<p>科技股在近年来飙升，2025 年的势头依然持续。这是因为投资者纷纷涌入人工智能（AI）这一热门领域的公司。<strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 1.72%），一家在消费品和科技领域运营的公司，受益于这一势头，在过去三年中股价上涨了两位数，但今年的表现却平平——目前，股价年初至今下跌约 1%。</p>
<p>原因是什么？投资者担心唐纳德·特朗普总统的进口关税对公司电子商务业务的影响——而亚马逊在今年的某些时刻也因对科技股估值的普遍担忧而受到影响。如果整个行业看起来价格昂贵，投资者可能会避开。因此，现在合理地问一下，这些逆风是否会继续，或者亚马逊是否会很快大幅上涨。亚马逊的股价在一年后会在哪里？让我们来看看。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NjEvYW1hem9uLXByaW1lLXZhbi1vbi1zdHJlZXQucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="420" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NjEvYW1hem9uLXByaW1lLXZhbi1vbi1zdHJlZXQucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
<h2>亚马逊的护城河</h2>
<p>首先，让我们回顾一下过去几年亚马逊的故事。正如你可能知道的，该公司拥有全球电子商务巨头 Amazon.com，这项业务每年都能产生数十亿美元的收入。亚马逊凭借其出色的订阅服务 Prime 吸引客户不断回归，Prime 为会员提供从快速免费配送到书籍和电影等内容的各种服务。这与亚马逊广泛的履约和配送网络相结合，形成了坚实的护城河——一种竞争优势，应该能让其在竞争对手面前保持领先。</p>
<p>尽管亚马逊的电子商务业务在几年前的高利率环境中受到影响，但公司在那时采取了一个关键举措，为长期成功奠定了基础。它重新调整了成本结构，同时更加依赖人工智能来提高效率。我们已经看到了这一点的结果，因为亚马逊在经历了 2022 年的亏损后重新回到了增长轨道——这些努力降低了公司的服务成本。随着这一进程的持续，亚马逊应该会逐步提高盈利能力。</p>
<p>与此同时，亚马逊网络服务（AWS），公司的云计算业务和最大的利润引擎，已经在人工智能领域确立了自己的重要地位。AWS 为客户提供他们在 AI 项目中可能需要的一切，从顶级 <strong>英伟达</strong> 芯片到 AWS 自己设计的经济型芯片，以及对大型语言模型（LLMs）的访问。作为全球最大的云服务提供商，它在赢得 AI 产品客户方面处于良好位置——我们已经可以看到这些结果，AWS 在最近一个季度实现了 1230 亿美元的年收入运行率。</p>
<h2>亚马逊的未来</h2>
<p>尽管如此，这些积极因素仍不足以在今年推动股价大幅上涨。那么，我认为亚马逊在一年后会在哪里呢？如前所述，投资者担心美国进口关税对收益的影响。亚马逊表示，在上半年并没有看到需求下降或商品价格显著上涨——而且公司表示，展望未来，其广泛的卖家意味着客户很可能会在亚马逊找到最优惠的价格。</p>
<p>如果亚马逊即将发布的财报显示收入持续增长，支持这一关税影响有限的观点，投资者可能会重新考虑亚马逊的股票——尤其是今天，亚马逊的股价以 32 倍的未来收益预期交易，低于两年前的 50 倍，看起来非常合理。</p>
<p>与此同时，AI 工作负载的需求很高，这应该继续推动 AWS 的收入增长。如上所述，亚马逊的收益也可能受益于成本结构的改善和使用 AI 提高效率。</p>
<p>当然，预测未来一年的股价表现是不可能的，但可以公平地说，亚马逊具备向前发展的能力，并可能超越其他今年股价飙升的科技公司。投资者可能会在某些情况下寻求锁定利润，并转向尚未经历股价暴涨的优质公司——这可能使这家消费和科技公司在一年后成为赢家。</p>

亚马逊

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>亚马逊的股票在 2025 年面临挑战，年初至今下跌约 1%，主要由于对进口关税和高科技估值的担忧。然而，该公司在电子商务和 AWS 服务方面具有强大的竞争优势，这些服务正受益于人工智能的需求。如果即将发布的财报显示持续的收入增长，亚马逊的股票可能会反弹，尤其是与两年前相比，其估值更加合理。总体而言，亚马逊有可能在未来一年中表现优于其他科技股票</p>

<p>Technology stocks have skyrocketed in recent years, and the momentum has continued in 2025. This is as investors piled into companies present in the hot area of artificial intelligence (AI). <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 1.72%), a company operating in the consumer goods and tech sectors, has benefited from this momentum, climbing in the double-digits over the past three years, but performance this year has been lackluster -- at the moment, the stock is down about 1% year to date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技股在近年来飙升，2025 年的势头依然持续。这是因为投资者纷纷涌入人工智能（AI）这一热门领域的公司。<strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 1.72%），一家在消费品和科技领域运营的公司，受益于这一势头，在过去三年中股价上涨了两位数，但今年的表现却平平——目前，股价年初至今下跌约 1%。</p>
</div><p>The reason? Investors have worried about the impact of President Donald Trump's import tariffs on the company's e-commerce business -- and Amazon also has suffered at certain points this year amid general concern about the valuations of technology stocks. If the industry as a whole looks expensive, investors may avoid it. So, now it's reasonable to ask whether these headwinds will continue, or whether Amazon might soon explode higher. Where will Amazon stock be in a year? Let's find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原因是什么？投资者担心唐纳德·特朗普总统的进口关税对公司电子商务业务的影响——而亚马逊在今年的某些时刻也因对科技股估值的普遍担忧而受到影响。如果整个行业看起来价格昂贵，投资者可能会避开。因此，现在合理地问一下，这些逆风是否会继续，或者亚马逊是否会很快大幅上涨。亚马逊的股价在一年后会在哪里？让我们来看看。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NjEvYW1hem9uLXByaW1lLXZhbi1vbi1zdHJlZXQucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837461%2Famazon-prime-van-on-street.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon's moat</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊的护城河</h2>
</div><p>First, let's take a step back to consider the Amazon story of the past few years. As you probably know, the company owns the global e-commerce giant Amazon.com, and this business generates billions of dollars in revenue year after year. Amazon has kept customers coming back thanks to its fantastic subscription service, Prime, which offers members everything from fast and free shipping to content like books and movies. This, along with Amazon's extensive fulfillment and delivery network, represent a solid moat -- a competitive advantage that should keep it ahead of rivals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，让我们回顾一下过去几年亚马逊的故事。正如你可能知道的，该公司拥有全球电子商务巨头 Amazon.com，这项业务每年都能产生数十亿美元的收入。亚马逊凭借其出色的订阅服务 Prime 吸引客户不断回归，Prime 为会员提供从快速免费配送到书籍和电影等内容的各种服务。这与亚马逊广泛的履约和配送网络相结合，形成了坚实的护城河——一种竞争优势，应该能让其在竞争对手面前保持领先。</p>
</div><p>Though Amazon's e-commerce business suffered in the high interest rate environment a few years ago, the company at that point made a key move that should set it up for long-term success. It revamped its cost structure, and at the same time, the company leaned more heavily into using AI to help it gain in efficiency. We've already seen the results of this, as Amazon has returned to growth -- after a loss in 2022 --and the efforts are lowering the company's cost to serve. As this continues, Amazon should progressively make gains in profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管亚马逊的电子商务业务在几年前的高利率环境中受到影响，但公司在那时采取了一个关键举措，为长期成功奠定了基础。它重新调整了成本结构，同时更加依赖人工智能来提高效率。我们已经看到了这一点的结果，因为亚马逊在经历了 2022 年的亏损后重新回到了增长轨道——这些努力降低了公司的服务成本。随着这一进程的持续，亚马逊应该会逐步提高盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Amazon Web Services (AWS), the company's cloud computing business and biggest profit engine, has established itself as a major player in the AI space. AWS offers customers everything they may need for their AI projects, from top <strong>Nvidia</strong> chips and budget-friendly chips designed by AWS itself to access to large language models (LLMs). As the world's biggest cloud services provider, it's well positioned to win customers for its AI offerings -- and we can see these results already, with AWS achieving a $123 billion annual revenue run rate in the recent quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，亚马逊网络服务（AWS），公司的云计算业务和最大的利润引擎，已经在人工智能领域确立了自己的重要地位。AWS 为客户提供他们在 AI 项目中可能需要的一切，从顶级 <strong>英伟达</strong> 芯片到 AWS 自己设计的经济型芯片，以及对大型语言模型（LLMs）的访问。作为全球最大的云服务提供商，它在赢得 AI 产品客户方面处于良好位置——我们已经可以看到这些结果，AWS 在最近一个季度实现了 1230 亿美元的年收入运行率。</p>
</div><h2>What's ahead for Amazon?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊的未来</h2>
</div><p>Still, these positive points haven't been enough to supercharge the stock this year. So, where do I think Amazon will be a year from now? As mentioned, investors have worried about the impact of U.S. import tariffs on earnings. Amazon has said that in the first half of the year it didn't see lower demand or significantly higher prices on items -- and the company said that, moving forward, its broad range of sellers means a customer probably will find the best prices on Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，这些积极因素仍不足以在今年推动股价大幅上涨。那么，我认为亚马逊在一年后会在哪里呢？如前所述，投资者担心美国进口关税对收益的影响。亚马逊表示，在上半年并没有看到需求下降或商品价格显著上涨——而且公司表示，展望未来，其广泛的卖家意味着客户很可能会在亚马逊找到最优惠的价格。</p>
</div><p>If Amazon's upcoming earnings reports show sustained growth in revenue, supporting this idea of limited tariff impact, investors may reconsider Amazon stock -- especially since, today, trading for 32x forward earnings estimates down from 50 less than two years ago, it looks very reasonably priced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果亚马逊即将发布的财报显示收入持续增长，支持这一关税影响有限的观点，投资者可能会重新考虑亚马逊的股票——尤其是今天，亚马逊的股价以 32 倍的未来收益预期交易，低于两年前的 50 倍，看起来非常合理。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, capacity for AI workloads is in high demand, and this should continue to fuel revenue growth at AWS. As mentioned above, Amazon's earnings also are likely to benefit from the cost structure improvements and use of AI to gain in efficiency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，AI 工作负载的需求很高，这应该继续推动 AWS 的收入增长。如上所述，亚马逊的收益也可能受益于成本结构的改善和使用 AI 提高效率。</p>
</div><p>Of course, it's impossible to predict share price performance over the coming year, but it's fair to say that Amazon has what it takes to advance and potentially outperform other technology companies that have seen their shares surge this year. Investors might be looking to lock in profits in some cases and rotate into a quality company that hasn't yet seen its shares skyrocket -- and that could make this consumer and tech player a winner a year from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，预测未来一年的股价表现是不可能的，但可以公平地说，亚马逊具备向前发展的能力，并可能超越其他今年股价飙升的科技公司。投资者可能会在某些情况下寻求锁定利润，并转向尚未经历股价暴涨的优质公司——这可能使这家消费和科技公司在一年后成为赢家。</p>
</div>

Where Will Amazon Stock Be in 1 Year?

- 亚马逊在人工智能领域的投资吸引了大量投资者。  
- 尽管面临特朗普关税的担忧，亚马逊的云计算业务仍实现了 1230 亿美元的年收入。  
- 如果未来财报显示持续增长，投资者可能会重新考虑亚马逊的股票。  

一年后亚马逊的股价会达到什么水平？