<p>在过去的三十年里，投资者几乎一直有一个颠覆性的创新或下一个大趋势来激发他们的兴趣。例子包括互联网的出现、基因组解码、纳米技术、3D 打印、区块链技术、元宇宙，以及最近人工智能（AI）的崛起。</p>
<p>但在更为罕见的情况下，多个下一个大趋势共存，例如我们现在所见的 AI 革命和量子计算的出现。</p>
<p>量子计算依赖于量子力学和专用计算机来解决传统计算机无法执行的复杂问题。量子计算机有潜力加速药物发现，推动 AI 算法的学习能力，并能够使网络安全平台更加安全，以及其他现实世界的应用案例。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NTQvcXVhbnR1bS1jb21wdXRlci1kaWdpdGFsLWRhdGEtY2FsY3VsYXRpb25zLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NTQvcXVhbnR1bS1jb21wdXRlci1kaWdpdGFsLWRhdGEtY2FsY3VsYXRpb25zLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>尽管对量子计算的可寻址机会估计差异很大，但一些人认为这一技术到 2035 年至 2040 年时将接近或达到 1 万亿美元的全球经济附加值。这是一个足够大的数字，可以支持多个赢家，并吸引寻求增长的投资者。</p>
<p>华尔街最受欢迎的量子计算纯粹股票在过去一年中绝对飙升（截至 10 月 10 日收盘）：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -5.53%): 增长 620%</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI 1.93%): 增长 5,710%</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS 5.96%): 增长 3,600%</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT 1.42%): 增长 2,780%</li>
</ul>
<p>尽管如此，这种规模的增长往往会吸引投资者，但它们也可能暴露出量子计算革命面临的炒作和巨大的风险。以下四个逆风都有可能 derail IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave 和 Quantum Computing, Inc. 正在享受的抛物线式上升。</p>
<h2>1. 历史对早期创新并不友好</h2>
<p>华尔街四只量子计算纯粹股票面临的第一个不可否认的问题是，历史在过去三十年（甚至更长时间）对炒作技术和下一个大趋势并没有错过。</p>
<p>具体来说，炒作的技术和创新总是经历早期的泡沫破裂事件。这就是说，投资者可预测地高估了新引入的技术或趋势的效用和/或采用率，最终导致高昂的增长预测未能实现。我们在互联网的普及、基因组解码、中国股票的崛起、纳米技术、3D 打印、区块链技术、大麻和元宇宙中见证了这一模式的发生。</p>
<p>量子计算的崛起并没有表明它会成为这一不成文规则的例外。尽管这项技术有很多现实世界的潜力，但企业在优化其解决方案或从量子计算投资中获得正回报方面还远未达到。</p>
<p>根据历史告诉我们的，泡沫的所有特征都已牢牢确立。</p>
<h2>2. 融资努力可能会稀释现有股东的权益</h2>
<p>IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc. 面临的第二个重大风险是它们很可能需要稀释股东权益（多次）以筹集资金并维持运营。</p>
<p>尽管未来几年这四家公司都有巨大的销售增长潜力，但它们在运营中集体亏损严重，并且正在消耗其资产负债表上的现金。2025 年前六个月的运营亏损如下：</p>
<ul>
<li>IonQ: 2.363 亿美元</li>
<li>Rigetti Computing: 4150 万美元</li>
<li>D-Wave Quantum: 3780 万美元</li>
<li>Quantum Computing, Inc.: 1850 万美元</li>
</ul>
<p>由于这些公司在运营方面尚未得到验证，传统的信贷和债务解决方案可能会受到限制。换句话说，发行股票并增加其流通股数量可能是未来几年筹集资金的唯一可靠方法，这预计会对股东产生不利影响。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NTQvbWFnbmlmaXlpbmctZ2xhc3MtZmluYW5jaWFsLW5ld3NwYXBlci1tYXJrZXQtZGF0YS1zdG9ja3MtZWNvbm9teS1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NTQvbWFnbmlmaXlpbmctZ2xhc3MtZmluYW5jaWFsLW5ld3NwYXBlci1tYXJrZXQtZGF0YS1zdG9ja3MtZWNvbm9teS1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>3. 历史高估值无法得到合理解释</h2>
<p>如果你认为股市历史上价格过高，那就更仔细看看华尔街的量子计算纯粹股票！</p>
<p>请记住，“价值” 是一个主观术语，在华尔街没有完美的蓝图，经过时间考验的市盈率（P/S）比率在试图证明 IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave 和 Quantum Computing, Inc. 现有估值时几乎没有容错空间。</p>
<p>在互联网的出现和普及之后，领先企业如 <strong>Cisco Systems</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 的过去 12 个月（TTM）P/S 比率大约在 30 到 40 之间达到峰值。历史先例一再表明，P/S 比率达到 30 或更高在华尔街并不被宽容或可持续。</p>
<p>在 TTM 基础上，股市的量子计算宠儿的 P/S 比率（四舍五入到最接近的整数）分别为：</p>
<ul>
<li>IonQ: 308</li>
<li>Rigetti Computing: 1,406</li>
<li>D-Wave Quantum: 379</li>
<li>Quantum Computing, Inc.: 8,965</li>
</ul>
<p>即使我们查看华尔街对 2029 年的共识销售预期，四年后，我们仍在谈论预计的 P/S 比率在 30 到 90 之间，这在历史上是不可持续的。</p>
<h2>4. “七大奇迹” 的深厚资金是一个不可否认的威胁</h2>
<p>量子计算的 Fab 4 纯粹股票面临的第四个也是最后一个重大风险是 Mag 7。</p>
<p>华尔街的 “七大巨头” 股票代表了其在人工智能、云计算和广告等多个领域中最具影响力的企业。这七只股票是迄今为止在美国交易的 10 只市值达到万亿美元的股票之一。最重要的是，除了 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 在最近几个季度的表现外，该集团的成员都在产生大量的运营现金流。实际上，巨额的股票回购计划和/或分红支付已经变得司空见惯。</p>
<p>目前，亚马逊的量子计算服务 Braket 正在为客户提供来自 IonQ 和 Rigetti Computing 的专业计算机。但考虑到亚马逊及其七大巨头同行拥有比他们知道如何使用的更多资本，并且希望在每一个下一个重大创新中处于领先地位，期待他们外包量子计算基础设施的需求似乎不太现实。</p>
<p>尽管 IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.在这一领域毫无疑问拥有先发优势，但七大巨头公司的资金实力和影响力使他们在长期内占据了更大的优势。</p>

QBTS

IONQ

RGTI

<p>本文讨论了量子计算公司 IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.面临的重大风险。尽管这些公司的股票表现令人印象深刻，但它们可能面临一些挑战，例如历史上过度炒作技术导致市场修正的模式、由于融资需求可能导致的股东稀释，以及基于市销率的不可持续的高估值。尽管量子计算领域前景广阔，但可能并不免于历史上影响早期创新的陷阱</p>

<p>Over the last three decades, investors have pretty consistently had a game-changing innovation or next-big-thing trend to pique their interest. Examples include the advent of the internet, genome decoding, nanotechnology, 3D printing, blockchain technology, the metaverse, and most recently the rise of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的三十年里，投资者几乎一直有一个颠覆性的创新或下一个大趋势来激发他们的兴趣。例子包括互联网的出现、基因组解码、纳米技术、3D 打印、区块链技术、元宇宙，以及最近人工智能（AI）的崛起。</p>
</div><p>But in rarer instances, multiple next-big-thing trends have coexisted, such as we're witnessing now with the AI revolution and the emergence of quantum computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在更为罕见的情况下，多个下一个大趋势共存，例如我们现在所见的 AI 革命和量子计算的出现。</p>
</div><p>Quantum computing relies on quantum mechanics and specialized computers to solve complex problems that traditional computers can't perform. Quantum computers can potentially speed up drug discovery, kick the learning aspect of AI algorithms into overdrive, and have the ability to make cybersecurity platforms more secure, among other real-world use cases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子计算依赖于量子力学和专用计算机来解决传统计算机无法执行的复杂问题。量子计算机有潜力加速药物发现，推动 AI 算法的学习能力，并能够使网络安全平台更加安全，以及其他现实世界的应用案例。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NTQvcXVhbnR1bS1jb21wdXRlci1kaWdpdGFsLWRhdGEtY2FsY3VsYXRpb25zLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837454%2Fquantum-computer-digital-data-calculations-artificial-intelligence-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Although addressable opportunity estimates vary wildly for quantum computing, some see this technology approaching or reaching $1 trillion in added global economic value by 2035 to 2040. This is a big enough number to support multiple winners, and as well as entice growth-seeking investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管对量子计算的可寻址机会估计差异很大，但一些人认为这一技术到 2035 年至 2040 年时将接近或达到 1 万亿美元的全球经济附加值。这是一个足够大的数字，可以支持多个赢家，并吸引寻求增长的投资者。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street's most popular quantum computing pure-play stocks have absolutely soared over the trailing year (as of the closing bell on Oct. 10):</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街最受欢迎的量子计算纯粹股票在过去一年中绝对飙升（截至 10 月 10 日收盘）：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -5.53%): 620% gain</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI 1.93%): 5,710% gain</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS 5.96%): 3,600% gain</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT 1.42%): 2,780% gain</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -5.53%): 增长 620%</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI 1.93%): 增长 5,710%</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS 5.96%): 增长 3,600%</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT 1.42%): 增长 2,780%</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Though gains of this magnitude tend to attract investors, they can also expose the hype and monumental risks facing the quantum computing revolution. The following four headwinds all have the potential to derail the parabolic ascents IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing, Inc. are enjoying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，这种规模的增长往往会吸引投资者，但它们也可能暴露出量子计算革命面临的炒作和巨大的风险。以下四个逆风都有可能 derail IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave 和 Quantum Computing, Inc. 正在享受的抛物线式上升。</p>
</div><h2>1. History is no friend of early-stage innovations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 历史对早期创新并不友好</h2>
</div><p>The first undeniable issue for Wall Street's four quantum computing pure-play stocks is that history hasn't been wrong about hyped technologies and next-big-thing trends in over three decades (if not longer).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街四只量子计算纯粹股票面临的第一个不可否认的问题是，历史在过去三十年（甚至更长时间）对炒作技术和下一个大趋势并没有错过。</p>
</div><p>Specifically, hyped technologies and innovations have always endured an early innings bubble-bursting event. This is to say that investors have predictably overestimated the utility and/or adoption of a newly introduced technology or trend, which eventually leads to lofty growth projections not being met. We witnessed this pattern play out with the proliferation of the internet, genome decoding, the rise of China stocks, nanotechnology, 3D printing, blockchain technology, cannabis, and the metaverse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具体来说，炒作的技术和创新总是经历早期的泡沫破裂事件。这就是说，投资者可预测地高估了新引入的技术或趋势的效用和/或采用率，最终导致高昂的增长预测未能实现。我们在互联网的普及、基因组解码、中国股票的崛起、纳米技术、3D 打印、区块链技术、大麻和元宇宙中见证了这一模式的发生。</p>
</div><p>Nothing about the rise of quantum computing suggests it's going to be the exception to this unwritten rule. While there's plenty of real-world promise with this technology, businesses aren't anywhere close to optimizing its solutions or generating a positive return on quantum computing investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子计算的崛起并没有表明它会成为这一不成文规则的例外。尽管这项技术有很多现实世界的潜力，但企业在优化其解决方案或从量子计算投资中获得正回报方面还远未达到。</p>
</div><p>All the hallmarks of a bubble are firmly in place, based on what history tells us.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据历史告诉我们的，泡沫的所有特征都已牢牢确立。</p>
</div><h2>2. Capital-raising efforts are likely to dilute existing shareholders</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 融资努力可能会稀释现有股东的权益</h2>
</div><p>A second significant risk for IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing, Inc. is the very real possibility that they'll need to dilute their shareholders (on numerous occasions) to raise capital and keep the lights on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc. 面临的第二个重大风险是它们很可能需要稀释股东权益（多次）以筹集资金并维持运营。</p>
</div><p>In spite of substantial sales growth potential for all four companies over the next couple of years, they're collectively losing a boatload of money from their operations and burning through what cash they have on their balance sheets. Operating losses through the first six months of 2025 are as follows:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管未来几年这四家公司都有巨大的销售增长潜力，但它们在运营中集体亏损严重，并且正在消耗其资产负债表上的现金。2025 年前六个月的运营亏损如下：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>IonQ: $236.3 million</li>
<li>Rigetti Computing: $41.5 million</li>
<li>D-Wave Quantum: $37.8 million</li>
<li>Quantum Computing, Inc.: $18.5 million</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>IonQ: 2.363 亿美元</li>
<li>Rigetti Computing: 4150 万美元</li>
<li>D-Wave Quantum: 3780 万美元</li>
<li>Quantum Computing, Inc.: 1850 万美元</li>
</ul>
</div><p>With these companies unproven from an operating standpoint, traditional credit and debt solutions may be limited. In other words, issuing stock and increasing their outstanding share count may be the only surefire method of raising capital in the coming years, which would be expected to adversely impact shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于这些公司在运营方面尚未得到验证，传统的信贷和债务解决方案可能会受到限制。换句话说，发行股票并增加其流通股数量可能是未来几年筹集资金的唯一可靠方法，这预计会对股东产生不利影响。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NTQvbWFnbmlmaXlpbmctZ2xhc3MtZmluYW5jaWFsLW5ld3NwYXBlci1tYXJrZXQtZGF0YS1zdG9ja3MtZWNvbm9teS1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837454%2Fmagnifiying-glass-financial-newspaper-market-data-stocks-economy-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>3. Historically high valuations can't be justified</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 历史高估值无法得到合理解释</h2>
</div><p>If you think the stock market is historically pricey, take a closer look at Wall Street's pure-play quantum computing stocks!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你认为股市历史上价格过高，那就更仔细看看华尔街的量子计算纯粹股票！</p>
</div><p>Keeping in mind that &#34;value&#34; is a subjective term with no perfect blueprint on Wall Street, the time-tested price-to-sales (P/S) ratio leaves little room for error or ground to stand on when attempting to justify the existing valuations of IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请记住，“价值” 是一个主观术语，在华尔街没有完美的蓝图，经过时间考验的市盈率（P/S）比率在试图证明 IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave 和 Quantum Computing, Inc. 现有估值时几乎没有容错空间。</p>
</div><p>Following the advent and proliferation of the internet, leading businesses, such as <strong>Cisco Systems</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, and <strong>Microsoft</strong>, peaked with trailing-12-month (TTM) P/S ratios in roughly the 30 to 40 range. Historical precedent has repeatedly shown than P/S ratios of 30 or greater aren't well tolerated or sustainable on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在互联网的出现和普及之后，领先企业如 <strong>Cisco Systems</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 的过去 12 个月（TTM）P/S 比率大约在 30 到 40 之间达到峰值。历史先例一再表明，P/S 比率达到 30 或更高在华尔街并不被宽容或可持续。</p>
</div><p>On a TTM basis, the stock market's quantum computing darlings are sporting respective P/S ratios of (rounded to the nearest whole number):</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 TTM 基础上，股市的量子计算宠儿的 P/S 比率（四舍五入到最接近的整数）分别为：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>IonQ: 308</li>
<li>Rigetti Computing: 1,406</li>
<li>D-Wave Quantum: 379</li>
<li>Quantum Computing, Inc.: 8,965</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>IonQ: 308</li>
<li>Rigetti Computing: 1,406</li>
<li>D-Wave Quantum: 379</li>
<li>Quantum Computing, Inc.: 8,965</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Even if we look at Wall Street's consensus sales estimates for 2029, four years from now, we're still talking about projected P/S ratios of 30 to 90, which is historically unsustainable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使我们查看华尔街对 2029 年的共识销售预期，四年后，我们仍在谈论预计的 P/S 比率在 30 到 90 之间，这在历史上是不可持续的。</p>
</div><h2>4. The deep pockets of the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; are an undeniable threat</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. “七大奇迹” 的深厚资金是一个不可否认的威胁</h2>
</div><p>The fourth and final monumental risk for quantum computing's Fab 4 pure-play stocks is the Mag 7.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子计算的 Fab 4 纯粹股票面临的第四个也是最后一个重大风险是 Mag 7。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street's &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stocks represent its most influential businesses in AI, cloud computing, and advertising, among other ventures. These are seven of the 10 U.S.-traded stocks to have ever reached the trillion-dollar market cap plateau. Most importantly, with the exception of <strong>Tesla</strong> in recent quarters, the group's members are all generating boatloads of operating cash flow. So much, in fact, that mammoth share buyback programs and/or dividend payments have become commonplace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街的 “七大巨头” 股票代表了其在人工智能、云计算和广告等多个领域中最具影响力的企业。这七只股票是迄今为止在美国交易的 10 只市值达到万亿美元的股票之一。最重要的是，除了 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 在最近几个季度的表现外，该集团的成员都在产生大量的运营现金流。实际上，巨额的股票回购计划和/或分红支付已经变得司空见惯。</p>
</div><p>Currently, Amazon's quantum computing service Braket is giving clients access to specialized computers from IonQ and Rigetti Computing. But it seems unrealistic to expect Amazon and its Mag 7 peers to outsource their quantum computing infrastructure needs when they have more capital than they know what to do with and a desire to be the on the leading edge of every next-big-thing innovation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，亚马逊的量子计算服务 Braket 正在为客户提供来自 IonQ 和 Rigetti Computing 的专业计算机。但考虑到亚马逊及其七大巨头同行拥有比他们知道如何使用的更多资本，并且希望在每一个下一个重大创新中处于领先地位，期待他们外包量子计算基础设施的需求似乎不太现实。</p>
</div><p>While there's little doubt that IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing, Inc. have first-mover advantages within this arena, the considerably deeper pockets and influence of Mag 7 companies give them a longer-term edge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.在这一领域毫无疑问拥有先发优势，但七大巨头公司的资金实力和影响力使他们在长期内占据了更大的优势。</p>
</div>

超越炒作：IonQ、Rigetti Computing 和 D-Wave Quantum 这三家量子计算纯粹公司的四大风险