<p>大多数现代投资者，可能大多数人都知道沃伦·巴菲特，<strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 的首席执行官。但更少人知道帮助训练他的本杰明·格雷厄姆。然而，现在是思考价值投资者格雷厄姆对沃伦·巴菲特投资方法最显著贡献之一的好时机。这对伯克希尔哈撒韦产生了 3440 亿美元的影响。</p>
<h2>沃伦·巴菲特的投资方式</h2>
<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦最好被描述为一个令人惊讶的多元化企业集团。该公司完全拥有 189 家公司，并且还拥有大量公开交易的股票组合。事实上，伯克希尔哈撒韦根本不是一家普通公司——它更像是沃伦·巴菲特的投资工具。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY2MTEvMjRfMDFfMDgtd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtX2ltYWdlLXNvdXJjZS1tb3RsZXktZm9vbC1tZi1kbG9hZC1fYnVmZmV0dDExLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY2MTEvMjRfMDFfMDgtd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtX2ltYWdlLXNvdXJjZS1tb3RsZXktZm9vbC1tZi1kbG9hZC1fYnVmZmV0dDExLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Motley Fool。</p>
<p>巴菲特的投资方法看似简单。他喜欢在价格吸引时购买优秀公司，然后长期持有。这个方法的每个部分都很重要，但今天有一个部分特别突出。巴菲特不追逐股票——他等待 “市场先生” 变得不理性，提供难以拒绝的交易。</p>
<p>“市场先生” 是本杰明·格雷厄姆的构想，他是一位价值投资者。格雷厄姆用市场先生来强调投资者可以，也确实经常会，错误定价股票，无论是向上还是向下。投资者应该试图判断一家公司的长期价值是否相对于市场先生所给予的股票价格是值得的。支付过高，即使是最好的公司也可能导致你的经纪账户出现亏损。</p>
<p>巴菲特长期以来一直将格雷厄姆的价值关注铭记于心，尽管他随着时间的推移对价值的关注有所减弱。不过，如果他找不到值得购买的东西，巴菲特就会选择持有现金并等待。相反，他会考虑出售市场可能过于热衷购买的股票，即使这意味着让销售所得以现金和短期投资（例如国债）的形式留在资产负债表上。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/dafcd74e201ee3bb5656ad9c4bc846ac.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/dafcd74e201ee3bb5656ad9c4bc846ac.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.A 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<h2>你需要考虑的 3440 亿美元警告</h2>
<p>在过去的几年里，巴菲特一直在发掘他内心的格雷厄姆。他一直在出售股票，并且随着 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 0.53%) 接近历史最高点，他没有选择进行任何重大投资。截至 2025 年第二季度末，结果是资产负债表上有一个巨大的 3440 亿美元现金储备。</p>
<p>这对公司的财务表现造成了拖累。当然，利率上升使得现金能够赚取利息收入，考虑到现金的总额，这加起来是一个可观的数字（伯克希尔哈撒韦在第二季度产生了大约 60 亿美元的利息和股息收入）。但考虑到伯克希尔哈撒韦作为一家企业的业绩，巴菲特可能通过良好的投资获得更高的回报。</p>
<p>最终，巴菲特找不到他想买的东西是个大问题。好吧，几乎如此。正当他计划辞去伯克希尔哈撒韦首席执行官职务（他将继续担任董事会主席）时，巴菲特同意以约 100 亿美元收购 <strong>西方石油</strong> 的化工业务。化工行业目前不受欢迎，因此他可能得到了一个便宜的交易。</p>
<p>事情是这样的。虽然 Oxy 交易在规模上是重要的，但它代表了截至第二季度伯克希尔哈撒韦资产负债表上现金的不到 3%。简单来说，巴菲特找到了一笔交易，但他仍然没有找到足够好的交易来投入大量现金。</p>
<h2>你不应该忽视的警告</h2>
<p>巴菲特并没有停止投资，你可能也不应该停止。但他非常挑剔，你也应该同样挑剔。所有这些现金是一个警告，表明今天市场价格昂贵。这一点在标准普尔 500 指数的高位上得到了强调，但考虑到最近热门趋势如人工智能和迷因股票，过度现象更为广泛。</p>
<p>如果你关注巴菲特，请注意他的行动所发出的警告。当你做出投资决策时，可能是时候更加谨慎而不是激进。本杰明·格雷厄姆可能也会告诉你同样的事情。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

西方石油

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

<p>沃伦·巴菲特，伯克希尔哈撒韦的首席执行官，向投资者发出了重要警告，表示其拥有的 3440 亿美元现金储备显示出缺乏有吸引力的投资机会。遵循其导师本杰明·格雷厄姆的原则，巴菲特一直在出售股票并持有现金，反映出他对市场高估值的担忧，尤其是在标准普尔 500 指数接近历史高点的情况下。他最近以 100 亿美元收购西方石油的化工业务，这一罕见的投资表明，在当前市场环境下，投资者应采取谨慎的态度</p>

<p>Most modern investors, and probably most people in general, know about Warren Buffett, the CEO of <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A 0.77%) (BRK.B 0.78%). But fewer people know the man who helped to train him, Benjamin Graham. Right now, however, is a good time to think about one of value investor Graham's most prominent contributions to Warren Buffett's investment approach. It has had a $344 billion effect on Berkshire Hathaway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数现代投资者，可能大多数人都知道沃伦·巴菲特，<strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 的首席执行官。但更少人知道帮助训练他的本杰明·格雷厄姆。然而，现在是思考价值投资者格雷厄姆对沃伦·巴菲特投资方法最显著贡献之一的好时机。这对伯克希尔哈撒韦产生了 3440 亿美元的影响。</p>
</div><h2>The Warren Buffett way</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>沃伦·巴菲特的投资方式</h2>
</div><p>Berkshire Hathaway is best described as a surprisingly diversified conglomerate. The company owns 189 companies outright, and it also has a large portfolio of publicly traded stocks. The truth is that Berkshire Hathaway isn't a normal company at all -- it is best seen as the investment vehicle of Warren Buffett.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦最好被描述为一个令人惊讶的多元化企业集团。该公司完全拥有 189 家公司，并且还拥有大量公开交易的股票组合。事实上，伯克希尔哈撒韦根本不是一家普通公司——它更像是沃伦·巴菲特的投资工具。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY2MTEvMjRfMDFfMDgtd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtX2ltYWdlLXNvdXJjZS1tb3RsZXktZm9vbC1tZi1kbG9hZC1fYnVmZmV0dDExLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F836611%2F24_01_08-warren-buffett-_image-source-motley-fool-mf-dload-_buffett11-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Motley Fool。</p>
</div><p>Buffett's investment approach is deceptively simple. He likes to buy good companies when they are attractively priced, and then hold them for the long term. Each part of that approach is important, but one stands out today in an important way. Buffett doesn't chase stocks -- he waits for &#34;Mr. Market&#34; to get irrational and offer up deals that are hard to refuse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特的投资方法看似简单。他喜欢在价格吸引时购买优秀公司，然后长期持有。这个方法的每个部分都很重要，但今天有一个部分特别突出。巴菲特不追逐股票——他等待 “市场先生” 变得不理性，提供难以拒绝的交易。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Mr. Market&#34; is the construct of Benjamin Graham, who was a value investor. Graham used Mr. Market to highlight that investors can, and do quite frequently, missprice stocks to the upside and the downside. Investors are supposed to try to figure out if the long-term value of a business is worthwhile relative to the price the stock is being afforded by Mr. Market. Pay too much, and even the best company can end up leading to losses in your brokerage account.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“市场先生” 是本杰明·格雷厄姆的构想，他是一位价值投资者。格雷厄姆用市场先生来强调投资者可以，也确实经常会，错误定价股票，无论是向上还是向下。投资者应该试图判断一家公司的长期价值是否相对于市场先生所给予的股票价格是值得的。支付过高，即使是最好的公司也可能导致你的经纪账户出现亏损。</p>
</div><p>Buffett has long taken Graham's value focus to heart, though he has softened his value focus over time. Still, if he can't find something worth buying, Buffett will just sit on cash and wait. Conversely, he will consider selling stocks that the market may be overeager to buy, even if that means letting the sale proceeds sit on the balance sheet in the form of cash and short-term investments (Treasury bills, for example).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特长期以来一直将格雷厄姆的价值关注铭记于心，尽管他随着时间的推移对价值的关注有所减弱。不过，如果他找不到值得购买的东西，巴菲特就会选择持有现金并等待。相反，他会考虑出售市场可能过于热衷购买的股票，即使这意味着让销售所得以现金和短期投资（例如国债）的形式留在资产负债表上。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/dafcd74e201ee3bb5656ad9c4bc846ac.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/dafcd74e201ee3bb5656ad9c4bc846ac.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.A data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BRK.A 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>The $344 billion warning you'll want to think about</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你需要考虑的 3440 亿美元警告</h2>
</div><p>Over the last couple of years, Buffett has been channeling his inner Graham. He has been selling stocks, and with the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.53%) near all-time highs, he hasn't chosen to make any significant investments. As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the outcome is a massive $344 billion cash hoard sitting on the balance sheet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的几年里，巴菲特一直在发掘他内心的格雷厄姆。他一直在出售股票，并且随着 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 0.53%) 接近历史最高点，他没有选择进行任何重大投资。截至 2025 年第二季度末，结果是资产负债表上有一个巨大的 3440 亿美元现金储备。</p>
</div><p>That's a drag on the company's financial performance. Sure, interest rates have risen so that cash is earning interest income that, given the total sum on cash, adds up to a material figure (Berkshire Hathaway generated roughly $6 billion in interest and dividend income in Q2). But Buffett could probably achieve higher returns with a good investment, given Berkshire Hathaway's track record as a business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对公司的财务表现造成了拖累。当然，利率上升使得现金能够赚取利息收入，考虑到现金的总额，这加起来是一个可观的数字（伯克希尔哈撒韦在第二季度产生了大约 60 亿美元的利息和股息收入）。但考虑到伯克希尔哈撒韦作为一家企业的业绩，巴菲特可能通过良好的投资获得更高的回报。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, it's a big deal that Buffett can't find anything he wants to buy. Well, almost. Just as he's planning to step down as Berkshire Hathaway CEO (he's going to remain the chairman of the board of directors), Buffett has agreed to pay around $10 billion for <strong>Occidental Petroleum</strong>'s (OXY -0.30%) chemicals business. The chemicals sector is out of favor right now, so he probably got a bargain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，巴菲特找不到他想买的东西是个大问题。好吧，几乎如此。正当他计划辞去伯克希尔哈撒韦首席执行官职务（他将继续担任董事会主席）时，巴菲特同意以约 100 亿美元收购 <strong>西方石油</strong> 的化工业务。化工行业目前不受欢迎，因此他可能得到了一个便宜的交易。</p>
</div><p>Here's the thing. While the Oxy deal is material in size, it represents less than 3% of the cash on Berkshire Hathaway's balance sheet at the end of Q2. Simply put, Buffett found a deal, but he's still not finding enough good deals to put a lot of cash to work.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事情是这样的。虽然 Oxy 交易在规模上是重要的，但它代表了截至第二季度伯克希尔哈撒韦资产负债表上现金的不到 3%。简单来说，巴菲特找到了一笔交易，但他仍然没有找到足够好的交易来投入大量现金。</p>
</div><h2>The warning you shouldn't ignore</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你不应该忽视的警告</h2>
</div><p>Buffett hasn't stopped investing, and you probably shouldn't either. But he is being highly selective, and you should probably be just as selective, too. All of that cash is a warning that the market is expensive today. That's highlighted by the lofty levels of the S&amp;P 500 index, but the excesses are broader than that, considering recent hot trends like AI and meme stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特并没有停止投资，你可能也不应该停止。但他非常挑剔，你也应该同样挑剔。所有这些现金是一个警告，表明今天市场价格昂贵。这一点在标准普尔 500 指数的高位上得到了强调，但考虑到最近热门趋势如人工智能和迷因股票，过度现象更为广泛。</p>
</div><p>If you follow Buffett, pay attention to the warning that his actions are giving. It's probably a time to be more cautious than aggressive when you make your investment decisions. Benjamin Graham would likely tell you the same thing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你关注巴菲特，请注意他的行动所发出的警告。当你做出投资决策时，可能是时候更加谨慎而不是激进。本杰明·格雷厄姆可能也会告诉你同样的事情。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett's $344 Billion Warning to Wall Street Has Become Deafening

- 巴菲特的投资策略受本杰明·格雷厄姆影响，强调价值投资。  
- 目前，巴菲特持有 3440 亿美元现金，反映市场高估。  
- 投资者应谨慎，市场可能存在泡沫风险。  

沃伦·巴菲特对华尔街的 3440 亿美元警告已经变得震耳欲聋