<p>近年来，人工智能（AI）的进步需要越来越多的计算能力。这对像 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 这样的 GPU 制造商来说是一个巨大的好处，但 Nvidia 最大的客户也通过将这些 GPU 租给训练大型语言模型和开发新 AI 应用的公司而受益。</p>
<p><strong>微软</strong>（MSFT 0.61%）和 <strong>甲骨文</strong>（ORCL 5.20%）是从日益增长的计算需求中受益的两大云计算公司。由于像 OpenAI 这样的开发者的支出，两家公司都实现了数十亿美元的收入增长，OpenAI 与这两家云服务提供商都有合同。</p>
<p>但有一家公司的股票目前显得更具吸引力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NDEvZ2V0dHktaW1hZ2VzLW1zZnQtbWljcm9zb2Z0LWJsYWNrLWJhY2tncm91bmQuanBlZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="447" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NDEvZ2V0dHktaW1hZ2VzLW1zZnQtbWljcm9zb2Z0LWJsYWNrLWJhY2tncm91bmQuanBlZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>让甲骨文声名鹊起的大合同</h2>
<p>上个月，甲骨文在预测其云计算服务 Oracle Cloud Infrastructure（OCI）需求大幅增长时引起了广泛关注。预计到本世纪末，该业务的总收入将比去年增长 14 倍。这得益于 4550 亿美元的巨大订单积压。</p>
<p>这一订单积压得到了 OpenAI 的支持，后者承诺在 2027 年开始的五年内支出 3000 亿美元。这可能让一些知道微软与 OpenAI 关系密切的投资者感到惊讶，微软在 2019 年首次投资 OpenAI 10 亿美元，随后又追加了 20 亿美元，并在 2023 年投资了 100 亿美元。</p>
<p>但 OpenAI 和微软在年初改变了他们的关系。微软不再是 OpenAI 的独家云服务提供商。相反，OpenAI 给予微软优先拒绝权。如果微软无法或不愿满足 OpenAI 的需求，LLM 开发者可以自由寻找其他选择。</p>
<p>这意味着 OpenAI 在与甲骨文签订 3000 亿美元合同之前先找了微软，而微软不想接手这笔业务。这可能是因为微软已经有了大量的客户订单，管理层在多次财报电话会议上重申，需求的增长速度超过了供应的增长，尽管在 Azure 容量上进行了大量资本支出。也可能是因为 OpenAI 希望的条款并不具吸引力，而微软可以向其他客户要求更高的利润率。</p>
<p>换句话说，微软在一个强势的位置上运营，而甲骨文则在尽一切努力追赶微软和其他超大规模云服务商。这在两家公司构建云计算业务的方式上更加明显。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC1saW5lcy1vZi1zZXJ2ZXItcmFja3MuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="467" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC1saW5lcy1vZi1zZXJ2ZXItcmFja3MuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>建设足够容量以满足无法满足的需求的竞争</h2>
<p>微软在为 Azure 建设新容量方面的支出超过了几乎所有人。管理层预计上个季度的资本支出将达到约 300 亿美元，较前一个季度的 242 亿美元有所增加。</p>
<p>尽管在数据中心容量上的巨额现金支出，微软的自由现金流仍在持续增长。在其财政第四季度，微软的自由现金流为 256 亿美元，全年为 716 亿美元。这比两年前的 595 亿美元和五年前的 452 亿美元都有所增加。</p>
<p>这一现金流得益于其庞大的企业软件业务和其他附属业务，后者在 2025 财政年度的收入约为 2000 亿美元。这一现金牛支持了建设 Azure 数据中心所需的巨额支出。</p>
<p>相比之下，甲骨文在其数据中心上的支出也很高，计划今年将支出增加 18%，达到 350 亿美元的资本支出。然而，与微软不同，甲骨文必须借债来建设如此规模的支出。在过去四个季度中，其现金流为负，公司烧掉了 59 亿美元。</p>
<p>为了满足需求（大部分来自 OpenAI），建设容量对甲骨文来说是一个巨大的风险。它不仅在用债务杠杆其业务，而且还严重依赖 OpenAI 来使投资获得回报。如果 OpenAI 无法履行其承诺，甲骨文可能会面临过剩的产能，尤其考虑到 LLM 开发者在行业中的风向标作用。</p>
<p>这进一步增强了微软作为投资的稳定性，相比之下甲骨文则显得不那么稳健。</p>
<h2>更好的投资选择显而易见</h2>
<p>微软的案例更清晰的原因在于其相对估值。</p>
<p>微软的股票目前交易价格约为未来收益预期的 33 倍。这无疑是高于整体市场的，但考虑到其业务的强劲和 Azure 及企业软件业务的增长，这个价格是值得的。</p>
<p>相比之下，甲骨文的股票现在交易价格为未来收益预期的 43 倍，此前其第一季度财报发布后股价大幅上涨。这意味着投资者为一只风险更高的股票支付了更高的价格，使得投资更加冒险。</p>
<p>希望寻找一只稳健的 AI 股票来构建投资组合的投资者应该选择微软。</p>

微软

甲骨文

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

MSFO

微软每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微软每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

MSFX

MSFY

<p>这篇文章将甲骨文和微软作为人工智能领域的投资进行了比较，强调了它们在云计算增长方面的表现，这一增长是由对计算能力的需求驱动的。甲骨文预测其云服务的收入将增长 14 倍，背后有 4550 亿美元的订单积压，其中包括来自 OpenAI 的 3000 亿美元承诺。相比之下，微软凭借强劲的现金流和对 Azure 的大量资本支出，处于一个有利的位置。微软的股票交易在前瞻性收益的基础上为 33 倍，而甲骨文为 43 倍，这表明甲骨文的投资风险更高。总体而言，微软被认为是更好的投资选择</p>

<p>The advancements made in artificial intelligence (AI) over the last few years have required exponentially growing amounts of computing power. That's been a huge boon for GPU makers like <strong>Nvidia</strong>, but Nvidia's biggest customers have also benefited by renting out those GPUs to companies training large language models and developing new AI applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年来，人工智能（AI）的进步需要越来越多的计算能力。这对像 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 这样的 GPU 制造商来说是一个巨大的好处，但 Nvidia 最大的客户也通过将这些 GPU 租给训练大型语言模型和开发新 AI 应用的公司而受益。</p>
</div><p><strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.61%) and <strong>Oracle</strong>(ORCL 5.20%) are two of the biggest cloud computing companies benefiting from growing demand for compute. Both are seeing tens of billions of dollars in revenue growth thanks to spending from developers like OpenAI, which has contracts with both cloud providers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微软</strong>（MSFT 0.61%）和 <strong>甲骨文</strong>（ORCL 5.20%）是从日益增长的计算需求中受益的两大云计算公司。由于像 OpenAI 这样的开发者的支出，两家公司都实现了数十亿美元的收入增长，OpenAI 与这两家云服务提供商都有合同。</p>
</div><p>But one company's stock stands out as a better buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但有一家公司的股票目前显得更具吸引力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NDEvZ2V0dHktaW1hZ2VzLW1zZnQtbWljcm9zb2Z0LWJsYWNrLWJhY2tncm91bmQuanBlZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837441%2Fgetty-images-msft-microsoft-black-background.jpeg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The big contract that put Oracle on the map</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>让甲骨文声名鹊起的大合同</h2>
</div><p>Oracle made headlines last month when it forecast a huge jump in demand for its cloud computing service, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI). It expects the business's total revenue to climb 14-fold from last year through the end of the decade. That's supported by a huge backlog of $455 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个月，甲骨文在预测其云计算服务 Oracle Cloud Infrastructure（OCI）需求大幅增长时引起了广泛关注。预计到本世纪末，该业务的总收入将比去年增长 14 倍。这得益于 4550 亿美元的巨大订单积压。</p>
</div><p>That backlog got a boost from OpenAI, which committed to spending $300 billion over five years starting in 2027. That may be surprising for some investors who know Microsoft has a close relationship with OpenAI, after making an initial investment of $1 billion in OpenAI in 2019, adding $2 billion a bit later, and $10 billion in 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一订单积压得到了 OpenAI 的支持，后者承诺在 2027 年开始的五年内支出 3000 亿美元。这可能让一些知道微软与 OpenAI 关系密切的投资者感到惊讶，微软在 2019 年首次投资 OpenAI 10 亿美元，随后又追加了 20 亿美元，并在 2023 年投资了 100 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>But OpenAI and Microsoft changed their relationship at the start of the year. Microsoft is no longer OpenAI's exclusive cloud provider. Instead, OpenAI gives Microsoft the right of first refusal. If Microsoft cannot or will not be able to meet OpenAI's needs, the LLM developer is free to shop around.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 OpenAI 和微软在年初改变了他们的关系。微软不再是 OpenAI 的独家云服务提供商。相反，OpenAI 给予微软优先拒绝权。如果微软无法或不愿满足 OpenAI 的需求，LLM 开发者可以自由寻找其他选择。</p>
</div><p>That means OpenAI came to Microsoft before it went to Oracle with its $300 billion contract, and Microsoft didn't want to take on the business. That may be because Microsoft already has a huge backlog of customers and management has reiterated on multiple earnings calls that growth in demand is outpacing its growth in supply despite heavy capital spending on Azure capacity. It may also be because the terms OpenAI wanted weren't attractive, and Microsoft could demand higher margins from other customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着 OpenAI 在与甲骨文签订 3000 亿美元合同之前先找了微软，而微软不想接手这笔业务。这可能是因为微软已经有了大量的客户订单，管理层在多次财报电话会议上重申，需求的增长速度超过了供应的增长，尽管在 Azure 容量上进行了大量资本支出。也可能是因为 OpenAI 希望的条款并不具吸引力，而微软可以向其他客户要求更高的利润率。</p>
</div><p>In other words, Microsoft is operating from a place of strength, while Oracle is doing whatever it can to catch up to Microsoft and the other hyperscalers. That's even more evident in how the two companies are building their cloud computing businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，微软在一个强势的位置上运营，而甲骨文则在尽一切努力追赶微软和其他超大规模云服务商。这在两家公司构建云计算业务的方式上更加明显。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC1saW5lcy1vZi1zZXJ2ZXItcmFja3MuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837441%2Fgettyimages-data-center-with-lines-of-server-racks.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The race to build enough capacity to meet insatiable demand</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>建设足够容量以满足无法满足的需求的竞争</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft is spending more than just about everyone to build new capacity for Azure. Management expected last quarter's capital expenditures to come in around $30 billion, which is up from $24.2 billion in the prior quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软在为 Azure 建设新容量方面的支出超过了几乎所有人。管理层预计上个季度的资本支出将达到约 300 亿美元，较前一个季度的 242 亿美元有所增加。</p>
</div><p>Despite the massive cash outlays for data center capacity, Microsoft's free cash flow continues to climb. It brought in $25.6 billion during its fiscal fourth quarter, and $71.6 billion for the full year. That's up from $59.5 billion two years ago and $45.2 billion five years ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管在数据中心容量上的巨额现金支出，微软的自由现金流仍在持续增长。在其财政第四季度，微软的自由现金流为 256 亿美元，全年为 716 亿美元。这比两年前的 595 亿美元和五年前的 452 亿美元都有所增加。</p>
</div><p>That cash flow's supported by its massive enterprise software business and other ancillary businesses, which brought in around $200 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025. That cash cow supports the massive spending required to build out Azure's data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一现金流得益于其庞大的企业软件业务和其他附属业务，后者在 2025 财政年度的收入约为 2000 亿美元。这一现金牛支持了建设 Azure 数据中心所需的巨额支出。</p>
</div><p>By comparison, Oracle is spending heavily on its data centers, with plans to increase spending 18% this year to $35 billion in capital expenditures. Unlike Microsoft, however, Oracle must take on debt to build that much. Its cash flow turned negative over the trailing four quarters, with the company burning $5.9 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，甲骨文在其数据中心上的支出也很高，计划今年将支出增加 18%，达到 350 亿美元的资本支出。然而，与微软不同，甲骨文必须借债来建设如此规模的支出。在过去四个季度中，其现金流为负，公司烧掉了 59 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Building out capacity to meet demand, most of which comes from OpenAI, is a big risk for Oracle. Not only is it leveraging its business with debt, but it's also heavily reliant on OpenAI to make the investment pay off. If OpenAI is unable to meet its commitment, Oracle could find itself with excess capacity, especially considering the LLM developer is something of a bellwether for the industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了满足需求（大部分来自 OpenAI），建设容量对甲骨文来说是一个巨大的风险。它不仅在用债务杠杆其业务，而且还严重依赖 OpenAI 来使投资获得回报。如果 OpenAI 无法履行其承诺，甲骨文可能会面临过剩的产能，尤其考虑到 LLM 开发者在行业中的风向标作用。</p>
</div><p>That only adds to the stability of Microsoft as an investment over Oracle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这进一步增强了微软作为投资的稳定性，相比之下甲骨文则显得不那么稳健。</p>
</div><h2>The better buy is clear</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更好的投资选择显而易见</h2>
</div><p>What makes the case for Microsoft even clearer is its relative valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软的案例更清晰的原因在于其相对估值。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Microsoft currently trade for about 33 times forward earnings estimates. That's certainly a premium to the overall market, but considering the strength of its business and the growth it's experiencing from both Azure and its enterprise software business, it's worth the price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软的股票目前交易价格约为未来收益预期的 33 倍。这无疑是高于整体市场的，但考虑到其业务的强劲和 Azure 及企业软件业务的增长，这个价格是值得的。</p>
</div><p>By comparison, Oracle stock now trades for 43 times forward earnings after the stock price jumped following its first-quarter earnings report last month. That means investors are paying a higher price for a riskier stock, making the investment even riskier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，甲骨文的股票现在交易价格为未来收益预期的 43 倍，此前其第一季度财报发布后股价大幅上涨。这意味着投资者为一只风险更高的股票支付了更高的价格，使得投资更加冒险。</p>
</div><p>Investors looking for a solid AI stock to build a portfolio around should choose Microsoft.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>希望寻找一只稳健的 AI 股票来构建投资组合的投资者应该选择微软。</p>
</div>

Oracle vs. Microsoft: Which Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Is a Better Buy Right Now?

- 人工智能的进步推动了对计算能力的需求，惠及 Nvidia 等 GPU 制造商。  
- Oracle 预计其云计算服务收入将增长 14 倍，OpenAI 承诺在 2027 年起支出 3000 亿美元。  
- 相比之下，微软的现金流持续增长，投资风险更低，成为更佳投资选择。

甲骨文与微软：哪只人工智能（AI）股票现在更值得买入？