<p><strong>Joby Aviation</strong>（JOBY -2.82%）已成为电动航空领域最受关注的公司之一。该公司旨在使空中出租车成为日常使用的现实——在拥挤的城市中提供快速、安静和零排放的飞行服务。</p>
<p>这个故事非常大胆。得到 <strong>丰田汽车</strong>、ANA 控股和与 Blade Air Mobility 的待签协议的支持，Joby 看起来在电动垂直起降（eVTOL）竞赛中处于领先地位。其监管进展和国际合作伙伴关系也使得该股票成为早期投资者热议的话题。</p>
<p>但兴奋并不等于可投资性。Joby 的长期愿景令人信服，但前方的道路仍然充满重大风险。在购买该股票之前，投资者应注意三个可能影响其未来表现的关键警示信号。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc1MTAvZmx5aW5nLXRheGktMS0xLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc1MTAvZmx5aW5nLXRheGktMS0xLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>1. 商业收入有限</h2>
<p>尽管经过多年的工程进展和日益增长的全球合作伙伴关系，Joby 仍然是一家尚未产生收入的公司。虽然它在 2025 年上半年产生了 15,000 美元的收入，但与其支出相比，这个数字并不显著。管理层预计商业服务将在 2026 年开始，但目前它每花费一美元都必须来自其现金储备。</p>
<p>为了更好地理解这一点，在 2025 年第二季度，Joby 报告了 1.68 亿美元的运营亏损和 1.32 亿美元的调整后 EBITDA 亏损。其六个月的现金消耗约为 2.45 亿美元（运营现金流出加上资本支出），即每年大约 5 亿美元。该公司在季度末拥有 9.91 亿美元的现金和短期投资——足以在当前支出水平下维持运营约两年。</p>
<p>这是一段良好的两年时间，但不足以实现盈利。Joby 可能需要额外的资金，无论是通过股权还是债务，才能在产生显著收入之前。任何新的融资都可能稀释现有股东的股份或增加其资产负债表的杠杆。</p>
<p>换句话说，投资者应将 Joby 视为今天的样子：一家仍处于开发阶段的公司，尚未成为一家完全运作的企业。</p>
<h2>2. 认证和执行风险仍然很高</h2>
<p>Joby 的未来现在取决于一个关键里程碑：FAA 认证。没有它，该公司无法飞行乘客或交付飞机。好消息是 Joby 在这一领域处于领先地位。它现在已经完成 FAA 类型认证过程的第 4 阶段的一半以上。其首架 “符合标准” 的飞机——生产标准版本——已经进入最终组装阶段，公司预计与 FAA 的飞行测试将在 2026 年开始。</p>
<p>这一进展使 Joby 具有明显的优势，但 eVTOL 飞机的认证仍然是未知领域。FAA 从未批准过这种设计。即使是小的技术问题或新的安全要求也可能延迟这一过程，将商业飞行推向更远的未来。</p>
<p>而认证仅仅是开始。在保持严格安全标准的同时生产数百架飞机将考验 Joby 的运营能力。航空航天项目在规模扩大阶段经常会遇到成本超支和供应链挑战。丰田的参与增加了经验，但制造的复杂性仍然可能打乱时间表。</p>
<p>如果 Joby 未能达到其目标，投资者的乐观情绪可能会迅速消退。</p>
<h2>3. 通往盈利的道路漫长</h2>
<p>即使在获得认证后，Joby 在将其概念转变为可持续业务方面仍面临重大挑战。该公司的模式依赖于拥有和运营自己的空中出租车网络——这是一种资本密集型战略，需要飞机生产、飞行员培训、维护和垂直起降点的接入。在一名乘客起飞之前，每一项都增加了成本。</p>
<p>Joby 计划收购 Blade Air Mobility 的乘客业务应能加快其市场进入。该交易使 Joby 能够接入纽约和欧洲的航站楼、客户和现有航线。但这也增加了短期支出和运营复杂性，尤其是在 Joby 整合新系统和员工时。</p>
<p>与此同时，竞争正在加剧。<strong>Archer Aviation</strong> 和其他初创公司正瞄准类似的启动时间表和客户。如果多家 eVTOL 公司在 2026 年左右同时推出，早期的定价能力可能会受到限制，从而延长 Joby 实现盈亏平衡的时间。</p>
<p>该公司的未来成功取决于在保持安全性和可靠性的同时高效扩展。这并非易事，即使有强大的合作伙伴和资金支持。</p>
<h2>这对投资者意味着什么</h2>
<p>Joby Aviation 在监管进展、合作伙伴关系和制造准备方面领先于 eVTOL 领域。它比大多数同行更接近商业化，这为其提供了真正的先发优势。然而，投资者不应将技术进步误认为财务稳定。Joby 仍然处于未产生收入的状态，每年消耗数亿美元，并面临监管和执行风险。</p>
<p>这项技术前景可期——但该股票仍然具有投机性。对于长期投资者来说，Joby 最终可能会成为城市空中出行的领导者。在那之前，值得将其列入观察名单，等待这一大胆愿景能否转变为可行的商业模式的证据。</p>

JOBY

<p>Joby Aviation，作为电动航空领域的关键参与者，尽管对空中出租车的愿景充满希望，但仍面临重大风险。该公司仍处于无收入阶段，现金消耗严重，并依赖未来的融资。获得 FAA 的认证至关重要，但仍不确定，通往盈利的道路漫长而复杂，尤其是在竞争日益激烈的情况下。虽然 Joby 拥有先发优势，但投资者应保持谨慎，因为该股票具有投机性，并依赖于其雄心勃勃计划的成功执行</p>

<p><strong>Joby Aviation</strong>(JOBY -2.82%) has become one of the most closely watched names in electric aviation. The company aims to make air taxis a reality for everyday use -- offering fast, quiet, and zero-emission flights across congested cities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Joby Aviation</strong>（JOBY -2.82%）已成为电动航空领域最受关注的公司之一。该公司旨在使空中出租车成为日常使用的现实——在拥挤的城市中提供快速、安静和零排放的飞行服务。</p>
</div><p>The story is bold. Backed by <strong>Toyota Motor,</strong> ANA Holdings, and a pending deal with Blade Air Mobility, Joby looks well-positioned to lead the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) race. Its regulatory progress and international partnerships have also made the stock a popular talking point among early investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个故事非常大胆。得到 <strong>丰田汽车</strong>、ANA 控股和与 Blade Air Mobility 的待签协议的支持，Joby 看起来在电动垂直起降（eVTOL）竞赛中处于领先地位。其监管进展和国际合作伙伴关系也使得该股票成为早期投资者热议的话题。</p>
</div><p>But excitement doesn't equal investability. Joby's long-term vision is compelling, yet the road ahead still carries significant risks. Before purchasing the stock, investors should be aware of three key red flags that could impact its future performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但兴奋并不等于可投资性。Joby 的长期愿景令人信服，但前方的道路仍然充满重大风险。在购买该股票之前，投资者应注意三个可能影响其未来表现的关键警示信号。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc1MTAvZmx5aW5nLXRheGktMS0xLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837510%2Fflying-taxi-1-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>1. Limited commercial revenue</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 商业收入有限</h2>
</div><p>Despite years of engineering progress and growing global partnerships, Joby remains a pre-revenue company. While it generated $15,000 in revenue in the first half of 2025, that amount isn't significant compared to its expenses. Management expects commercial service to begin in 2026, but for now, every dollar it spends must come from its cash reserves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管经过多年的工程进展和日益增长的全球合作伙伴关系，Joby 仍然是一家尚未产生收入的公司。虽然它在 2025 年上半年产生了 15,000 美元的收入，但与其支出相比，这个数字并不显著。管理层预计商业服务将在 2026 年开始，但目前它每花费一美元都必须来自其现金储备。</p>
</div><p>To put that into perspective, in the second quarter of 2025, Joby posted an operating loss of $168 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $132 million. Its six-month cash burn was approximately $245 million (operating cash outflow plus capital expenditures), or roughly $500 million annually. The company ended the quarter with $991 million in cash and short-term investments -- sufficient to fund operations for approximately two years at current spending levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了更好地理解这一点，在 2025 年第二季度，Joby 报告了 1.68 亿美元的运营亏损和 1.32 亿美元的调整后 EBITDA 亏损。其六个月的现金消耗约为 2.45 亿美元（运营现金流出加上资本支出），即每年大约 5 亿美元。该公司在季度末拥有 9.91 亿美元的现金和短期投资——足以在当前支出水平下维持运营约两年。</p>
</div><p>That's a good two years of runway, but not enough to reach profitability. Joby will likely require additional funding, whether through equity or debt, before it generates significant revenue. Any new financing could dilute existing shareholders or add leverage to its balance sheet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一段良好的两年时间，但不足以实现盈利。Joby 可能需要额外的资金，无论是通过股权还是债务，才能在产生显著收入之前。任何新的融资都可能稀释现有股东的股份或增加其资产负债表的杠杆。</p>
</div><p>In other words, investors should view Joby for what it is today: a company still in its development phase, not yet a fully functioning business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，投资者应将 Joby 视为今天的样子：一家仍处于开发阶段的公司，尚未成为一家完全运作的企业。</p>
</div><h2>2. Certification and execution risk remain high</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 认证和执行风险仍然很高</h2>
</div><p>Joby's future hinges now on a key milestone: FAA certification. Without it, the company can't fly passengers or deliver aircraft. The good news is that Joby leads the pack. It's now more than halfway through Stage 4 of the FAA's type certification process. Its first &#34;conforming&#34; aircraft -- the production-standard version -- is already in final assembly, and the company expects flight testing with the FAA to begin in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Joby 的未来现在取决于一个关键里程碑：FAA 认证。没有它，该公司无法飞行乘客或交付飞机。好消息是 Joby 在这一领域处于领先地位。它现在已经完成 FAA 类型认证过程的第 4 阶段的一半以上。其首架 “符合标准” 的飞机——生产标准版本——已经进入最终组装阶段，公司预计与 FAA 的飞行测试将在 2026 年开始。</p>
</div><p>That progress gives Joby a clear edge, but certification for eVTOL aircraft remains uncharted territory. The FAA has never approved a design of this kind before. Even minor technical questions or new safety requirements could delay the process, pushing commercial flights further into the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一进展使 Joby 具有明显的优势，但 eVTOL 飞机的认证仍然是未知领域。FAA 从未批准过这种设计。即使是小的技术问题或新的安全要求也可能延迟这一过程，将商业飞行推向更远的未来。</p>
</div><p>And certification is only the beginning. Producing hundreds of aircraft while maintaining tight safety standards will test Joby's operations. Aerospace programs frequently encounter cost overruns and supply chain challenges during the scale-up phase. Toyota's involvement adds experience, but manufacturing complexity can still derail timelines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而认证仅仅是开始。在保持严格安全标准的同时生产数百架飞机将考验 Joby 的运营能力。航空航天项目在规模扩大阶段经常会遇到成本超支和供应链挑战。丰田的参与增加了经验，但制造的复杂性仍然可能打乱时间表。</p>
</div><p>If Joby misses its targets, investor optimism could fade quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 Joby 未能达到其目标，投资者的乐观情绪可能会迅速消退。</p>
</div><h2>3. The path to profitability is long</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 通往盈利的道路漫长</h2>
</div><p>Even after certification, Joby faces a significant challenge in turning its concept into a sustainable business. The company's model depends on owning and operating its own air taxi network -- a capital-intensive strategy that requires aircraft production, pilot training, maintenance, and vertiport access. Each of these adds costs before a single passenger takes off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在获得认证后，Joby 在将其概念转变为可持续业务方面仍面临重大挑战。该公司的模式依赖于拥有和运营自己的空中出租车网络——这是一种资本密集型战略，需要飞机生产、飞行员培训、维护和垂直起降点的接入。在一名乘客起飞之前，每一项都增加了成本。</p>
</div><p>Joby's planned acquisition of Blade Air Mobility's passenger business should speed up its market entry. The deal gives Joby access to terminals, customers, and existing routes in New York and Europe. But it also adds short-term expenses and operational complexity, especially as Joby integrates new systems and staff.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Joby 计划收购 Blade Air Mobility 的乘客业务应能加快其市场进入。该交易使 Joby 能够接入纽约和欧洲的航站楼、客户和现有航线。但这也增加了短期支出和运营复杂性，尤其是在 Joby 整合新系统和员工时。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, competition is intensifying. <strong>Archer Aviation</strong> and other start-ups are targeting similar launch timelines and customers. If multiple eVTOL companies debut around 2026, early pricing power could be limited, stretching the time it takes for Joby to reach breakeven.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，竞争正在加剧。<strong>Archer Aviation</strong> 和其他初创公司正瞄准类似的启动时间表和客户。如果多家 eVTOL 公司在 2026 年左右同时推出，早期的定价能力可能会受到限制，从而延长 Joby 实现盈亏平衡的时间。</p>
</div><p>The company's future success depends on scaling efficiently while maintaining safety and reliability. That's no small feat, even with strong partners and funding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司的未来成功取决于在保持安全性和可靠性的同时高效扩展。这并非易事，即使有强大的合作伙伴和资金支持。</p>
</div><h2>What is means for investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对投资者意味着什么</h2>
</div><p>Joby Aviation leads the eVTOL field in regulatory progress, partnerships, and manufacturing readiness. It's closer to commercialization than most peers, and that gives it a legitimate first-mover advantage. Still, investors shouldn't mistake technological progress for financial stability. Joby remains pre-revenue, burns hundreds of millions of dollars per year, and faces both regulatory and execution risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Joby Aviation 在监管进展、合作伙伴关系和制造准备方面领先于 eVTOL 领域。它比大多数同行更接近商业化，这为其提供了真正的先发优势。然而，投资者不应将技术进步误认为财务稳定。Joby 仍然处于未产生收入的状态，每年消耗数亿美元，并面临监管和执行风险。</p>
</div><p>The technology is promising -- but the stock remains speculative. For long-term investors, Joby could eventually emerge as a leader in urban air mobility. Until then, it's worth keeping on your watch list while waiting for evidence that this bold vision can turn into a viable business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这项技术前景可期——但该股票仍然具有投机性。对于长期投资者来说，Joby 最终可能会成为城市空中出行的领导者。在那之前，值得将其列入观察名单，等待这一大胆愿景能否转变为可行的商业模式的证据。</p>
</div>

考虑购买 Joby Aviation 的股票？在此之前，请先注意以下三个警示信号