<p>美国股市今年异常波动。<strong>标普 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 1.56%) 在唐纳德·特朗普总统于四月宣布大规模关税时崩溃，跌幅达到 10.5%，创下历史上第五大两日跌幅。该指数最终从历史最高点下跌了 19%，勉强避免了熊市区域。</p>
<p>然而，当政府推迟最严厉的关税时，标普 500 指数迅速反弹，自那时以来，该指数因企业盈利和整体经济远强于最初的预期而创下数十个新高。标普 500 指数自四月低点上涨了 33%。</p>
<p>然而，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔刚刚给投资者发出了警告。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc1MjUvamVyb21lLXBvd2VsbC1jaGFpci1wb3dlbGwtYW5zd2Vycy1yZXBvcnRlcnMtcXVlc3Rpb25zLWF0LXRoZS1mb21jLXByZXNzLWNvbmZlcmVuY2UuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc1MjUvamVyb21lLXBvd2VsbC1jaGFpci1wb3dlbGwtYW5zd2Vycy1yZXBvcnRlcnMtcXVlc3Rpb25zLWF0LXRoZS1mb21jLXByZXNzLWNvbmZlcmVuY2UuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>杰罗姆·鲍威尔主席在 FOMC 新闻发布会上回答记者提问。图片来源：美联储官方照片。</p>
<h2>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示关税可能导致未来几个月通胀上升</h2>
<p>联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在九月会议上将联邦基金利率下调了 25 个基点，目前目标区间为 4% 至 4.25%。联邦基金利率是影响经济中其他利率的基准，包括信用卡、抵押贷款和个人贷款的利率。当 12 名成员担心经济停滞时，FOMC 会降低联邦基金利率。</p>
<p>确实，鲍威尔主席将最近的货币政策变化归因于由于消费者支出疲软导致的经济增长放缓。他在九月 FOMC 会议后告诉记者：“今年上半年 GDP 增长率约为 1.5%，低于去年的 2.5%。这种增长放缓在很大程度上反映了消费者支出的减弱。”</p>
<p>重要的是，鲍威尔指出，特朗普政府施加的关税已经开始推高消费者价格。然而，企业迄今为止吸收了大部分成本增加，这可能解释了为什么夏季招聘放缓。美国经济在五月至八月期间平均每月新增 27,000 个就业岗位，这是自 2010 年以来（不包括疫情）最糟糕的四个月。</p>
<p>然而，鲍威尔预计通胀压力将在今年剩余时间和明年 “继续加大”，因为企业将更多的关税负担转嫁给消费者。大多数经济学家对此持相同观点。在《华尔街日报》调查的 62 位经济学家中，中位数预测显示，消费者价格指数（CPI）通胀将在 2026 年 6 月达到 3.1%，高于 2025 年 8 月的 2.9%。</p>
<p>在任何情况下，通胀对股市来说都是坏消息，因为它对消费者支出构成阻力，并偶尔迫使 FOMC 提高利率。但目前威胁经济的关税引发的通胀尤其是坏消息，因为股市的估值已经处于高位。</p>
<h2>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，股票在许多指标上 “相对高估”</h2>
<p>在九月底，鲍威尔主席在罗德岛的 “大普罗维登斯商会” 发表讲话。他提醒与会者，美联储并不针对股票或其他金融资产的特定价格，也不声称知道在任何特定时刻正确的价格是什么。</p>
<p>尽管如此，鲍威尔仍然警告投资者，“股票价格在许多指标上相对高估”。他没有详细说明具体的倍数，但根据 <strong>FactSet Research</strong> 的数据，标普 500 指数目前的前瞻市盈率为 22.8 倍，显著高于 10 年平均的 18.6 倍。</p>
<p>重要的是，前瞻市盈率通常是短期回报的差劲预测，因为投资者可能在长时间内保持非理性的乐观或悲观。但它们通常是长期回报的良好预测指标。标普 500 的前瞻市盈率在历史上仅在两个时期超过 22，而该指数最终在这两个时期都崩溃了。</p>
<ul>
<li>网络泡沫：前瞻市盈率在 1999 年飘升至 22 以上，并在接下来的三年中普遍保持在该水平以上。标普 500 最终在 2000 年 3 月达到峰值后下跌了 49%。</li>
<li>COVID-19 疫情：前瞻市盈率在 2020 年飙升至 22 以上，因为投资者低估了供应链中断对经济的深远影响。标普 500 最终在 2022 年 1 月达到峰值后下跌了 25%。</li>
</ul>
<p>结论是：美联储并不对金融资产是否公允定价持官方立场，但鲍威尔仍然警告投资者，股票的估值处于高位。确实，前瞻市盈率超过 22，历史表明标普 500 最终将大幅下跌。因此，现在不是投资者冒大风险的时候。</p>

标普 500 指数

<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔警告投资者，标普 500 指数的估值过高，目前的前瞻市盈率为 22.8，超过历史平均水平 18.6。他将关税可能引发的通货膨胀与消费者支出放缓联系在一起，并警告这可能对股市产生负面影响。鲍威尔的言论表明，标普 500 指数可能面临显著下跌，因为历史表明，这种高估值往往会在市场急剧下跌之前出现。建议投资者在此时避免冒险</p>

<p>The U.S. stock market has been abnormally volatile this year. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 1.56%) crashed when President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs in April, falling 10.5% to record its fifth biggest two-day drop in history. The index ultimately declined 19% from its record high, narrowly avoiding bear market territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国股市今年异常波动。<strong>标普 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 1.56%) 在唐纳德·特朗普总统于四月宣布大规模关税时崩溃，跌幅达到 10.5%，创下历史上第五大两日跌幅。该指数最终从历史最高点下跌了 19%，勉强避免了熊市区域。</p>
</div><p>However, the S&amp;P 500 rebounded quickly when the administration postponed the harshest tariffs, and the index has since recorded dozens of new highs as corporate earnings and the overall economy have been much stronger than initially feared. The S&amp;P 500 has advanced 33% from its April low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，当政府推迟最严厉的关税时，标普 500 指数迅速反弹，自那时以来，该指数因企业盈利和整体经济远强于最初的预期而创下数十个新高。标普 500 指数自四月低点上涨了 33%。</p>
</div><p>However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell just gave investors a warning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔刚刚给投资者发出了警告。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc1MjUvamVyb21lLXBvd2VsbC1jaGFpci1wb3dlbGwtYW5zd2Vycy1yZXBvcnRlcnMtcXVlc3Rpb25zLWF0LXRoZS1mb21jLXByZXNzLWNvbmZlcmVuY2UuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837525%2Fjerome-powell-chair-powell-answers-reporters-questions-at-the-fomc-press-conference.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Chairman Jerome Powell answers reporters' questions at an FOMC press conference. Image source: Official Federal Reserve Photo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>杰罗姆·鲍威尔主席在 FOMC 新闻发布会上回答记者提问。图片来源：美联储官方照片。</p>
</div><h2>Fed Chair Jerome Powell says tariffs could lead to higher inflation in the coming months</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示关税可能导致未来几个月通胀上升</h2>
</div><p>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds rate by a quarter point at the September meeting, such that the target range is now 4% to 4.25%. The federal funds rate is a benchmark that influences other interest rates across the economy, including those on credit cards, mortgages, and personal loans. The FOMC lowers the federal funds when the 12-member group is worried about the economy stalling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在九月会议上将联邦基金利率下调了 25 个基点，目前目标区间为 4% 至 4.25%。联邦基金利率是影响经济中其他利率的基准，包括信用卡、抵押贷款和个人贷款的利率。当 12 名成员担心经济停滞时，FOMC 会降低联邦基金利率。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, Fed Chair Jerome Powell attributed the recent change in monetary policy to a deceleration in economic growth driven by weakness in consumer spending. &#34;GDP rose at a pace of around 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% last year. That moderation in growth largely reflects a slowdown in consumer spending,&#34; he told reporters after the September FOMC meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>确实，鲍威尔主席将最近的货币政策变化归因于由于消费者支出疲软导致的经济增长放缓。他在九月 FOMC 会议后告诉记者：“今年上半年 GDP 增长率约为 1.5%，低于去年的 2.5%。这种增长放缓在很大程度上反映了消费者支出的减弱。”</p>
</div><p>Importantly, Powell noted tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have started to push consumer prices higher. However, companies have so far absorbed a large portion of the cost increases, which may explain why hiring slowed over the summer. The U.S. economy added an average of 27,000 jobs per month between May and August, the worst four-month stretch (excluding the pandemic) since 2010.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，鲍威尔指出，特朗普政府施加的关税已经开始推高消费者价格。然而，企业迄今为止吸收了大部分成本增加，这可能解释了为什么夏季招聘放缓。美国经济在五月至八月期间平均每月新增 27,000 个就业岗位，这是自 2010 年以来（不包括疫情）最糟糕的四个月。</p>
</div><p>However, Powell expects inflationary pressure to &#34;continue to build over the course of the rest of the year and into next year&#34; as companies pass along a greater portion of the tariff burden to consumers. Most economists share that opinion. Among 62 economists surveyed by <em>The Wall Street Journal</em>, the median forecast says Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will measure 3.1% in June 2026, up from 2.9% in August 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，鲍威尔预计通胀压力将在今年剩余时间和明年 “继续加大”，因为企业将更多的关税负担转嫁给消费者。大多数经济学家对此持相同观点。在《华尔街日报》调查的 62 位经济学家中，中位数预测显示，消费者价格指数（CPI）通胀将在 2026 年 6 月达到 3.1%，高于 2025 年 8 月的 2.9%。</p>
</div><p>Inflation under any circumstance can be bad news for the stock market because it acts as a headwind to consumer spending and occasionally forces the FOMC to raise interest rates. But the tariff-induced inflation that currently threatens the economy is particularly bad news because the stock market's valuation is already elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在任何情况下，通胀对股市来说都是坏消息，因为它对消费者支出构成阻力，并偶尔迫使 FOMC 提高利率。但目前威胁经济的关税引发的通胀尤其是坏消息，因为股市的估值已经处于高位。</p>
</div><h2>Fed Chair Jerome Powell says stocks are &#34;fairly highly valued&#34; by many measures</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，股票在许多指标上 “相对高估”</h2>
</div><p>In late September, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a speech in Rhode Island at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce. He reminded attendees the Fed does not target specific prices for stocks or other financial assets, nor does the central bank purport to know what the correct prices would be at any given point in time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在九月底，鲍威尔主席在罗德岛的 “大普罗维登斯商会” 发表讲话。他提醒与会者，美联储并不针对股票或其他金融资产的特定价格，也不声称知道在任何特定时刻正确的价格是什么。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, Powell still warned investors that &#34;equity prices are fairly highly valued&#34; by many measures. He did not elaborate on specific multiples, but the S&amp;P 500 currently trades at 22.8 times forward earnings, a material premium to the 10-year average of 18.6 times forward earnings, according to <strong>FactSet Research</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，鲍威尔仍然警告投资者，“股票价格在许多指标上相对高估”。他没有详细说明具体的倍数，但根据 <strong>FactSet Research</strong> 的数据，标普 500 指数目前的前瞻市盈率为 22.8 倍，显著高于 10 年平均的 18.6 倍。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are typically a poor predictor of near-term returns because investors can remain irrationally optimistic or pessimistic for long periods. But they are frequently good predictors of long-term returns. The S&amp;P 500's forward P/E ratio has exceeded 22 during just two periods in history, and the index eventually crashed both times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，前瞻市盈率通常是短期回报的差劲预测，因为投资者可能在长时间内保持非理性的乐观或悲观。但它们通常是长期回报的良好预测指标。标普 500 的前瞻市盈率在历史上仅在两个时期超过 22，而该指数最终在这两个时期都崩溃了。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The dot-com bubble: The forward P/E ratio drifted above 22 in 1999 and generally stayed above that level for the next three years. The S&amp;P 500 ultimately declined 49% after peaking in March 2000.</li>
<li>The COVID-19 pandemic: The forward P/E ratio surged above 22 in 2020 as investors underestimated how deeply supply chain disruptions would impact the economy. The S&amp;P 500 ultimately declined 25% after peaking in January 2022.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>网络泡沫：前瞻市盈率在 1999 年飘升至 22 以上，并在接下来的三年中普遍保持在该水平以上。标普 500 最终在 2000 年 3 月达到峰值后下跌了 49%。</li>
<li>COVID-19 疫情：前瞻市盈率在 2020 年飙升至 22 以上，因为投资者低估了供应链中断对经济的深远影响。标普 500 最终在 2022 年 1 月达到峰值后下跌了 25%。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Here's the bottom line: The Federal Reserve does not take an official stance on whether financial assets are fairly priced, but Powell still warned investors that stocks trade at elevated valuations. Indeed, with a forward P/E ratio above 22, history says the S&amp;P 500 will eventually drop sharply. So, now is not the time for investors to take big risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结论是：美联储并不对金融资产是否公允定价持官方立场，但鲍威尔仍然警告投资者，股票的估值处于高位。确实，前瞻市盈率超过 22，历史表明标普 500 最终将大幅下跌。因此，现在不是投资者冒大风险的时候。</p>
</div>

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Warns Investors About the Stock Market -- History Says the S&P 500 Will Do This Next

- 美国股市今年波动异常，标普 500 指数一度下跌 19%。  
- 美联储主席鲍威尔警告关税可能导致未来几个月通胀上升。  
- 当前标普 500 的前瞻市盈率高于 22，历史显示可能面临大幅下跌。  

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔警告投资者关于股市——历史显示标普 500 指数接下来可能会有这样的表现