<p><strong>阿斯麦</strong>(ASML -4.47%) 是全球领先的光刻系统生产商，这些系统用于将电路图案光刻到硅晶圆上。世界上大多数领先的芯片制造商使用其深紫外（DUV）光刻系统来制造较旧和较大的芯片。</p>
<p>这家荷兰科技巨头也是极紫外（EUV）光刻系统的唯一生产商，这些系统是制造世界上最小和最密集芯片所必需的。全球所有领先的代工厂——包括 <strong>台积电</strong>(NYSE: TSM)、三星和 <strong>英特尔</strong>(NASDAQ: INTC)——都使用阿斯麦的 EUV 系统来生产其最先进的芯片。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0MDMvdHdvLXNpbGljb24td2FmZXJzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0MDMvdHdvLXNpbGljb24td2FmZXJzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>阿斯麦对这一关键技术的垄断使其成为半导体市场的关键。市场对人工智能（AI）导向芯片的乐观情绪推动了其今年近 40% 的涨幅——但在 10 月 15 日的下一个财报发布之前，是否值得购买？</p>
<h2>为什么多头重新涌向阿斯麦？</h2>
<p>在 2023 年，阿斯麦的净销售额激增 30%，因为它发运了更多的 DUV 和 EUV 系统，服务收入上升，更多的芯片制造商加大了对 AI 导向芯片的生产。它还逐步推出了最新的 “高 NA” EUV 系统，这些系统用于生产比其当前一代 “低 NA” EUV 系统更小、更密集的芯片。</p>
<p>但在 2024 年，其净销售额仅增长 3%，毛利率持平，每股收益（EPS）下降 3%。这种放缓是由于与 AI 市场初期增长的艰难比较、非 AI 芯片需求疲软以及对其向中国销售高端 DUV 系统的限制加紧（在中国，它已经被禁止销售 EUV 系统）。现有客户在消化现有库存时也订购了更少的新系统。</p>
<p>然而，这种放缓大部分发生在 2024 年上半年。在过去四个季度中，其净销售额和 EPS 以两位数增长，毛利率再次扩大。这一复苏主要受到 DRAM 内存芯片市场的 AI 顺风的推动。</p>
<p>| 指标 | 2024 年第二季度 | 2024 年第三季度 | 2024 年第四季度 | 2025 年第一季度 | 2025 年第二季度 |
| <strong>净销售增长（同比）</strong> | (9.5%) | 11.9% | 28% | 46.4% | 23.2% |
| <strong>毛利率</strong> | 51.5% | 50.8% | 51.7% | 54% | 53.7% |
| <strong>每股收益增长（同比）</strong> | (18.7%) | 9.8% | 31.5% | 92.9% | 47.1% |</p>
<p>数据来源：阿斯麦。以欧元计。同比 = 年同比。</p>
<p>阿斯麦在应对特朗普政府不可预测的关税、更加严格的出口限制以及推出高 NA EUV 系统的更高成本的同时实现了这一复苏。全年，它预计净销售额将增长 15%，毛利率将从 51.3% 上升至约 52%。这一乐观前景，加上对更多 AI 相关芯片的需求加速，吸引了更多投资者重新关注阿斯麦，作为半导体市场的平衡投资。</p>
<p>分析师预计阿斯麦的收入和每股收益（EPS）今年将分别增长 14% 和 25%。从 2024 年到 2027 年，他们预计其收入和 EPS 将以 10% 和 16% 的年复合增长率（CAGR）增长。</p>
<h2>阿斯麦能否保持这种势头？</h2>
<p>阿斯麦的未来看起来光明，但一些问题可能会限制其短期收益。首先，其股票在明年的收益预期为 34 倍，并不便宜。多头将争辩说其在光刻市场的主导地位证明了其更高的估值，但空头则声称过多的 AI 炒作已经反映在其股价中。因此，任何短期的波动可能会吓跑多头并压低其股价。</p>
<p>其次，阿斯麦面临许多短期挑战。中国政府刚刚收紧了对 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NASDAQ: NVDA) AI 芯片的进口控制，并对用于制造半导体的稀土元素发布了新的出口限制。美国参议院也通过了对英伟达和 <strong>AMD</strong>(NASDAQ: AMD) AI 芯片销售到中国的新出口限制，而特朗普总统刚刚威胁中国将实施更高的关税。</p>
<p>所有这些压力可能会抑制全球半导体市场的增长，并迫使阿斯麦收紧其短期销售预测。同时，阿斯麦仍需增加支出，以提高其高 NA EUV 系统的生产。如果它警告销售放缓和成本上升，其股价将会下跌。</p>
<h2>在 10 月 15 日之前，你应该购买阿斯麦的股票吗？</h2>
<p>我持有阿斯麦的股票超过四年，但在其第三季度财报发布之前，我不会急于再购买更多股票。相反，可能更明智的是看看它是否在该报告中解决了短期挑战并修订了指引，然后再为其股票支付溢价估值。</p>

阿斯麦

<p>ASML 是一家领先的光刻系统生产商，今年股价上涨近 40%，主要受到对人工智能导向芯片需求的推动。尽管预计全年净销售额将增长 15%，但出口管制收紧和高估值（明年收益的 34 倍）等挑战可能限制短期内的涨幅。分析师预计今年收入和每股收益（EPS）分别增长 14% 和 25%，并预计 2024 年至 2027 年的年均增长率（CAGR）为 10% 和 16%。投资者在 10 月 15 日的财报发布前保持谨慎，权衡潜在风险与 ASML 的市场主导地位</p>

<p><strong>ASML</strong>(ASML -4.47%) is the world's leading producer of lithography systems, which are used to optically etch circuit patterns onto silicon wafers. Most of the world's leading chipmakers use its deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems to manufacture their older and larger chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>阿斯麦</strong>(ASML -4.47%) 是全球领先的光刻系统生产商，这些系统用于将电路图案光刻到硅晶圆上。世界上大多数领先的芯片制造商使用其深紫外（DUV）光刻系统来制造较旧和较大的芯片。</p>
</div><p>The Dutch tech giant is also the only producer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, which are required to manufacture the world's smallest and densest chips. All of the world's leading foundries -- including <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor</strong>(NYSE: TSM), Samsung, and <strong>Intel</strong>(NASDAQ: INTC) -- use ASML's EUV systems to produce their most advanced chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家荷兰科技巨头也是极紫外（EUV）光刻系统的唯一生产商，这些系统是制造世界上最小和最密集芯片所必需的。全球所有领先的代工厂——包括 <strong>台积电</strong>(NYSE: TSM)、三星和 <strong>英特尔</strong>(NASDAQ: INTC)——都使用阿斯麦的 EUV 系统来生产其最先进的芯片。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0MDMvdHdvLXNpbGljb24td2FmZXJzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837403%2Ftwo-silicon-wafers.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>ASML's monopolization of that crucial technology makes it a linchpin of the semiconductor market. The market's bullish enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI)-oriented chips fueled its rally of nearly 40% this year -- but is it worth buying before its next earnings report on Oct. 15?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿斯麦对这一关键技术的垄断使其成为半导体市场的关键。市场对人工智能（AI）导向芯片的乐观情绪推动了其今年近 40% 的涨幅——但在 10 月 15 日的下一个财报发布之前，是否值得购买？</p>
</div><h2>Why did the bulls rush back to ASML?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么多头重新涌向阿斯麦？</h2>
</div><p>In 2023, ASML's net sales surged 30% as it shipped more DUV and EUV systems, its service revenues rose, and more chipmakers ramped up their production of AI-oriented chips. It also gradually rolled out its latest &#34;high-NA&#34; EUV systems, which are used to produce even smaller and denser chips than its current generation of &#34;low-NA&#34; EUV systems.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 年，阿斯麦的净销售额激增 30%，因为它发运了更多的 DUV 和 EUV 系统，服务收入上升，更多的芯片制造商加大了对 AI 导向芯片的生产。它还逐步推出了最新的 “高 NA” EUV 系统，这些系统用于生产比其当前一代 “低 NA” EUV 系统更小、更密集的芯片。</p>
</div><p>But in 2024, its net sales only rose 3%, its gross margin flatlined, and its earnings per share (EPS) fell 3%. That slowdown was caused by tough comparisons to the AI market's initial growth spurt, soft demand for non-AI chips, and tighter restrictions on its sales of higher-end DUV systems to China (where it's already barred from selling EUV systems). Its existing customers also ordered fewer new systems as they worked through their existing inventories.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在 2024 年，其净销售额仅增长 3%，毛利率持平，每股收益（EPS）下降 3%。这种放缓是由于与 AI 市场初期增长的艰难比较、非 AI 芯片需求疲软以及对其向中国销售高端 DUV 系统的限制加紧（在中国，它已经被禁止销售 EUV 系统）。现有客户在消化现有库存时也订购了更少的新系统。</p>
</div><p>However, most of that slowdown occurred in the first half of 2024. Over the past four quarters, its net sales and EPS increased by the double digits as its gross margins expanded again. That recovery was largely driven by AI tailwinds for the DRAM memory chip market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这种放缓大部分发生在 2024 年上半年。在过去四个季度中，其净销售额和 EPS 以两位数增长，毛利率再次扩大。这一复苏主要受到 DRAM 内存芯片市场的 AI 顺风的推动。</p>
</div><p>| Metric | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 |
| <strong>Net Sales Growth (YOY)</strong> | (9.5%) | 11.9% | 28% | 46.4% | 23.2% |
| <strong>Gross Margin</strong> | 51.5% | 50.8% | 51.7% | 54% | 53.7% |
| <strong>EPS Growth (YOY)</strong> | (18.7%) | 9.8% | 31.5% | 92.9% | 47.1% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>| 指标 | 2024 年第二季度 | 2024 年第三季度 | 2024 年第四季度 | 2025 年第一季度 | 2025 年第二季度 |
| <strong>净销售增长（同比）</strong> | (9.5%) | 11.9% | 28% | 46.4% | 23.2% |
| <strong>毛利率</strong> | 51.5% | 50.8% | 51.7% | 54% | 53.7% |
| <strong>每股收益增长（同比）</strong> | (18.7%) | 9.8% | 31.5% | 92.9% | 47.1% |</p>
</div><p>Data source: ASML. In euros. YOY = Year-over-year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：阿斯麦。以欧元计。同比 = 年同比。</p>
</div><p>ASML achieved that recovery even as it grappled with the Trump administration's unpredictable tariffs, tighter export curbs, and the higher costs of rolling out its high-NA EUV systems. For the full year, it expects its net sales to rise 15% as its gross margin rises from 51.3% to about 52%. That bright outlook, along with the accelerating demand for more AI-related chips, drove more investors back toward ASML as a balanced play on the semiconductor market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿斯麦在应对特朗普政府不可预测的关税、更加严格的出口限制以及推出高 NA EUV 系统的更高成本的同时实现了这一复苏。全年，它预计净销售额将增长 15%，毛利率将从 51.3% 上升至约 52%。这一乐观前景，加上对更多 AI 相关芯片的需求加速，吸引了更多投资者重新关注阿斯麦，作为半导体市场的平衡投资。</p>
</div><p>Analysts expect ASML's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to rise 14% and 25%, respectively, this year. From 2024 to 2027, they expect its revenue and EPS to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% and 16%, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预计阿斯麦的收入和每股收益（EPS）今年将分别增长 14% 和 25%。从 2024 年到 2027 年，他们预计其收入和 EPS 将以 10% 和 16% 的年复合增长率（CAGR）增长。</p>
</div><h2>Can ASML maintain that momentum?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>阿斯麦能否保持这种势头？</h2>
</div><p>ASML's future looks bright, but a few issues could cap its near-term gains. First, its stock isn't cheap at 34 times next year's earnings. The bulls will argue that its dominance of the lithography market justifies its higher valuation, but the bears will claim that too much AI hype has been baked into its stock price. Therefore, any near-term hiccups could spook the bulls and sink its stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿斯麦的未来看起来光明，但一些问题可能会限制其短期收益。首先，其股票在明年的收益预期为 34 倍，并不便宜。多头将争辩说其在光刻市场的主导地位证明了其更高的估值，但空头则声称过多的 AI 炒作已经反映在其股价中。因此，任何短期的波动可能会吓跑多头并压低其股价。</p>
</div><p>Second, ASML faces a lot of those near-term challenges. The Chinese government just tightened its import controls on <strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NASDAQ: NVDA) AI chips and issued new export restrictions on its rare earth elements used to manufacture semiconductors. The U.S. Senate also passed new export limits on Nvidia's and <strong>AMD</strong>'s (NASDAQ: AMD) AI chip sales to China, while President Donald Trump just threatened China with even higher tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，阿斯麦面临许多短期挑战。中国政府刚刚收紧了对 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NASDAQ: NVDA) AI 芯片的进口控制，并对用于制造半导体的稀土元素发布了新的出口限制。美国参议院也通过了对英伟达和 <strong>AMD</strong>(NASDAQ: AMD) AI 芯片销售到中国的新出口限制，而特朗普总统刚刚威胁中国将实施更高的关税。</p>
</div><p>All that pressure could throttle the growth of the global semiconductor market and force ASML to rein in its near-term sales forecasts. At the same time, ASML still needs to increase its spending to ramp up its production of its high-NA EUV systems. If it warns of slowing sales and rising costs, its stock will stumble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些压力可能会抑制全球半导体市场的增长，并迫使阿斯麦收紧其短期销售预测。同时，阿斯麦仍需增加支出，以提高其高 NA EUV 系统的生产。如果它警告销售放缓和成本上升，其股价将会下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy ASML's stock before Oct. 15?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在 10 月 15 日之前，你应该购买阿斯麦的股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>I've owned ASML's stock for more than four years, but I wouldn't rush to accumulate more shares ahead of its third-quarter earnings report. Instead, it might be smarter to see if it addresses its near-term challenges and revises its guidance during that report before paying a premium valuation for its stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我持有阿斯麦的股票超过四年，但在其第三季度财报发布之前，我不会急于再购买更多股票。相反，可能更明智的是看看它是否在该报告中解决了短期挑战并修订了指引，然后再为其股票支付溢价估值。</p>
</div>

在 10 月 15 日之前，ASML 的股票是否值得购买？