<p><strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 在今年春季经历了一些艰难时刻，因为投资者担心唐纳德·特朗普总统对进口商品征收关税的影响。然而，随着关税谈判的进行以及公司在关税环境中展现出的韧性，投资者的担忧减轻，基准指数恢复了帮助其实现连续两年增长的积极势头。如今，在创下历史新高后，标普 500 指数今年的涨幅已达到 13%。</p>
<p>这主要得益于包括人工智能（AI）和科技股在内的成长型公司股票，投资者对降低利率和强劲企业盈利的乐观情绪推动了这一增长。联邦储备委员会在九月份降息，并表示在年底前还将再降两次。根据 <strong>黑岩集团</strong> 的数据，在第二季度，约 80% 的公司超出了分析师对收入和利润的预期。</p>
<p>在这样一个光明的背景下，两位市场专家却向华尔街发出了同样的严峻警告。我所说的是联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和亿万富翁投资者沃伦·巴菲特。历史清晰地描绘了未来的趋势。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTIxMzUxMzU0NC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTIxMzUxMzU0NC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>所有目光都在鲍威尔身上</h2>
<p>首先，值得注意的是，最近几个月，所有目光都集中在鲍威尔身上，因为投资者在等待九月份的利率决定以及美联储主席对经济的总体看法。投资者希望降息，并期待更多降息，因为较低的借贷成本使公司更容易借款和扩张，而较低的利率也有利于消费者支出。这一切对公司的盈利以及因此而来的股票表现都是积极的。</p>
<p>与此同时，所有目光始终聚焦在巴菲特身上，因为他在长期投资中的成功。他带领 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong> 在近 60 年里实现了超越市场的回报，这得益于他识别优质股票、以合理价格买入并耐心等待其上涨的能力。</p>
<p>那么，巴菲特和鲍威尔最近传达了什么信息呢？巴菲特的信息通过一个简单的行动传达出来：将现金储备提升到创纪录的水平。现在他的现金储备为 3440 亿美元，几个月前曾超过 3470 亿美元。这表明巴菲特更倾向于将现金留存而不是购买股票，当他这样做时，意味着他没有看到许多有趣的购买机会。现在，这并不意味着今天的公司经营状况糟糕。它只是表明这些公司的交易水平过于昂贵。</p>
<p>鲍威尔最近的话也支持了这一点。在上个月底的一次演讲中，美联储主席表示：“股票价格相对较高。” 他缓和了这一说法，表示目前金融稳定风险并不高。但底线是，投资者应该关注的是，当前股票看起来价格昂贵。</p>
<h2>Shiller CAPE 比率</h2>
<p>为了说明巴菲特和鲍威尔的警告，我们可以看看标普 500 的 Shiller 周期性调整市盈率（CAPE）比率。这个指标考虑了 10 年期间的价格和每股收益。它是一个可靠的衡量标准，因为通过覆盖多年的时间段，它考虑了经济环境的波动。</p>
<p>标普 500 的 Shiller CAPE 比率已达到 36，这是历史上仅有两次超过的水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3128a6a017c58bd5c9fd84a8eba315cf.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3128a6a017c58bd5c9fd84a8eba315cf.png"/></p>
<p>标普 500 Shiller CAPE 比率数据来源于 YCharts。CAPE 比率 = 周期性调整市盈率。</p>
<p>历史清晰地描绘了未来的趋势。在过去，达到这样的水平后，标普 500 指数通常会出现下跌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ccd7edfff970fdaaa1e47b724ffb3225.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ccd7edfff970fdaaa1e47b724ffb3225.png"/></p>
<p>标普 500 Shiller CAPE 比率数据来源于 YCharts。CAPE 比率 = 周期性调整市盈率。</p>
<p>这对你作为投资者意味着什么？虽然无法准确预测下跌何时发生，但市场从来不会永远以直线方式上涨或下跌。涨跌周期是正常市场周期的一部分。因此，标普 500 指数在某个时刻会下跌，但好消息是，历史也告诉我们，它会反弹并继续上涨。</p>
<p>因此，投资者应该在市场周期中继续购买股票，但仅在合理价格下。如今，整体股市可能昂贵，但你仍然可以找到个别股票以可接受甚至低廉的价格交易。鲍威尔和巴菲特的警告响亮而清晰，但如果你明智地挑选股票，你可以在任何市场环境中获胜。</p>

标普 500 指数

<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和亿万富翁投资者沃伦·巴菲特对当前股市状态发出了警告，指出股票价格被高度估值。尽管标准普尔 500 指数今年上涨了 13%，表现强劲，巴菲特却积累了 3440 亿美元的现金储备，暗示缺乏有吸引力的买入机会。鲍威尔也表达了类似的观点，指出股票看起来价格昂贵。标准普尔 500 指数的 Shiller CAPE 比率已达到 36，历史上通常预示着潜在的下跌。投资者被建议在合理价格下买入股票，尽管当前市场状况不佳</p>

<p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index went through some tough times this spring as investors worried about the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs on imports. However, as negotiations on tariffs happened and companies showed their resilience in a tariff environment, investors' concerns lessened, and the benchmark recovered the positive momentum that helped it score two consecutive years of gains. And today, after reaching record highs, the S&amp;P 500 is heading for an increase of 13% this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 在今年春季经历了一些艰难时刻，因为投资者担心唐纳德·特朗普总统对进口商品征收关税的影响。然而，随着关税谈判的进行以及公司在关税环境中展现出的韧性，投资者的担忧减轻，基准指数恢复了帮助其实现连续两年增长的积极势头。如今，在创下历史新高后，标普 500 指数今年的涨幅已达到 13%。</p>
</div><p>This is led by growth company stocks, including artificial intelligence (AI) and tech stocks, amid optimism about lower interest rates and strong corporate earnings. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September and indicated two more would come before the year's end. As for earnings, in the second quarter, about 80% of companies beat analysts' revenue and profit estimates, according to <strong>BlackRock</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这主要得益于包括人工智能（AI）和科技股在内的成长型公司股票，投资者对降低利率和强劲企业盈利的乐观情绪推动了这一增长。联邦储备委员会在九月份降息，并表示在年底前还将再降两次。根据 <strong>黑岩集团</strong> 的数据，在第二季度，约 80% 的公司超出了分析师对收入和利润的预期。</p>
</div><p>Against this bright backdrop, though, two market experts have delivered the same dire warning to Wall Street. I'm talking about Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and billionaire investor Warren Buffett. And history paints a compellingly clear picture of what's to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这样一个光明的背景下，两位市场专家却向华尔街发出了同样的严峻警告。我所说的是联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和亿万富翁投资者沃伦·巴菲特。历史清晰地描绘了未来的趋势。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTIxMzUxMzU0NC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F838266%2Fgettyimages-1213513544.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>All eyes on Powell</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>所有目光都在鲍威尔身上</h2>
</div><p>First, it's important to note that all eyes were on Powell in recent months as investors waited for the September interest rate decision and the Fed chair's general views on the economy. Investors hoped for a rate cut, and more to come, as lower borrowing costs make it easier for companies to borrow and expand -- and lower rates also favor consumer spending. All of this is positive for companies' earnings and, therefore, their stock performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，值得注意的是，最近几个月，所有目光都集中在鲍威尔身上，因为投资者在等待九月份的利率决定以及美联储主席对经济的总体看法。投资者希望降息，并期待更多降息，因为较低的借贷成本使公司更容易借款和扩张，而较低的利率也有利于消费者支出。这一切对公司的盈利以及因此而来的股票表现都是积极的。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, all eyes are <em>always</em> on Buffett thanks to his investing successes over the long term. He's led <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> to market-beating returns for almost 60 years thanks to his ability to identify quality stocks, get in on them at reasonable prices, and patiently wait for them to take off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，所有目光始终聚焦在巴菲特身上，因为他在长期投资中的成功。他带领 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong> 在近 60 年里实现了超越市场的回报，这得益于他识别优质股票、以合理价格买入并耐心等待其上涨的能力。</p>
</div><p>So, what message have Buffett and Powell both delivered in recent times? Buffett's message came through one simple action: building up his cash pile to record levels. It's now at $344 billion after reaching more than $347 billion a few months ago. This shows that Buffett has favored setting cash aside over buying stocks, and when he does this, it means he doesn't see many interesting buying opportunities. Now, this doesn't imply that today's companies have terrible businesses. It just suggests they are trading at levels that are too expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，巴菲特和鲍威尔最近传达了什么信息呢？巴菲特的信息通过一个简单的行动传达出来：将现金储备提升到创纪录的水平。现在他的现金储备为 3440 亿美元，几个月前曾超过 3470 亿美元。这表明巴菲特更倾向于将现金留存而不是购买股票，当他这样做时，意味着他没有看到许多有趣的购买机会。现在，这并不意味着今天的公司经营状况糟糕。它只是表明这些公司的交易水平过于昂贵。</p>
</div><p>Powell's recent words support this. In a speech late last month, the Fed chair said, &#34;Equity prices are fairly highly valued.&#34; He tempered this by saying financial stability risks aren't high right now. But the bottom line, and what should be of concern to investors, is that stocks are looking pricey these days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔最近的话也支持了这一点。在上个月底的一次演讲中，美联储主席表示：“股票价格相对较高。” 他缓和了这一说法，表示目前金融稳定风险并不高。但底线是，投资者应该关注的是，当前股票看起来价格昂贵。</p>
</div><h2>The Shiller CAPE ratio</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Shiller CAPE 比率</h2>
</div><p>And to illustrate these warnings from Buffett and Powell, we can look at the S&amp;P 500 Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. This metric considers prices and earnings per share over a 10-year period. It's a reliable measure because, by covering a period of years, it accounts for fluctuations in the economic environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了说明巴菲特和鲍威尔的警告，我们可以看看标普 500 的 Shiller 周期性调整市盈率（CAPE）比率。这个指标考虑了 10 年期间的价格和每股收益。它是一个可靠的衡量标准，因为通过覆盖多年的时间段，它考虑了经济环境的波动。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio has reached 36, a level it has surpassed only twice before throughout history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标普 500 的 Shiller CAPE 比率已达到 36，这是历史上仅有两次超过的水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3128a6a017c58bd5c9fd84a8eba315cf.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3128a6a017c58bd5c9fd84a8eba315cf.png"/></p>
<p>S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts. CAPE Ratio = cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标普 500 Shiller CAPE 比率数据来源于 YCharts。CAPE 比率 = 周期性调整市盈率。</p>
</div><p>And history paints a clear picture of what's ahead. In the past, after reaching such levels, declines in the S&amp;P 500 followed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史清晰地描绘了未来的趋势。在过去，达到这样的水平后，标普 500 指数通常会出现下跌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ccd7edfff970fdaaa1e47b724ffb3225.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ccd7edfff970fdaaa1e47b724ffb3225.png"/></p>
<p>S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts. CAPE Ratio = cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标普 500 Shiller CAPE 比率数据来源于 YCharts。CAPE 比率 = 周期性调整市盈率。</p>
</div><p>What does this mean for you as an investor right now? It's impossible to predict exactly when declines will happen, but the market never rises or falls in a straight line forever. Periods of gains and losses are part of normal market cycles. So, the S&amp;P 500 will fall at some point, but the good news is, as history also shows us, it will rebound and go on to gain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对你作为投资者意味着什么？虽然无法准确预测下跌何时发生，但市场从来不会永远以直线方式上涨或下跌。涨跌周期是正常市场周期的一部分。因此，标普 500 指数在某个时刻会下跌，但好消息是，历史也告诉我们，它会反弹并继续上涨。</p>
</div><p>So, investors should continue to buy stocks throughout market cycles -- but only at reasonable prices. Today, the stock market as a whole may be expensive, but you can still find individual stocks that trade for acceptable or even low prices. The warnings from Powell and Buffett are ringing out loud and clear, but if you shop wisely for stocks, you can win during any market environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，投资者应该在市场周期中继续购买股票，但仅在合理价格下。如今，整体股市可能昂贵，但你仍然可以找到个别股票以可接受甚至低廉的价格交易。鲍威尔和巴菲特的警告响亮而清晰，但如果你明智地挑选股票，你可以在任何市场环境中获胜。</p>
</div>

Fed Chief Jerome Powell and Billionaire Investor Warren Buffett Just Delivered the Same Dire Warning to Wall Street. History Paints a Compellingly Clear Picture of What Happens Next.

- 标普 500 指数在春季经历波动，因投资者担忧关税影响。  
- 目前该指数上涨 13%，受科技股和 AI 股推动。  
- 然而，巴菲特和鲍威尔警告股票价格过高，需谨慎投资。

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和亿万富翁投资者沃伦·巴菲特刚刚向华尔街发出了同样的严峻警告。历史清晰地展示了接下来可能发生的情况