<p><strong>关键要点：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>如果$110,000 支撑位失守，比特币面临向$96,500–$100,000 修正的风险。</li>
<li>链上和技术图形表明这是一个健康的中期调整，而不是完全的趋势反转。</li>
</ul>
<p>比特币在经历重大周末暴跌后的反弹在周二显示出减弱的迹象。</p>
<p>这款顶级加密货币下跌了 4.65%，降至约$110,000，反映出全球股市因中国对五家与韩国最大造船商相关的美国公司实施限制而下滑，并警告可能进一步报复。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-fdbb4d8491549b617a31d78d08dbb408-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-fdbb4d8491549b617a31d78d08dbb408-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>比特币的$110,000 水平在 2025 年多次在阻力和支撑之间反转。早期的拒绝导致了 19%–30% 的下跌，而 7 月后的反弹则推动了 12%–15% 的上涨。</p>
<p>让我们来看看如果$110,000 支撑位失守，比特币可能会跌到多低。</p>
<p><strong>比特币的扩张楔形暗示$100,000</strong></p>
<p>多项分析表明，如果$110,000 支撑位无法维持，比特币价格向$100,000 下跌的可能性增加。</p>
<p>这包括图表分析师 BitBull 强调的 “巨型看涨通道”，显示比特币价格在一个扩张楔形内波动。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-48ba7023c608dbad3579ac0dbc595ab0-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-48ba7023c608dbad3579ac0dbc595ab0-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>截至周二，比特币处于修正阶段的中间位置，测试了楔形的上趋势线作为阻力。历史上，此类修正通常在通道的下趋势线附近耗尽，这与$100,000-$103,000 区域重合。</p>
<p>该区域还与比特币的 50 周指数移动平均线（50 周 EMA，红色波浪表示）和 1.618 斐波那契回撤线对齐，赋予其作为潜在目标区的技术权重。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-30fe9358d459a7549d9c69ef2b607bac-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-30fe9358d459a7549d9c69ef2b607bac-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p><strong>比特币指标暗示$96,500 目标（或更低）</strong></p>
<p>根据 Glassnode 的 MVRV 极端偏差定价带，比特币目前交易在其 +0.5 标准差带（+0.5σ带；橙色）以下，接近$119,000。</p>
<p>MVRV 极端偏差定价带是一个链上模型，跟踪当前市场价格与比特币的 “公允价值” 之间的偏差，基于大多数持有者为其币支付的价格（实现价格）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-6c3344bd54f19072280c79ceace22693-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-6c3344bd54f19072280c79ceace22693-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>历史上，当比特币失去这个 +0.5σ带作为支撑时，往往会回归到均值带（黄色），目前大约在$96,500。</p>
<p>在 2024 年 12 月到 2025 年 4 月的修正期间，发生了类似的 “均值回归” 阶段，当时比特币从 +0.5σ水平（约 66,980）下跌到均值带（约$53,900），然后迅速反弹。</p>
<p>这个分形表明当前的设置可能只是更广泛牛市中的另一个降温阶段，是为了清除过度杠杆和过热估值的重置，为下一轮上涨做准备。</p>
<p>然而，跌破均值回归目标可能会触发熊市，下一下行目标约为$74,000。</p>
<p>本文不包含投资建议或推荐。每项投资和交易行为都涉及风险，读者在做出决策时应进行自己的研究。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特币面临向 96,500 美元至 100,000 美元修正的风险，如果 110,000 美元的支撑位失效。近期的链上数据和技术图形表明，这是一个周期中期的调整，而非完全的趋势反转。在比特币下跌 4.65% 至约 110,000 美元后，分析师建议，如果这一支撑位被突破，比特币可能会进一步下跌，潜在地达到 100,000 美元甚至 96,500 美元。跌破这一水平可能会标志着熊市的到来，目标价位在 74,000 美元左右。此分析不构成投资建议</p>

<p><strong>Key takeaways:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>关键要点：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>Bitcoin risks a correction toward $96,500–$100,000 if the $110,000 support fails.</li>
<li>Onchain and technical patterns suggest a healthy mid-cycle reset, not a full trend reversal.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如果$110,000 支撑位失守，比特币面临向$96,500–$100,000 修正的风险。</li>
<li>链上和技术图形表明这是一个健康的中期调整，而不是完全的趋势反转。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Bitcoin’s  rebound after a major weekend plunge showed signs of fading on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币在经历重大周末暴跌后的反弹在周二显示出减弱的迹象。</p>
</div><p>The top crypto dipped 4.65% to around $110,000, mirroring a global equity slump after China imposed restrictions on five US firms linked to South Korea’s largest shipbuilder, warning of further retaliation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这款顶级加密货币下跌了 4.65%，降至约$110,000，反映出全球股市因中国对五家与韩国最大造船商相关的美国公司实施限制而下滑，并警告可能进一步报复。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-fdbb4d8491549b617a31d78d08dbb408-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-fdbb4d8491549b617a31d78d08dbb408-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Bitcoin’s $110,000 level has repeatedly flipped between resistance and support in 2025. Earlier rejections triggered 19–30% declines, while post-July rebounds from this zone fueled 12–15% rallies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币的$110,000 水平在 2025 年多次在阻力和支撑之间反转。早期的拒绝导致了 19%–30% 的下跌，而 7 月后的反弹则推动了 12%–15% 的上涨。</p>
</div><p>Let’s examine how low BTC could go if the $110,000 support fails.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们来看看如果$110,000 支撑位失守，比特币可能会跌到多低。</p>
</div><p><strong>Bitcoin's broadening wedge hints at $100,000</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特币的扩张楔形暗示$100,000</strong></p>
</div><p>Multiple analyses suggest that the odds of the BTC price declining toward $100,000 increase if the $110,000 support level fails to hold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多项分析表明，如果$110,000 支撑位无法维持，比特币价格向$100,000 下跌的可能性增加。</p>
</div><p>That includes a “giant bullish channel” highlighted by chartist BitBull, which showed BTC price fluctuating inside a broadening wedge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这包括图表分析师 BitBull 强调的 “巨型看涨通道”，显示比特币价格在一个扩张楔形内波动。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-48ba7023c608dbad3579ac0dbc595ab0-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-48ba7023c608dbad3579ac0dbc595ab0-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>As of Tuesday, Bitcoin was in the middle of a correction stage after testing the wedge’s upper trendline as resistance. Historically, such corrections exhausted near the channel’s lower trendline, which coincides with the $100,000-$103,000 area.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至周二，比特币处于修正阶段的中间位置，测试了楔形的上趋势线作为阻力。历史上，此类修正通常在通道的下趋势线附近耗尽，这与$100,000-$103,000 区域重合。</p>
</div><p>This region also aligns with Bitcoin’s 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA, represented by the red wave) and the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement line, lending technical weight to it as a potential target zone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该区域还与比特币的 50 周指数移动平均线（50 周 EMA，红色波浪表示）和 1.618 斐波那契回撤线对齐，赋予其作为潜在目标区的技术权重。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-30fe9358d459a7549d9c69ef2b607bac-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-30fe9358d459a7549d9c69ef2b607bac-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p><strong>BTC metric suggests $96,500 target (or worse)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特币指标暗示$96,500 目标（或更低）</strong></p>
</div><p>Bitcoin is now trading below its +0.5 standard deviation band (+0.5σ band; orange) near $119,000, according to Glassnode’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Glassnode 的 MVRV 极端偏差定价带，比特币目前交易在其 +0.5 标准差带（+0.5σ带；橙色）以下，接近$119,000。</p>
</div><p>The MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands is an onchain model that tracks how far the current market price deviates from Bitcoin’s “fair value,” based on what most holders paid for their coins (the realized price).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MVRV 极端偏差定价带是一个链上模型，跟踪当前市场价格与比特币的 “公允价值” 之间的偏差，基于大多数持有者为其币支付的价格（实现价格）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-6c3344bd54f19072280c79ceace22693-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-6c3344bd54f19072280c79ceace22693-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Historically, when BTC loses this +0.5σ band as support, it tends to revert toward the mean band (yellow), which currently sits around $96,500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，当比特币失去这个 +0.5σ带作为支撑时，往往会回归到均值带（黄色），目前大约在$96,500。</p>
</div><p>A similar “mean reversion” phase occurred during the December 2024–April 2025 correction, when Bitcoin dropped from the +0.5σ level (~66,980) to the mean band (~$53,900) before rebounding sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年 12 月到 2025 年 4 月的修正期间，发生了类似的 “均值回归” 阶段，当时比特币从 +0.5σ水平（约 66,980）下跌到均值带（约$53,900），然后迅速反弹。</p>
</div><p>This fractal suggests the current setup may simply be another cooling-off phase within a broader bull market, a reset to shake out excess leverage and overheated valuations before the next leg higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个分形表明当前的设置可能只是更广泛牛市中的另一个降温阶段，是为了清除过度杠杆和过热估值的重置，为下一轮上涨做准备。</p>
</div><p>A drop below the mean reversion target, however, could risk triggering a bear market, with the next downside target at around $74,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，跌破均值回归目标可能会触发熊市，下一下行目标约为$74,000。</p>
</div><p>This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文不包含投资建议或推荐。每项投资和交易行为都涉及风险，读者在做出决策时应进行自己的研究。</p>
</div>

如果 11 万美元的比特币支撑位失守，比特币价格可能会跌到多低？