<p>要点：</p>
<ul>
<li>LVMH 销售回归增长后奢侈品行业股票上涨</li>
<li>LVMH 第三季度销售增长 1%，中国市场改善</li>
<li>LVMH 首席财务官警告第四季度经济逆风依然存在</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：Mimosa Spencer, Mateusz Rabiega 和 Alun John</p>
<p>周三，LVMH 的股票在中国需求改善的迹象下迎来了二十多年来的最佳表现，这也推动了整个行业的反弹，使欧洲奢侈品股票的估值增加了近 800 亿美元。</p>
<p>这家全球顶级奢侈品集团拥有从路易威登手袋到莫埃香槟等多个品牌，在报告了超出预期的第三季度销售后，股价一度上涨 14%，有望创下自 2001 年以来的最大单日涨幅。</p>
<p>其竞争对手，包括爱马仕、开云、瑞士历峰、博柏利和 Moncler，股价上涨了 5% 到 9% 不等，投资者对行业走出两年低迷的希望增强。</p>
<p>DWS 的股票投资组合经理 Stefan Bauknecht 表示：“销售数据确实让投资者感到惊喜，可能会保持该行业股价的上涨势头。”</p>
<p>预计行业整体将有更好的业绩</p>
<p>LVMH 由法国亿万富翁 Bernard Arnault 控制，报告的季度销售增长代表了该公司今年的第一个增长季度，是时尚、酒类和珠宝的风向标。</p>
<p>根据路透社的计算，这一增长推动了 STOXX 欧洲奢侈品 10 指数（.STXLUXP）中公司的市值增加了约 800 亿美元，超过了 2024 年初该行业的最后一次大规模购买潮。</p>
<p>奢侈品行业的股票在最近几周开始获得一些关注，市场预期全面的管理和创意改革将会取得成效。</p>
<p>LVMH 的关键时尚和皮革制品部门，涵盖路易威登和迪奥，占集团利润的三分之二以上，虽然较上季度有所改善，但销售同比仍下降 2%。</p>
<p>该集团表示，中国大陆的销售，作为该行业的传统增长动力，已转为正增长，消费者对新店体验反应良好，例如路易威登在 6 月开设的船形精品店。来自中国游客的销售也有所改善，但同比仍为负增长。</p>
<p>中国消费者对奢侈品的需求受到房地产危机的抑制，加上贸易战和美国市场经济不确定性对整体行业的影响，进一步加剧了行业的低迷。</p>
<p>根据摩根士丹利的估计，中国消费者占全球奢侈品销售的约三分之一，在 2000 年至 2019 年间推动了约 60% 的行业增长。</p>
<p>回归增长让投资者感到安心</p>
<p>第三季度的销售数据令人安心，爱德蒙德·德·罗斯柴尔德的欧洲股票基金经理 Ariane Hayate 表示，指出了路易威登等 “特有” 因素的改善，推动了中国的增长。</p>
<p>去年，亚洲（不包括日本，主要由中国主导）的销售占 LVMH 年营业额的 28%。</p>
<p>然而，LVMH 首席财务官 Cecile Cabanis 在周二警告，经济不确定性和不利的汇率将继续影响其第四季度的业务。</p>
<p>瑞银预计该行业明年的有机销售增长为 4%，预计只有在 2026 年下半年才会加速，新设计师的系列将在第二季度开始进入商店。</p>
<p>（$1 = 0.8602 欧元）</p>

路易威登(ADR)

<p>LVMH 的股价在报告第三季度销售增长 1% 后飙升 14%，这一增长得益于中国需求的改善，标志着今年的第一个增长季度。这一涨幅为欧洲奢侈品股票增加了近 800 亿美元，竞争对手如爱马仕和开云也出现了上涨。尽管销售表现积极，LVMH 的首席财务官仍对第四季度的经济逆风表示谨慎。分析师预计奢侈品行业将继续保持势头，瑞银预测明年有 4% 的有机销售增长，但对影响业绩的不确定性表示谨慎</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Luxury sector shares rise after LVMH sales return to growth</li>
<li>LVMH Q3 sales up 1% with improvement in China</li>
<li>LVMH CFO cautions economic headwinds remain in Q4</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>LVMH 销售回归增长后奢侈品行业股票上涨</li>
<li>LVMH 第三季度销售增长 1%，中国市场改善</li>
<li>LVMH 首席财务官警告第四季度经济逆风依然存在</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Mimosa Spencer, Mateusz Rabiega and Alun John</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Mimosa Spencer, Mateusz Rabiega 和 Alun John</p>
</div><p>LVMH shares  had their best day in over two decades on Wednesday following signs of improved demand in China, which also drove a wider sector rally that added nearly $80 billion to European luxury stocks' valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三，LVMH 的股票在中国需求改善的迹象下迎来了二十多年来的最佳表现，这也推动了整个行业的反弹，使欧洲奢侈品股票的估值增加了近 800 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The world's top luxury group, which owns brands ranging from Louis Vuitton bags to Moet champagne, soared as much as 14% and was on track for its biggest daily gain since 2001, after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter sales, driven by improved demand in China, a day earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家全球顶级奢侈品集团拥有从路易威登手袋到莫埃香槟等多个品牌，在报告了超出预期的第三季度销售后，股价一度上涨 14%，有望创下自 2001 年以来的最大单日涨幅。</p>
</div><p>Its rivals, including Hermes , Kering , Richemont , Burberry  and Moncler , gained between 5% and 9% on investor hopes that the industry is pulling out of its two-year slump.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其竞争对手，包括爱马仕、开云、瑞士历峰、博柏利和 Moncler，股价上涨了 5% 到 9% 不等，投资者对行业走出两年低迷的希望增强。</p>
</div><p>The sales figures &#34;indeed surprised investors positively and are likely to keep the sector's share price momentum alive,&#34; said Stefan Bauknecht, equity portfolio manager at DWS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DWS 的股票投资组合经理 Stefan Bauknecht 表示：“销售数据确实让投资者感到惊喜，可能会保持该行业股价的上涨势头。”</p>
</div><p>BETTER RESULTS EXPECTED SECTOR-WIDE</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计行业整体将有更好的业绩</p>
</div><p>The quarterly sales rise reported by LVMH, controlled by French billionaire Bernard Arnault, represents the first quarter of growth this year for the company, a bellwether spanning fashion, alcohol and jewellery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LVMH 由法国亿万富翁 Bernard Arnault 控制，报告的季度销售增长代表了该公司今年的第一个增长季度，是时尚、酒类和珠宝的风向标。</p>
</div><p>It helped spur a rally that added around $80 billion to the market capitalisation of firms in the STOXX Europe Luxury 10 index (.STXLUXP), according to Reuters calculations, outpacing the last big buying spree for the sector in early 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据路透社的计算，这一增长推动了 STOXX 欧洲奢侈品 10 指数（.STXLUXP）中公司的市值增加了约 800 亿美元，超过了 2024 年初该行业的最后一次大规模购买潮。</p>
</div><p>Luxury sector shares had begun getting some traction in recent weeks, with expectations that sweeping management and creative overhauls will bear fruit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奢侈品行业的股票在最近几周开始获得一些关注，市场预期全面的管理和创意改革将会取得成效。</p>
</div><p>LVMH's key fashion and leather goods division, home to Louis Vuitton and Dior, which accounts for over two-thirds of the group's profit, improved from the previous quarter but sales continued to decline, down 2%, year-on-year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LVMH 的关键时尚和皮革制品部门，涵盖路易威登和迪奥，占集团利润的三分之二以上，虽然较上季度有所改善，但销售同比仍下降 2%。</p>
</div><p>The group said that sales in mainland China, a traditional growth driver for the sector, turned positive, and that shoppers were responding well to new store experiences, such as Louis Vuitton's ship-shaped boutique in Shanghai that opened in June. Sales from travelling Chinese also improved, but remained negative year-on-year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该集团表示，中国大陆的销售，作为该行业的传统增长动力，已转为正增长，消费者对新店体验反应良好，例如路易威登在 6 月开设的船形精品店。来自中国游客的销售也有所改善，但同比仍为负增长。</p>
</div><p>Chinese appetite for luxury goods has been dampened by a property crisis, compounding overall gloom in the sector, which has also been buffeted by the impact of the trade war and economic uncertainty in its other key market, the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国消费者对奢侈品的需求受到房地产危机的抑制，加上贸易战和美国市场经济不确定性对整体行业的影响，进一步加剧了行业的低迷。</p>
</div><p>Chinese nationals, who account for around a third of luxury sales globally, drove about 60% of the industry growth between 2000 and 2019, according to estimates from Morgan Stanley.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据摩根士丹利的估计，中国消费者占全球奢侈品销售的约三分之一，在 2000 年至 2019 年间推动了约 60% 的行业增长。</p>
</div><p>RETURN TO GROWTH REASSURES INVESTORS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回归增长让投资者感到安心</p>
</div><p>Third-quarter sales were reassuring, said Ariane Hayate, European equity fund manager at Edmond de Rothschild, citing improvements from &#34;idiosyncratic&#34; elements, such as Louis Vuitton's initiatives driving growth in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三季度的销售数据令人安心，爱德蒙德·德·罗斯柴尔德的欧洲股票基金经理 Ariane Hayate 表示，指出了路易威登等 “特有” 因素的改善，推动了中国的增长。</p>
</div><p>Sales in Asia, excluding Japan and dominated by China, accounted for 28% of LVMH's annual turnover last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，亚洲（不包括日本，主要由中国主导）的销售占 LVMH 年营业额的 28%。</p>
</div><p>However, LVMH Chief Financial Officer Cecile Cabanis warned on Tuesday economic uncertainty and unfavourable exchange rates would continue to affect its business in the fourth quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，LVMH 首席财务官 Cecile Cabanis 在周二警告，经济不确定性和不利的汇率将继续影响其第四季度的业务。</p>
</div><p>UBS, which forecasts 4% organic sales growth next year for the sector, expects an acceleration only in the second half of 2026, with collections from new designers entering stores starting in the second quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银预计该行业明年的有机销售增长为 4%，预计只有在 2026 年下半年才会加速，新设计师的系列将在第二季度开始进入商店。</p>
</div><p>($1 = 0.8602 euros)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（$1 = 0.8602 欧元）</p>
</div>

随着中国前景的改善，路易威登 (ADR) 推动了 800 亿美元的奢侈品市场反弹