<h2><strong>关键要点</strong></h2>
<h3><em>比特币会迎来新的历史高点吗？</em></h3>
<p>可能会。如果重新积累持续，周期模型显示比特币可能在 $143K 到 $146K 之间见顶。</p>
<h3><em>为什么交易者在比特币供应持续下降的情况下做空？</em></h3>
<p>尽管期货市场上做空情况严重，但长期持有者正在积累，从交易所抽走比特币，可能会出现挤压的机会。</p>
<hr/>
<p>比特币 [BTC] 发出混合信号。</p>
<p>交易者正在对其做空，未平仓合约（OI）上升了 30%，而资金费率则深度负值。但长期持有者并没有出售。</p>
<p>自一月以来，比特币在交易所和场外交易市场的供应从 450 万下降到 310 万。尽管创下新高，人们仍在购买，一些分析师表示比特币在本周期可能达到 $143K 到 $146K。</p>
<h2><strong>杠杆加大，做空者涌入</strong></h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/uIYIIB_c8711729542a09ba7d4818ab5a1251fcb52a5b65097e4deb79a81e4546120621.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/uIYIIB_c8711729542a09ba7d4818ab5a1251fcb52a5b65097e4deb79a81e4546120621.webp"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>在过去一周，币安的未平仓合约（OI）上涨了超过 30%，成为近期最陡峭的攀升之一。同时，资金费率转为负值，表明做空头寸激增。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/h3XGT4zL4_e2a81f3c99c47ffd4406b2c2e9ab3753b9fae3efc63b607a3406a0848a159be4.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/h3XGT4zL4_e2a81f3c99c47ffd4406b2c2e9ab3753b9fae3efc63b607a3406a0848a159be4.webp"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>简单来说，交易者正在大量做空市场，预计价格会下跌。但通常，当资金变得如此悲观且杠杆加大时，往往会为做空挤压铺平道路。</p>
<p>这将迫使看空的交易者回补。</p>
<h2><strong>供应枯竭</strong></h2>
<p>比特币正在以快速的速度从交易所和场外交易市场消失：自 2024 年 1 月以来，供应从 450 万下降到仅 310 万枚。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/f4GiK_d85e74c8181edf6cd97c0cc9b438c86984a7037c7e8e7fbcf8dd2a2876daabde.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/f4GiK_d85e74c8181edf6cd97c0cc9b438c86984a7037c7e8e7fbcf8dd2a2876daabde.webp"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>这是一个巨大的变化。</p>
<p>矿工没有出售，长期持有者也不动，即使价格突破新高。与过去的周期不同，没人急于获利。相反，比特币正被转入冷钱包。</p>
<h2><strong>顶部在哪里？</strong></h2>
<p>根据 Alphractal 的首席执行官 Joao Wedson 的说法，比特币当前的价格走势仍然符合其长期周期结构。</p>
<p>如果比特币处于重新积累阶段，Wedson 预计本周期的顶部在 $143,700 到 $146,300 之间，这与历史周期的表现衰退一致。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/G3gy1zDWEAAjc6K-scaled.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/G3gy1zDWEAAjc6K-scaled.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：Alphractal</p>
<p>然而，如果最近的高点 $126K 标志着分配阶段，那么周期顶部可能已经到达。尽管如此，Wedson 指出，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“数据并没有表现出我们已经见顶……”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>时间将很快揭示哪种叙述会成为现实。</p>

GBTC

<p>分析师建议，比特币可能尚未达到峰值，如果重新积累持续，潜在高点在 143,000 美元到 146,000 美元之间。尽管空头头寸增加了 30% 且融资利率为负，但长期持有者（LTHs）正在积累比特币，自 1 月以来交易所的供应量从 450 万减少到 310 万。这可能导致空头挤压，因为交易者在对市场做空。首席执行官 Joao Wedson 表示，目前的价格波动与长期周期一致，但关于近期高点是否标志着分配阶段仍然存在不确定性</p>

<h2><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>关键要点</strong></h2>
</div><h3><em>Is Bitcoin headed for a new all-time high?</em></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><em>比特币会迎来新的历史高点吗？</em></h3>
</div><p>Possibly. Cycle models show BTC could top out between $143K and $146K if re-accumulation continues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能会。如果重新积累持续，周期模型显示比特币可能在 $143K 到 $146K 之间见顶。</p>
</div><h3><em>Why are traders shorting while Bitcoin supply keeps dropping?</em></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><em>为什么交易者在比特币供应持续下降的情况下做空？</em></h3>
</div><p>Despite heavy shorting in Futures, LTHs are accumulating, draining BTC from exchanges with the chance of a possible squeeze.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管期货市场上做空情况严重，但长期持有者正在积累，从交易所抽走比特币，可能会出现挤压的机会。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p>Bitcoin [BTC] is giving off mixed signals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币 [BTC] 发出混合信号。</p>
</div><p>Traders are betting against it, with Open Interest (OI) up 30% and Funding Rates deeply negative. But LTHs aren’t selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者正在对其做空，未平仓合约（OI）上升了 30%，而资金费率则深度负值。但长期持有者并没有出售。</p>
</div><p>Since January, BTC supply on exchanges and OTC desks has dropped from 4.5 million to 3.1 million. Despite new highs, people are still buying, and some analysts say Bitcoin could reach $143K to $146K this cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自一月以来，比特币在交易所和场外交易市场的供应从 450 万下降到 310 万。尽管创下新高，人们仍在购买，一些分析师表示比特币在本周期可能达到 $143K 到 $146K。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Leverage ramps up as shorts crowd in</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>杠杆加大，做空者涌入</strong></h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/uIYIIB_c8711729542a09ba7d4818ab5a1251fcb52a5b65097e4deb79a81e4546120621.webp" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/uIYIIB_c8711729542a09ba7d4818ab5a1251fcb52a5b65097e4deb79a81e4546120621.webp"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>Over the past week, OI on Binance jumped by more than 30%, making it one of the steepest climbs in recent months. At the same time, Funding Rates turned negative, indicating a surge in short positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一周，币安的未平仓合约（OI）上涨了超过 30%，成为近期最陡峭的攀升之一。同时，资金费率转为负值，表明做空头寸激增。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/h3XGT4zL4_e2a81f3c99c47ffd4406b2c2e9ab3753b9fae3efc63b607a3406a0848a159be4.webp" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/h3XGT4zL4_e2a81f3c99c47ffd4406b2c2e9ab3753b9fae3efc63b607a3406a0848a159be4.webp"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>In simple terms, traders are heavily betting against the market, expecting prices to fall. But usually, when funding gets this bearish and leverage piles in, it often makes way for a short squeeze.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单来说，交易者正在大量做空市场，预计价格会下跌。但通常，当资金变得如此悲观且杠杆加大时，往往会为做空挤压铺平道路。</p>
</div><p>This would force bearish traders to buy back in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这将迫使看空的交易者回补。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Supply dries up</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>供应枯竭</strong></h2>
</div><p>BTC is vanishing from exchanges and OTC desks at a rapid pace: supply has dropped from 4.5 million to just 3.1 million coins since January 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币正在以快速的速度从交易所和场外交易市场消失：自 2024 年 1 月以来，供应从 450 万下降到仅 310 万枚。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/f4GiK_d85e74c8181edf6cd97c0cc9b438c86984a7037c7e8e7fbcf8dd2a2876daabde.webp" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/f4GiK_d85e74c8181edf6cd97c0cc9b438c86984a7037c7e8e7fbcf8dd2a2876daabde.webp"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>That’s a big shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个巨大的变化。</p>
</div><p>Miners aren’t selling, and LTHs won’t budge, even as prices break into new highs. Unlike past cycles, there’s no rush to take profits. Instead, BTC is being pulled into cold storage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>矿工没有出售，长期持有者也不动，即使价格突破新高。与过去的周期不同，没人急于获利。相反，比特币正被转入冷钱包。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Where’s the top?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>顶部在哪里？</strong></h2>
</div><p>According to Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, Bitcoin’s current price action still fits within its long-term cycle structure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Alphractal 的首席执行官 Joao Wedson 的说法，比特币当前的价格走势仍然符合其长期周期结构。</p>
</div><p>If BTC is in a re-accumulation phase, Wedson projects the top of this cycle between $143,700 and $146,300, consistent with historical performance decay across previous cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果比特币处于重新积累阶段，Wedson 预计本周期的顶部在 $143,700 到 $146,300 之间，这与历史周期的表现衰退一致。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/G3gy1zDWEAAjc6K-scaled.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/G3gy1zDWEAAjc6K-scaled.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Alphractal</p>
</div><p>However, if recent highs around $126K marked a distribution phase, the cycle top may already be in. Still, Wedson notes that,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果最近的高点 $126K 标志着分配阶段，那么周期顶部可能已经到达。尽管如此，Wedson 指出，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“The data isn’t acting like we’ve topped…”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“数据并没有表现出我们已经见顶……”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Time will soon tell which narrative plays out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>时间将很快揭示哪种叙述会成为现实。</p>
</div>

比特币是否已经达到顶峰？分析师称 ‘尚未’——以下是原因