<p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 1.68%) 的命运因对人工智能计算的需求激增而上升。其图形处理单元（GPU）在人工智能训练和推理方面表现出色，导致其芯片价格飙升，因为大型科技公司以英伟达能够生产的速度迅速购买供应。</p>
<p>根据估计，得益于其技术领先，英伟达在云计算平台上租赁的所有人工智能芯片中占据约 80% 的市场份额。这可能仅受限于其向最大客户提供足够芯片的能力。</p>
<p>但其中一位主要客户刚刚签署了一项协议，这可能表明其主导市场份额受到威胁。如果英伟达的其他主要客户也效仿，这可能会成为减缓英伟达股票上涨的理由。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY5OTkvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="420" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY5OTkvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：英伟达。</p>
<h2>英伟达在少数大型科技公司上高度依赖</h2>
<p>尽管英伟达在过去几年中展现了极为可观的收入增长，但这一销售增长仅源于少数客户。事实上，其客户集中度正在增加。上个季度，仅有两位客户就占其总销售额的 39%。其前六大客户占 85%。相比之下，去年同期前两大客户占 25%，前六大客户占不到 66%。</p>
<p>这些客户很可能是 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、OpenAI 和 <strong>甲骨文</strong>，不一定按此顺序。</p>
<p>值得指出的是，并非所有这些客户都是英伟达芯片的最终用户。微软、亚马逊、谷歌母公司和甲骨文都在构建公共云平台，将其计算能力租赁给第三方企业。因此，客户基础相对多样化。尽管如此，甲骨文的云建设与 OpenAI 服务的需求日益紧密相关，而微软与这一生成式人工智能领导者的关系也早已密切。</p>
<p>但 OpenAI 正在表明，它可能不会在未来过于依赖英伟达。尽管与英伟达签署了一项价值高达 1000 亿美元的资本投资协议以购买英伟达 GPU，OpenAI 刚刚与竞争对手 <strong>超微</strong>(AMD -1.25%) 签署了一项重大协议。该合同赋予 OpenAI 在满足某些购买要求（以及其他要求）后以每股 0.01 美元的价格购买 AMD 股票的权利。</p>
<p>OpenAI 计划在多年的时间内部署 6 吉瓦的 AMD GPU。每购买 1 吉瓦的 AMD 芯片，OpenAI 就会获得一批购买 AMD 股票的权利。实际上，AMD 正在给 OpenAI 的芯片提供折扣，同时进一步巩固其在人工智能生态系统中的地位。作为参考，英伟达与 OpenAI 的协议将在 OpenAI 购买 10 吉瓦 GPU 时完全生效。因此，英伟达仍然有能力为 OpenAI 提供大部分计算能力，但其主导份额正在下降。</p>
<h2>这可能只是新趋势的开始</h2>
<p>OpenAI 与 AMD 的协议可能是这家竞争对手 GPU 制造商众多协议中的一个。该协议依赖于 AMD 即将推出的 MI450 系列 GPU，预计将在英伟达的 Rubin 架构推出时发布。AMD 对 MI450 的性能充满信心，认为其在训练和推理方面将超越英伟达，这一说法颇具挑战性。至少，分析师预计其性能将具有竞争力，这应该足以从英伟达那里获得显著的市场份额。</p>
<p>超大规模云服务商需要 AMD 作为对抗英伟达的平衡力量，后者目前拥有巨大的定价权。如果 MI450 如管理层所声称的那样强大，这可能意味着不仅 OpenAI，英伟达的其他主要客户也将发生巨大的支出转变。AMD 正在构建机架级系统，应该能让客户轻松切换。</p>
<p>此外，英伟达的客户也在开发定制硅解决方案方面取得进展。微软计划对其下一代 Maia300 芯片进行重大投资，计划在夏季重新设计，以利用更先进的技术。Meta 同样在努力扩大其定制 MTIA 芯片在生成式人工智能用例中的应用。而 OpenAI 则计划开发定制硅解决方案，正与 <strong>博通</strong> 合作， reportedly 计划在定制 AI 加速器设计上投入 100 亿美元。</p>
<p>虽然投资者不应期待英伟达的最大客户完全抛弃它，但逐渐减少对英伟达的依赖的趋势正在加速。OpenAI 与 AMD 的协议可能只是一个开始。考虑到股票的前瞻市盈率超过 40，鉴于客户逐渐远离这家 GPU 巨头，股票看起来相对昂贵。</p>

<p>英伟达在人工智能芯片市场的主导地位受到威胁，因为 OpenAI 与 AMD 签署了一项重要协议，允许购买 AMD 的 GPU。这项协议包括对 AMD 股票的认购权，表明对英伟达的依赖可能会发生转变。目前，英伟达的主要客户占其销售额的很大一部分，但随着 AMD 等竞争对手的崛起，英伟达的市场份额可能会下降。在这些变化中，英伟达的前瞻市盈率较高，其股票可能被高估</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.68%) has seen its fortunes rise on the back of surging demand for artificial intelligence compute. Its graphics processing units (GPUs) stand out as best in class when it comes to AI training and inference, which has resulted in soaring prices for its chips as big tech buys up supply as fast as Nvidia can make them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 1.68%) 的命运因对人工智能计算的需求激增而上升。其图形处理单元（GPU）在人工智能训练和推理方面表现出色，导致其芯片价格飙升，因为大型科技公司以英伟达能够生产的速度迅速购买供应。</p>
</div><p>Thanks to its technology lead, Nvidia commands a market share of around 80% of all AI chips for rent on cloud computing platforms, according to estimates. And that might only be limited by its ability to supply enough chips to its biggest customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据估计，得益于其技术领先，英伟达在云计算平台上租赁的所有人工智能芯片中占据约 80% 的市场份额。这可能仅受限于其向最大客户提供足够芯片的能力。</p>
</div><p>But one of those major customers just signed a deal that could signal that dominant market share is under threat. And if Nvidia's other major customers follow suit, it could be reason to pump the brakes on Nvidia's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但其中一位主要客户刚刚签署了一项协议，这可能表明其主导市场份额受到威胁。如果英伟达的其他主要客户也效仿，这可能会成为减缓英伟达股票上涨的理由。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY5OTkvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F836999%2Fnvidia-headquarters-outside-with-black-nvidia-sign-with-nvidia-logo.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：英伟达。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia is heavily reliant on just a handful of big tech names</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达在少数大型科技公司上高度依赖</h2>
</div><p>While Nvidia has exhibited extremely impressive revenue growth over the last few years, that sales growth stems from just a handful of customers. In fact, its customer concentration is increasing. Last quarter, just two customers accounted for 39% of its total sales. Its top six customers accounted for 85%. That's compared to 25% from its top two customers and less than 66% from its top six customers in the year-ago period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管英伟达在过去几年中展现了极为可观的收入增长，但这一销售增长仅源于少数客户。事实上，其客户集中度正在增加。上个季度，仅有两位客户就占其总销售额的 39%。其前六大客户占 85%。相比之下，去年同期前两大客户占 25%，前六大客户占不到 66%。</p>
</div><p>Those customers are very likely <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, OpenAI, and <strong>Oracle</strong>, not necessarily in that order.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些客户很可能是 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、OpenAI 和 <strong>甲骨文</strong>，不一定按此顺序。</p>
</div><p>It's worth pointing out that not all of those customers are the end users for Nvidia's chips. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Oracle are all building out public cloud platforms, renting out their compute capacity to third-party businesses. As a result, the customer base is a bit more diverse. That said, Oracle's cloud buildout is increasingly tied to demand of OpenAI services, while Microsoft has long been intertwined with the generative AI leader.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得指出的是，并非所有这些客户都是英伟达芯片的最终用户。微软、亚马逊、谷歌母公司和甲骨文都在构建公共云平台，将其计算能力租赁给第三方企业。因此，客户基础相对多样化。尽管如此，甲骨文的云建设与 OpenAI 服务的需求日益紧密相关，而微软与这一生成式人工智能领导者的关系也早已密切。</p>
</div><p>But OpenAI is signaling it might not rely so much on Nvidia going forward. Despite signing a big deal to buy Nvidia GPUs in exchange for up to $100 billion in capital investment from the GPU leader, OpenAI just signed a huge deal with rival GPU maker <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>(AMD -1.25%). The contract gives OpenAI warrants to buy shares of AMD at $0.01 per share upon meeting certain purchase requirements of AMD chips (among other requirements).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 OpenAI 正在表明，它可能不会在未来过于依赖英伟达。尽管与英伟达签署了一项价值高达 1000 亿美元的资本投资协议以购买英伟达 GPU，OpenAI 刚刚与竞争对手 <strong>超微</strong>(AMD -1.25%) 签署了一项重大协议。该合同赋予 OpenAI 在满足某些购买要求（以及其他要求）后以每股 0.01 美元的价格购买 AMD 股票的权利。</p>
</div><p>OpenAI plans to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs over a multiyear period. It receives a tranche of warrants to buy AMD stock for each gigawatt it buys. In effect, AMD is giving OpenAI a discount on its chips while further entrenching itself in the AI ecosystem. For reference, Nvidia's deal with AI will fully vest if OpenAI buys 10 gigawatts of GPUs. So Nvidia's still in a position to supply the majority of OpenAI's compute, but its dominant share is slipping.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OpenAI 计划在多年的时间内部署 6 吉瓦的 AMD GPU。每购买 1 吉瓦的 AMD 芯片，OpenAI 就会获得一批购买 AMD 股票的权利。实际上，AMD 正在给 OpenAI 的芯片提供折扣，同时进一步巩固其在人工智能生态系统中的地位。作为参考，英伟达与 OpenAI 的协议将在 OpenAI 购买 10 吉瓦 GPU 时完全生效。因此，英伟达仍然有能力为 OpenAI 提供大部分计算能力，但其主导份额正在下降。</p>
</div><h2>This could be just the start of a new trend</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这可能只是新趋势的开始</h2>
</div><p>OpenAI's deal with AMD could be one of many for the rival GPU maker. The deal hinges on AMD's forthcoming MI450 line of GPUs, which should come out around the same time as Nvidia's Rubin architecture. AMD is confident that the MI450 will outperform Nvidia in both training and inference, which is a bold claim. At the very least, analysts expect its performance to be competitive, which should be good enough to garner significant market share gains from Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OpenAI 与 AMD 的协议可能是这家竞争对手 GPU 制造商众多协议中的一个。该协议依赖于 AMD 即将推出的 MI450 系列 GPU，预计将在英伟达的 Rubin 架构推出时发布。AMD 对 MI450 的性能充满信心，认为其在训练和推理方面将超越英伟达，这一说法颇具挑战性。至少，分析师预计其性能将具有竞争力，这应该足以从英伟达那里获得显著的市场份额。</p>
</div><p>Hyperscalers need AMD as a counterbalance to Nvidia, which currently holds tremendous pricing power. If the MI450 is as powerful as management claims, it could mean a huge shift in spending not just from OpenAI, but from Nvidia's other major customers as well. AMD is building rack-level systems that should make it easy for customers to make the switch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>超大规模云服务商需要 AMD 作为对抗英伟达的平衡力量，后者目前拥有巨大的定价权。如果 MI450 如管理层所声称的那样强大，这可能意味着不仅 OpenAI，英伟达的其他主要客户也将发生巨大的支出转变。AMD 正在构建机架级系统，应该能让客户轻松切换。</p>
</div><p>On top of that, Nvidia's customers are also making progress in developing custom silicon solutions. Microsoft is planning to make a significant investment in its next generation Maia300 chip, redesigning it this summer to take advantage of more advanced technology. Meta, likewise, is working to expand the use cases for its custom MTIA chips to generative AI use cases. And OpenAI is planning to develop a custom silicon solution. It's partnering with <strong>Broadcom</strong>, reportedly planning to spend $10 billion on a custom AI accelerator design.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，英伟达的客户也在开发定制硅解决方案方面取得进展。微软计划对其下一代 Maia300 芯片进行重大投资，计划在夏季重新设计，以利用更先进的技术。Meta 同样在努力扩大其定制 MTIA 芯片在生成式人工智能用例中的应用。而 OpenAI 则计划开发定制硅解决方案，正与 <strong>博通</strong> 合作， reportedly 计划在定制 AI 加速器设计上投入 100 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>While investors shouldn't expect any of Nvidia's biggest customers to ditch it entirely, the push to move away from relying on Nvidia is gaining momentum. OpenAI's deal with AMD is likely just the start. With the stock trading at a forward P/E above 40, shares look expensive given the current potential to see a slowdown in revenue growth as customers move away from the GPU giant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然投资者不应期待英伟达的最大客户完全抛弃它，但逐渐减少对英伟达的依赖的趋势正在加速。OpenAI 与 AMD 的协议可能只是一个开始。考虑到股票的前瞻市盈率超过 40，鉴于客户逐渐远离这家 GPU 巨头，股票看起来相对昂贵。</p>
</div>

One of Nvidia's Biggest Customers Just Struck a Massive Deal That Should Alarm Shareholders

- Nvidia 依赖少数大客户，前两大客户占其销售的 39%。  
- OpenAI 与 AMD 签署协议，可能威胁 Nvidia 的市场份额。  
- 投资者需关注 Nvidia 收入增长放缓的风险。  

Motley Fool

英伟达

GraniteShares 2x Long AMD Daily ETF

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

英伟达的一个重要客户刚刚达成了一项重大交易，这可能会引起股东的担忧