<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -1.24%) 的投资者已经获得了一些关于公司即将发布的第三季度业绩的线索。这是因为上周，管理层报告了第三季度的电动车交付数据。这些数据令人鼓舞，且由于特斯拉直接向客户销售，其交付数据即为销售量。</p>
<p>尽管本季度的数字超出了分析师的共识，但这不太可能是推动股价上涨的关键最新发展。以下是可能影响股价的三件事。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY4ODQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM4NDY4NDE2NC0xMjAxeDg1Ny1lYjk3NTkxLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="499" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY4ODQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM4NDY4NDE2NC0xMjAxeDg1Ny1lYjk3NTkxLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>1. 特斯拉第三季度的收益及其对第四季度的影响</h2>
<p>第三季度的收益报告定于 10 月 22 日发布，重要的是要像金发姑娘计划在森林中的最后一刻假期一样看待这些结果。在过热的一面，497,099 辆车的交付量比去年第三季度增长了 7.4%，比 2025 年第二季度增长了 29.4%。</p>
<p>然而，正如大多数投资者所知，新的和二手电动车（EV）的联邦税收抵免在 9 月 30 日到期，销售很可能在第三季度大幅提前，而不是在第四季度。这很可能导致特斯拉在第四季度的交付量显著下降。</p>
<p>在论点的过冷一面，特斯拉不仅在美国产生销售，因此电动车联邦税收抵免问题不会影响其所有销售。根据公开可用的数据，特斯拉在第二季度的销售量中有 62.6% 来自国际市场。</p>
<p>换句话说，特斯拉在第四季度的销售在环比上可能并不会那么糟糕，华尔街分析师可能会在财报电话会议中询问首席执行官埃隆·马斯克关于 10 月前几周美国销售的节奏——这是值得关注的内容。</p>
<h2>2. 特斯拉将更新一款新的低成本车型</h2>
<p>随着电动车制造行业普遍朝着减少激励和提高价格的方向发展，尤其是在利率相对较高的情况下，电动车公司需要降低电动车的价格。这就是为什么当特斯拉披露它在上半年开始生产一款低成本的 Model Y（特斯拉最畅销的车型）并将在第三季度逐步提高产量，为第四季度的发布做好准备时，市场感到兴奋的原因之一。</p>
<p>这至关重要，因为电动车的燃料和维护成本显著低于内燃机或混合动力汽车；因此，前期成本的降低将对车辆的生命周期成本产生更大的影响。此外，这可能使特斯拉有资格获得像英国电动车补助金这样的激励，补助金额高达 5,000 美元，适用于价格低于 49,600 美元的新车。</p>
<h2>3. 特斯拉最新版本的全自动驾驶软件</h2>
<p>特斯拉最新的监督全自动驾驶（FSD）更新（版本 14）的推出突显了中期投资案例的关键——无监督的机器人出租车和全自动驾驶有潜力在未来几年带来显著的收入和收益增长。</p>
<p>兴奋的焦点在于无监督机器人出租车的商业潜力，这将为特斯拉带来共享出行的收入，无论是通过其专用的 Cybercab（计划在 2026 年进行大规模生产）还是通过（尚未发布或批准的）无监督 FSD 改造的特斯拉车辆。</p>
<p>要实现任何一个里程碑，特斯拉需要增强其 FSD 产品。为此，它需要关于行驶里程的数据，以不断改善其神经网络，并消除涉及复杂驾驶情况的所谓 “边缘案例” 问题。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY4ODQvdHdvLXRlc2xhcy1pbi1hLWxpbmUtZHJpdmluZy1vbi1yb2FkLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="420" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY4ODQvdHdvLXRlc2xhcy1pbi1hLWxpbmUtZHJpdmluZy1vbi1yb2FkLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<p>好消息是，没有其他公司能与特斯拉的数据相提并论。例如，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Waymo 在夏季报告称已行驶 1 亿英里完全自主的里程，而特斯拉在第二季度末的行驶里程约为 45 亿英里。</p>
<p>此外，特斯拉的新数据大部分将来自硬件 4 车辆（更快的处理能力、更高的摄像头分辨率、更好的夜间清晰度和更广的视野），这些车辆于 2023 年开始交付。</p>
<h2>为什么特斯拉股票值得买入</h2>
<p>持续的机器人出租车推广、新的 FSD 版本确认了特斯拉的数据优势、低成本车型以及特斯拉在第四季度的销售有潜力超过低预期，共同构成了对该股票的看涨理由。</p>
<p>一如既往，投资者应注意，完全自主的机器人出租车或公开可用的无监督 FSD 是否会实现，甚至是否会及时实现，都是没有保证的。因此，特斯拉是一只投机性股票，但这样的股票通常在投资者的投资组合中风险较高的部分值得小额配置，因为其上行潜力可能很大。</p>

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉的股票在 10 月 22 日发布第三季度财报之前被视为买入，原因是交付数字强劲。关键因素包括电动车税收抵免到期可能对销售的影响、推出更低成本的 Model Y 以及全自动驾驶软件的进展。尽管围绕完全自主的机器人出租车存在不确定性，特斯拉的数据优势和即将推出的产品支持了投资者的乐观前景，但这仍然是一项投机性投资</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -1.24%) investors have already gotten clues as to what to expect from the company's upcoming third-quarter results. That's because last week, management reported its electric vehicle delivery numbers for the third quarter. They were encouraging numbers, and since Tesla sells direct to customers, its delivery numbers <em>are</em> its sales volumes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -1.24%) 的投资者已经获得了一些关于公司即将发布的第三季度业绩的线索。这是因为上周，管理层报告了第三季度的电动车交付数据。这些数据令人鼓舞，且由于特斯拉直接向客户销售，其交付数据即为销售量。</p>
</div><p>While the quarter's numbers beat the analyst consensus, it's not likely to be the key recent development that will drive the stock higher. Here's a look at three things that could be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管本季度的数字超出了分析师的共识，但这不太可能是推动股价上涨的关键最新发展。以下是可能影响股价的三件事。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY4ODQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM4NDY4NDE2NC0xMjAxeDg1Ny1lYjk3NTkxLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F836884%2Fgettyimages-1384684164-1201x857-eb97591.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>1. Tesla's third-quarter earnings and what they could mean for Q4</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 特斯拉第三季度的收益及其对第四季度的影响</h2>
</div><p>The third quarter earnings report is scheduled for release on Oct. 22, and it's essential to approach the results like Goldilocks planning a last-minute vacation in the woods. On the too-hot side, deliveries of 497,099 vehicles represented a 7.4% increase on last year's third quarter and a 29.4% increase on the second quarter of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三季度的收益报告定于 10 月 22 日发布，重要的是要像金发姑娘计划在森林中的最后一刻假期一样看待这些结果。在过热的一面，497,099 辆车的交付量比去年第三季度增长了 7.4%，比 2025 年第二季度增长了 29.4%。</p>
</div><p>However, as most investors are aware, federal tax credits for new and used electric vehicles (EVs) expired on Sept. 30, and there's likely a significant pull forward in sales into the third quarter, and away from the fourth quarter. This is highly likely to lead to a significant sequential decline in Tesla deliveries in the fourth quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，正如大多数投资者所知，新的和二手电动车（EV）的联邦税收抵免在 9 月 30 日到期，销售很可能在第三季度大幅提前，而不是在第四季度。这很可能导致特斯拉在第四季度的交付量显著下降。</p>
</div><p>On the too-cold side of the argument, Tesla doesn't just generate sales in the U.S., so the EV federal tax credit issue won't impact all of its sales. Based on publicly available figures, Tesla generated 62.6% of its sales by volume internationally in the second quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在论点的过冷一面，特斯拉不仅在美国产生销售，因此电动车联邦税收抵免问题不会影响其所有销售。根据公开可用的数据，特斯拉在第二季度的销售量中有 62.6% 来自国际市场。</p>
</div><p>In other words, Tesla's sales might not be <em>that</em> bad on a sequential basis in the fourth quarter, and Wall Street analysts are likely to ask CEO Elon Musk about the cadence of sales in the U.S. in the first few weeks of October during the earnings call -- something to watch for.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，特斯拉在第四季度的销售在环比上可能并不会那么糟糕，华尔街分析师可能会在财报电话会议中询问首席执行官埃隆·马斯克关于 10 月前几周美国销售的节奏——这是值得关注的内容。</p>
</div><h2>2. Tesla will update on a new, lower-cost model</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 特斯拉将更新一款新的低成本车型</h2>
</div><p>With the general drift in the EV automaking world toward fewer incentives and higher pricing, particularly as interest rates remain relatively high, EV companies need to lower the prices of EVs. That's one reason why the market got excited when Tesla disclosed that it began production of a lower-cost Model Y (Tesla's best-selling model) in the first half and would ramp production slowly in the third quarter, ready for launch in the fourth quarter after the tax credit expired.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着电动车制造行业普遍朝着减少激励和提高价格的方向发展，尤其是在利率相对较高的情况下，电动车公司需要降低电动车的价格。这就是为什么当特斯拉披露它在上半年开始生产一款低成本的 Model Y（特斯拉最畅销的车型）并将在第三季度逐步提高产量，为第四季度的发布做好准备时，市场感到兴奋的原因之一。</p>
</div><p>This is essential because EVs have significantly lower fuel and maintenance costs compared to internal combustion engine or hybrid cars; therefore, a reduction in the up-front cost will have a substantially greater impact on the vehicle's lifetime cost. Moreover, it could make Tesla eligible for incentives like the U.K.'s electric car grant of up to $5,000 for new vehicles priced at less than $49,600.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这至关重要，因为电动车的燃料和维护成本显著低于内燃机或混合动力汽车；因此，前期成本的降低将对车辆的生命周期成本产生更大的影响。此外，这可能使特斯拉有资格获得像英国电动车补助金这样的激励，补助金额高达 5,000 美元，适用于价格低于 49,600 美元的新车。</p>
</div><h2>3. Tesla's latest version of full self-driving software</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 特斯拉最新版本的全自动驾驶软件</h2>
</div><p>The launch of Tesla's latest supervised full self-driving (FSD) update (version 14) highlights the key to the medium-term investment case -- the potential for robotaxis and unsupervised FSD to lead to a dramatic increase in revenue and earnings in future years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉最新的监督全自动驾驶（FSD）更新（版本 14）的推出突显了中期投资案例的关键——无监督的机器人出租车和全自动驾驶有潜力在未来几年带来显著的收入和收益增长。</p>
</div><p>The excitement centers on the commercial potential of unsupervised robotaxis for ride-sharing revenue for Tesla, whether via its dedicated Cybercab (set for volume production in 2026) or Tesla vehicles transformed via (as-yet unreleased or approved) unsupervised FSD.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>兴奋的焦点在于无监督机器人出租车的商业潜力，这将为特斯拉带来共享出行的收入，无论是通过其专用的 Cybercab（计划在 2026 年进行大规模生产）还是通过（尚未发布或批准的）无监督 FSD 改造的特斯拉车辆。</p>
</div><p>To achieve either milestone, Tesla will need to enhance its FSD offering. For that, it requires data on miles driven to improve its neural networks continually, and eliminate so-called &#34;edge case&#34; issues that involve complex driving situations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要实现任何一个里程碑，特斯拉需要增强其 FSD 产品。为此，它需要关于行驶里程的数据，以不断改善其神经网络，并消除涉及复杂驾驶情况的所谓 “边缘案例” 问题。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY4ODQvdHdvLXRlc2xhcy1pbi1hLWxpbmUtZHJpdmluZy1vbi1yb2FkLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F836884%2Ftwo-teslas-in-a-line-driving-on-road.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><p>The good news is that no other company comes even close to Tesla's data. For example, <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Waymo was reported to have driven 100 million fully autonomous miles in the summer, compared to approximately Tesla's 4.5 billion miles at the end of the second quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，没有其他公司能与特斯拉的数据相提并论。例如，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Waymo 在夏季报告称已行驶 1 亿英里完全自主的里程，而特斯拉在第二季度末的行驶里程约为 45 亿英里。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, much of the newer data from Tesla will come from hardware 4 vehicles (faster processing power, higher camera resolution, better night clarity, and a broader field of view), which started shipping in 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，特斯拉的新数据大部分将来自硬件 4 车辆（更快的处理能力、更高的摄像头分辨率、更好的夜间清晰度和更广的视野），这些车辆于 2023 年开始交付。</p>
</div><h2>Why Tesla stock is a buy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么特斯拉股票值得买入</h2>
</div><p>The ongoing robotaxi rollout, the new FSD version confirming the strength of Tesla's data advantage, a lower-cost model, and the potential for Tesla's sales to surpass a low bar of expectations in the fourth quarter collectively make the bull case for the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持续的机器人出租车推广、新的 FSD 版本确认了特斯拉的数据优势、低成本车型以及特斯拉在第四季度的销售有潜力超过低预期，共同构成了对该股票的看涨理由。</p>
</div><p>As ever, investors should note that there are no guarantees that fully autonomous robotaxis or publicly available unsupervised FSD will come to fruition, or even do so in a timely fashion. As such, Tesla is a speculative stock, but such stocks often warrant a small allocation in the riskier end of an investor's portfolio because the upside can be significant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一如既往，投资者应注意，完全自主的机器人出租车或公开可用的无监督 FSD 是否会实现，甚至是否会及时实现，都是没有保证的。因此，特斯拉是一只投机性股票，但这样的股票通常在投资者的投资组合中风险较高的部分值得小额配置，因为其上行潜力可能很大。</p>
</div>

Here's Why Tesla Stock Is a Buy Before Oct. 22

- 特斯拉第三季度交付量为 497,099 辆，同比增长 7.4%。  
- 由于联邦税收抵免到期，第四季度交付量可能显著下降。  
- 特斯拉将推出低成本 Model Y 和最新的全自动驾驶软件，增强市场竞争力。

以下是特斯拉股票在 10 月 22 日之前值得买入的原因