<p><strong>英伟达</strong> 目前是全球市值最大的公司，市值达到 4.5 万亿美元。考虑到英伟达在全球人工智能（AI）半导体领域的主导地位，以及未来数十亿美元将用于建设 AI 数据中心基础设施，华尔街对其有潜力实现 10 万亿美元市值的讨论并不令人惊讶。</p>
<p>看到英伟达确实达到这个目标并不令人意外，这得益于其稳固的护城河以及预计在未来五年内将投资的 5.2 万亿美元用于 AI 数据中心。然而，投资者也应考虑到英伟达可能面临的来自 <strong>博通</strong>、<strong>AMD</strong> 等竞争对手在 AI 芯片市场上日益激烈的竞争，这可能会对公司实现 10 万亿美元市值的目标构成挑战。</p>
<p>此外，还有另一家公司目前远小于英伟达，但显示出在芯片巨头之前突破 10 万亿美元大关的迹象。让我们仔细看看这个名字。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1Njcvb3JhY2xlX2xvZ29fb25fYnVpbGRpbmdfb3JjbC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1Njcvb3JhY2xlX2xvZ29fb25fYnVpbGRpbmdfb3JjbC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>这家云基础设施巨头有潜力超越英伟达</h2>
<p><strong>甲骨文</strong>（ORCL 1.45%）的股票在 2025 年的股市表现良好，截至目前上涨了 76%。这远高于英伟达今年迄今为止的 36% 的涨幅。甲骨文的强劲反弹使其市值达到了 8350 亿美元，成为全球第 12 大公司。</p>
<p>你可能会想知道甲骨文如何能够在向 10 万亿美元的目标上超越英伟达。但仔细观察甲骨文的商业模式、它在 AI 普及中所扮演的角色，以及它构建收入管道的速度，将清楚地表明它确实有能力实现这一目标。</p>
<p>甲骨文的全球数据中心基础设施被主要云计算公司、政府和 AI 公司用于运行 AI 工作负载。事实上，该公司在云基础设施领域的业务需求超过了其能够满足的能力。这导致其剩余履约义务（RPO）大幅增加，RPO 指的是公司在某一时期结束时尚未履行的合同的总价值。</p>
<p>例如，甲骨文在 2026 财年第一季度（截至 8 月 31 日）的整体收入同比增长了 12%。与此同时，由于 “与三家不同客户签订的四份数十亿美元合同”，其 RPO 同比激增了 359%，达到了 4550 亿美元。管理层在 9 月份表示，甲骨文正处于签约 “几家额外数十亿美元客户的轨道上，RPO 可能在接下来的几个月内超过 5000 亿美元”。</p>
<p>好消息是，甲骨文的下一个大合同很快就来了。它在财年第一季度财报发布后的第二天宣布与 OpenAI 签署了一份价值高达 3000 亿美元的五年合同。该合同将于 2027 年生效，这笔交易的规模表明，甲骨文的 RPO 可能已经远超 7500 亿美元。</p>
<p>再加上甲骨文管理层在上个季度提到的其他数十亿美元的交易，看到其 RPO 接近 1 万亿美元并不令人惊讶。该公司还提供多云数据库服务，允许客户在谷歌、<strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 的云服务上运行甲骨文的数据库产品。</p>
<p>该公司多云解决方案的需求正在以惊人的速度增长。甲骨文报告称，其多云数据库收入在财年第一季度激增了 1529%。毫不奇怪，该公司预计这一领域将实现显著增长，并计划将其多云数据中心的数量从 34 个增加到 71 个。</p>
<p>此外，预计到 2034 年，专注于 AI 的云计算市场的收入将达到 3.7 万亿美元，而整体云计算市场的收入可能达到 5.1 万亿美元。因此，甲骨文可以继续建立一个出色的长期收入管道，这将大大推动其长期增长。</p>
<h2>甲骨文如何实现 10 万亿美元估值</h2>
<p>尽管甲骨文在上一个财季的增长并不算太好，但公司不断膨胀的收入管道解释了为什么其增长预计将加速。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e9afb0456788676f68e67fcdd2bb8af9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e9afb0456788676f68e67fcdd2bb8af9.png"/></p>
<p>ORCL 当前财年收入估计数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>但值得注意的是，甲骨文的 RPO 远远大于公司预计在接下来的三个财年内产生的总收入。考虑到公司预计将获得新合同，这可能进一步增加其积压，因此不要惊讶于看到其收入增长在接下来的三个财年内加速。</p>
<p>另一方面，英伟达的收入增长预计将放缓。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4e78a1533e1e295b042bd430eeb353f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4e78a1533e1e295b042bd430eeb353f.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 当前财年收入估计数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>如果我们假设甲骨文的收入在 2028 财年之后的五年内以每年 40% 的速度增长，其收入可能在 2033 年达到 6450 亿美元（以 2028 财年的 1200 亿美元收入为基数）。考虑到云计算市场在 2034 年可能达到的 5.1 万亿美元年收入，这似乎是相当可能的。</p>
<p>该股票目前的交易价格为销售额的 14 倍，但考虑到未来增长潜力的加速，它可能会以更高的溢价交易。销售额比率达到 16 将足以使公司实现 10 万亿美元的市值。另一方面，考虑到预计增长放缓，英伟达的估值可能会下降，这表明甲骨文确实可能成为第一家实现这一里程碑的公司。</p>

甲骨文

<p>Oracle 正在成为一个强有力的竞争者，可能会达到 10 万亿美元的市值，甚至超过 Nvidia。目前，Oracle 的市值为 8350 亿美元，其股票在 2025 年上涨了 76%，这得益于其剩余履约义务（RPO）的显著增加，年同比激增 359% 达到 4550 亿美元。该公司与 OpenAI 签署了一项 3000 亿美元的协议，并正在扩展其多云数据库服务，这表明其在人工智能和云计算市场的强劲增长潜力。Oracle 的战略定位以及对其服务日益增长的需求可能会推动其朝着 10 万亿美元的估值迈进</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong> is currently the largest company in the world with a market cap of $4.5 trillion. Given Nvidia's dominance in the global artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor space and the billions of dollars that are going to be spent on building out AI data center infrastructure in the long run, it is easy to see why there are murmurs on Wall Street that it has the potential to achieve a $10 trillion market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong> 目前是全球市值最大的公司，市值达到 4.5 万亿美元。考虑到英伟达在全球人工智能（AI）半导体领域的主导地位，以及未来数十亿美元将用于建设 AI 数据中心基础设施，华尔街对其有潜力实现 10 万亿美元市值的讨论并不令人惊讶。</p>
</div><p>It won't be surprising to see Nvidia indeed reaching that mark thanks to its solid moat and the $5.2 trillion that's expected to be invested in AI data centers over the next five years. However, investors should also account for the rising competition that Nvidia is likely to face from competitors such as <strong>Broadcom</strong>, <strong>AMD</strong>, and others in the AI chip market, which could pose challenges in the company's quest to achieve a $10 trillion market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看到英伟达确实达到这个目标并不令人意外，这得益于其稳固的护城河以及预计在未来五年内将投资的 5.2 万亿美元用于 AI 数据中心。然而，投资者也应考虑到英伟达可能面临的来自 <strong>博通</strong>、<strong>AMD</strong> 等竞争对手在 AI 芯片市场上日益激烈的竞争，这可能会对公司实现 10 万亿美元市值的目标构成挑战。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, there's another company that's currently way smaller than Nvidia but is showing signs of breaching the $10 trillion mark before the chip giant. Let's take a closer look at that name.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，还有另一家公司目前远小于英伟达，但显示出在芯片巨头之前突破 10 万亿美元大关的迹象。让我们仔细看看这个名字。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1Njcvb3JhY2xlX2xvZ29fb25fYnVpbGRpbmdfb3JjbC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F836567%2Foracle_logo_on_building_orcl.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>This cloud infrastructure giant has the potential to overtake Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这家云基础设施巨头有潜力超越英伟达</h2>
</div><p><strong>Oracle</strong>(ORCL 1.45%) stock has been in fine form on the stock market in 2025, rising 76% as of this writing. That's well above the 36% gains that Nvidia has registered so far this year. Oracle's impressive rally has brought its market cap to $835 billion, making it the 12th largest company in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>甲骨文</strong>（ORCL 1.45%）的股票在 2025 年的股市表现良好，截至目前上涨了 76%。这远高于英伟达今年迄今为止的 36% 的涨幅。甲骨文的强劲反弹使其市值达到了 8350 亿美元，成为全球第 12 大公司。</p>
</div><p>You may be wondering how Oracle is in a position to race ahead of Nvidia toward the $10 trillion mark. But a closer look at Oracle's business model, the role it is playing in the proliferation of AI, and the pace at which it is building its revenue pipeline will make it clear why it is indeed capable of achieving that feat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能会想知道甲骨文如何能够在向 10 万亿美元的目标上超越英伟达。但仔细观察甲骨文的商业模式、它在 AI 普及中所扮演的角色，以及它构建收入管道的速度，将清楚地表明它确实有能力实现这一目标。</p>
</div><p>Oracle's global data center infrastructure is being used by major cloud computing companies, governments, and AI companies for running AI workloads. In fact, the company has been receiving more business in the cloud infrastructure segment than it can fulfill. This has led to a massive increase in its remaining performance obligations (RPO), which refers to the total value of the company's contracts that are yet to be fulfilled at the end of a period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文的全球数据中心基础设施被主要云计算公司、政府和 AI 公司用于运行 AI 工作负载。事实上，该公司在云基础设施领域的业务需求超过了其能够满足的能力。这导致其剩余履约义务（RPO）大幅增加，RPO 指的是公司在某一时期结束时尚未履行的合同的总价值。</p>
</div><p>For instance, Oracle's overall revenue grew by 12% year over year in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (which ended on Aug. 31). Meanwhile, its RPO shot up by a whopping 359% year over year to $455 billion thanks to &#34;four multi-billion-dollar contracts with three different customers.&#34; Management remarked in September that Oracle is on track to sign up &#34;several additional multi-billion-dollar customers and RPO is likely to exceed half-a-trillion dollars&#34; in the next few months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，甲骨文在 2026 财年第一季度（截至 8 月 31 日）的整体收入同比增长了 12%。与此同时，由于 “与三家不同客户签订的四份数十亿美元合同”，其 RPO 同比激增了 359%，达到了 4550 亿美元。管理层在 9 月份表示，甲骨文正处于签约 “几家额外数十亿美元客户的轨道上，RPO 可能在接下来的几个月内超过 5000 亿美元”。</p>
</div><p>The good part is that it didn't take long for Oracle's next big contract to arrive. It revealed a five-year deal with OpenAI worth a whopping $300 billion on the day following its fiscal Q1 earnings report. The contract goes into force from 2027, and the size of this deal suggests that Oracle's RPO is probably well above a massive $750 billion right now, at least.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，甲骨文的下一个大合同很快就来了。它在财年第一季度财报发布后的第二天宣布与 OpenAI 签署了一份价值高达 3000 亿美元的五年合同。该合同将于 2027 年生效，这笔交易的规模表明，甲骨文的 RPO 可能已经远超 7500 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Throw in the other multibillion-dollar deals in the pipeline that Oracle management talked about last quarter, and it won't be surprising to see its RPO approaching the $1 trillion mark. The company also offers multicloud database services that allow its customers to run Oracle's database offerings on Google's, <strong>Microsoft</strong>'s, and <strong>Amazon</strong>'s cloud services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再加上甲骨文管理层在上个季度提到的其他数十亿美元的交易，看到其 RPO 接近 1 万亿美元并不令人惊讶。该公司还提供多云数据库服务，允许客户在谷歌、<strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 的云服务上运行甲骨文的数据库产品。</p>
</div><p>The demand for the company's multicloud solutions is growing at an incredible pace. Oracle reports that its multicloud database revenue shot up a remarkable 1,529% in the fiscal first quarter. Not surprisingly, the company is expecting substantial growth in this segment and plans to take its multicloud data center count to 71 from 34.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司多云解决方案的需求正在以惊人的速度增长。甲骨文报告称，其多云数据库收入在财年第一季度激增了 1529%。毫不奇怪，该公司预计这一领域将实现显著增长，并计划将其多云数据中心的数量从 34 个增加到 71 个。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, the AI-focused cloud computing market is expected to hit $3.7 trillion in revenue in 2034, when the overall cloud computing market could hit $5.1 trillion in revenue. Oracle, therefore, can continue to build a terrific long-term revenue pipeline that's going to supercharge its growth for a long time to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，预计到 2034 年，专注于 AI 的云计算市场的收入将达到 3.7 万亿美元，而整体云计算市场的收入可能达到 5.1 万亿美元。因此，甲骨文可以继续建立一个出色的长期收入管道，这将大大推动其长期增长。</p>
</div><h2>Here's how Oracle can achieve a $10 trillion valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>甲骨文如何实现 10 万亿美元估值</h2>
</div><p>Though Oracle's growth wasn't all that great in the previous fiscal quarter, the company's ballooning revenue pipeline explains why its growth is expected to step on the gas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管甲骨文在上一个财季的增长并不算太好，但公司不断膨胀的收入管道解释了为什么其增长预计将加速。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e9afb0456788676f68e67fcdd2bb8af9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e9afb0456788676f68e67fcdd2bb8af9.png"/></p>
<p>ORCL Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ORCL 当前财年收入估计数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>But what's worth noting is that Oracle's RPO is substantially greater than the combined revenue that the company is expected to generate in the next three fiscal years. Given that the company expects to land new contracts that could further inflate its backlog, don't be surprised to see its revenue growth accelerating beyond the next three fiscal years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但值得注意的是，甲骨文的 RPO 远远大于公司预计在接下来的三个财年内产生的总收入。考虑到公司预计将获得新合同，这可能进一步增加其积压，因此不要惊讶于看到其收入增长在接下来的三个财年内加速。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's revenue growth, on the other hand, is expected to taper off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，英伟达的收入增长预计将放缓。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4e78a1533e1e295b042bd430eeb353f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4e78a1533e1e295b042bd430eeb353f.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 当前财年收入估计数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>If we assume that Oracle's top line increases at an annual rate of 40% in the five-year period following fiscal 2028, its revenue could hit $645 billion in 2033 (using fiscal 2028 revenue of $120 billion as the base). That seems quite possible considering the $5.1 trillion annual revenue that the cloud computing market could hit in 2034, as we saw earlier in the article.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果我们假设甲骨文的收入在 2028 财年之后的五年内以每年 40% 的速度增长，其收入可能在 2033 年达到 6450 亿美元（以 2028 财年的 1200 亿美元收入为基数）。考虑到云计算市场在 2034 年可能达到的 5.1 万亿美元年收入，这似乎是相当可能的。</p>
</div><p>The stock is currently trading at 14 times sales, but it could trade at a bigger premium in the future given the potential acceleration in growth. A price-to-sales ratio of 16 will be enough for the company to hit a $10 trillion market cap. Nvidia, on the other hand, may witness a drop in its valuation considering the forecast slowdown in its growth, indicating that Oracle could indeed become the first company to achieve that milestone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股票目前的交易价格为销售额的 14 倍，但考虑到未来增长潜力的加速，它可能会以更高的溢价交易。销售额比率达到 16 将足以使公司实现 10 万亿美元的市值。另一方面，考虑到预计增长放缓，英伟达的估值可能会下降，这表明甲骨文确实可能成为第一家实现这一里程碑的公司。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Hypergrowth Stock Will Be the First $10 Trillion Stock (Hint: It's Not Nvidia)

- Nvidia 市值达 4.5 万亿美元，可能在未来达到 10 万亿美元。  
- Oracle 市值为 8350 亿美元，预计将通过多项大合同加速增长。  
- Oracle 的 RPO 增长 359%，显示出强劲的收入潜力。  

预测：这只超高速增长的股票将成为第一个市值达到 10 万亿美元的股票（提示：它不是 Nvidia）