<p><strong>Joby Aviation</strong>(JOBY 1.25%) 的股票在 2025 年表现火热，截至 10 月 13 日市场收盘大约翻了一番。</p>
<p>这家公司正在设计一种电动垂直起降（eVTOL）飞行器，受益于多种有利因素，包括白宫的一项行政命令，旨在加速 eVTOL 的部署。</p>
<p>随着其逐步接近全面的 FAA 认证，Joby 看起来越来越不具投机性，尽管它距离盈利还有很长的路要走。该股票从近期高点大约下跌了 20%。现在是购买 Joby 股票的好时机吗？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzI3MDMvam9ieS1wcm9kdWN0aW9uLXByb3RvdHlwZS01LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzI3MDMvam9ieS1wcm9kdWN0aW9uLXByb3RvdHlwZS01LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>Joby eVTOL。图片来源：Joby Aviation。</p>
<h2>已证明的与已定价的</h2>
<p>Joby 是 eVTOL 行业的先驱。实际上，其首架符合标准的飞行器目前正在进行 FAA 飞行测试的最终组装，这是朝着认证迈出的重要一步，可能最终将所有的炒作转化为商业化。</p>
<p>目前，Joby 仍处于开发阶段。它没有获得监管批准将付费乘客送上空中，也没有现成的飞机来实现这一点。预计至少到明年，它不会产生显著的收入。</p>
<p>与此同时，其总可寻址市场可能值得付出努力。例如，<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 估计，到 2050 年，城市空中出行的市场规模可能达到 9 万亿美元。</p>
<p>随着城市变得越来越拥挤，Joby 的卖点也可能变得更加有说服力。</p>
<p>但在讨论 Joby 的飞机是否能改变城市交通之前，首先要问的是它是否能在商业模式得以实现之前，维持足够长的运营时间。</p>
<p>截至 6 月底，该公司拥有约 9.91 亿美元的现金，年烧钱率约为 5 亿美元。10 月 7 日，它通过股票出售筹集了约 5.14 亿美元，这为其注入了现金，但也稀释了股东的股份。</p>
<p>在今天的估值下，乐观情绪高涨。激进的投资者可能会对风险感到舒适，但采取保守策略的投资者可能希望等待更具体的结果。</p>

JOBY

<p>Joby Aviation 的股票在 2025 年飙升，到 10 月中旬翻了一番，这得益于一项加快电动垂直起降飞行器（eVTOL）部署的行政命令。尽管接近 FAA 认证，该公司仍处于亏损状态，并且从近期高点下跌了 20%。到 2050 年，潜在市场规模可达 9 万亿美元，Joby 面临着生存挑战，目前现金为 9.91 亿美元，年烧钱率为 5 亿美元。投资者意见分歧；激进的投资者可能会选择现在买入，而保守的投资者则可能会等待更明确的结果</p>

<p><strong>Joby Aviation</strong>(JOBY 1.25%) stock has had a hot run in 2025, roughly doubling through market close Oct. 13.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Joby Aviation</strong>(JOBY 1.25%) 的股票在 2025 年表现火热，截至 10 月 13 日市场收盘大约翻了一番。</p>
</div><p>The company, which is designing an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicle, has been riding on a combination of tailwinds, including an executive order from the White House to accelerate the deployment of eVTOLs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家公司正在设计一种电动垂直起降（eVTOL）飞行器，受益于多种有利因素，包括白宫的一项行政命令，旨在加速 eVTOL 的部署。</p>
</div><p>As it inches toward full FAA certification, Joby is looking less and less speculative, though, to be sure, it has a long way to go to reach profitability. The stock has tumbled roughly 20% from recent highs. Is now the time to buy before Joby takes off?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着其逐步接近全面的 FAA 认证，Joby 看起来越来越不具投机性，尽管它距离盈利还有很长的路要走。该股票从近期高点大约下跌了 20%。现在是购买 Joby 股票的好时机吗？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzI3MDMvam9ieS1wcm9kdWN0aW9uLXByb3RvdHlwZS01LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832703%2Fjoby-production-prototype-5.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Joby eVTOLs. Image source: Joby Aviation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Joby eVTOL。图片来源：Joby Aviation。</p>
</div><h2>What's been proven versus what's been priced in</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>已证明的与已定价的</h2>
</div><p>Joby is a forerunner in the eVTOL industry. Indeed, its first conforming craft is now in final assembly for FAA flight testing, which is a huge step toward certification that could finally turn all the hype into commercialization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Joby 是 eVTOL 行业的先驱。实际上，其首架符合标准的飞行器目前正在进行 FAA 飞行测试的最终组装，这是朝着认证迈出的重要一步，可能最终将所有的炒作转化为商业化。</p>
</div><p>Right now, Joby is still in its development stage. It doesn't have regulatory approval to put paying passengers in the air, nor does it have the aircraft on hand to do so. It's not expected to generate significant revenue until at least next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，Joby 仍处于开发阶段。它没有获得监管批准将付费乘客送上空中，也没有现成的飞机来实现这一点。预计至少到明年，它不会产生显著的收入。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, its total addressable market could be worth the effort. <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong>, for instance, estimates that urban air mobility could hit $9 trillion by 2050.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，其总可寻址市场可能值得付出努力。例如，<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 估计，到 2050 年，城市空中出行的市场规模可能达到 9 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>As cities become more congested, Joby's selling point could also become more persuasive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着城市变得越来越拥挤，Joby 的卖点也可能变得更加有说服力。</p>
</div><p>But before the question of whether Joby's aircraft can change urban transportation is the question of whether it can stay in business long enough for its thesis to play out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在讨论 Joby 的飞机是否能改变城市交通之前，首先要问的是它是否能在商业模式得以实现之前，维持足够长的运营时间。</p>
</div><p>At the end of June, the company had about $991 million in cash and an annual burn rate of about $500 million. On Oct. 7, it raised about $514 million through a stock sale, which gave it a cash injection but also diluted shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 6 月底，该公司拥有约 9.91 亿美元的现金，年烧钱率约为 5 亿美元。10 月 7 日，它通过股票出售筹集了约 5.14 亿美元，这为其注入了现金，但也稀释了股东的股份。</p>
</div><p>At today's valuation, optimism runs high. Aggressive investors may feel comfortable with the risk, but those with a conservative approach may want to wait for more concrete results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今天的估值下，乐观情绪高涨。激进的投资者可能会对风险感到舒适，但采取保守策略的投资者可能希望等待更具体的结果。</p>
</div>

现在是否应该购买 Joby Aviation 的股票？