<p>从七月到九月，<strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>(OPEN -3.66%) 的股票引发了一场投机狂潮。这场狂潮在房地产 iBuyer 宣布其联合创始人重返董事会以及任命新首席执行官后达到顶峰。从那时起，乐观情绪逐渐减退，导致了一轮新的亏损。</p>
<p>在短暂触及每股超过 10 美元的价格后，该股已回落至约 7.25 美元。</p>
<p>如果你还没有购买，考虑到情绪的突然变化，你可能会犹豫不决。然而，尽管最好是基于基本面投资这只股票，而不是预测投资者心理，但股票可能在几周内会有另一个大动作。</p>
<p>为什么？这与 Opendoor 下一个季度的财报发布有关，更重要的是，它最新的指导更新。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5NDUvaG9tZS1mb3Itc2FsZS1ob3VzaW5nLW1hcmtldC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5NDUvaG9tZS1mb3Itc2FsZS1ob3VzaW5nLW1hcmtldC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Opendoor：从 “火热” 到 “不热” 再到 “再次火热”</h2>
<p>Opendoor 利用技术进行大规模房屋翻转，在疫情期间的牛市中是一只热门故事股。该公司于 2020 年底通过与高知名度 SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）赞助商和科技融资者 Chamath Palihapitiya 的合并上市。</p>
<p>Opendoor 最初表现良好，但从 2021 年到 2025 年，股价崩溃，从 35 美元跌至不到 1 美元。这既是由于投机性成长股的受欢迎程度下降，也是由于房地产市场放缓导致 Opendoor 自身财务状况恶化。</p>
<p>然而，今年，该股大幅反弹，从夏季低点飙升 15 倍。一些公司特定的消息，例如联合创始人 Keith Rabois 和 Eric Wu 重新回归董事会，以及前 <strong>Shopify</strong> 首席运营官 Kaz Nejatian 被任命为首席执行官，促进了股价上涨，但网络迷因的热情无疑是主要推动力。</p>
<p>自称为 “$Open Army” 的一群网络迷因投资者，受到对冲基金经理 Eric Jackson 社交媒体帖子的强烈影响，对价格走势产生了更大的影响。这种情况至少在最近仍然成立，因为网络迷因交易者开始获利了结，甚至那些曾经坚定持有的投资者也对摇摇欲坠的牛市失去了信心。</p>
<h2>牛市前景高度不确定</h2>
<p>当我说 Opendoor 有一个 “摇摇欲坠的牛市前景” 时，我的意思是数字房屋翻转者的转型计划能否如预期那样成功存在很大的不确定性。首先，基于基本面或改善结果的股票进一步上涨取决于房地产市场是否会从冻结状态恢复到强劲状态。</p>
<p>然而，尽管美联储已经降低了利率，但是否会再次将其削减至接近零仍然值得怀疑。这些超低利率在 2020 年和 2021 年推动了房地产市场的需求。另一方面，即使只有部分房地产反弹，Opendoor 也可能有盈利的路径。</p>
<p>在最近的一次 CNBC 采访中，Opendoor 董事长 Rabois 讨论了公司需要将员工人数从 1400 人减少到仅 200 人的问题。如果这种激进的成本削减措施与房地产反弹的增长相结合，可能会导致 Opendoor 实现稳定的盈利。然而，也可能不会。请记住，在 2021 年房地产繁荣期间，Opendoor 报告了巨额的运营亏损。许多迹象表明，房屋翻转并不是一个经济上可行的商业模式。即使是基于数字化，它仍然是资本和劳动密集型的。</p>
<h2>可能会有大动作，但请谨慎行事</h2>
<p>目前，最好假设 Opendoor 的牛市前景仍然更多的是炒作而非实质。请谨慎对待这只股票。</p>
<p>该公司将在 11 月 6 日常规交易结束后公布财报。即使结果本身令人失望，财报发布中的任何积极方面，无论是指导更新还是新公司公告，都可能推动股价大幅上涨。想想关于成本削减计划的更多细节，或者关于 Opendoor 进入新业务领域的任何公告。</p>
<p>然而，另一方面，仍持有 Opendoor 的投资者可能会将财报视为最终退出的机会，在最新结果和更新中的任何负面因素上进行抛售。尽管股价可能会上涨，但在财报日后也可能会下跌。</p>

OPEN

<p>Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) 的股票表现波动剧烈，曾一度达到每股超过 10 美元，随后跌至约 7.25 美元。该公司即将于 11 月 6 日发布的季度财报可能会引发显著的股票波动，受指导更新和成本削减措施的影响。尽管近期有所上涨，但关于 Opendoor 的扭转计划和房地产市场复苏的不确定性依然存在。投资者被建议谨慎行事，因为财报可能导致股价上涨或进一步下跌</p>

<p>From July to September, there was a speculative frenzy surrounding shares in <strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>(OPEN -3.66%). This frenzy peaked not too long after the real estate iBuyer announced the return of its co-founders to its board, as well as the appointment of a new chief executive officer. Since then, bullishness has simmered down, leading to a new round of losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从七月到九月，<strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>(OPEN -3.66%) 的股票引发了一场投机狂潮。这场狂潮在房地产 iBuyer 宣布其联合创始人重返董事会以及任命新首席执行官后达到顶峰。从那时起，乐观情绪逐渐减退，导致了一轮新的亏损。</p>
</div><p>After briefly touching prices north of $10 per share, the stock has since fallen back to about $7.25.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短暂触及每股超过 10 美元的价格后，该股已回落至约 7.25 美元。</p>
</div><p>If you've yet to buy, you may be hesitant to hop in, given the sudden change in sentiment. However, while it may be best to invest in this stock on its fundamentals, not on predicting investor psychology, another big move for shares may be just weeks away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你还没有购买，考虑到情绪的突然变化，你可能会犹豫不决。然而，尽管最好是基于基本面投资这只股票，而不是预测投资者心理，但股票可能在几周内会有另一个大动作。</p>
</div><p>Why? It all has to do with Opendoor's next quarterly earnings release, and more importantly, its latest updates to guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为什么？这与 Opendoor 下一个季度的财报发布有关，更重要的是，它最新的指导更新。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5NDUvaG9tZS1mb3Itc2FsZS1ob3VzaW5nLW1hcmtldC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837945%2Fhome-for-sale-housing-market.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Opendoor: From &#34;hot&#34; to &#34;not&#34; to &#34;hot again&#34;</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Opendoor：从 “火热” 到 “不热” 再到 “再次火热”</h2>
</div><p>Opendoor, which utilizes technology to engage in large-scale house flipping, was a popular story stock during the pandemic-era bull market. The company went public in late 2020, via a merger with a SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) controlled by high-profile SPAC sponsor and tech financier Chamath Palihapitiya .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Opendoor 利用技术进行大规模房屋翻转，在疫情期间的牛市中是一只热门故事股。该公司于 2020 年底通过与高知名度 SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）赞助商和科技融资者 Chamath Palihapitiya 的合并上市。</p>
</div><p>Opendoor performed well initially, but from 2021 to 2025, the share price collapsed, falling from $35 to less than $1. This was due to both the decline in popularity of speculative growth stocks, and Opendoor's own worsening financials due to the housing market slowdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Opendoor 最初表现良好，但从 2021 年到 2025 年，股价崩溃，从 35 美元跌至不到 1 美元。这既是由于投机性成长股的受欢迎程度下降，也是由于房地产市场放缓导致 Opendoor 自身财务状况恶化。</p>
</div><p>This year, however, shares have bounced back in a big way, soaring 15-fold from their summer lows. Some company-specific news, such as the reappointment of co-founders Keith Rabois and Eric Wu to the board, plus the appointment of former <strong>Shopify</strong> Chief Operating Officer Kaz Nejatian to the CEO role, have contributed to gains, but meme enthusiasm has arguably been the main driver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，今年，该股大幅反弹，从夏季低点飙升 15 倍。一些公司特定的消息，例如联合创始人 Keith Rabois 和 Eric Wu 重新回归董事会，以及前 <strong>Shopify</strong> 首席运营官 Kaz Nejatian 被任命为首席执行官，促进了股价上涨，但网络迷因的热情无疑是主要推动力。</p>
</div><p>Calling themselves the &#34;$Open Army,&#34; a crowd of meme investors, heavily influenced by hedge fund manager Eric Jackson's social media postings, have had a greater influence on price action. This has held true at least until recently, as meme traders have started to take profit, and as even those previously holding with diamond hands lose faith in the shaky bull case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自称为 “$Open Army” 的一群网络迷因投资者，受到对冲基金经理 Eric Jackson 社交媒体帖子的强烈影响，对价格走势产生了更大的影响。这种情况至少在最近仍然成立，因为网络迷因交易者开始获利了结，甚至那些曾经坚定持有的投资者也对摇摇欲坠的牛市失去了信心。</p>
</div><h2>Bull case highly uncertain</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>牛市前景高度不确定</h2>
</div><p>When I say Opendoor has a &#34;shaky bull case,&#34; what I mean is that there is high uncertainty that the digital house-flipper's turnaround plan will pan out as expected. For one, a further rise for the stock based on fundamentals or improved results hinges on the housing market shifting back to robust from frozen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当我说 Opendoor 有一个 “摇摇欲坠的牛市前景” 时，我的意思是数字房屋翻转者的转型计划能否如预期那样成功存在很大的不确定性。首先，基于基本面或改善结果的股票进一步上涨取决于房地产市场是否会从冻结状态恢复到强劲状态。</p>
</div><p>Yet while the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates, it's questionable whether it will ever slash them again to near zero. Those rock-bottom rates played a major role in driving housing market demand in 2020 and 2021. On the other hand, there may be a path for Opendoor to become profitable, even if there's only a partial housing rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，尽管美联储已经降低了利率，但是否会再次将其削减至接近零仍然值得怀疑。这些超低利率在 2020 年和 2021 年推动了房地产市场的需求。另一方面，即使只有部分房地产反弹，Opendoor 也可能有盈利的路径。</p>
</div><p>In a recent CNBC interview, Opendoor Chairman Rabois discussed how the company needs to reduce its workforce by 85%, from 1,400 employees to just 200 employees. Such aggressive cost-cutting measures, if coupled with growth from a housing rebound, could lead to steady profitability for Opendoor. Then again, maybe not. Remember that, during the 2021 housing boom, Opendoor reported heavy operating losses. Much still suggests house-flipping isn't an economically viable business model. Even when digitally based, it remains both capital- and labor-intensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近的一次 CNBC 采访中，Opendoor 董事长 Rabois 讨论了公司需要将员工人数从 1400 人减少到仅 200 人的问题。如果这种激进的成本削减措施与房地产反弹的增长相结合，可能会导致 Opendoor 实现稳定的盈利。然而，也可能不会。请记住，在 2021 年房地产繁荣期间，Opendoor 报告了巨额的运营亏损。许多迹象表明，房屋翻转并不是一个经济上可行的商业模式。即使是基于数字化，它仍然是资本和劳动密集型的。</p>
</div><h2>A big move may lie ahead, but tread carefully</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>可能会有大动作，但请谨慎行事</h2>
</div><p>For now, it's best to assume that there's still more hype than substance to the Opendoor bull case. Tread carefully with this stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，最好假设 Opendoor 的牛市前景仍然更多的是炒作而非实质。请谨慎对待这只股票。</p>
</div><p>The company next announces earnings after the end of regular trading on Nov. 6. Even if the results themselves are underwhelming, any positive aspects in the earnings release, whether updates to guidance or new company announcements, could fuel a big move higher. Think more details about the cost-cutting plans, or any announcement regarding Opendoor's entry into a new line of business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司将在 11 月 6 日常规交易结束后公布财报。即使结果本身令人失望，财报发布中的任何积极方面，无论是指导更新还是新公司公告，都可能推动股价大幅上涨。想想关于成本削减计划的更多细节，或者关于 Opendoor 进入新业务领域的任何公告。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, however, those still holding Opendoor could view earnings as an opportunity to finally exit, selling on any negative aspect in the latest results and updates. While shares could rally higher, they could also sink lower after earnings day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，另一方面，仍持有 Opendoor 的投资者可能会将财报视为最终退出的机会，在最新结果和更新中的任何负面因素上进行抛售。尽管股价可能会上涨，但在财报日后也可能会下跌。</p>
</div>

Opendoor 股票的下一个重大变动即将在几周后到来