<p>2025 年最令人兴奋的首次公开募股（IPO）是什么？我会投票给 <strong>CoreWeave</strong>（CRWV -3.32%）。它的 IPO 是自 2021 年以来科技股中最大的。</p>
<p>当然，CoreWeave 不得不降低其计划的 IPO 股价。然而，这更多是由于更广泛的市场逆风，而不是与公司本身相关的因素。无论如何，CoreWeave 的股票表现依然非常出色。它在今年的大型股赢家中名列前茅。</p>
<p>但这一切现在都已成过去。CoreWeave 的股票在五年后会在哪里呢？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzcxMzIvYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWktb24tY2xvdWQtY2lyY3VpdC1ib2FyZC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzcxMzIvYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWktb24tY2xvdWQtY2lyY3VpdC1ib2FyZC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>CoreWeave 的未来在很大程度上取决于三个关键因素</h2>
<p>要对 CoreWeave 的前景做出明智的猜测，我们首先必须了解它的业务。该公司是少数几家人工智能（AI）超大规模公司的之一。它的唯一关注点是提供旨在支持 AI 系统工作负载的基础设施，特别是生成式 AI 应用。</p>
<p>影响 CoreWeave 股票在 2030 年表现的最重要因素几乎肯定是未来十年对 AI 基础设施的需求有多强劲。就目前而言，前景看起来非常好。证据是 CoreWeave 在最新季度的收入同比增长了三倍以上。</p>
<p>接下来，我认为是 CoreWeave 能否跟上需求。首席执行官兼联合创始人 Michael Intrator 在公司第二季度的更新中表示：“我们正在快速扩张，以满足对 AI 的前所未有的需求。” 如此大规模的扩展是昂贵的。这是 CoreWeave 仍然处于亏损状态的主要原因。</p>
<p>电力供应也可能成为一个限制因素。咨询巨头德勤估计，到 2035 年，美国 AI 数据中心的电力需求可能会激增超过 30 倍，达到 123 吉瓦。</p>
<p>CoreWeave 的未来还取决于第三个因素：竞争。这家超大规模公司的竞争对手包括一些拥有极其深厚资金的大公司。如果 AI 基础设施的需求放缓，竞争威胁可能会变得更加明显。</p>
<h2>潜在情景</h2>
<p>考虑到这些因素，让我们探讨几个 CoreWeave 的潜在情景。我将从最乐观的情景开始。</p>
<h3>由 AI 进步推动的 AI 基础设施需求爆炸</h3>
<p>到目前为止，我们看到的 AI 需求可能只是冰山一角。代理 AI 仍处于早期采用阶段。人工通用智能（AGI）和人工超级智能（ASI）不再是科幻小说的内容。主要公司正在大量投资开发这些改变游戏规则的 AI 突破。</p>
<p>在这种情景下，CoreWeave 的增长将是令人印象深刻的。到 2030 年，该公司可能会产生超过 2000 亿美元的收入。以当前互联网服务和基础设施行业的平均市销率 8 计算，这将使 CoreWeave 的市值至少达到 1.6 万亿美元——在五年内增长约 23 倍。</p>
<p>不过，这种情景中的一个变数是，最大的超大规模公司可能会将 CoreWeave 视为一个有吸引力的收购目标，以提升他们自己的能力。收购价格将取决于潜在收购的时机：在 AI 基础设施爆炸的早期，收购 CoreWeave 的成本将会更低。</p>
<h3>稳定的 AI 基础设施需求增长</h3>
<p>在这种情景下，AI 基础设施需求将继续以稳健（尽管不是爆炸性）的速度增长。我们可能不会在未来五年内看到 AGI 或 ASI 的出现。然而，代理 AI 可能会获得更广泛的采用。</p>
<p>我认为在这种情景下，CoreWeave 的收入可能会实际达到约 600 亿美元。这个数字反映了与华尔街 2025 年共识收入预估相比，增长了约 12 倍。使用行业平均市销率 8，这将使 CoreWeave 的市值约为 4800 亿美元。其股价需要增长近 7 倍才能达到这一水平。</p>
<h3>衰退的 AI 基础设施需求增长</h3>
<p>现在，假设 AI 基础设施需求急剧减弱。这种情景对 CoreWeave 来说可能是毁灭性的。其股票价格已经包含了显著的增长，市销率为 19。</p>
<p>如果 CoreWeave 跌至当前行业平均市销率，其股票可能至少会暴跌 50%。然而，我怀疑如果 AI 基础设施需求减缓，平均水平本身也会大幅下降。在这种情景下，CoreWeave 的股价可能会下降 70% 或更多并不是不可能的。</p>
<h2>对 CoreWeave 在 2030 年的预测</h2>
<p>对 CoreWeave 在 2030 年的最简单预测是选择上述中间情景。即使这个情景仍然过于乐观，我也可以轻易地看到 CoreWeave 在十年末的价值至少为 2000 亿美元。在短短五年内增长近 3 倍也算不错。</p>

CRWV

<p>CoreWeave 在 2025 年的首次公开募股具有重要意义，标志着自 2021 年以来最大的科技股首发。公司的未来取决于人工智能基础设施的需求、其扩展能力以及竞争情况。乐观的情况下，如果人工智能需求激增，到 2030 年其市值可能达到 1.6 万亿美元。适度增长的情景则暗示市值为 4800 亿美元，而需求疲软可能使其股价减半。保守估计认为，到 2030 年 CoreWeave 的估值为 2000 亿美元，反映出五年内潜在的三倍增长</p>

<p>What's the most exciting initial public offering (IPO) of 2025? My vote would go to <strong>CoreWeave</strong>(CRWV -3.32%). Its IPO was the biggest for a tech stock since 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年最令人兴奋的首次公开募股（IPO）是什么？我会投票给 <strong>CoreWeave</strong>（CRWV -3.32%）。它的 IPO 是自 2021 年以来科技股中最大的。</p>
</div><p>Sure, CoreWeave had to lower its planned IPO share price. However, that was due more to broader market headwinds than anything related to the company itself. At any rate, CoreWeave stock has nonetheless performed exceptionally well. It ranks among the biggest large-cap winners of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，CoreWeave 不得不降低其计划的 IPO 股价。然而，这更多是由于更广泛的市场逆风，而不是与公司本身相关的因素。无论如何，CoreWeave 的股票表现依然非常出色。它在今年的大型股赢家中名列前茅。</p>
</div><p>But that's all water under the bridge now. Where will CoreWeave stock be in five years?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这一切现在都已成过去。CoreWeave 的股票在五年后会在哪里呢？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzcxMzIvYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWktb24tY2xvdWQtY2lyY3VpdC1ib2FyZC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837132%2Fartificial-intelligence-ai-on-cloud-circuit-board.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>CoreWeave's future largely hinges on three key factors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>CoreWeave 的未来在很大程度上取决于三个关键因素</h2>
</div><p>To make an educated guess about CoreWeave's prospects, we have to first understand its business. The company is one of a handful of artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers. Its sole focus is providing infrastructure designed to support the workloads of AI systems, especially generative AI applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要对 CoreWeave 的前景做出明智的猜测，我们首先必须了解它的业务。该公司是少数几家人工智能（AI）超大规模公司的之一。它的唯一关注点是提供旨在支持 AI 系统工作负载的基础设施，特别是生成式 AI 应用。</p>
</div><p>The most important factor affecting where CoreWeave stock will be in 2030 is almost certainly how strong the demand for AI infrastructure will be through the rest of the decade. As of right now, the prognosis looks great. Exhibit A is that CoreWeave's revenue more than tripled year over year in its latest quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>影响 CoreWeave 股票在 2030 年表现的最重要因素几乎肯定是未来十年对 AI 基础设施的需求有多强劲。就目前而言，前景看起来非常好。证据是 CoreWeave 在最新季度的收入同比增长了三倍以上。</p>
</div><p>Next on the list, in my view, is how well CoreWeave can keep up with the demand. CEO and co-founder Michael Intrator said in the company's Q2 update, &#34;We are scaling rapidly as we look to meet the unprecedented demand for AI.&#34; Such a massive buildout is expensive. That's the main reason CoreWeave remains unprofitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下来，我认为是 CoreWeave 能否跟上需求。首席执行官兼联合创始人 Michael Intrator 在公司第二季度的更新中表示：“我们正在快速扩张，以满足对 AI 的前所未有的需求。” 如此大规模的扩展是昂贵的。这是 CoreWeave 仍然处于亏损状态的主要原因。</p>
</div><p>Electricity supply could also be a constraint. Consulting giant Deloitte estimates that power demand from U.S. AI data centers could skyrocket more than 30x by 2035 to 123 gigawatts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电力供应也可能成为一个限制因素。咨询巨头德勤估计，到 2035 年，美国 AI 数据中心的电力需求可能会激增超过 30 倍，达到 123 吉瓦。</p>
</div><p>CoreWeave's future hinges on a third factor, too: competition. The hyperscaler's rivals include some of the biggest companies on the planet with exceptionally deep pockets. If AI infrastructure demand slows, the competitive threats could become more pronounced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CoreWeave 的未来还取决于第三个因素：竞争。这家超大规模公司的竞争对手包括一些拥有极其深厚资金的大公司。如果 AI 基础设施的需求放缓，竞争威胁可能会变得更加明显。</p>
</div><h2>Potential scenarios</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>潜在情景</h2>
</div><p>With those factors in mind, let's explore a few potential scenarios for CoreWeave. I'll start with the most optimistic one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这些因素，让我们探讨几个 CoreWeave 的潜在情景。我将从最乐观的情景开始。</p>
</div><h3>An explosion in AI infrastructure demand fueled by AI advances</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>由 AI 进步推动的 AI 基础设施需求爆炸</h3>
</div><p>The AI demand we've seen thus far could be only the tip of the iceberg. Agentic AI remains in its early stages of adoption. Artificial general intelligence (AGI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI) aren't the stuff of science fiction anymore. Major companies are investing heavily in developing these game-changing AI breakthroughs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，我们看到的 AI 需求可能只是冰山一角。代理 AI 仍处于早期采用阶段。人工通用智能（AGI）和人工超级智能（ASI）不再是科幻小说的内容。主要公司正在大量投资开发这些改变游戏规则的 AI 突破。</p>
</div><p>In this scenario, CoreWeave's growth would be impressive. The company could probably generate revenue of over $200 billion in 2030. At the current average price-to-sales ratio of 8 for the internet services and infrastructure industry, that would translate to a market cap for CoreWeave of at least $1.6 trillion -- a gain of roughly 23x in five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情景下，CoreWeave 的增长将是令人印象深刻的。到 2030 年，该公司可能会产生超过 2000 亿美元的收入。以当前互联网服务和基础设施行业的平均市销率 8 计算，这将使 CoreWeave 的市值至少达到 1.6 万亿美元——在五年内增长约 23 倍。</p>
</div><p>One wrinkle in this scenario, though, is that the biggest hyperscalers could view CoreWeave as an attractive acquisition target to boost their own capacity. The purchase price would depend on the timing of such a potential buyout: The earlier in the AI infrastructure explosion, the less expensive acquiring CoreWeave would be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，这种情景中的一个变数是，最大的超大规模公司可能会将 CoreWeave 视为一个有吸引力的收购目标，以提升他们自己的能力。收购价格将取决于潜在收购的时机：在 AI 基础设施爆炸的早期，收购 CoreWeave 的成本将会更低。</p>
</div><h3>Solid AI infrastructure demand growth</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>稳定的 AI 基础设施需求增长</h3>
</div><p>In this scenario, AI infrastructure demand continues to grow at a robust (although not explosive) pace. We probably wouldn't see AGI or ASI emerge over the next five years. However, agentic AI could gain more widespread adoption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情景下，AI 基础设施需求将继续以稳健（尽管不是爆炸性）的速度增长。我们可能不会在未来五年内看到 AGI 或 ASI 的出现。然而，代理 AI 可能会获得更广泛的采用。</p>
</div><p>I think CoreWeave could realistically rake in revenue in the ballpark of $60 billion in this scenario. That number reflects an increase of around 12x from Wall Street's consensus revenue estimate for 2025. Using the average industry P/S multiple of 8, that would put CoreWeave's market cap at $480 billion or so. Its share price would need to grow nearly 7x to hit that mark.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为在这种情景下，CoreWeave 的收入可能会实际达到约 600 亿美元。这个数字反映了与华尔街 2025 年共识收入预估相比，增长了约 12 倍。使用行业平均市销率 8，这将使 CoreWeave 的市值约为 4800 亿美元。其股价需要增长近 7 倍才能达到这一水平。</p>
</div><h3>Weak AI infrastructure demand growth</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>衰退的 AI 基础设施需求增长</h3>
</div><p>Now, let's suppose AI infrastructure demand tapers off dramatically. This scenario would likely be devastating for CoreWeave. Its stock already has significant growth baked into the share price with a P/S ratio of 19.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，假设 AI 基础设施需求急剧减弱。这种情景对 CoreWeave 来说可能是毁灭性的。其股票价格已经包含了显著的增长，市销率为 19。</p>
</div><p>If CoreWeave fell to the current industry average P/S multiple, its stock could plunge by at least 50%. However, I suspect that the average would itself decline quite a bit if AI infrastructure demand slowed to a crawl. A decline of 70% or more for CoreWeave's share price probably wouldn't be out of the question in this scenario.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 CoreWeave 跌至当前行业平均市销率，其股票可能至少会暴跌 50%。然而，我怀疑如果 AI 基础设施需求减缓，平均水平本身也会大幅下降。在这种情景下，CoreWeave 的股价可能会下降 70% 或更多并不是不可能的。</p>
</div><h2>A prediction for CoreWeave in 2030</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对 CoreWeave 在 2030 年的预测</h2>
</div><p>The easiest prediction for CoreWeave in 2030 is to go with something along the lines of the middle-of-the-road scenario mentioned above. Even if that scenario is still overly optimistic, I could easily see CoreWeave being worth at least $200 billion by the end of the decade. A gain of almost 3x in just five years isn't too shabby.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对 CoreWeave 在 2030 年的最简单预测是选择上述中间情景。即使这个情景仍然过于乐观，我也可以轻易地看到 CoreWeave 在十年末的价值至少为 2000 亿美元。在短短五年内增长近 3 倍也算不错。</p>
</div>

五年后 CoreWeave 的股票将会如何表现？