<p>欧洲股市上涨，美国股指期货坚挺</p>
<p>美国和日本因假期休市</p>
<p>市场希望美中贸易战能达成妥协</p>
<p>黄金价格创下新高</p>
<p>（更新价格、黄金预测和法国政治）</p>
<p>作者：Dhara Ranasinghe</p>
<p>伦敦，10 月 13 日（路透社）- 世界市场在经历了美中贸易战的剧烈波动后，周一找到了更为稳定的立足点，而黄金价格则创下新高，显示出不确定性依然很高。</p>
<p>尽管美国总统特朗普曾威胁从 11 月 1 日起对中国征收 100% 的关税，而北京表示可能采取反制措施，但他在周日的表态显得更加和解，表示美国不想 “伤害” 中国。</p>
<p>欧洲股市普遍上涨（.STOXX），而美国股指期货也有所坚挺，尽管由于日本和美国的假期，交易较为清淡。</p>
<p>法国依然备受关注，重新任命的总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努面临着达成预算协议的压力。</p>
<p>“市场的稳定令人鼓舞，” 伦敦 Wren Sterling 的首席投资官罗里·麦克弗森表示。</p>
<p>“考虑到（美国政府）停摆和法国、日本的政治动荡，市场表现强劲。回调将是健康的。”</p>
<p>北京在周日为其对稀土元素和设备出口的限制辩护，称这是对美国侵略行为的回应，但并未对美国产品征收新的关税。</p>
<p>高盛首席经济学家扬·哈齐乌斯表示，尽管他仍然预计当前关税暂停将延长，但最近的发展表明可能出现更广泛的结果。</p>
<h3>日本领导层现在面临疑问</h3>
<p>日本市场面临自己的问题，新自民党领导人高市早苗的首相职位现在变得不确定，这导致日元大幅反弹，周五日经指数期货下跌 5%。</p>
<p>日本日经指数（.N225）周一休市，而 MSCI 亚太地区（日本除外）股票指数（.MIAPJ0000PUS）下跌 1.5%。</p>
<p>中国蓝筹股（.CSI300）下跌 0.5%，尽管稀土和半导体行业均有所回升。数据显示贸易表现出一定韧性，出口增长 8.3%，几乎是预期的两倍，进口也大幅上升。</p>
<p>在全球不确定性依然强烈的迹象下，黄金价格突破每盎司 4000 美元（XAU=）的新高，而亚洲股市则大幅下跌。</p>
<p>美国银行商品分析师在周一的一份报告中表示，他们将明年的黄金价格预测从 4400 美元上调至 5000 美元每盎司。</p>
<p>美国股指期货指向华尔街的反弹，标准普尔 500 和纳斯达克股指期货（ESc1）（NQc1）均上涨超过 1%。尽管纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克在哥伦布日假期开放交易，但债券市场休市。</p>
<p>本周财报季拉开帷幕，主要银行将公布业绩，包括摩根大通（JPM.N）、高盛（GS.N）、富国银行（WFC.N）和花旗集团（C.N）。</p>
<p>根据 LSEG IBES 的数据显示，标准普尔 500 公司的整体盈利预计在第三季度同比增长 8.8%，强劲的业绩将是市场高估值的必要条件。</p>
<p>“我们的猜测是，至少在短期内，某些风险资产可能会出现更为波动和无方向的环境。最终，是否在这种环境中逆势而为取决于你的信念，” Lombard Odier 的高级宏观策略师霍敏·李表示。</p>
<p>法国动荡 政治阴云笼罩欧洲，法国总统府周日宣布勒科尔努的新内阁成员，重新任命了埃马纽埃尔·马克龙的亲密盟友罗兰·莱斯库尔为财政部长。</p>
<p>勒科尔努最有可能在周四面临不信任投票，目前尚不清楚他是否拥有生存所需的票数。</p>
<p>法国 10 年期国债收益率小幅变化，约为 3.47%（FR10YT=RR），法国股市上涨 0.5%，显示投资者对近期政治稳定的希望依然存在。</p>
<p>“即使，假如勒科尔努在任期内比第一次任期更长，他也将面临艰巨的任务，必须在年底之前通过分裂的议会通过 2026 年的预算，” Berenberg 的首席经济学家霍尔格·施密丁表示。</p>
<p>货币市场在周五涌入传统避险资产日元和瑞士法郎后也出现了一些稳定。美元上涨 0.6%，至 152 日元（JPY=EBS），周五从 153.29 的高点下滑 1.2%。</p>
<p>欧元下跌 0.25%，至 1.1586 美元（EUR=EBS），而美元对瑞士法郎上涨 0.5%，至 0.8038（CHF=）。美元指数保持稳定（=USD），在周五下跌 0.6% 后。</p>
<p>在债券市场，现金国债因假期休市，而欧洲政府债券收益率小幅上升。</p>
<p>在特朗普周五的关税威胁后，美国和欧洲的债券收益率达到了数周来的低点，投资者增加了对美联储进一步降息的押注。</p>
<p>“有趣的是，债券市场在周五表现良好，这令人鼓舞，因为近期长期债券出现了抛售，” Wren Sterling 的麦克弗森表示。</p>
<p>期货市场暗示美联储本月晚些时候降息 25 个基点的概率约为 98%，而 12 月再次降息的概率也相似。（0#USDIRPR）</p>
<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在周二的 NABE 年会上就经济前景发表讲话，提供指导。</p>
<p>本周还有其他美联储成员出席，以及一众中央银行行长参加在华盛顿举行的国际货币基金组织 - 世界银行会议。</p>
<p>油价也因希望美国和中国能在贸易上找到妥协以避免新的关税而有所回升。（O/R）</p>
<p>布伦特原油（LCOc1）上涨 1.7%，至每桶 63.8 美元，而美国原油（CLc1）上涨 1.9%，至每桶 60 美元。</p>
<p>亚洲股市 此处 亚太估值 此处 现货黄金价格以美元计每盎司</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AUTOMATED-20251013/XAU-COMMODITY-365D-HOURLY/znpnnrwjypl/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="844" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AUTOMATED-20251013/XAU-COMMODITY-365D-HOURLY/znpnnrwjypl/chart.png"/></p>

高盛

<p>全球市场趋于稳定，因为美国总统特朗普对中国的立场有所缓和，缓解了贸易战紧张局势。欧洲股市上涨，而尽管日本放假，美国期货也有所回升。黄金价格创下每盎司超过 4000 美元的历史新高，预测显示明年可能上涨至 5000 美元。法国和日本的政治不确定性加剧了市场波动。本周是财报季，主要银行预计将公布强劲的业绩，这对证明高市场估值至关重要。货币市场显示出稳定，美元对日元和瑞士法郎上涨</p>

<p>European stocks higher, US stock futures firm</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲股市上涨，美国股指期货坚挺</p>
</div><p>US, Japan closed for a holiday</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国和日本因假期休市</p>
</div><p>Markets hope for compromise in US-China trade war</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场希望美中贸易战能达成妥协</p>
</div><p>Gold at fresh record highs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金价格创下新高</p>
</div><p>(Updates prices, gold forecast and French politics)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（更新价格、黄金预测和法国政治）</p>
</div><p>By Dhara Ranasinghe</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Dhara Ranasinghe</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - World markets found steadier ground on Monday after being whipsawed by broadsides in the U.S.-China trade war, while gold hit new record highs in a sign that uncertainty remained high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，10 月 13 日（路透社）- 世界市场在经历了美中贸易战的剧烈波动后，周一找到了更为稳定的立足点，而黄金价格则创下新高，显示出不确定性依然很高。</p>
</div><p>While U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened 100% tariffs on China from November 1 and Beijing said it could take countermeasures, he sounded more conciliatory on Sunday, posting that the U.S. did not want to “hurt” China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美国总统特朗普曾威胁从 11 月 1 日起对中国征收 100% 的关税，而北京表示可能采取反制措施，但他在周日的表态显得更加和解，表示美国不想 “伤害” 中国。</p>
</div><p>European shares were broadly higher (.STOXX) , while U.S. stock futures also firmed although trading was subdued by a holiday in Japan and the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲股市普遍上涨（.STOXX），而美国股指期货也有所坚挺，尽管由于日本和美国的假期，交易较为清淡。</p>
</div><p>France remained in the spotlight with reappointed prime minister Sebastien Lecornu facing pressure to get a budget deal across the line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法国依然备受关注，重新任命的总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努面临着达成预算协议的压力。</p>
</div><p>“The stabilisation in markets is encouraging,” said Rory McPherson, chief investment officer at Wren Sterling in London.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“市场的稳定令人鼓舞，” 伦敦 Wren Sterling 的首席投资官罗里·麦克弗森表示。</p>
</div><p>“Given everything that is going on with the (U.S. government) shutdown, and political turmoil in France and Japan, markets have been strong. A pullback would be healthy.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“考虑到（美国政府）停摆和法国、日本的政治动荡，市场表现强劲。回调将是健康的。”</p>
</div><p>Beijing defended on Sunday its curbs on exports of rare earth elements and equipment as a response to U.S. aggression, but stopped short of imposing new levies on U.S. products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北京在周日为其对稀土元素和设备出口的限制辩护，称这是对美国侵略行为的回应，但并未对美国产品征收新的关税。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said that while he still expected an extension of the current tariff pause, recent developments suggested a wider range of outcomes was possible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛首席经济学家扬·哈齐乌斯表示，尽管他仍然预计当前关税暂停将延长，但最近的发展表明可能出现更广泛的结果。</p>
</div><h3>JAPANESE LEADERSHIP NOW IN DOUBT</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>日本领导层现在面临疑问</h3>
</div><p>Japanese markets had their own problems with the ascension of new LDP leader Sanae Takaichi to prime minister now in doubt, contributing to a sharp rebound in the yen and a 5% dive in Nikkei futures on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本市场面临自己的问题，新自民党领导人高市早苗的首相职位现在变得不确定，这导致日元大幅反弹，周五日经指数期货下跌 5%。</p>
</div><p>Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) was closed on Monday, while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) tumbled 1.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本日经指数（.N225）周一休市，而 MSCI 亚太地区（日本除外）股票指数（.MIAPJ0000PUS）下跌 1.5%。</p>
</div><p>Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) fell 0.5%, though the rare earth and semiconductor sectors both firmed. Data pointed to some resilience in trade with exports rising 8.3%, almost twice the forecast, and imports up strongly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国蓝筹股（.CSI300）下跌 0.5%，尽管稀土和半导体行业均有所回升。数据显示贸易表现出一定韧性，出口增长 8.3%，几乎是预期的两倍，进口也大幅上升。</p>
</div><p>And in a sign that global uncertainties remained strong, gold hit fresh record highs above $4,000 an ounce (XAU=) , while Asia stocks fell sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在全球不确定性依然强烈的迹象下，黄金价格突破每盎司 4000 美元（XAU=）的新高，而亚洲股市则大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>BofA commodities analysts said in a note on Monday that they had raise their forecast for gold to $5,000 an ounce for next year from $4,400.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国银行商品分析师在周一的一份报告中表示，他们将明年的黄金价格预测从 4400 美元上调至 5000 美元每盎司。</p>
</div><p>U.S. stock futures pointed to a rebound on Wall Street, with S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq stock futures (ESc1) (NQc1) up more than 1% each. While the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are open for trade on Monday’s Columbus Day holiday, bond markets are closed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国股指期货指向华尔街的反弹，标准普尔 500 和纳斯达克股指期货（ESc1）（NQc1）均上涨超过 1%。尽管纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克在哥伦布日假期开放交易，但债券市场休市。</p>
</div><p>Earnings season kicks off this week with major banks reporting, including JPMorgan (JPM.N) , Goldman Sachs (GS.N) , Wells Fargo (WFC.N) and Citigroup (C.N) .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周财报季拉开帷幕，主要银行将公布业绩，包括摩根大通（JPM.N）、高盛（GS.N）、富国银行（WFC.N）和花旗集团（C.N）。</p>
</div><p>S&amp;P 500 companies overall are expected to have increased earnings by 8.8% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to LSEG IBES, and strong results will be needed to justify the market’s high valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 LSEG IBES 的数据显示，标准普尔 500 公司的整体盈利预计在第三季度同比增长 8.8%，强劲的业绩将是市场高估值的必要条件。</p>
</div><p>“Our guess is you might get, at least in the very near term, a more volatile and directionless environment for some of the risky assets. Ultimately, whether or not you go against the market in this environment depends on your conviction,” said Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们的猜测是，至少在短期内，某些风险资产可能会出现更为波动和无方向的环境。最终，是否在这种环境中逆势而为取决于你的信念，” Lombard Odier 的高级宏观策略师霍敏·李表示。</p>
</div><p>FRANCE TURMOIL Politics cast a cloud over Europe as the French presidency announced Lecornu’s new cabinet line-up on Sunday, reappointing Roland Lescure, a close ally of Emmanuel Macron, as finance minister.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法国动荡 政治阴云笼罩欧洲，法国总统府周日宣布勒科尔努的新内阁成员，重新任命了埃马纽埃尔·马克龙的亲密盟友罗兰·莱斯库尔为财政部长。</p>
</div><p>Lecornu will face a no-confidence vote most likely on Thursday and it’s unclear if he has the votes needed to survive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>勒科尔努最有可能在周四面临不信任投票，目前尚不清楚他是否拥有生存所需的票数。</p>
</div><p>France’s 10-year bond yield was little changed at around 3.47% (FR10YT=RR) and French stocks rallied 0.5% in a sign that investors were holding on to hopes for some near-term political stability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法国 10 年期国债收益率小幅变化，约为 3.47%（FR10YT=RR），法国股市上涨 0.5%，显示投资者对近期政治稳定的希望依然存在。</p>
</div><p>“Even if, very big if, Lecornu now lasts longer in office than on his first attempt, he will face an uphill struggle to get a budget for 2026 through the divided parliament by the end of the year,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“即使，假如勒科尔努在任期内比第一次任期更长，他也将面临艰巨的任务，必须在年底之前通过分裂的议会通过 2026 年的预算，” Berenberg 的首席经济学家霍尔格·施密丁表示。</p>
</div><p>Currency markets also saw some stabilisation after Friday’s rush into the traditional safe havens of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The dollar rallied 0.6% to 152 yen (JPY=EBS) , having slid 1.2% on Friday from a top of 153.29.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>货币市场在周五涌入传统避险资产日元和瑞士法郎后也出现了一些稳定。美元上涨 0.6%，至 152 日元（JPY=EBS），周五从 153.29 的高点下滑 1.2%。</p>
</div><p>The euro slipped 0.25% to $1.1586 (EUR=EBS) , while the dollar gained 0.5% on the Swiss franc to 0.8038 (CHF=) . The dollar index was steady (=USD) , after losing 0.6% on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元下跌 0.25%，至 1.1586 美元（EUR=EBS），而美元对瑞士法郎上涨 0.5%，至 0.8038（CHF=）。美元指数保持稳定（=USD），在周五下跌 0.6% 后。</p>
</div><p>In bond markets, cash Treasuries were closed for a holiday, while government bond yields in Europe nudged up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在债券市场，现金国债因假期休市，而欧洲政府债券收益率小幅上升。</p>
</div><p>U.S. and European bond yields had hit multi-week lows in the wake of Trump’s tariff threat on Friday , while investors had added to wagers on more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特朗普周五的关税威胁后，美国和欧洲的债券收益率达到了数周来的低点，投资者增加了对美联储进一步降息的押注。</p>
</div><p>“Interestingly, the bond market held up on Friday and that was encouraging given the recent selloff in long-dated bonds,” said Wren Sterling’s McPherson.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“有趣的是，债券市场在周五表现良好，这令人鼓舞，因为近期长期债券出现了抛售，” Wren Sterling 的麦克弗森表示。</p>
</div><p>Futures implied around a 98% chance of a quarter-point cut from the Fed later this month, and a similar probability of another move in December. (0#USDIRPR)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期货市场暗示美联储本月晚些时候降息 25 个基点的概率约为 98%，而 12 月再次降息的概率也相似。（0#USDIRPR）</p>
</div><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell has a chance to offer his guidance when he speaks on the economic outlook at the NABE annual meeting on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在周二的 NABE 年会上就经济前景发表讲话，提供指导。</p>
</div><p>A host of other Fed members are appearing this week, along with a who’s who of central bankers attending an IMF-World Bank meeting in Washington.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周还有其他美联储成员出席，以及一众中央银行行长参加在华盛顿举行的国际货币基金组织 - 世界银行会议。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices also regained some ground on hopes the U.S. and China would find some compromise on trade to avoid fresh tariffs. (O/R)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价也因希望美国和中国能在贸易上找到妥协以避免新的关税而有所回升。（O/R）</p>
</div><p>Brent (LCOc1) bounced 1.7% to $63.8 a barrel, while U.S. crude (CLc1) rose 1.9% to $60 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油（LCOc1）上涨 1.7%，至每桶 63.8 美元，而美国原油（CLc1）上涨 1.9%，至每桶 60 美元。</p>
</div><p>Asia stock markets here Asia-Pacific valuations here Spot gold price in USD per oz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚洲股市 此处 亚太估值 此处 现货黄金价格以美元计每盎司</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AUTOMATED-20251013/XAU-COMMODITY-365D-HOURLY/znpnnrwjypl/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AUTOMATED-20251013/XAU-COMMODITY-365D-HOURLY/znpnnrwjypl/chart.png"/></p>

全球市场——在特朗普缓和对中国的言辞后，市场情绪趋于稳定，黄金价格创下历史新高