<p>本周早些时候，华尔街庆祝了基准 <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> 指数当前牛市开始三周年。虽然人工智能（AI）的发展在推动整体市场达到新高方面发挥了关键作用，但 AI 并不是目前推动投资者乐观情绪的唯一颠覆性趋势。</p>
<p>华尔街和普通投资者对量子计算的前景感到极为兴奋，这在四个热门纯量子计算公司的过去 12 个月（TTM）回报中显而易见：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -9.42%): 上涨 633%。</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI -14.94%): 上涨 6,770%。</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS -9.67%): 上涨 4,330%。</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT -11.63%): 上涨 3,040%。</li>
</ul>
<p>虽然这项技术在短时间内为投资者带来了改变生活的回报，但这四只量子计算股票也向华尔街发出了明确而不容忽视的警告。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5MzAvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItaW52ZXN0LWJ1eS1zZWxsLW9wdGlvbnMtc3RvY2stZXhjaGFuZ2UtZ2V0dHkucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5MzAvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItaW52ZXN0LWJ1eS1zZWxsLW9wdGlvbnMtc3RvY2stZXhjaGFuZ2UtZ2V0dHkucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>为什么量子计算股票是自面包切片以来最热门的事物？</h2>
<p>不必过于技术化，量子计算依赖于量子力学和专用计算机来解决传统计算机无法处理的复杂问题（至少在我们的生命中是这样）。</p>
<p>就像互联网彻底改变了企业对企业和企业对消费者的商业模式一样，投资者将量子计算视为能够为多个行业带来下一次飞跃的技术。例如，在量子计算机上运行的分子相互作用模拟可以迅速缩小药物开发者在应对难治性和致命疾病时的最佳行动方案。</p>
<p>量子计算机还可以用来破解现有的基于 AI 和机器学习的网络安全平台，使其更加安全。进一步说，这项技术有潜力加速 AI 算法的学习过程，从而提高 AI 驱动软件的效率和采用率。</p>
<p>除了这一现实效用的片段外，华尔街和投资者对量子计算日益增长的可寻址机会也充满兴趣。波士顿咨询集团预计，到 2040 年，量子计算将为全球经济增加 4,500 亿到 8,500 亿美元的价值，而在线出版物《量子内幕》则认为，到 2035 年可以创造 1 万亿美元的全球经济价值。</p>
<p>一些量子计算的纯量子公司也在与华尔街一些最具影响力的企业合作。<strong>IonQ</strong> 和 <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong> 的量子计算机均可通过 <strong>Amazon</strong> 的量子计算服务 Braket 访问。</p>
<p>在势头的推动下，<strong>IonQ</strong>、<strong>Rigetti</strong>、<strong>D-Wave</strong> 和 <strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong> 的股票价格飙升。然而，事情可能并不像它们各自的回报所暗示的那样完美。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5MzAvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5MzAvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>这份 8.75 亿美元的警告不应被投资者忽视</h2>
<p>虽然财报、管理层评论和投资者演示在投资者了解公司前景时位于首位，但内部交易活动也可能极为重要。</p>
<p>“内部人士” 是指高层管理人员、公司董事会成员或持有至少 10% 流通股的受益所有者。简而言之，这些人可能掌握非公开信息，并且应该比任何华尔街分析师或散户投资者更了解他们的公司。</p>
<p>上市公司的内部人士必须在进行交易后不超过两个工作日内向证券交易委员会提交 4 号表格。这包括他们购买自己公司股票、出售股票或甚至行使期权时的情况。上市公司的内部人士必须全面披露。</p>
<p>对过去五年（或自上市以来）内部活动的快速回顾揭示了华尔街量子计算宠儿的投资者的警示故事：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>: 内部人士净卖出 569,934,078 美元</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>: 内部人士净卖出 50,124,972 美元</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>: 内部人士净卖出 221,687,659 美元</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>: 内部人士净卖出 33,245,464 美元</li>
</ul>
<p>在过去五年中，这四家量子计算纯量子公司的内部人士共净卖出了 8.75 亿美元的公司股票。</p>
<p>在深入探讨之前，让我在上述数据中引入一点注释。上市公司的高管和/或董事的薪酬通常以普通股和期权的形式支付。为了满足联邦和/或州级税务责任，高管和董事通常会出售股票。</p>
<p>内部人士的卖出并不一定对公司构成致命打击。出于税务目的出售股票，或为了多样化投资组合，并不是投资者应该过于担忧的事情。</p>
<p>另一方面，内部人士购买股票的唯一原因是：他们相信自己的股票会增值。这四家量子计算纯量子公司几乎没有或根本没有内部人士购买。<strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong> 没有内部人士购买，而 <strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong> 的最后一次内部人士购买发生在三年多前！如果内部人士不愿意在自己的股票上投资，投资者又为什么要投资呢？</p>
<p>这种缺乏内部人士购买的情况，与持续的卖出活动相比，使得量子计算股票估值周围的红旗更加明显。</p>
<p>虽然在下一代趋势的前沿股票以溢价估值交易并不罕见，但量子计算股票的过去 12 个月市销率（P/S）比率却高得离谱，且历史上不可持续。没有任何一家大型股票能够维持 30 或更高的过去 12 个月市销率，而 IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的过去 12 个月市销率分别为 340、1,796、494 和 10,250！</p>
<p>将这集体 8.75 亿美元的净卖出活动视为华尔街的又一个警告，表明量子计算股票的这种抛物线式上涨是不可持续的。</p>

QBTS

IONQ

RGTI

<p>IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc. 的股价均出现显著上涨，回报率分别为 633%、6,770%、4,330% 和 3,040%。然而，内部人士在过去五年中总共出售了 8.75 亿美元的股份，这引发了对这些收益可持续性的担忧。尽管量子计算被视为具有潜在经济价值的变革性技术，但内部人士缺乏买入的情况对投资者来说意味着需要谨慎</p>

<p>Earlier this week, Wall Street celebrated the three-year anniversary of the start of the current bull market for the benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>. While the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) has played a key role in sending the broader market to new heights, AI isn't the only game-changing trend fueling investor optimism at the moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周早些时候，华尔街庆祝了基准 <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> 指数当前牛市开始三周年。虽然人工智能（AI）的发展在推动整体市场达到新高方面发挥了关键作用，但 AI 并不是目前推动投资者乐观情绪的唯一颠覆性趋势。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street and everyday investors are extremely excited about the prospects of quantum computing, which is evident in the trailing-12-month (TTM) returns for four popular pure-plays:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街和普通投资者对量子计算的前景感到极为兴奋，这在四个热门纯量子计算公司的过去 12 个月（TTM）回报中显而易见：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -9.42%): up 633%.</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI -14.94%): up 6,770%.</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS -9.67%): up 4,330%.</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT -11.63%): up 3,040%.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -9.42%): 上涨 633%。</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI -14.94%): 上涨 6,770%。</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS -9.67%): 上涨 4,330%。</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT -11.63%): 上涨 3,040%。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>While this technology is delivering life-changing returns to investors in a short time frame, these four quantum computing stocks are also delivering a clear and unmistakable warning to Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这项技术在短时间内为投资者带来了改变生活的回报，但这四只量子计算股票也向华尔街发出了明确而不容忽视的警告。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5MzAvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItaW52ZXN0LWJ1eS1zZWxsLW9wdGlvbnMtc3RvY2stZXhjaGFuZ2UtZ2V0dHkucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837930%2Fnyse-floor-trader-invest-buy-sell-options-stock-exchange-getty.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why are quantum computing stocks the hottest thing since sliced bread?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么量子计算股票是自面包切片以来最热门的事物？</h2>
</div><p>Without getting overly technical, quantum computing relies on quantum mechanics and specialized computers to solve complex problems that traditional computers wouldn't be able to do (at least in our lifetime).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不必过于技术化，量子计算依赖于量子力学和专用计算机来解决传统计算机无法处理的复杂问题（至少在我们的生命中是这样）。</p>
</div><p>Much like the internet revolutionized business-to-business and business-to-consumer commerce, investors are looking to quantum computing as a technology that can usher in the next leap forward for a variety of industries. For instance, molecular interaction simulations run on quantum computers can rapidly narrow down the best course of action for drug developers when attempting to tackle hard-to-treat and deadly diseases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就像互联网彻底改变了企业对企业和企业对消费者的商业模式一样，投资者将量子计算视为能够为多个行业带来下一次飞跃的技术。例如，在量子计算机上运行的分子相互作用模拟可以迅速缩小药物开发者在应对难治性和致命疾病时的最佳行动方案。</p>
</div><p>Quantum computers can also be used to break existing AI- and machine learning-powered cybersecurity platforms to make them even safer. To build on this point, this technology has the potential to speed up the learning process of AI algorithms, which can enhance the efficiency and adoption of AI-empowered software.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子计算机还可以用来破解现有的基于 AI 和机器学习的网络安全平台，使其更加安全。进一步说，这项技术有潜力加速 AI 算法的学习过程，从而提高 AI 驱动软件的效率和采用率。</p>
</div><p>Aside from this snippet of real-world utility, Wall Street and investors are intrigued by the growing addressable opportunity for quantum computing. Whereas Boston Consulting Group sees it adding $450 billion to $850 billion in global economic value come 2040, online publication The Quantum Insider believes $1 trillion in worldwide economic value can be created by 2035.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了这一现实效用的片段外，华尔街和投资者对量子计算日益增长的可寻址机会也充满兴趣。波士顿咨询集团预计，到 2040 年，量子计算将为全球经济增加 4,500 亿到 8,500 亿美元的价值，而在线出版物《量子内幕》则认为，到 2035 年可以创造 1 万亿美元的全球经济价值。</p>
</div><p>A handful of quantum computing pure-plays are working with some of Wall Street's most-influential businesses, as well. Quantum computers from IonQ and Rigetti Computing are both accessible using <strong>Amazon</strong>'s quantum computing service, Braket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些量子计算的纯量子公司也在与华尔街一些最具影响力的企业合作。<strong>IonQ</strong> 和 <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong> 的量子计算机均可通过 <strong>Amazon</strong> 的量子计算服务 Braket 访问。</p>
</div><p>With momentum on their side, IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing, Inc. have seen their shares skyrocket. However, things may not be as perfect as their respective returns suggest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在势头的推动下，<strong>IonQ</strong>、<strong>Rigetti</strong>、<strong>D-Wave</strong> 和 <strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong> 的股票价格飙升。然而，事情可能并不像它们各自的回报所暗示的那样完美。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5MzAvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837930%2Fred-dice-buy-sell-stock-chart-financial-data-invest-billionaire-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>This $875 million warning to Wall Street shouldn't be ignored by investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这份 8.75 亿美元的警告不应被投资者忽视</h2>
</div><p>While earnings reports, management commentary, and investor presentations are at the top of the list for investors when learning about a company's prospects, insider trading activity can also be incredibly important.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然财报、管理层评论和投资者演示在投资者了解公司前景时位于首位，但内部交易活动也可能极为重要。</p>
</div><p>An &#34;insider&#34; is a high-ranking executive, someone on the company's board, or a beneficial owner who holds at least 10% of outstanding shares. In short, these are folks who may possess non-public information and should know their company better than any Wall Street analyst or retail investor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“内部人士” 是指高层管理人员、公司董事会成员或持有至少 10% 流通股的受益所有者。简而言之，这些人可能掌握非公开信息，并且应该比任何华尔街分析师或散户投资者更了解他们的公司。</p>
</div><p>Insiders of publicly traded companies are required to file Form 4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission no later than two business days after making a trade. This includes when they're buying shares of their own company, selling stock, or even exercising options. Full disclosure is a requirement for insiders of publicly traded businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上市公司的内部人士必须在进行交易后不超过两个工作日内向证券交易委员会提交 4 号表格。这包括他们购买自己公司股票、出售股票或甚至行使期权时的情况。上市公司的内部人士必须全面披露。</p>
</div><p>A quick roundup of insider activity over the trailing-five-year period (or as long as they've been public) reveals a cautionary tale for investors of Wall Street's quantum computing darlings:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对过去五年（或自上市以来）内部活动的快速回顾揭示了华尔街量子计算宠儿的投资者的警示故事：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>: $569,934,078 in net-selling by insiders</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>: $50,124,972 in net-selling by insiders</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>: $221,687,659 in net-selling by insiders</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>: $33,245,464 in net-selling by insiders</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>: 内部人士净卖出 569,934,078 美元</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>: 内部人士净卖出 50,124,972 美元</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>: 内部人士净卖出 221,687,659 美元</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>: 内部人士净卖出 33,245,464 美元</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Collectively, insiders at these four quantum computing pure-plays have sold a net of $875 million of their company's respective shares over the last five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去五年中，这四家量子计算纯量子公司的内部人士共净卖出了 8.75 亿美元的公司股票。</p>
</div><p>Before diving deeper, let me introduce a bit of an asterisk into the above data. Compensation for executives and/or directors at publicly traded companies often comes in the form of common stock and options. To satisfy the federal and/or state-level tax liability for this compensation, executives and directors commonly sell stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在深入探讨之前，让我在上述数据中引入一点注释。上市公司的高管和/或董事的薪酬通常以普通股和期权的形式支付。为了满足联邦和/或州级税务责任，高管和董事通常会出售股票。</p>
</div><p>Insider selling isn't necessarily damning to a company. Selling stock for tax purposes, or to diversify an investment portfolio, isn't something that investors should worry about too much.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>内部人士的卖出并不一定对公司构成致命打击。出于税务目的出售股票，或为了多样化投资组合，并不是投资者应该过于担忧的事情。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, there's only one reason for insiders to buy shares: they believe their stock will increase in value. All four quantum computing pure-plays have seen minimal or nonexistent insider buying. Quantum Computing, Inc. has seen zero insider purchases, while the last insider purchase at D-Wave Quantum occurred more than three years ago! If insiders aren't putting their money to work in their own stock, why should investors?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，内部人士购买股票的唯一原因是：他们相信自己的股票会增值。这四家量子计算纯量子公司几乎没有或根本没有内部人士购买。<strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong> 没有内部人士购买，而 <strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong> 的最后一次内部人士购买发生在三年多前！如果内部人士不愿意在自己的股票上投资，投资者又为什么要投资呢？</p>
</div><p>This lack of insider buying, when pared against persistent selling activity, makes the red flag surrounding quantum computing stock valuations shine even brighter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种缺乏内部人士购买的情况，与持续的卖出活动相比，使得量子计算股票估值周围的红旗更加明显。</p>
</div><p>While it's not uncommon for stocks on the cutting-edge of a next-big-thing trend to trade at a premium valuation, the TTM price-to-sales (P/S) ratios for quantum computing stocks are off the charts and historically unsustainable. Whereas no megacap stock leading an innovative trend has ever been able to sustain a TTM P/S ratio of 30 or higher, IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing, Inc. are sporting respective TTM P/S ratios of 340, 1,796, 494, and 10,250!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然在下一代趋势的前沿股票以溢价估值交易并不罕见，但量子计算股票的过去 12 个月市销率（P/S）比率却高得离谱，且历史上不可持续。没有任何一家大型股票能够维持 30 或更高的过去 12 个月市销率，而 IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的过去 12 个月市销率分别为 340、1,796、494 和 10,250！</p>
</div><p>Chalk up this collective $875 million in net-selling activity as yet another warning to Wall Street that this parabolic run-up in quantum computing stocks is unsustainable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将这集体 8.75 亿美元的净卖出活动视为华尔街的又一个警告，表明量子计算股票的这种抛物线式上涨是不可持续的。</p>
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IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc. 向华尔街发出了价值 8.75 亿美元的警告