<p>由于 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 1.32%) 的核心电动车业务在今年面临困境，分析师和投资者急于了解第三季度电动车交付量的趋势。该公司交付了近 497,100 辆，远超华尔街预期的 447,600 辆。然而，特斯拉的股票在消息发布后立即下跌，因为这一强劲的业绩并未能激起华尔街的兴奋。这是为什么呢？</p>
<h2>电动车税收抵免的到期</h2>
<p>特斯拉第三季度近 497,100 辆的交付量超出了预期，同比增长了 7%。这与 2025 年前两个季度的情况形成了鲜明对比，当时公司报告的交付量同比下降了 12%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzYyNjMvdGVzbGEtYnJhbmQtaW1hZ2UtMS5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="420" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzYyNjMvdGVzbGEtYnJhbmQtaW1hZ2UtMS5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<p>但分析师显然知道这一季度会很强劲，因为特朗普总统在今年早些时候通过国会的大规模立法支出法案取消了$7,500 的电动车税收抵免，该抵免在第三季度的最后一天，即 9 月 30 日到期。显然，消费者可能会在车辆成本上升之前急于购买特斯拉。</p>
<p>根据 Deepwater Asset Management 的管理合伙人 Gene Munster 的说法，特斯拉在第三季度的美国销售同比增长了 35%，他将此归因于电动车税收抵免到期前的抢购。Munster 表示：“投资者应该在很大程度上抛弃这个积极的数字，” 并指出 “未来将是自动驾驶。”</p>
<p>尽管如此，其他分析师则更加乐观。<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的分析师表示，第三季度的交付量处于对冲基金预期的上限，范围在 450,000 到 500,000 辆之间。Wedbush Securities 的分析师 Dan Ives 称这一季度为 “巨大的反弹”，并表示他仍然看好公司的自动驾驶汽车和类人机器人业务，Ives 和 Wedbush 分析师 Scott Devitt 认为，这可能会将特斯拉的市值推高至 2 万亿到 3 万亿美元之间，预计在 2026 年或 2027 年实现。</p>
<p>最终，我猜测股价表现不佳可能归因于特斯拉股票近期的上涨。过去六个月，股价上涨了近 60%。</p>
<h2>牛熊辩论的当前状态</h2>
<p>特斯拉仍然是华尔街上最热烈讨论的股票之一，牛派相信它是全球最具创新性的人工智能公司，而熊派则指出其惊人的估值接近前瞻性收益的 250 倍。截至目前，特斯拉的股价接近每股 440 美元。华尔街的最低目标价为每股 19 美元，而最高目标价为每股 600 美元，这显示出市场对该股票的看法分歧很大。</p>
<p>但我认为牛派和熊派都同意的一点是，特斯拉的未来将取决于其自动驾驶业务，特斯拉正在早期阶段建立自动驾驶出租车车队，以及类人机器人业务。如果这些业务如 Ives 等分析师所认为的那样成功，那么股价可以继续上涨。但如果出现问题或市场竞争比人们想象的更激烈，股价可能会下跌。</p>
<p>特斯拉已经开始在部分城市推出自动驾驶试点项目，而类人机器人仍处于原型阶段。特斯拉的机器人出租车业务的优势在于，车辆的建造成本据说仅为竞争对手 WayMo 的一个小部分，后者也在多个城市运营。然而，技术是否能够真正完善并被认为足够安全以实现全面商业化仍有待观察。</p>
<p>我选择避免投资特斯拉的简单原因是，我认为市场对公众仍然知之甚少的业务假设了过多的成功。如果特斯拉成功并股价涨至每股 600 美元，那将有 40% 的上涨空间，但如果机器人出租车和类人机器人未能如预期那样成功，谁知道股票的价值是多少。随着股票规模的扩大并超过 1 万亿美元的市值，维持增长以保持如此高的估值变得更加困难。风险与回报的比例对我来说并不具吸引力。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉在第三季度报告了近 497,100 辆电动车交付，超过华尔街 447,600 辆的预期，同比增长 7%。然而，公告后股价下跌，原因是 7500 美元的电动车税收抵免到期，这一政策曾刺激了消费者购买。分析师意见不一；一些人看好特斯拉在自动驾驶和机器人领域的潜力，而另一些人则对高估值和未来成功的不确定性表示担忧。特斯拉的股价约为 440 美元，价格目标范围广泛，从 19 美元到 600 美元，反映了投资者之间的持续争论</p>

<p>With <strong>Tesla's</strong>(TSLA 1.32%) core electric vehicle business struggling this year, analysts and investors were anxious to get a glance at how EV deliveries would trend in the third quarter. The company delivered big time, reporting close to 497,100 deliveries, smashing Wall Street estimates of of 447,600. However, Tesla's stock dipped immediately following the news, as the strong beat was not enough to excite Wall Street. What gives?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 1.32%) 的核心电动车业务在今年面临困境，分析师和投资者急于了解第三季度电动车交付量的趋势。该公司交付了近 497,100 辆，远超华尔街预期的 447,600 辆。然而，特斯拉的股票在消息发布后立即下跌，因为这一强劲的业绩并未能激起华尔街的兴奋。这是为什么呢？</p>
</div><h2>Expiration of the EV tax credit</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>电动车税收抵免的到期</h2>
</div><p>Tesla's third-quarter deliveries of nearly 497,100 blew out estimates and rose 7% year over year. That's a sharp reversal from the first two quarters of 2025, when the company reported deliveries that fell 12% year over year compared to the first half of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉第三季度近 497,100 辆的交付量超出了预期，同比增长了 7%。这与 2025 年前两个季度的情况形成了鲜明对比，当时公司报告的交付量同比下降了 12%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzYyNjMvdGVzbGEtYnJhbmQtaW1hZ2UtMS5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F836263%2Ftesla-brand-image-1.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><p>But analysts clearly knew the quarter was going to be strong because President Trump's big legislative spending bill passed by Congress earlier this year eliminated the $7,500 EV tax credit on Sept. 30, the last day of the third quarter. It became evident that consumers would likely rush to purchase Teslas before the cost of the vehicles increased.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但分析师显然知道这一季度会很强劲，因为特朗普总统在今年早些时候通过国会的大规模立法支出法案取消了$7,500 的电动车税收抵免，该抵免在第三季度的最后一天，即 9 月 30 日到期。显然，消费者可能会在车辆成本上升之前急于购买特斯拉。</p>
</div><p>According to Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, Tesla saw a 35% year-over-year increase in its U.S. sales in the third quarter, which he attributes to the rush before the EV tax credit expiration. &#34;Investors should largely throw out the positive number,&#34; Munster said, noting that the &#34;the future will be autonomy.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Deepwater Asset Management 的管理合伙人 Gene Munster 的说法，特斯拉在第三季度的美国销售同比增长了 35%，他将此归因于电动车税收抵免到期前的抢购。Munster 表示：“投资者应该在很大程度上抛弃这个积极的数字，” 并指出 “未来将是自动驾驶。”</p>
</div><p>Still, other analysts were more optimistic. <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> analyst said that Q3 deliveries came in at the top end of hedge fund estimates ranging from 450,000 to 500,000 deliveries. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives called the quarter a &#34;massive bounceback&#34; and said he is still high on the company's autonomous vehicles and humanoid robotics businesses, which Ives and Wedbush analyst Scott Devitt think could catapult Tesla to a $2 trillion to $3 trillion market cap by 2026 or 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，其他分析师则更加乐观。<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的分析师表示，第三季度的交付量处于对冲基金预期的上限，范围在 450,000 到 500,000 辆之间。Wedbush Securities 的分析师 Dan Ives 称这一季度为 “巨大的反弹”，并表示他仍然看好公司的自动驾驶汽车和类人机器人业务，Ives 和 Wedbush 分析师 Scott Devitt 认为，这可能会将特斯拉的市值推高至 2 万亿到 3 万亿美元之间，预计在 2026 年或 2027 年实现。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, I'm guessing the disappointing share action could be attributed to Tesla stock's recent run-up. The stock is up close to 60% over the past six months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，我猜测股价表现不佳可能归因于特斯拉股票近期的上涨。过去六个月，股价上涨了近 60%。</p>
</div><h2>Current state of the bull-bear debate</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>牛熊辩论的当前状态</h2>
</div><p>Tesla is still one of if not the most hotly debated stocks on Wall Street, with the bulls confident that it is the most innovative AI company in the world and the bears pointing to its staggering valuation of nearly 250 times forward earnings. As of this writing, Tesla trades at nearly $440 per share. The lowest Wall Street price target is an astounding $19 per share, while the high is $600 per share, which shows just how split the Street is on the name.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉仍然是华尔街上最热烈讨论的股票之一，牛派相信它是全球最具创新性的人工智能公司，而熊派则指出其惊人的估值接近前瞻性收益的 250 倍。截至目前，特斯拉的股价接近每股 440 美元。华尔街的最低目标价为每股 19 美元，而最高目标价为每股 600 美元，这显示出市场对该股票的看法分歧很大。</p>
</div><p>But one thing I think both the bulls and bears agree on is that the future of Tesla is going to come down to its autonomous driving business, for which Tesla is in the early stages of building out an autonomous ride-hailing fleet, and the humanoid robots business. If these businesses are as successful as analysts like Ives believe, than the stock can keep moving higher. But hiccups or a more competitive market than people think could send it tumbling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但我认为牛派和熊派都同意的一点是，特斯拉的未来将取决于其自动驾驶业务，特斯拉正在早期阶段建立自动驾驶出租车车队，以及类人机器人业务。如果这些业务如 Ives 等分析师所认为的那样成功，那么股价可以继续上涨。但如果出现问题或市场竞争比人们想象的更激烈，股价可能会下跌。</p>
</div><p>Tesla has begun to launch pilot autonomous driving programs in select cities, while humanoid robots are still in prototype stage. The advantage of Tesla's robotaxi business is that the vehicles can reportedly be built at a fraction of the cost of rival WayMo, which is also operating in several cities. However, it remains to be seen whether the technology can truly be perfected and deemed safe enough to be fully commercialized.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉已经开始在部分城市推出自动驾驶试点项目，而类人机器人仍处于原型阶段。特斯拉的机器人出租车业务的优势在于，车辆的建造成本据说仅为竞争对手 WayMo 的一个小部分，后者也在多个城市运营。然而，技术是否能够真正完善并被认为足够安全以实现全面商业化仍有待观察。</p>
</div><p>The simple reason I choose to avoid Tesla is that I think the market has assumed too much success in businesses that the public still knows far too little about. If Tesla is successful and jumps to $600 per share, that's 40% upside, but if robotaxis and humanoid robots don't work out as well as hoped, who knows that the stock is worth. As stocks get larger and surpass a $1 trillion market cap, maintaining the growth to hold such a high valuation becomes more difficult. The risk-reward proposition is not attractive to me.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我选择避免投资特斯拉的简单原因是，我认为市场对公众仍然知之甚少的业务假设了过多的成功。如果特斯拉成功并股价涨至每股 600 美元，那将有 40% 的上涨空间，但如果机器人出租车和类人机器人未能如预期那样成功，谁知道股票的价值是多少。随着股票规模的扩大并超过 1 万亿美元的市值，维持增长以保持如此高的估值变得更加困难。风险与回报的比例对我来说并不具吸引力。</p>
</div>

Tesla Q3 Deliveries Smash Estimates, But Wall Street Wasn't Impressed. What Gives?

- 特斯拉第三季度交付近 497,100 辆，超出预期的 447,600 辆。  
- 交付量同比增长 7%，但股价却下跌，因市场对未来持谨慎态度。  
- 分析师认为，未来成功依赖于自动驾驶和人形机器人业务的发展。  

特斯拉第三季度的交付量超出预期，但华尔街对此并不感到满意。这是为什么呢？