<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.64%) 无疑为其长期股东提供了改变生活的回报。公司的创新能力和强大的品牌是其业绩背后的关键因素。</p>
<p>但这场盛宴是否结束了？苹果今年遇到了一些阻力，特别是与关税和特朗普总统的贸易战有关。股票受到了影响，考虑到其市值为 3.5 万亿美元，一些人认为这家 iPhone 制造商未来的上涨空间有限。</p>
<p>然而，查看一些先例以及苹果自身的业务，可以帮助我们更清晰地了解情况。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc1MjkvcGVyc29uLXVzaW5nLWEtc21hcnRwaG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc1MjkvcGVyc29uLXVzaW5nLWEtc21hcnRwaG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>苹果曾经克服过这些困难</h2>
<p>无论是由于关税的潜在影响还是 iPhone 增长放缓，苹果之前都曾见证并克服过此类障碍。</p>
<p>在特朗普第一次担任总统期间，关税的威胁也曾存在，尽管可能没有现在这么严重。2019 年 1 月 3 日，苹果因中国 iPhone 销量疲软而下调指引，股票下跌约 10%，部分原因是特朗普的贸易战。2019 年 8 月 5 日，特朗普宣布对中国进口商品征收关税后，苹果股价下跌了 5%。</p>
<p>在这两种情况下，苹果都能够迅速反弹。股票在这两次重大的一日市场损失后超越了市场。那时，苹果通过与政府谈判，能够在一定程度上规避关税，避免或至少推迟对其进口商品的惩罚性关税。</p>
<p>关于中国 iPhone 销量放缓，公司采取了多管齐下的策略，包括略微降价。结果是：苹果成功应对了这些障碍，财务业绩依然强劲，并且在随后的几年中如往常一样超越了市场。</p>
<h2>未来在于订阅业务</h2>
<p>在将过去应用于未来时，通常需要注意一些警告，尤其是这里存在一些重要的差异。例如，特朗普的关税这次更加激进。而且投资者也担心这家科技巨头在人工智能（AI）竞赛中落后。</p>
<p>尽管如此，关于苹果如何应对以往困境的一个重要观点是，该公司具有高度的适应性。它宣布将在未来四年内进行 6000 亿美元的本地制造投资，以重新赢得特朗普的青睐。</p>
<p>此外，公司还希望增加对人工智能的投资并吸引该领域的人才。苹果接近收购 PromptAI，这是一家人工智能初创公司，其旗舰应用通过智能活动检测功能增强家庭安全摄像头的能力。PromptAI 在该领域拥有显著的人物，包括其创始人 Tete Xiao，他在该领域拥有博士学位并有学术发表。</p>
<p>即使这笔收购未能达成，苹果在过去 12 个月内产生了 962 亿美元的自由现金流，并有能力收购更多的人工智能人才。</p>
<p>该公司通常不会急于推出新产品或功能。苹果的优势在于其能够对现有技术进行创新性调整并赢得消费者的青睐，这一点它已经多次成功实现。随着超过 20 亿活跃设备的庞大且不断增长的用户基础，公司只需几次成功就能对其财务业绩产生重大影响。此外，苹果的未来在于其服务部门。</p>
<p>该公司拥有超过 10 亿个付费订阅。推出新服务，无论是否与人工智能相关，都应使公司能够增加这一可预测的高利润率的经常性收入来源。从长远来看，这将减少苹果对关税甚至硬件销售的依赖。剩下的将是一个庞大的用户基础，为客户的日常活动提供广泛的订阅基础，从新闻和电视到健康和支付。</p>
<p>这里的机会巨大，使得尽管面临阻力，苹果的前景依然吸引人。历史告诉我们，这家公司能够克服这些困难。苹果今天所做的举措表明，它有很大的机会能够克服这些挑战。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果今年面临了一些挑战，包括关税和贸易战，这引发了人们对其增长的担忧。尽管过去曾因 iPhone 销量疲软而导致股价下跌，苹果历史上一直能够反弹。该公司正在通过投资本地制造和人工智能来适应，并计划收购人工智能初创公司 PromptAI。苹果拥有超过十亿的付费订阅和强劲的现金流，旨在增强其服务部门，减少对硬件销售的依赖。总体而言，历史上的韧性和战略举措表明，苹果未来的前景乐观</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.64%) has undeniably provided life-changing returns to its long-term shareholders. The company's innovative streak and powerful brand have been key factors behind its performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.64%) 无疑为其长期股东提供了改变生活的回报。公司的创新能力和强大的品牌是其业绩背后的关键因素。</p>
</div><p>But is the party over for the tech giant? Apple has encountered some headwinds this year, particularly tied to tariffs and President Trump's trade wars. The stock has suffered, and considering it's worth $3.5 trillion, some see little upside ahead for the iPhone maker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这场盛宴是否结束了？苹果今年遇到了一些阻力，特别是与关税和特朗普总统的贸易战有关。股票受到了影响，考虑到其市值为 3.5 万亿美元，一些人认为这家 iPhone 制造商未来的上涨空间有限。</p>
</div><p>However, looking at some precedents, as well as Apple's own business, can help paint a clearer picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，查看一些先例以及苹果自身的业务，可以帮助我们更清晰地了解情况。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc1MjkvcGVyc29uLXVzaW5nLWEtc21hcnRwaG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837529%2Fperson-using-a-smartphone.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Apple has survived these troubles before</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果曾经克服过这些困难</h2>
</div><p>Whether it's due to the potential impact of tariffs or slowing iPhone growth, Apple has seen and overcome obstacles of this kind before.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论是由于关税的潜在影响还是 iPhone 增长放缓，苹果之前都曾见证并克服过此类障碍。</p>
</div><p>During Donald Trump's first presidency, the threat of tariffs was also present, though perhaps not as much as it is now. On Jan. 3, 2019, Apple's stock dropped by about 10% after the company lowered its guidance because of weak iPhone sales volume in China, partly resulting from Trump's trade wars. And On Aug. 5, 2019, Apple's shares fell by 5% after Trump announced tariffs on Chinese-imported goods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特朗普第一次担任总统期间，关税的威胁也曾存在，尽管可能没有现在这么严重。2019 年 1 月 3 日，苹果因中国 iPhone 销量疲软而下调指引，股票下跌约 10%，部分原因是特朗普的贸易战。2019 年 8 月 5 日，特朗普宣布对中国进口商品征收关税后，苹果股价下跌了 5%。</p>
</div><p>In both cases, Apple was able to rebound with flying colors. The stock has beaten the market following these two significant one-day market losses. Apple was, at the time, able to get around tariffs somewhat by negotiating with the administration to avoid -- or at least delay -- punitive duties on its imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这两种情况下，苹果都能够迅速反弹。股票在这两次重大的一日市场损失后超越了市场。那时，苹果通过与政府谈判，能够在一定程度上规避关税，避免或至少推迟对其进口商品的惩罚性关税。</p>
</div><p>Regarding the slowdown in iPhone sales in China, the company adopted a multipronged strategy that included slightly cutting prices. The result: Apple managed these roadblocks just fine, its financial results remained strong, and it crushed the market, as per its habit, in the years that followed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于中国 iPhone 销量放缓，公司采取了多管齐下的策略，包括略微降价。结果是：苹果成功应对了这些障碍，财务业绩依然强劲，并且在随后的几年中如往常一样超越了市场。</p>
</div><h2>The future is in the subscription business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>未来在于订阅业务</h2>
</div><p>The usual caveats regarding applying the past to the future are worth keeping in mind, especially since there are some important differences here. Trump's tariffs are even more aggressive this time around, for instance. And investors are also worried that the tech leader is falling behind in the artificial intelligence (AI) race.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在将过去应用于未来时，通常需要注意一些警告，尤其是这里存在一些重要的差异。例如，特朗普的关税这次更加激进。而且投资者也担心这家科技巨头在人工智能（AI）竞赛中落后。</p>
</div><p>Even so, one of the most important points to highlight about how Apple has navigated struggles before is that the company is highly adaptable. It announced local manufacturing efforts, amounting to $600 billion over the next four years, in a move to get back on Trump's good side.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，关于苹果如何应对以往困境的一个重要观点是，该公司具有高度的适应性。它宣布将在未来四年内进行 6000 亿美元的本地制造投资，以重新赢得特朗普的青睐。</p>
</div><p>Elsewhere, the company is looking to boost AI investments and attract talent in the field. Apple is close to acquiring PromptAI, an AI startup whose flagship app enhances home security cameras through smart activity detection features. PromptAI features notable names in the field, including its founder, Tete Xiao, who holds a Ph.D. in the field and has published academically.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，公司还希望增加对人工智能的投资并吸引该领域的人才。苹果接近收购 PromptAI，这是一家人工智能初创公司，其旗舰应用通过智能活动检测功能增强家庭安全摄像头的能力。PromptAI 在该领域拥有显著的人物，包括其创始人 Tete Xiao，他在该领域拥有博士学位并有学术发表。</p>
</div><p>Even if this acquisition falls through, Apple has generated $96.2 billion in free cash flow over the trailing-12-month period and has the means to buy out more AI talent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使这笔收购未能达成，苹果在过去 12 个月内产生了 962 亿美元的自由现金流，并有能力收购更多的人工智能人才。</p>
</div><p>The company generally doesn't rush to launch new products or features. Apple's strength has been its ability to add innovative tweaks to existing technologies and win over consumers, something it has done several times with smashing success. And with a vast and growing installed base of over two billion active devices, the company needs just a few successes to make a meaningful impact on its financial results. Furthermore, Apple's future is in its service segment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司通常不会急于推出新产品或功能。苹果的优势在于其能够对现有技术进行创新性调整并赢得消费者的青睐，这一点它已经多次成功实现。随着超过 20 亿活跃设备的庞大且不断增长的用户基础，公司只需几次成功就能对其财务业绩产生重大影响。此外，苹果的未来在于其服务部门。</p>
</div><p>The company has more than a billion paid subscriptions. Launching new services, whether related to AI or not, should allow the company to increase this predictable, high-margin source of recurring revenue. Over the long run, this will decrease Apple's exposure to tariffs and even hardware sales. What should remain is a massive installed base that serves as the basis for subscriptions across a wide range of everyday activities for its customers, from news and TV to health and payments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司拥有超过 10 亿个付费订阅。推出新服务，无论是否与人工智能相关，都应使公司能够增加这一可预测的高利润率的经常性收入来源。从长远来看，这将减少苹果对关税甚至硬件销售的依赖。剩下的将是一个庞大的用户基础，为客户的日常活动提供广泛的订阅基础，从新闻和电视到健康和支付。</p>
</div><p>The opportunities here are massive, making Apple's prospects attractive despite the headwinds it has encountered. History tells us the company can overcome them. The moves Apple is making today suggest there is a good chance it <em>will</em> overcome them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里的机会巨大，使得尽管面临阻力，苹果的前景依然吸引人。历史告诉我们，这家公司能够克服这些困难。苹果今天所做的举措表明，它有很大的机会能够克服这些挑战。</p>
</div>

Is Apple's Growth Story Over? Here's What History Says.

- 苹果公司面临关税和贸易战的挑战，股价受到影响。  
- 过去，苹果成功应对类似困境，展现出高度适应性。  
- 未来，苹果将重点发展服务业务和人工智能，前景依然乐观。

苹果的增长故事是否已经结束？历史告诉了我们什么