薪资增长中的持续不平等。</p>
<h2>市场强烈押注降息</h2>
<p>由于缺乏有力的联邦数据来反驳悲观的私人报告，市场将美联储再次降息视为定局。</p>
<p>根据 CME FedWatch，期货市场暗示 10 月 30 日降息 25 个基点的概率为 95%，这将使联邦基金目标区间降至 3.75%-4.00%。</p>
<p>这将紧随九月份的降息，市场还预计在 12 月份有 80% 的概率会进行第三次降息。</p>
<p>“对于美联储来说，这种比以往更模糊的经济解读足够负面，很可能促使他们在下次决策时降低联邦基金目标，” Adams 表示。</p>
<p>随着华盛顿的停摆暂停了官方报告，私人数据正在发挥作用——并描绘出一个清晰的图景：就业增长停滞，失业率上升，广泛的经济信号在美联储准备下一步政策时闪烁着红灯。</p>
<p>尽管如此，华尔街仍因乐观情绪而上涨，认为疲软的数据将促使美联储考虑再次降息。<strong>纳斯达克 100</strong> 指数，由 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust</strong>（NASDAQ:QQQ）跟踪，周三上涨 0.6%，交易价格距离前一天的历史高点仅 0.2%，自四月份触底以来上涨了 50%。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>对人工智能泡沫的担忧？这次情况不同，摩根士丹利表示</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>照片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

<p>美国政府停摆正在掩盖劳动统计数据，但私人数据显示就业市场降温，导致市场对 10 月 30 日美联储降息的预期。ADP 报告显示，9 月份失去了 32,000 个工作岗位，这是自 2020 年以来首次出现连续两个月的失业。美国银行也报告了就业增长放缓和失业申请增加。市场预计降息的概率高达 95%，因为经济信号表明停滞。尽管如此，华尔街依然保持乐观，纳斯达克 100 指数接近历史高点</p>

<p>With the U.S. government shutdown still clouding official labor statistics, alternative data from private firms and banks is sending a clear message: the labor market is cooling, and markets are betting big that the Federal Reserve will respond with another rate cut at its Oct. 30 meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于美国政府停摆仍然影响官方劳动统计数据，来自私人公司和银行的替代数据传递出明确的信息：劳动市场正在降温，市场普遍押注美联储将在 10 月 30 日的会议上再次降息。</p>
</div><p>The absence of the September jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics due to the shutdown has left investors and policymakers in the dark.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于停摆，劳工统计局缺席的九月份就业报告使得投资者和政策制定者处于黑暗之中。</p>
</div><p>The last official nonfarm payroll figure—just 22,000 jobs added in August—already signaled stagnation, with the three-month average stuck around 29,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后一次官方非农就业数据——八月份仅增加 22,000 个就业岗位——已经显示出停滞，三个月的平均水平徘徊在 29,000 个岗位。</p>
</div><h2>Private Payrolls Show Job Losses In September</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>私营部门九月份出现就业损失</h2>
</div><p>In lieu of public data, private sources are painting a troubling picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在缺乏公共数据的情况下，私人来源描绘出一个令人担忧的局面。</p>
</div><p>The ADP payrolls report released last week showed private employers cut 32,000 jobs in September. That follows a downward revision for August to a 3,000 job loss and marks the sharpest decline since March 2023. Economists had expected a 50,000 gain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周发布的 ADP 就业报告显示，九月份私营企业裁减了 32,000 个岗位。这一数据紧随八月份的下调修正，显示出 3,000 个岗位的损失，并标志着自 2023 年 3 月以来的最大降幅。经济学家原本预计会增加 50,000 个岗位。</p>
</div><p>It's also the first time since 2020 that the private sector has posted two consecutive months of job losses, a red flag for an economy that had seemed resilient just months ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也是自 2020 年以来，私营部门首次出现连续两个月的就业损失，这对几个月前看似强劲的经济来说是一个警示信号。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management's Services Purchasing Managers Index (ISM Services PMI), a key forward-looking indicator, showed the employment sub-index contracting for the fourth straight month—and five of the last six.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，供应管理协会的服务业采购经理人指数（ISM Services PMI）这一关键前瞻性指标显示，就业子指数连续第四个月收缩——在过去六个月中有五个月出现收缩。</p>
</div><p>“Data from sources outside the federal government are still coming out, and paint a downbeat picture of the economy at the end of the second quarter,” said <strong>Bill Adams,</strong> chief economist at Comerica Bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“来自联邦政府以外的数据显示，第二季度末经济前景黯淡，”<strong>Bill Adams</strong>，Comerica Bank 的首席经济学家表示。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bank of America Data Supports A Labor Market Weakness</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>美国银行数据支持劳动市场疲软</strong></h2>
</div><p>Internal data from the Bank of America Institute further confirms a cooling job market. In a report published Wednesday, the bank said employment growth slowed in September, while unemployment claims rose.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国银行研究所的内部数据进一步确认了就业市场的降温。在周三发布的一份报告中，该银行表示，九月份就业增长放缓，而失业申请增加。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Our payroll estimates—based on direct deposit data—suggest a continued slowdown,&#34; the bank said, noting that payroll growth rose just 0.5% year-over-year in September, the slowest pace in months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们的工资单估计——基于直接存款数据——表明放缓趋势仍在继续，” 该银行表示，并指出九月份工资单增长同比仅上升 0.5%，是几个月以来的最低增速。</p>
</div><p>Unemployment payments into BofA accounts also point to worsening conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>流入美国银行账户的失业救济金也显示出恶化的迹象。</p>
</div><p>In October, those payments rose 10% from the previous year, double the 5% year-over-year increase reported by the BLS in August. That divergence, the bank said, &#34;suggests some upward momentum to unemployment.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十月份，这些支付比去年增加了 10%，是八月份 BLS 报告的 5% 同比增长的两倍。该银行表示，这种差异 “暗示失业可能出现上升趋势。”</p>
</div><p>Despite the weakness in hiring, pay growth did see some acceleration across income groups. After-tax wage and salary payments rose 4.0% year-over-year in September for higher-income households, 2.4% for middle-income and just 1.4% for lower-income families.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管招聘疲软，但各收入群体的薪资增长有所加速。九月份，税后工资和薪金支付在高收入家庭中同比增长 4.0%，中等收入家庭增长 2.4%，而低收入家庭仅增长 1.4%。</p>
</div><p>While the gap between cohorts did not widen further in September, the disparity remains stark, underlining persistent inequality in wage growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然九月份各群体之间的差距没有进一步扩大，但这种差异依然显著，突显出薪资增长中的持续不平等。</p>
</div><h2>Markets Strongly Bet On Rate Cut</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场强烈押注降息</h2>
</div><p>With no hard federal data to counter the downbeat private reports, markets are treating another rate cut from the Fed as a done deal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于缺乏有力的联邦数据来反驳悲观的私人报告，市场将美联储再次降息视为定局。</p>
</div><p>According to CME FedWatch, futures imply a 95% probability of a 25-basis-point cut on Oct. 30, which would lower the fed funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CME FedWatch，期货市场暗示 10 月 30 日降息 25 个基点的概率为 95%，这将使联邦基金目标区间降至 3.75%-4.00%。</p>
</div><p>That would follow the September cut, and markets are also pricing in a third cut in December with 80% odds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这将紧随九月份的降息，市场还预计在 12 月份有 80% 的概率会进行第三次降息。</p>
</div><p>&#34;For the Fed, this fuzzier-than-usual read on the economy is negative enough to very likely prompt a cut to the federal funds target at their next decision,&#34; Adams said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“对于美联储来说，这种比以往更模糊的经济解读足够负面，很可能促使他们在下次决策时降低联邦基金目标，” Adams 表示。</p>
</div><p>With Washington's shutdown halting official reports, private data is stepping in—and it's painting a clear picture: job growth is stalling, unemployment is ticking higher, and broader economic signals are flashing red just as the Federal Reserve prepares its next policy move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着华盛顿的停摆暂停了官方报告，私人数据正在发挥作用——并描绘出一个清晰的图景：就业增长停滞，失业率上升，广泛的经济信号在美联储准备下一步政策时闪烁着红灯。</p>
</div><p>Still, Wall Street is rallying on optimism that softer data will prompt the Fed to consider another rate cut. The <strong>Nasdaq 100</strong>, tracked by <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust</strong>(NASDAQ:QQQ), rose 0.6% Wednesday, trading within 0.2% of its record high from the day before and now up 50% since hitting bottom in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，华尔街仍因乐观情绪而上涨，认为疲软的数据将促使美联储考虑再次降息。<strong>纳斯达克 100</strong> 指数，由 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust</strong>（NASDAQ:QQQ）跟踪，周三上涨 0.6%，交易价格距离前一天的历史高点仅 0.2%，自四月份触底以来上涨了 50%。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Fear Of An AI Bubble? This Time Is Different, Goldman Says</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>对人工智能泡沫的担忧？这次情况不同，摩根士丹利表示</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Photo: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Shutdown Blurs Jobs Data—But These Reports Back Other Fed Cuts

- 美国政府停摆导致官方劳动统计缺失，私营数据表明劳动市场降温。  
- ADP 报告显示，九月私营部门裁员 32,000，经济前景堪忧。  
- 市场预计美联储将在 10 月 30 日再次降息，概率高达 95%。

政府停摆使就业数据变得模糊——但这些报告支持美联储的其他削减措施