<p>毫无疑问，<strong>英伟达公司</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) 继续成为人工智能这一非凡范式转变的象征。在过去六个月中，NVDA 股票上涨了近 74%。然而，自大约八月初以来，该股票基本上停滞不前。大多数人可能会将其视为警告，但从统计上看，投资者往往会在下跌时买入。因此，这一停滞可以说为看涨的逆势投资者提供了一个诱人的机会。</p>
<p>当然，所有参与交易的人都必须意识到风险。尽管英伟达的财务业绩表现极为强劲，但人们也越来越担心它是否能够保持这种变化莫测的速度。在某个时刻，收益可能不再值得付出——这可能导致对 NVDA 股票溢价的负面调整。</p>
<p>更根本的是，英伟达的竞争对手正在发出声音。特别是，<strong>超威半导体公司</strong> (NASDAQ:AMD) 与 <strong>OpenAI</strong> 的里程碑式交易让华尔街沸腾。诚然，这一合作关系存在执行方面的警示。然而，<strong>Dan Ives</strong> 来自 Wedbush Securities 指出，市场 “仍然严重低估了对人工智能革命的支出。”</p>
<p>如果是这样，我们可以预期这个领域会变得拥挤——这可能再次迫使对预期进行调整。</p>
<p>不过，也有可能 NVDA 股票的放缓已经反映了这些和其他阻力。如果是这样，耐心的投资者可能不需要担心，因为该证券已经显示出上升的倾向。</p>
<p>更好的是，我们可以利用 NVDA 股票在相对压力下的行为倾向来制定一个概率上有利的期权交易。</p>
<h2>利用数据科学隔离 NVDA 股票的行为模式</h2>
<p>如前所述，NVDA 股票具有上升的倾向。根据 2019 年 1 月的数据，持有多头头寸在 10 周后获利的概率相当高，达到 73.4%。此外，在基线或综合条件下，10 周回报的中位价格形成了正态分布或钟形曲线。</p>
<p>假设锚定价格为 $179.83（周三收盘价），大多数中位价格结果预计将在 $170 到 $212 之间，价格大部分集中在 $190 到 $200 之间。除非你在预计的时间段内有真正令人信服的理由看跌，否则经验上合理的想法是考虑一个看涨策略。</p>
<p>也就是说，市场不能指望始终沿着其数学稳态趋势线交易。换句话说，我们通过 GARCH（广义自回归条件异方差）研究知道，近期波动对当前市场行为的影响远比很久以前出现的催化剂更为强大。现在使 NVDA 股票如此引人注目的是，它的即时状态正受到压力。</p>
<p>根据周三的收盘价，NVDA 处于 4-6-D 结构：四周上涨，六周下跌，整体呈下降轨迹。现在，这一序列并没有什么特别之处。但我们可以将这个量化信号标记，以了解 NVDA 在相对于基线条件下如何应对压力。</p>
<p>你知道科学家如何标记大白鲨以研究它们的迁徙模式吗？显然，海洋水域非常广阔，因此如果没有标记，科学家们只能猜测（即技术分析）。好吧，我们遵循的是完全相同的概念，只不过我们标记的是市场序列，并分析它们相对于数学稳态的迁徙模式。</p>
<p>找到条件模式与稳态趋势之间的正向不对称，你可能会发现一个定价不当的交易机会。</p>
<p>这似乎正是 NVDA 股票的情况。当标记 4-6-D 序列时，我们可以观察到 10 周回报的中位价格预计会聚集在 $196 水平。换句话说，向上的概率仍然看涨，但特定幅度的向上概率更为可靠。</p>
<h2>保守还是激进？</h2>
<p>随着英伟达定于 11 月 19 日披露其财报，我会关注 11 月 14 日的期权链。这样，我们可以依靠买新闻、卖谣言的情绪，这种情绪可以说比典型的财报披露混乱更可预测。处理完这一点后，有两个看涨的买权价差值得考虑。</p>
<p>第一个是更保守的，即 185/190 看涨价差（同样，截止日期为 11 月 14 日）。目前，这笔交易的盈亏平衡点为 $187.20。如果 NVDA 股票在到期时突破第二个行使价 ($190)，最大回报超过 127%。</p>
<p>第二笔交易，即 190/195 看涨价差，更具激进性，但仍然合理，基于与 4-6-D 序列相关的预期概率路径。如果 NVDA 股票突破这一对的较高行使价，当前最大回报超过 194%。不过，盈亏平衡点为 $191.70，较锚定价高出 6.6%。</p>
<p>底线是，押注于异常高的证券总是存在高风险。然而，如果你相信人工智能的故事，英伟达正在给你一个罕见的买入信号，而没有人谈论。</p>
<p><strong><em>本文中表达的观点和看法仅代表个人作者的观点，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文提供的任何信息的准确性或可靠性不承担责任。本文仅供信息参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的观点或信息，并在做出投资决策之前进行自己的尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>期权角落：超威半导体大幅上涨，但数学表明仍有增长空间</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达公司（NASDAQ:NVDA）在过去六个月中股价上涨了近 74%，但自八月以来已停滞不前。尽管对维持这一增长的担忧存在，分析师认为这可能是一个买入机会。由于财报将于 11 月 19 日公布，提出了两种看涨期权策略：一种是保守的 185/190 看涨价差，另一种是更激进的 190/195 看涨价差，均针对潜在的价格上涨。建议投资者考虑在像英伟达这样高表现股票交易时所面临的风险</p>

<p>Undeniably, <strong>Nvidia Corp</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) continues to be emblematic of the extraordinary paradigm shift that is artificial intelligence. In the trailing six months, NVDA stock has gained nearly 74%. However, since around early August, the equity has largely stagnated. That might be viewed as a warning by most, but statistically, investors tend to buy the dips. As such, the lull arguably presents an enticing opportunity for bullish contrarians.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，<strong>英伟达公司</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) 继续成为人工智能这一非凡范式转变的象征。在过去六个月中，NVDA 股票上涨了近 74%。然而，自大约八月初以来，该股票基本上停滞不前。大多数人可能会将其视为警告，但从统计上看，投资者往往会在下跌时买入。因此，这一停滞可以说为看涨的逆势投资者提供了一个诱人的机会。</p>
</div><p>Of course, everyone who enters into the trade must be aware of the risks. While Nvidia has had an incredibly strong run of financial results, there are also rising concerns about whether it can keep up this mercurial pace. At some point, the juice may no longer be worth the squeeze — and that could lead to a negative readjustment of the premium attached to NVDA stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，所有参与交易的人都必须意识到风险。尽管英伟达的财务业绩表现极为强劲，但人们也越来越担心它是否能够保持这种变化莫测的速度。在某个时刻，收益可能不再值得付出——这可能导致对 NVDA 股票溢价的负面调整。</p>
</div><p>More fundamentally, Nvidia's competitors are making noise. In particular, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices Inc</strong> (NASDAQ:AMD) got Wall Street buzzing with its landmark deal with <strong>OpenAI</strong>. Granted, there are execution caveats tied to the partnership. Nevertheless, <strong>Dan Ives</strong> of Wedbush Securities remarked that the market is &#34;still massively underestimating the spending on the AI revolution.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更根本的是，英伟达的竞争对手正在发出声音。特别是，<strong>超威半导体公司</strong> (NASDAQ:AMD) 与 <strong>OpenAI</strong> 的里程碑式交易让华尔街沸腾。诚然，这一合作关系存在执行方面的警示。然而，<strong>Dan Ives</strong> 来自 Wedbush Securities 指出，市场 “仍然严重低估了对人工智能革命的支出。”</p>
</div><p>If so, we can expect the arena to get crowded — and that might again force a readjustment of expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果是这样，我们可以预期这个领域会变得拥挤——这可能再次迫使对预期进行调整。</p>
</div><p>Then again, it's also possible that the slowdown in NVDA stock is already reflecting these and other headwinds. If so, patient investors may not need to worry as the security has demonstrated an upward bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，也有可能 NVDA 股票的放缓已经反映了这些和其他阻力。如果是这样，耐心的投资者可能不需要担心，因为该证券已经显示出上升的倾向。</p>
</div><p>Even better, we can leverage the behavioral tendencies of NVDA stock when under relative pressure to formulate a probabilistically favorable options trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更好的是，我们可以利用 NVDA 股票在相对压力下的行为倾向来制定一个概率上有利的期权交易。</p>
</div><h2>Using Data Science To Isolate Behavioral Patterns In NVDA Stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利用数据科学隔离 NVDA 股票的行为模式</h2>
</div><p>As mentioned earlier, NVDA stock has an upward bias. Using data from January 2019, the odds that a long position will be profitable 10 weeks out is quite high at 73.4%. Further, the median price of 10-week returns under baseline or aggregate conditions forms a normal distribution or bell curve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，NVDA 股票具有上升的倾向。根据 2019 年 1 月的数据，持有多头头寸在 10 周后获利的概率相当高，达到 73.4%。此外，在基线或综合条件下，10 周回报的中位价格形成了正态分布或钟形曲线。</p>
</div><p>Assuming an anchor price of $179.83 (Wednesday's close), most median price outcomes are projected to range between $170 and $212, with the bulk of prices clustering between $190 and $200. Unless you had a truly compelling reason to be bearish during the projected time period, the empirically sound idea would be to consider a bullish strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假设锚定价格为 $179.83（周三收盘价），大多数中位价格结果预计将在 $170 到 $212 之间，价格大部分集中在 $190 到 $200 之间。除非你在预计的时间段内有真正令人信服的理由看跌，否则经验上合理的想法是考虑一个看涨策略。</p>
</div><p>That said, the market can't be expected to constantly trade along its mathematical homeostatic trendline. In other words, we know through GARCH (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) studies that near-term volatility has a much more powerful influence on current market behavior than catalysts that materialized a long time ago. What makes NVDA stock so intriguing right now is that its immediate state is under pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，市场不能指望始终沿着其数学稳态趋势线交易。换句话说，我们通过 GARCH（广义自回归条件异方差）研究知道，近期波动对当前市场行为的影响远比很久以前出现的催化剂更为强大。现在使 NVDA 股票如此引人注目的是，它的即时状态正受到压力。</p>
</div><p>Quantitatively through Wednesday's close, NVDA was structured in a 4-6-D formation: four up weeks, six down weeks, with an overall downward trajectory. Now, there's nothing special about this sequence. But we can tag this quant signal to understand how NVDA responds to pressure relative to baseline conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据周三的收盘价，NVDA 处于 4-6-D 结构：四周上涨，六周下跌，整体呈下降轨迹。现在，这一序列并没有什么特别之处。但我们可以将这个量化信号标记，以了解 NVDA 在相对于基线条件下如何应对压力。</p>
</div><p>You know how scientists tag great white sharks to study their migration patterns? Obviously, ocean waters are massive so without the tagging, scientists would just be guessing (i.e. technical analysis). Well, we're following the exact same concept, except that we're tagging market sequences and analyzing their migration patterns relative to their mathematical homeostasis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你知道科学家如何标记大白鲨以研究它们的迁徙模式吗？显然，海洋水域非常广阔，因此如果没有标记，科学家们只能猜测（即技术分析）。好吧，我们遵循的是完全相同的概念，只不过我们标记的是市场序列，并分析它们相对于数学稳态的迁徙模式。</p>
</div><p>Find a positive asymmetry between the conditional pattern and the homeostatic trend and you just might have a favorably mispriced trading opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>找到条件模式与稳态趋势之间的正向不对称，你可能会发现一个定价不当的交易机会。</p>
</div><p>That seems to be the case for NVDA stock. When tagging the 4-6-D sequence, we can observe that median prices from 10-week returns are projected to cluster around the $196 level. In other words, the probability of upside remains bullish but the likelihood of a specific magnitude of upside is more reliably frequent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这似乎正是 NVDA 股票的情况。当标记 4-6-D 序列时，我们可以观察到 10 周回报的中位价格预计会聚集在 $196 水平。换句话说，向上的概率仍然看涨，但特定幅度的向上概率更为可靠。</p>
</div><h2>Go Conservative Or Aggressive?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>保守还是激进？</h2>
</div><p>With Nvidia set to disclose its earnings report on Nov. 19, I would be looking at targeting the Nov. 14 options chain. This way, we can bank on the buy-the-news, sell-the-rumor sentiments, which are arguably more predictable than typical earnings disclosure chaos. With that out of the way, there are two bull call spreads to consider.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着英伟达定于 11 月 19 日披露其财报，我会关注 11 月 14 日的期权链。这样，我们可以依靠买新闻、卖谣言的情绪，这种情绪可以说比典型的财报披露混乱更可预测。处理完这一点后，有两个看涨的买权价差值得考虑。</p>
</div><p>The first one is more conservative, which is the 185/190 bull call spread (again, expiring Nov. 14). Currently, the breakeven for this trade lands at $187.20. Should NVDA stock rise through the second-leg strike price ($190) at expiration, the maximum payout stands at over 127%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一个是更保守的，即 185/190 看涨价差（同样，截止日期为 11 月 14 日）。目前，这笔交易的盈亏平衡点为 $187.20。如果 NVDA 股票在到期时突破第二个行使价 ($190)，最大回报超过 127%。</p>
</div><p>The second trade, the 190/195 bull spread, is more aggressive but still reasonable based on expected probabilistic pathways tied to the 4-6-D sequence. If NVDA stock rises through the higher strike price of the pair, the max payout currently clocks in at over 194%. Breakeven is $191.70, though, which is 6.6% above the anchor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二笔交易，即 190/195 看涨价差，更具激进性，但仍然合理，基于与 4-6-D 序列相关的预期概率路径。如果 NVDA 股票突破这一对的较高行使价，当前最大回报超过 194%。不过，盈亏平衡点为 $191.70，较锚定价高出 6.6%。</p>
</div><p>Bottom line, there are always high risks involved when betting on an exceptionally elevated security. However, if you believe in the AI story, Nvidia is giving you a rare buy signal that no one is talking about.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>底线是，押注于异常高的证券总是存在高风险。然而，如果你相信人工智能的故事，英伟达正在给你一个罕见的买入信号，而没有人谈论。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>The opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>本文中表达的观点和看法仅代表个人作者的观点，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文提供的任何信息的准确性或可靠性不承担责任。本文仅供信息参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的观点或信息，并在做出投资决策之前进行自己的尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Options Corner: Advanced Micro Devices Is Up Big But The Math Suggests There’s More Room For Growth</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>期权角落：超威半导体大幅上涨，但数学表明仍有增长空间</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Options Corner: Nvidia Just Flashed A Rare 'Buy' Signal One Month Ahead Of Earnings

- Nvidia 股价在过去六个月上涨近 74%，但自八月以来停滞不前。  
- 竞争对手 AMD 与 OpenAI 的合作引发市场关注，可能影响 Nvidia 的预期。  
- 投资者可考虑在即将发布的财报前进行看涨期权交易。

期权专栏：英伟达在财报发布前一个月刚刚发出了罕见的 “买入” 信号