<p>美国正朝着金融危机的方向发展，过程缓慢，<strong>大卫·凯利</strong>，<strong>摩根大通资产管理</strong> 的首席全球策略师对此表示警告。</p>
<h2>在经济压力下，债务可能会更快上升</h2>
<p>凯利强调了美国政府长期财务义务的重大担忧。他指出，尽管存在地缘政治紧张、贸易战和政府停摆，但主要问题在于政府将如何管理其债务。</p>
<p>他承认投资者已经意识到债务的轨迹，但强调这一问题将随着时间的推移逐渐发展。“……虽然我们正在破产，但我们是缓慢破产的，” 凯利说。</p>
<p>他还警告称，债务可能比预期更快上升，特别是在经济衰退发生或在国内或国际优先事项上有重大新支出时。</p>
<p>根据他们的假设，债务与 GDP 的比率将从 9 月 30 日的 99.9% 上升到 12 个月后的 102.2%。</p>
<h2>政治可能加剧债务，打击美元</h2>
<p>他还警告称，政治决策可能加速联邦财政的恶化，可能导致长期利率上升和美元贬值。</p>
<p>“政治选择可能导致联邦财政更快恶化，这是一种危险，” 凯利写道。</p>
<p>根据凯利的说法，美国政府仍然可以以仅 4.6% 的收益率发行 30 年期债务，这表明仍有额外借贷的能力。他还敦促投资者考虑在当前配置和估值下，通过替代资产和国际股票来分散投资组合。</p>
<h2>美国支出超过收入</h2>
<p>凯利的警告是在对美国国债日益担忧的背景下提出的。亿万富翁投资者、<strong>桥水基金</strong> 创始人 <strong>瑞·达里奥</strong> 此前曾预测在三年内将发生 “债务引发的经济心脏病”，并将美国的赤字比作一生中过度摄入脂肪食物和吸烟的结果。</p>
<p>达里奥在另一项警告中表示，国家债务情况正处于关键时刻，称该国现在的支出比收入多出 40%。</p>
<p>与此同时，<strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 总统曾建议美国可以用比特币（CRYPTO: BTC）偿还其 37 万亿美元的债务负担。然而，根据财政部数据和区块链供应指标的计算，比特币大约 1993 万枚的流通供应需要达到 37000 亿美元的总价值才能抵消美国的债务负担。</p>
<p><strong>接下来阅读：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>贾斯廷·沃尔弗斯警告 ‘两个经济体：’‘我们正处于非人工智能衰退的边缘’</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>图片来源于 Shutterstock</em></p>

<p>摩根大通资产管理的首席全球策略师 David Kelly 警告称，由于不断增加的债务以及政治决策的加剧，美国正缓慢走向金融危机。他预测，债务与 GDP 的比率可能在一年内从 99.9% 上升至 102.2%，尤其是在经济衰退发生的情况下。Kelly 强调，投资者需要多元化投资组合，因为美国的支出超过了收入。亿万富翁投资者 Ray Dalio 也对与国家债务相关的潜在经济危机表示警惕，目前国家债务比收入高出 40%</p>

<p>The U.S. is heading towards a financial crisis, and the process is happening at a slow pace, cautioned <strong>David Kelly,</strong> the chief global strategist at <strong>J.P. Morgan Asset Management</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国正朝着金融危机的方向发展，过程缓慢，<strong>大卫·凯利</strong>，<strong>摩根大通资产管理</strong> 的首席全球策略师对此表示警告。</p>
</div><h2>Debt Could Rise Faster Amid Economic Strains</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在经济压力下，债务可能会更快上升</h2>
</div><p>Kelly highlighted the U.S. government’s long-term financial obligations as a major concern. He pointed out that despite geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and the government shutdown, the primary issue is how the government will manage its debts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凯利强调了美国政府长期财务义务的重大担忧。他指出，尽管存在地缘政治紧张、贸易战和政府停摆，但主要问题在于政府将如何管理其债务。</p>
</div><p>He acknowledged that investors are already aware of the debt trajectory but emphasized that the issue will develop gradually over time. “…while we are going broke, we are going broke slowly,” said Kelly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他承认投资者已经意识到债务的轨迹，但强调这一问题将随着时间的推移逐渐发展。“……虽然我们正在破产，但我们是缓慢破产的，” 凯利说。</p>
</div><p>He also cautioned that debt could rise more quickly than expected, particularly if a recession occurs or if there is significant new spending on domestic or international priorities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他还警告称，债务可能比预期更快上升，特别是在经济衰退发生或在国内或国际优先事项上有重大新支出时。</p>
</div><p>As per their assumptions, the debt-to-GDP ratio would rise from 99.9% on Sept. 30 to 102.2% of GDP 12 months later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据他们的假设，债务与 GDP 的比率将从 9 月 30 日的 99.9% 上升到 12 个月后的 102.2%。</p>
</div><h2>Politics Could Worsen Debt, Hit Dollar</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>政治可能加剧债务，打击美元</h2>
</div><p>He also warned that political decisions could accelerate the decline of federal finances, potentially driving up long-term interest rates and weakening the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他还警告称，政治决策可能加速联邦财政的恶化，可能导致长期利率上升和美元贬值。</p>
</div><p>“There is a danger that political choices lead to a faster deterioration in the federal finances,” wrote Kelly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“政治选择可能导致联邦财政更快恶化，这是一种危险，” 凯利写道。</p>
</div><p>As per Kelly, the U.S. government can still issue 30-year debt at a yield of only 4.6%, suggesting there is still capacity for additional borrowing. He also urged investors to consider diversifying their portfolios with alternative assets and international equities amid current allocations and valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据凯利的说法，美国政府仍然可以以仅 4.6% 的收益率发行 30 年期债务，这表明仍有额外借贷的能力。他还敦促投资者考虑在当前配置和估值下，通过替代资产和国际股票来分散投资组合。</p>
</div><h2>US Spending Outpaces Revenue</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美国支出超过收入</h2>
</div><p>Kelly’s warning comes amid growing concerns about the U.S. national debt. <strong>Ray Dalio</strong>, the billionaire investor and founder of <strong>Bridgewater Associates</strong>, had previously predicted a “debt-induced economic heart attack” within three years, likening the U.S. deficit to a lifetime of overeating fatty foods and smoking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凯利的警告是在对美国国债日益担忧的背景下提出的。亿万富翁投资者、<strong>桥水基金</strong> 创始人 <strong>瑞·达里奥</strong> 此前曾预测在三年内将发生 “债务引发的经济心脏病”，并将美国的赤字比作一生中过度摄入脂肪食物和吸烟的结果。</p>
</div><p>In another warning, Dalio described the national debt situation as being at a critical juncture, stating that the nation was now spending 40% more than it was taking in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>达里奥在另一项警告中表示，国家债务情况正处于关键时刻，称该国现在的支出比收入多出 40%。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, President <strong>Donald Trump</strong> had suggested that the U.S. could pay off its $37 trillion debt burden with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). However, calculations based on Treasury data and blockchain supply metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s circulating supply of roughly 19.93 million coins would need to reach a combined value of $37 trillion to offset the U.S. debt load.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，<strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 总统曾建议美国可以用比特币（CRYPTO: BTC）偿还其 37 万亿美元的债务负担。然而，根据财政部数据和区块链供应指标的计算，比特币大约 1993 万枚的流通供应需要达到 37000 亿美元的总价值才能抵消美国的债务负担。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>接下来阅读：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Justin Wolfers Warns Of ‘Two Economies:’ ‘We’re On The Cusp Of A Non-AI Recession’</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>贾斯廷·沃尔弗斯警告 ‘两个经济体：’‘我们正处于非人工智能衰退的边缘’</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image via Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源于 Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

“慢慢破产”：顶级策略师对由政治决策推动的美国债务不断增加发出警告