<p><strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR -0.83%) 在近年来成为最受欢迎的人工智能（AI）投资之一，这并非没有理由：它为股东带来了惊人的回报。如果你在 2023 年初生成式 AI 竞赛开始时投资了 10,000 美元，那么你的投资今天将增值至约 280,000 美元。这在相对较短的时间内是一个难以置信的回报，但公司尚未完全实现这些收益。由于 Palantir 的市盈率接近 600，许多预期的未来增长已经反映在股价中。</p>
<p>考虑到其已经过热，我不认为其当前的增长势头会持续太久。我相信这可能会使 <strong>ASML</strong>(ASML 0.79%) 和 <strong>AMD</strong>(AMD -1.70%) 在 2026 年底超过 Palantir 的市值——目前为 4260 亿美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1NzQvaW1hZ2Utb2YtYS1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1yaXNpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1NzQvaW1hZ2Utb2YtYS1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1yaXNpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>多年的激进增长假设已融入 Palantir 的股价</h2>
<p>AMD 和 ASML 的市值略小于 Palantir，分别为 3500 亿美元和 4050 亿美元。然而，我认为它们很容易追赶上，尽管它们的股价上涨可能并不完全基于自身的即时表现。</p>
<p>尽管 Palantir 的股价自 2023 年初以来上涨了约 2700%，但其收入仅增长了 80%。这之间存在巨大的不匹配，表明 Palantir 股价上涨的原因在于市盈率的扩张。虽然这种机制可以推动长期股东回报（<strong>苹果</strong> 股票就是一个很好的例子），但合理性仅限于某个水平。</p>
<p>Palantir 似乎已经超过了这个水平。除了其高昂的市盈率外，它的市销率为 130 倍，未来市盈率为 276 倍。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cacf25df488eb0d0b39b0f70b2d4551f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cacf25df488eb0d0b39b0f70b2d4551f.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 市盈率（前瞻）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>这些都是难以置信的溢价，远远超过大多数股票所达到的估值水平。然而，由于 Palantir 的增长率仍在加速，其市值持续上升。只要 Palantir 的增长率放缓，我预计股价将迅速下跌。</p>
<p>假设 Palantir 在未来六年内能够以持续 50% 的速度增长其收入。同时假设它能够实现 35% 的利润率。如果这样，收入和利润将从今天的 34.4 亿美元和 7.72 亿美元增长到六年后的 392 亿美元和 137 亿美元。这将是前所未有的持续增长率，但即使实现这些，股票的估值仍将是前瞻市盈率 31 倍。作为参考，<strong>Nvidia</strong>，AI 硬件之王，交易的市盈率为其预期 2026 年收益的 30 倍。</p>
<p>对于 Palantir 来说，这个价格实在是太高了，尤其是考虑到我所假设的那些难以置信的乐观前景。我认为这种情况使其面临修正的风险。</p>
<h2>AMD 和 ASML 在 AI 军备竞赛中至关重要</h2>
<p>虽然 AMD 在开发已成为必需 AI 硬件的 GPU 方面长期以来一直是 Nvidia 的第二名竞争者，但其命运似乎正在改变。AMD 和 ChatGPT 开发者 OpenAI 最近宣布了一项合作关系，根据该协议，OpenAI 将从这家芯片制造商那里购买多达 6 吉瓦的计算能力。作为交易的一部分，OpenAI 还将获得相当于 AMD 约 10% 的新股份，一旦所有里程碑都达成。</p>
<p>虽然关于这笔交易如何进行还有一些疑问，但 AMD 可能会看到其他客户将部分 GPU 采购从 Nvidia 的硬件转向 AMD 更便宜（但同样有能力）的替代品。这可能会引发对 AMD 股票的极大兴奋，而 AMD 的股价在 10 月份已经上涨了约 40%。如果业务增长跟随，AMD 明年这个时候很可能会成为比 Palantir 更大的公司。</p>
<p>ASML 是 AI 领域的另一个关键参与者。其极紫外（EUV）光刻机是地球上唯一能够制造当今最高端芯片的设备。没有它们，AI 技术将不会是现在的样子。</p>
<p>ASML 在芯片制造过程中的重要角色是安全的，因为它在其产品线中拥有技术垄断。这种情况相当罕见，当投资者识别出这些情况时，他们应该采取行动并相应投资。为了满足日益增长的芯片需求，ASML 的机器将需要更多，这应该有助于公司在 2026 年实现稳健增长。虽然投资者不应期待股票会迅速飙升，但我认为它可以稳健地超越市场。</p>
<p>不仅 ASML 和 AMD 有良好的增长趋势在其有利，二者的估值也远比 Palantir 合理。AMD 的前瞻市盈率为 55 倍，而 ASML 的前瞻市盈率为 35 倍。这种溢价的差异可能足以在明年年底之前使 AMD 和 ASML 占据优势，这使得它们现在成为更好的投资。</p>

阿斯麦

PLTR

AMDL

<p>Palantir Technologies 的股票价值显著上升，但其高市盈率表明可能被高估。分析师预测，由于 ASML 和 AMD 的估值更为合理以及在人工智能领域的关键角色，它们可能在 2026 年底超越 Palantir 的市值。AMD 与 OpenAI 的合作以及 ASML 在先进芯片制造方面的垄断地位使它们具备增长潜力，而 Palantir 的股票可能会面临调整，因为其增长率放缓</p>

<p><strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR -0.83%) has been one of the most popular artificial intelligence (AI) investments in recent years, and for a good reason: It has delivered incredible returns to its shareholders. If you had invested $10,000 in it as the generative AI race took off at the start of 2023, your investment would have grown to be worth about $280,000 today. That's an unbelievable return in a relatively short time frame, but not all of those gains have been earned yet by the company. With Palantir trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of close to 600, a lot of expected future growth is already priced into the shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR -0.83%) 在近年来成为最受欢迎的人工智能（AI）投资之一，这并非没有理由：它为股东带来了惊人的回报。如果你在 2023 年初生成式 AI 竞赛开始时投资了 10,000 美元，那么你的投资今天将增值至约 280,000 美元。这在相对较短的时间内是一个难以置信的回报，但公司尚未完全实现这些收益。由于 Palantir 的市盈率接近 600，许多预期的未来增长已经反映在股价中。</p>
</div><p>Given how overheated it has become, I don't anticipate its current growth spurt lasting much longer. I believe that could set up <strong>ASML</strong>(ASML 0.79%) and <strong>AMD</strong>(AMD -1.70%) to pass Palantir's market cap -- currently $426 billion -- by late 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到其已经过热，我不认为其当前的增长势头会持续太久。我相信这可能会使 <strong>ASML</strong>(ASML 0.79%) 和 <strong>AMD</strong>(AMD -1.70%) 在 2026 年底超过 Palantir 的市值——目前为 4260 亿美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1NzQvaW1hZ2Utb2YtYS1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1yaXNpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F836574%2Fimage-of-a-stock-chart-rising.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Years' worth of aggressive growth assumptions are baked into Palantir's stock price</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>多年的激进增长假设已融入 Palantir 的股价</h2>
</div><p>AMD and ASML's market caps are slightly smaller than Palantir's, at $350 billion and $405 billion, respectively. However, I think they could easily catch up, although their share price gains may not be based solely on their own immediate performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMD 和 ASML 的市值略小于 Palantir，分别为 3500 亿美元和 4050 亿美元。然而，我认为它们很容易追赶上，尽管它们的股价上涨可能并不完全基于自身的即时表现。</p>
</div><p>Although Palantir's stock is up around 2,700% since the start of 2023, its revenue has only risen by 80%. That's a huge mismatch, and it points to multiple expansion as the reason for Palantir's stock rise. While this mechanism can drive long-term shareholder returns ( <strong>Apple</strong> stock is a great example), it's only reasonable to a certain level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Palantir 的股价自 2023 年初以来上涨了约 2700%，但其收入仅增长了 80%。这之间存在巨大的不匹配，表明 Palantir 股价上涨的原因在于市盈率的扩张。虽然这种机制可以推动长期股东回报（<strong>苹果</strong> 股票就是一个很好的例子），但合理性仅限于某个水平。</p>
</div><p>Palantir seems to have exceeded that level. Beyond its lofty trailing P/E ratio, it trades for 130 times trailing sales and 276 times forward earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 似乎已经超过了这个水平。除了其高昂的市盈率外，它的市销率为 130 倍，未来市盈率为 276 倍。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cacf25df488eb0d0b39b0f70b2d4551f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cacf25df488eb0d0b39b0f70b2d4551f.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 市盈率（前瞻）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>These are unbelievable premiums that far exceed the valuation levels most stocks ever reach. However, because Palantir's growth rate is still accelerating, its market cap has continued to rise. As soon as Palantir's growth rate slows, I expect the stock to rapidly tumble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些都是难以置信的溢价，远远超过大多数股票所达到的估值水平。然而，由于 Palantir 的增长率仍在加速，其市值持续上升。只要 Palantir 的增长率放缓，我预计股价将迅速下跌。</p>
</div><p>Let's say that Palantir can grow its revenue at a sustained 50% pace over the next six years. Assume also that it can achieve a 35% profit margin. If it does, revenue and profits would grow from $3.44 billion and $772 million today to $39.2 billion and $13.7 billion six years from now. That would be an unprecedented sustained growth rate, but even if it achieves those things, the stock would still be valued at 31 times forward earnings. For reference, <strong>Nvidia</strong>, the king of AI hardware, trades for 30 times its expected 2026 earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假设 Palantir 在未来六年内能够以持续 50% 的速度增长其收入。同时假设它能够实现 35% 的利润率。如果这样，收入和利润将从今天的 34.4 亿美元和 7.72 亿美元增长到六年后的 392 亿美元和 137 亿美元。这将是前所未有的持续增长率，但即使实现这些，股票的估值仍将是前瞻市盈率 31 倍。作为参考，<strong>Nvidia</strong>，AI 硬件之王，交易的市盈率为其预期 2026 年收益的 30 倍。</p>
</div><p>That's far too great a price to pay for Palantir, especially considering how unbelievably bullish the assumptions I've postulated are. I think this situation has left it vulnerable to a correction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 Palantir 来说，这个价格实在是太高了，尤其是考虑到我所假设的那些难以置信的乐观前景。我认为这种情况使其面临修正的风险。</p>
</div><h2>AMD and ASML are critical to the AI arms race</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AMD 和 ASML 在 AI 军备竞赛中至关重要</h2>
</div><p>While AMD has long been a second-place player to Nvidia in the race to develop the GPUs that have become essential AI hardware, its fortunes seem to be changing. AMD and ChatGPT developer OpenAI recently announced a partnership under which OpenAI will buy up to 6 gigawatts of computing power from the chipmaker. As part of the deal, OpenAI will also wind up with new shares equal to about 10% of AMD, once all milestones are met.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 AMD 在开发已成为必需 AI 硬件的 GPU 方面长期以来一直是 Nvidia 的第二名竞争者，但其命运似乎正在改变。AMD 和 ChatGPT 开发者 OpenAI 最近宣布了一项合作关系，根据该协议，OpenAI 将从这家芯片制造商那里购买多达 6 吉瓦的计算能力。作为交易的一部分，OpenAI 还将获得相当于 AMD 约 10% 的新股份，一旦所有里程碑都达成。</p>
</div><p>While there are some questions surrounding how this deal will play out, AMD could see a ripple effect of other customers switching some of their GPU purchases from Nvidia's hardware to AMD's cheaper (but similarly capable) alternatives. This could drive a ton of excitement about AMD's stock, which is already up by about 40% in October. If business gains follow, AMD could easily be a bigger company than Palantir this time next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然关于这笔交易如何进行还有一些疑问，但 AMD 可能会看到其他客户将部分 GPU 采购从 Nvidia 的硬件转向 AMD 更便宜（但同样有能力）的替代品。这可能会引发对 AMD 股票的极大兴奋，而 AMD 的股价在 10 月份已经上涨了约 40%。如果业务增长跟随，AMD 明年这个时候很可能会成为比 Palantir 更大的公司。</p>
</div><p>ASML is another key player in the AI realm. Its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines are the only ones on Earth capable of manufacturing today's highest-end chips. Without them, AI technology as we know it wouldn't be the same.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ASML 是 AI 领域的另一个关键参与者。其极紫外（EUV）光刻机是地球上唯一能够制造当今最高端芯片的设备。没有它们，AI 技术将不会是现在的样子。</p>
</div><p>ASML's vital role in the chip manufacturing process is secure because it has a technological monopoly on its product line. Such situations are quite rare, and when investors identify them, they should take action and invest accordingly. More of ASML's machines will be required to meet rising chip demand, which should help the company deliver solid growth in 2026. While investors shouldn't expect the stock to rocket higher, I think it can solidly beat the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ASML 在芯片制造过程中的重要角色是安全的，因为它在其产品线中拥有技术垄断。这种情况相当罕见，当投资者识别出这些情况时，他们应该采取行动并相应投资。为了满足日益增长的芯片需求，ASML 的机器将需要更多，这应该有助于公司在 2026 年实现稳健增长。虽然投资者不应期待股票会迅速飙升，但我认为它可以稳健地超越市场。</p>
</div><p>Not only do ASML and AMD have solid growth trends acting in their favor, both are priced at much more reasonable valuations than Palantir is. AMD trades at 55 times forward earnings while ASML trades at 35 times forward earnings. That difference in their premiums will likely be enough to tip the scales in favor of AMD and ASML by the end of next year, which makes them better investments now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不仅 ASML 和 AMD 有良好的增长趋势在其有利，二者的估值也远比 Palantir 合理。AMD 的前瞻市盈率为 55 倍，而 ASML 的前瞻市盈率为 35 倍。这种溢价的差异可能足以在明年年底之前使 AMD 和 ASML 占据优势，这使得它们现在成为更好的投资。</p>
</div>

Prediction: These 2 Stocks Will Be Worth More Than Palantir Technologies 1 Year From Now

- Palantir Technologies 的市值为 4260 亿美元，股价已上涨 2700%。  
- 预计 ASML 和 AMD 将在 2026 年超越 Palantir 的市值。  
- AMD 和 ASML 的估值更合理，分别为 55 倍和 35 倍预期收益。

预测：一年后这两只股票的价值将超过 Palantir Technologies