<p><strong>比特币</strong>(BTC 0.54%) 今年可能上涨了 30%，但黄金上涨了 50%。这显然不应该发生。在大多数年份，比特币的表现都远超黄金。</p>
<p>那么这里发生了什么？是时候加倍押注比特币，期待在今年晚些时候获得追赶收益吗？还是该逃离，寄希望于黄金实物？让我们仔细看看。</p>
<h2>历史表现</h2>
<p>如果你放远目光，从长期角度来看，选择赢家很简单。根据 <strong>WisdomTree</strong> 的数据，比特币在过去 12 年中有 9 年是全球表现最好的资产类别——通常差距很大。</p>
<p>在比特币价值飙升的年份，黄金几乎无影无踪。例如，在 2023 年，比特币的价值增加了 157%，而黄金仅上涨了 15%。在 2021 年，比特币的价值增加了 60%，但黄金价格下降了 4%。</p>
<p>但问题是：在比特币价值崩溃的年份，你会希望把所有的钱都投入黄金。它无疑是世界上最好的避险资产。在 2022 年，比特币损失了 65% 的价值，但黄金仅微涨 0.4%。在 2018 年，比特币损失了 73% 的价值，但黄金仅下跌了 1%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/dgwL8wZB.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/dgwL8wZB.png"/></p>
<p>iShares 比特币信托 ETF 图表来自 TradingView</p>
<p>自从去年现货比特币 ETF 推出以来，它们的表现显著优于其对应的黄金 ETF。举个例子：<strong>iShares 比特币信托</strong> 自 2024 年 1 月推出以来上涨了 180%。在同一时期，<strong>iShares 黄金信托</strong> 上涨了 97%。</p>
<p>因此，仅仅基于过去的表现，比特币优于黄金。你可以选择过去十年中的任何一组年份，比特币的表现都会超过黄金。当然，唯一的警告是，比特币表现出极端的波动性，通常每隔几年就会损失超过一半的价值。</p>
<h2>哪个是更好的对冲工具？</h2>
<p>近年来，称比特币为 “数字黄金” 已成为一种时尚。这里的思路是，比特币是一种稀缺资产，就像黄金一样。只能存在 2100 万个比特币，而目前已有 1990 万个在流通。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzcxMzAvZ29sZC1iaXRjb2luLXBpbGUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzcxMzAvZ29sZC1iaXRjb2luLXBpbGUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>如果比特币确实是 “数字黄金”，那么它可能像实物黄金一样，能够对抗宏观经济不确定性和地缘政治风险。而这正是目前似乎正在发生的事情。</p>
<p>事实上，华尔街交易员称当前从美元转向比特币和黄金的举动为 “贬值交易”。简而言之，交易员们在押注美元的进一步贬值以及全球法定货币的持续贬值。</p>
<p>这里有多种因素在起作用，包括巨大的财政赤字、对美联储独立性的担忧，以及可能因高额关税导致的失控通胀。归根结底，摆脱当前债务危机的唯一方法可能是印更多的钱，而这只会进一步贬值美元。</p>
<h2>如果黄金突破 4000 美元，比特币会涨到 165,000 美元吗？</h2>
<p>有趣的是，比特币似乎在滞后追踪黄金的趋势。简而言之，如果黄金飙升，那么比特币肯定会在几周后随之上涨。因此，如果你预计黄金很快会突破 4000 美元，那么比特币几乎肯定也会随之大幅上涨。</p>
<p>但会涨到多高？根据 <strong>摩根大通</strong> 的预测，比特币可能在 2025 年涨到 165,000 美元。该银行表示，比特币相对于黄金仍然被低估，因此在今年剩余时间里可能会追赶。一旦你计算数字并调整波动性，比特币相对于黄金可能被低估多达 42%。</p>
<h2>胜者是...</h2>
<p>黄金可能实际上是比特币更好的投资，只要 “贬值交易” 仍在进行。显然，比特币落后于黄金，大多数交易员仍然将黄金视为对抗宏观经济不确定性和地缘政治风险的终极对冲工具。</p>
<p>但从长远来看，我宁愿选择比特币。如果历史可以作为任何指导，比特币在未来十年中应该会继续超越黄金。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特币今年上涨了 30%，而黄金则上涨了 50%。历史上，比特币在过去 12 年中的 9 年里表现优于黄金，成为最佳资产类别。然而，在比特币下跌期间，黄金被证明是更安全的投资。目前，比特币被视为对经济不确定性的对冲，预测到 2025 年其价格可能达到 165,000 美元。尽管黄金目前占据优势，但预计比特币在长期内将超越黄金</p>

<p><strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC 0.54%) may be up 30% this year, but gold is up 50%. That's simply not supposed to happen. In most years, Bitcoin has trounced the performance of gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特币</strong>(BTC 0.54%) 今年可能上涨了 30%，但黄金上涨了 50%。这显然不应该发生。在大多数年份，比特币的表现都远超黄金。</p>
</div><p>So what's going on here? Is it time to double down on Bitcoin, with the expectation of catch-up gains later this year? Or is it time to run for the hills and put your faith in gold bullion? Let's take a closer look.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么这里发生了什么？是时候加倍押注比特币，期待在今年晚些时候获得追赶收益吗？还是该逃离，寄希望于黄金实物？让我们仔细看看。</p>
</div><h2>Historical performance</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>历史表现</h2>
</div><p>If you zoom out and take a long-term perspective, it's easy to pick a winner. According to data from <strong>WisdomTree</strong>, Bitcoin has been the top-performing asset class in the world in 9 of the past 12 years -- often by a wide margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你放远目光，从长期角度来看，选择赢家很简单。根据 <strong>WisdomTree</strong> 的数据，比特币在过去 12 年中有 9 年是全球表现最好的资产类别——通常差距很大。</p>
</div><p>In years that Bitcoin has surged in value, gold has been nowhere to be found. For example, in 2023, Bitcoin increased in value by 157%, while gold rose by only 15%. In 2021, Bitcoin increased in value by 60%, but the price of gold declined by 4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在比特币价值飙升的年份，黄金几乎无影无踪。例如，在 2023 年，比特币的价值增加了 157%，而黄金仅上涨了 15%。在 2021 年，比特币的价值增加了 60%，但黄金价格下降了 4%。</p>
</div><p>But here's the thing: In the years that Bitcoin collapsed in value, you wanted to have all your money in gold. It was simply the best safe-haven asset in the world. In 2022, Bitcoin lost 65% of its value, but gold was up a very modest 0.4%. In 2018, Bitcoin lost 73% of its value, but gold was only down 1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但问题是：在比特币价值崩溃的年份，你会希望把所有的钱都投入黄金。它无疑是世界上最好的避险资产。在 2022 年，比特币损失了 65% 的价值，但黄金仅微涨 0.4%。在 2018 年，比特币损失了 73% 的价值，但黄金仅下跌了 1%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/dgwL8wZB.png" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/dgwL8wZB.png"/></p>
<p>iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF chart by TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>iShares 比特币信托 ETF 图表来自 TradingView</p>
</div><p>Ever since the spot Bitcoin ETFs launched last year, they have significantly outperformed their counterpart gold ETFs. Case in point: The <strong>iShares Bitcoin Trust</strong> is up a robust 180% since launching in January 2024. In that same time period, the <strong>iShares Gold Trust</strong> is up 97%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自从去年现货比特币 ETF 推出以来，它们的表现显著优于其对应的黄金 ETF。举个例子：<strong>iShares 比特币信托</strong> 自 2024 年 1 月推出以来上涨了 180%。在同一时期，<strong>iShares 黄金信托</strong> 上涨了 97%。</p>
</div><p>So, solely based on past performance, Bitcoin gets the nod over gold. You can pick just about any set of years you want over the past decade, and Bitcoin will outperform gold. The only caveat, of course, is that Bitcoin has exhibited extreme volatility, and can usually be counted on to lose more than half its value every few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，仅仅基于过去的表现，比特币优于黄金。你可以选择过去十年中的任何一组年份，比特币的表现都会超过黄金。当然，唯一的警告是，比特币表现出极端的波动性，通常每隔几年就会损失超过一半的价值。</p>
</div><h2>Which is the better hedge?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>哪个是更好的对冲工具？</h2>
</div><p>In recent years, it has become fashionable to refer to Bitcoin as &#34;digital gold.&#34; The thinking here is that Bitcoin is a scarce asset, just like gold. Only 21 million bitcoins can ever exist, and 19.9 million are already in circulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年来，称比特币为 “数字黄金” 已成为一种时尚。这里的思路是，比特币是一种稀缺资产，就像黄金一样。只能存在 2100 万个比特币，而目前已有 1990 万个在流通。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzcxMzAvZ29sZC1iaXRjb2luLXBpbGUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837130%2Fgold-bitcoin-pile.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>If it is indeed &#34;digital gold,&#34; Bitcoin might be able to act as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risk, just like physical gold. And that's exactly what appears to be happening right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果比特币确实是 “数字黄金”，那么它可能像实物黄金一样，能够对抗宏观经济不确定性和地缘政治风险。而这正是目前似乎正在发生的事情。</p>
</div><p>In fact, Wall Street traders are calling the current move out of dollars and into Bitcoin and gold the &#34;debasement trade.&#34; To make a long story short, traders are betting on the further devaluation of the U.S. dollar and the ongoing debasement of fiat currencies worldwide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，华尔街交易员称当前从美元转向比特币和黄金的举动为 “贬值交易”。简而言之，交易员们在押注美元的进一步贬值以及全球法定货币的持续贬值。</p>
</div><p>There is a mix of factors at work here, including huge fiscal deficits, concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, and potential runaway inflation from sky-high tariffs. At the end of the day, the only way out of the current debt crisis may be to print more money, and that will only devalue the dollar even more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里有多种因素在起作用，包括巨大的财政赤字、对美联储独立性的担忧，以及可能因高额关税导致的失控通胀。归根结底，摆脱当前债务危机的唯一方法可能是印更多的钱，而这只会进一步贬值美元。</p>
</div><h2>If gold zooms past $4,000, then Bitcoin goes to $165,000?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如果黄金突破 4000 美元，比特币会涨到 165,000 美元吗？</h2>
</div><p>Interestingly, Bitcoin appears to be tracking gold trends, but on a lagging basis. In short, if gold soars higher, then Bitcoin is sure to go along for the ride -- a few weeks later. Thus, if you are expecting gold to soar through the $4,000 level soon, then Bitcoin is almost certainly poised to surge higher as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有趣的是，比特币似乎在滞后追踪黄金的趋势。简而言之，如果黄金飙升，那么比特币肯定会在几周后随之上涨。因此，如果你预计黄金很快会突破 4000 美元，那么比特币几乎肯定也会随之大幅上涨。</p>
</div><p>But how high? According to <strong>JPMorgan Chase</strong>, Bitcoin could rise to $165,000 in 2025. According to the bank, Bitcoin remains undervalued compared to gold, so it's likely to play catch-up for the remainder of the year. Once you run the numbers and adjust for volatility, then Bitcoin could be as much as 42% undervalued relative to gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但会涨到多高？根据 <strong>摩根大通</strong> 的预测，比特币可能在 2025 年涨到 165,000 美元。该银行表示，比特币相对于黄金仍然被低估，因此在今年剩余时间里可能会追赶。一旦你计算数字并调整波动性，比特币相对于黄金可能被低估多达 42%。</p>
</div><h2>And the winner is...</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>胜者是...</h2>
</div><p>Gold might actually be a better investment than Bitcoin right now as long as the &#34;debasement trade&#34; is in play. It's clear that Bitcoin is lagging behind gold, and that most traders still view gold as the ultimate hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金可能实际上是比特币更好的投资，只要 “贬值交易” 仍在进行。显然，比特币落后于黄金，大多数交易员仍然将黄金视为对抗宏观经济不确定性和地缘政治风险的终极对冲工具。</p>
</div><p>But over the long haul, I'd rather be in Bitcoin. If history is any guide, Bitcoin should continue to outshine gold over the next decade as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但从长远来看，我宁愿选择比特币。如果历史可以作为任何指导，比特币在未来十年中应该会继续超越黄金。</p>
</div>

更佳的投资选择：比特币还是黄金