<p>尽管周五指数下滑，但近期的方向非常明确。<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>、<strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克</strong> 因市场对公司能够应对唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税计划并继续实现增长的乐观情绪而飙升。此外，投资者纷纷涌入人工智能（AI）股票，寄希望于这些公司在 AI 基础设施建设加速的情况下，收入会大幅增长。AI 巨头 <strong>英伟达</strong> 预测，到本世纪末，AI 基础设施支出可能达到 4 万亿美元——如果这一预测成真，许多公司和投资者可能会获得丰厚回报。</p>
<p>事实上，动能如此强劲，以至于标准普尔 500 指数在最近几个月创下了多个新纪录，并且正朝着连续第三年的增长迈进。在这样一个光明的背景下，你可能会想知道专家投资者沃伦·巴菲特的最新动向。这位亿万富翁领导的 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 在近 60 年内为股东提供了超越市场的年回报，因此他证明了自己能够在各种投资环境中进行投资——从牛市到熊市，甚至是市场崩盘。</p>
<p>现在，随着指数飙升，巴菲特采取了一项可能对投资者发出警告的举动——这位常被称为 “奥马哈的先知” 的投资大师是否知道华尔街不知道的事情？让我们来看看。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1ODgvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtMi10bWYtbWF5LTIwMTUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1ODgvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtMi10bWYtbWF5LTIwMTUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>巴菲特的投资策略</h2>
<p>首先，简要说明一下巴菲特的投资方式。他作为 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 的董事长兼首席执行官建立了一个帝国——但这并不是因为选择那些一夜之间暴涨的股票。巴菲特并没有广泛投资于一些在一两年内股价飙升三位数或四位数的科技领域。相反，这位投资者更青睐他熟悉且感到舒适的行业，并持有包括金融、消费品和能源等领域的多元化股票。</p>
<p>当他觉得这些公司被低估并具备获得市场其他部分认可的潜力时，巴菲特会买入这些股票——然后他持有这些股票，通常会随着这些公司稳步增长盈利和业务而获利。他还非常喜欢分红，并从拥有像 <strong>可口可乐</strong> 这样的分红王者中受益，收获了数十年的被动收入。</p>
<p>最后，巴菲特不追随市场趋势，而是始终坚持他的投资原则。这让我想到了巴菲特最近的举动。这位亿万富翁在今年第二季度连续第 11 个季度成为股票的净卖家——这意味着他出售的股票价值超过了他购买的股票价值。这帮助伯克希尔哈撒韦在今年建立了创纪录的现金头寸，并在最近一个季度末达到了 3440 亿美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/590d857c76b7a0b4785e9beed006da7e.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/590d857c76b7a0b4785e9beed006da7e.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.B 现金和短期投资（季度）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<h2>巴菲特知道什么</h2>
<p>现在，让我们考虑一下我们的问题：巴菲特在其他人纷纷涌入股票时表现出这种谨慎，是否知道华尔街不知道的事情？这位投资巨头可能只是更加关注一个关键因素，那就是估值。尽管一些股票提供了很好的买入机会——巴菲特在最近几个月发现了这些机会并进行了购买，例如开设了 <strong>联合健康集团</strong> 的头寸，并增加了对 <strong>泳池公司</strong> 的持有——但整体市场看起来价格昂贵。而作为一位著名的价值投资者，巴菲特拒绝以任何价格购买股票。</p>
<p>因此，这位亿万富翁可能正专注于标准普尔 500 指数的 Shiller CAPE 比率，这一指标显示了 10 年期间每股收益与价格的关系——而他可能对看到的情况并不满意。今年这一指标达到了过去仅出现过两次的水平，表明整体市场价格昂贵。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f72b665b216b0106d34fcf9861d0488a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f72b665b216b0106d34fcf9861d0488a.png"/></p>
<p>标准普尔 500 指数 Shiller CAPE 比率数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>在这样的时期，巴菲特不大量投入现金而选择锁定一些股票的利润并谨慎投资并不令人惊讶。</p>
<p>这对你作为投资者意味着什么？这并不意味着你应该抛售你的股票并停止投资。相反，这意味着像巴菲特一样，你应该寻找机会——因为在每个市场阶段都有机会——同时，留出一些现金，以便将来也能投入。毕竟，今天看起来昂贵的某些股票在未来某个时候可能会以更合理的价格交易——而像巴菲特一样，你会希望准备好抓住机会，持有并在长期内获得胜利。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

南方两倍做多伯克希尔

<p>沃伦·巴菲特以其谨慎的投资策略而闻名，已经连续 11 个季度成为股票的净卖家，建立了 3440 亿美元的创纪录现金头寸。尽管近期像标准普尔 500 指数这样的指数出现了上涨，但巴菲特的行动表明，他可能认为市场被高估，特别是高位的希勒 CAPE 比率暗示了这一点。投资者被建议在寻找机会的同时保持一定的现金，以便进行未来的投资，这反映了巴菲特在购买股票之前重视评估的做法</p>

<p>Though indexes slid on Friday, the direction in recent times has been clear. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong> and the <strong>Nasdaq</strong> have been soaring on optimism companies can handle President Donald Trump's tariff plan -- and continue to deliver growth. On top of this, investors have piled into artificial intelligence (AI) stocks amid hopes that these companies will see revenue explode higher as the AI infrastructure buildout scales up. AI behemoth <strong>Nvidia</strong> has predicted AI infrastructure spending may reach $4 trillion by the end of the decade -- if that happens, many companies and investors could win big.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管周五指数下滑，但近期的方向非常明确。<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>、<strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克</strong> 因市场对公司能够应对唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税计划并继续实现增长的乐观情绪而飙升。此外，投资者纷纷涌入人工智能（AI）股票，寄希望于这些公司在 AI 基础设施建设加速的情况下，收入会大幅增长。AI 巨头 <strong>英伟达</strong> 预测，到本世纪末，AI 基础设施支出可能达到 4 万亿美元——如果这一预测成真，许多公司和投资者可能会获得丰厚回报。</p>
</div><p>In fact, momentum has been so strong that the S&amp;P 500 has reached several new records in recent months and is heading for its third consecutive annual gain. Against this bright backdrop, you may be wondering about the latest moves of expert investor Warren Buffett. The billionaire, at the head of <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>, has delivered a market-beating annual return for shareholders over nearly 60 years, so he's proven his ability to invest through all investment environments -- from bull markets to bear markets and even market crashes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，动能如此强劲，以至于标准普尔 500 指数在最近几个月创下了多个新纪录，并且正朝着连续第三年的增长迈进。在这样一个光明的背景下，你可能会想知道专家投资者沃伦·巴菲特的最新动向。这位亿万富翁领导的 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 在近 60 年内为股东提供了超越市场的年回报，因此他证明了自己能够在各种投资环境中进行投资——从牛市到熊市，甚至是市场崩盘。</p>
</div><p>Now, as indexes soar, Buffett has made a move that could be a warning for investors -- does the Oracle of Omaha, as he's often called, know something Wall Street doesn't? Let's find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，随着指数飙升，巴菲特采取了一项可能对投资者发出警告的举动——这位常被称为 “奥马哈的先知” 的投资大师是否知道华尔街不知道的事情？让我们来看看。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1ODgvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtMi10bWYtbWF5LTIwMTUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F836588%2Fwarren-buffett-2-tmf-may-2015.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Buffett's investment strategy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特的投资策略</h2>
</div><p>So, first, a quick note on how Buffett goes about investing. He has built an empire as chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway -- but this isn't due to selecting stocks that take off overnight. Buffett hasn't broadly invested in areas like technology that have seen some stocks soar in the triple- and quadruple-digits in a year or two. Instead, the investor favors industries he knows well and feels comfortable with, and he holds a diversified bunch of stocks in areas including financials, consumer goods, and energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，简要说明一下巴菲特的投资方式。他作为 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 的董事长兼首席执行官建立了一个帝国——但这并不是因为选择那些一夜之间暴涨的股票。巴菲特并没有广泛投资于一些在一两年内股价飙升三位数或四位数的科技领域。相反，这位投资者更青睐他熟悉且感到舒适的行业，并持有包括金融、消费品和能源等领域的多元化股票。</p>
</div><p>Buffett scoops up these players when he feels they're undervalued and have what it takes to gain the recognition of the rest of the market over time -- then he holds on and generally wins as these companies steadily grow earnings and their businesses. He also is a big fan of dividends and has benefited from owning Dividend Kings like <strong>Coca-Cola</strong> for decades and collecting passive income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当他觉得这些公司被低估并具备获得市场其他部分认可的潜力时，巴菲特会买入这些股票——然后他持有这些股票，通常会随着这些公司稳步增长盈利和业务而获利。他还非常喜欢分红，并从拥有像 <strong>可口可乐</strong> 这样的分红王者中受益，收获了数十年的被动收入。</p>
</div><p>Finally, Buffett doesn't follow market trends and instead sticks to his investment principles throughout market environments. And this leads me to the move Buffett made recently. The billionaire, in the second quarter of this year, was a net seller of stocks for the 11th consecutive quarter -- this means the value of stocks he sold surpasses the value of those he purchased. And this has helped Berkshire Hathaway build a cash position touching record levels this year and settling at $344 billion at the end of the recent quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，巴菲特不追随市场趋势，而是始终坚持他的投资原则。这让我想到了巴菲特最近的举动。这位亿万富翁在今年第二季度连续第 11 个季度成为股票的净卖家——这意味着他出售的股票价值超过了他购买的股票价值。这帮助伯克希尔哈撒韦在今年建立了创纪录的现金头寸，并在最近一个季度末达到了 3440 亿美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/590d857c76b7a0b4785e9beed006da7e.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/590d857c76b7a0b4785e9beed006da7e.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.B Cash and Short Term Investments (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BRK.B 现金和短期投资（季度）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Here's what Buffett knows</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特知道什么</h2>
</div><p>Now, let's consider our question: Does Buffett, showing this sort of caution while others pile into stocks, know something Wall Street doesn't? The investing giant may simply be paying more attention to one key factor, and that's valuation. Though some stocks offer great buying opportunities -- and Buffett has found these and made purchases in recent months, for example, opening a position in <strong>UnitedHealth Group</strong> and increasing his holding of <strong>Pool Corp</strong>. -- the overall market is looking pricey. And Buffett, a famous value investor, refuses to buy a stock at just any price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，让我们考虑一下我们的问题：巴菲特在其他人纷纷涌入股票时表现出这种谨慎，是否知道华尔街不知道的事情？这位投资巨头可能只是更加关注一个关键因素，那就是估值。尽管一些股票提供了很好的买入机会——巴菲特在最近几个月发现了这些机会并进行了购买，例如开设了 <strong>联合健康集团</strong> 的头寸，并增加了对 <strong>泳池公司</strong> 的持有——但整体市场看起来价格昂贵。而作为一位著名的价值投资者，巴菲特拒绝以任何价格购买股票。</p>
</div><p>So, the billionaire likely is focusing on the S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio, a metric that shows earnings per share in relation to price over a 10-year period -- and he probably doesn't like what he sees. The metric this year reached a level that it's only seen two other times in the past, signaling the overall market is pricey.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，这位亿万富翁可能正专注于标准普尔 500 指数的 Shiller CAPE 比率，这一指标显示了 10 年期间每股收益与价格的关系——而他可能对看到的情况并不满意。今年这一指标达到了过去仅出现过两次的水平，表明整体市场价格昂贵。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f72b665b216b0106d34fcf9861d0488a.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f72b665b216b0106d34fcf9861d0488a.png"/></p>
<p>S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 指数 Shiller CAPE 比率数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>During times like these, it's not surprising that Buffett isn't deploying boatloads of cash and instead chooses to lock in profits on some stocks and invest cautiously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这样的时期，巴菲特不大量投入现金而选择锁定一些股票的利润并谨慎投资并不令人惊讶。</p>
</div><p>What does this mean for you as an investor? This doesn't suggest you should unload your stocks and stop investing. Instead, it means that, like Buffett, you should look for opportunities -- as they exist in every market phase -- and at the same time, set aside some cash that you might deploy in the future too. After all, certain players that look expensive today may trade for more reasonable prices at some point down the road -- and, like Buffett, you'll want to be ready to seize the opportunity, hold on, and score a win over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对你作为投资者意味着什么？这并不意味着你应该抛售你的股票并停止投资。相反，这意味着像巴菲特一样，你应该寻找机会——因为在每个市场阶段都有机会——同时，留出一些现金，以便将来也能投入。毕竟，今天看起来昂贵的某些股票在未来某个时候可能会以更合理的价格交易——而像巴菲特一样，你会希望准备好抓住机会，持有并在长期内获得胜利。</p>
</div>

As Indexes Soar, Does Warren Buffett Know Something Wall Street Doesn't? He Just Made a Move That Could Be a Warning for Investors.

- 尽管股指下滑，S&P 500 和纳斯达克近期表现强劲。  
- 巴菲特在连续 11 个季度净卖出股票，现金达到 3440 亿美元。  
- 他关注市场估值，可能对当前高估的市场持谨慎态度。  

随着指数的飙升，沃伦·巴菲特是否掌握了华尔街所不知的信息？他最近的举动可能对投资者发出警告