<p>距离 2025 年结束还有大约 10 周的时间，华尔街似乎又将迎来一个辉煌的年份，而人工智能（AI）的发展是一个重要原因。</p>
<p>赋予软件和系统 AI 能力使它们能够在没有人类干预的情况下做出瞬间决策，并在分配的任务中变得更加高效。这是一项改变游戏规则的技术，普华永道的分析师认为，到本世纪末，它可以为全球经济增加 15.7 万亿美元。</p>
<p>尽管数十家上市公司从 AI 革命中受益，但没有一家能像 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.78%) 和 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 0.02%) 那样在华尔街的舞台上占据一席之地。自 2022 年结束以来，Nvidia 的股价飙升超过 1100%，市值增加超过 4 万亿美元。与此同时，截至 2025 年 10 月 16 日收盘，Palantir 的股价接近 2700% 的累计涨幅。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg0MzYvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg0MzYvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>虽然有一长串理由可以解释我们在这两家公司所见证的惊人涨幅，但这个动态的 AI 双雄也向华尔街发出了一个不容忽视的明确警告。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 和 Palantir 的成功源于其可持续的护城河</h2>
<p>投资者对可持续护城河的商业特征尤为看重。拥有卓越技术、生产方法或平台的公司不必担心竞争对手抢走他们的客户。</p>
<p>Nvidia 以其世界领先的图形处理单元（GPU）而闻名，这些 GPU 是企业 AI 加速数据中心的 “大脑”。尽管估计有所不同，但 Nvidia 被认为控制着目前在企业数据中心部署的 90% 或更多的 AI-GPU。</p>
<p>在计算能力方面，没有外部 GPU 开发者能够接近 Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）、Blackwell 或 Blackwell Ultra 芯片。随着首席执行官黄仁勋计划在 2026 年下半年和 2027 年发布一款新的先进 AI 芯片，Nvidia 似乎不太可能在短期内放弃其 AI-GPU 数据中心的市场份额。</p>
<p>更重要的是，Nvidia 的 CUDA 软件平台作为一个无名英雄发挥了重要作用。这是开发者用来构建和训练大型语言模型的工具包，同时最大化其 Nvidia 硬件的计算能力。该软件的价值体现在 Nvidia 能够将客户留在其产品和服务生态系统内。</p>
<p>与此同时，Palantir 的运营模式之美在于，没有其他公司能够在规模上匹配其两个核心的 AI 和机器学习平台。</p>
<p>Gotham 是 Palantir 真正的盈利支柱。这个软件即服务平台被美国政府及其主要盟友用于规划和监督军事任务，以及收集和分析数据。另一个核心平台是 Foundry，这是一个面向希望理解数据并自动化某些操作以提高效率的企业的订阅服务。</p>
<p>Palantir 的政府合同支持了 25% 或以上的持续年销售增长率，并在推动公司提前实现持续盈利方面发挥了关键作用，远超华尔街的共识预测。</p>
<p>然而，尽管这些竞争优势非常明确，这对受 AI 启发的动态双雄仍然向华尔街和投资者发出了严峻的警告。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg0MzYvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItaW52ZXN0LWJ1eS1zZWxsLW9wdGlvbnMtc3RvY2stZXhjaGFuZ2UtZ2V0dHkucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg0MzYvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItaW52ZXN0LWJ1eS1zZWxsLW9wdGlvbnMtc3RvY2stZXhjaGFuZ2UtZ2V0dHkucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 和 Palantir 的内部人士向华尔街发出了明确的信息</h2>
<p>尽管在过去三年中，AI 一直是最热门的技术，但它并非没有阻力。</p>
<p>例如，自互联网诞生以来的每一项新技术和炒作创新都经历过早期泡沫破裂事件。这意味着所有新技术都需要时间来成熟，而这种成熟的证据并不完全体现在投资 AI 解决方案的公司身上。</p>
<p>但或许最令人震惊的信息来自 Nvidia 和 Palantir Technologies 的内部人士。</p>
<p>“内部人士” 是指高层员工、董事会成员或持有公司至少 10% 流通股的受益所有者。这些人可能拥有非公开信息，并比华尔街或主街上的任何人更了解他们的公司。</p>
<p>上市公司的内部人士必须对其交易活动保持透明。在交易后不超过两个工作日内——购买或出售公司股票，或行使期权——内部人士必须向证券交易委员会提交 Form 4。这些文件讲述了这两只高飞 AI 股票的故事。</p>
<p>在过去五年中，内部人士的净卖出活动如下：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Nvidia：</strong> 净卖出股份 53.42 亿美元</li>
<li><strong>Palantir：</strong> 净卖出股份 71.78 亿美元</li>
</ul>
<p>换句话说，AI 领域两只最热门股票的内部人士，自 2020 年 10 月 16 日以来，集体卖出了 125 亿美元的自家股票，而购买的股票却少之又少。</p>
<p>需要注意的是，这些公开报告的数据的前提是，大多数上市公司的高管和董事会成员以普通股和/或期权的形式获得薪酬。为了支付与其薪酬相关的联邦和/或州税负，公司内部人士通常会出售股票。简而言之，内部人士选择退出的原因并不一定是坏消息。</p>
<p>对于英伟达和 Palantir Technologies 来说，更加显著的是我们观察到的内部人士完全没有买入股票。根据 Form 4 的备案，英伟达的高管或董事会成员最后一次购买股票是在 2020 年 12 月初。与此同时，自 2020 年 9 月底公司上市以来，Palantir 仅有一位高管或董事会成员进行了购买。</p>
<p>根据市销率（P/S）来看，英伟达和 Palantir Technologies 都不是便宜的股票。在过去 12 个月中，英伟达和 Palantir 的市销率分别为 27 和 131。历史告诉我们，这两个数字在较长时间内是不可持续的。</p>
<p>如果这两家公司的内部人士都不愿意购买自己公司的股票，普通投资者又为什么要买呢？</p>

PLTR

英伟达

<p>尽管英伟达和 Palantir 的股票表现出色，英伟达的股价自 2022 年以来上涨超过 1,100%，而 Palantir 的股价几乎上涨了 2,700%，但两家公司仍向华尔街发出了警告。两家公司在人工智能技术方面拥有可持续的竞争优势，英伟达在 AI-GPU 市场占据主导地位，而 Palantir 在政府合同方面表现出色。然而，内部人士的抛售活动引发了对其增长可持续性的担忧，这表明随着人工智能行业的成熟，可能会面临潜在的逆风</p>

<p>With roughly 10 weeks to go before 2025 comes to a close, it looks as if it'll be another banner year on Wall Street -- and the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) is a <em>big</em> reason why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>距离 2025 年结束还有大约 10 周的时间，华尔街似乎又将迎来一个辉煌的年份，而人工智能（AI）的发展是一个重要原因。</p>
</div><p>Empowering software and systems with AI capabilities affords them the opportunity to make split-second decisions and become more efficient at their assigned tasks without human intervention. It's a game-changing technology that the analysts at PwC believe can add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by the turn of the decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>赋予软件和系统 AI 能力使它们能够在没有人类干预的情况下做出瞬间决策，并在分配的任务中变得更加高效。这是一项改变游戏规则的技术，普华永道的分析师认为，到本世纪末，它可以为全球经济增加 15.7 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Although dozens of public companies have benefited from the AI revolution, none have taken their spot on Wall Street's mantle quite like <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.78%), the largest publicly traded company, and <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 0.02%). Since 2022 came to a close, Nvidia stock has rocketed higher by more than 1,100% and added over $4 trillion in market value. Meanwhile, Palantir shares are approaching a nearly 2,700% cumulative gain, as of the closing bell on Oct. 16, 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管数十家上市公司从 AI 革命中受益，但没有一家能像 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.78%) 和 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 0.02%) 那样在华尔街的舞台上占据一席之地。自 2022 年结束以来，Nvidia 的股价飙升超过 1100%，市值增加超过 4 万亿美元。与此同时，截至 2025 年 10 月 16 日收盘，Palantir 的股价接近 2700% 的累计涨幅。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg0MzYvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F838436%2Fred-dice-buy-sell-stock-chart-financial-data-invest-billionaire-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>While there's a laundry list of reasons that can justify the breathtaking rallies we've witnessed in both companies, this dynamic AI duo has also issued a very clear warning to Wall Street that can't be swept under the rug.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然有一长串理由可以解释我们在这两家公司所见证的惊人涨幅，但这个动态的 AI 双雄也向华尔街发出了一个不容忽视的明确警告。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's and Palantir's success derives from their sustainable moats</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 和 Palantir 的成功源于其可持续的护城河</h2>
</div><p>There are few business characteristics investors appreciate more than sustainable moats. Companies that possess superior technology, production methods, or platforms don't have to worry about competitors siphoning away their customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对可持续护城河的商业特征尤为看重。拥有卓越技术、生产方法或平台的公司不必担心竞争对手抢走他们的客户。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is best known for its world-leading graphics processing units (GPUs), which act as the brains of enterprise AI-accelerated data centers. Though estimates vary, Nvidia is believed to control 90% or more of the AI-GPUs currently deployed in corporate data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 以其世界领先的图形处理单元（GPU）而闻名，这些 GPU 是企业 AI 加速数据中心的 “大脑”。尽管估计有所不同，但 Nvidia 被认为控制着目前在企业数据中心部署的 90% 或更多的 AI-GPU。</p>
</div><p>No external GPU developers have come close to challenging Nvidia's Hopper (H100), Blackwell, or Blackwell Ultra chips, in terms of compute abilities. With CEO Jensen Huang targeting the release of a new advanced AI chip in the latter half of 2026 and 2027, it seems highly unlikely that Nvidia will cede much of its AI-GPU data center share anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在计算能力方面，没有外部 GPU 开发者能够接近 Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）、Blackwell 或 Blackwell Ultra 芯片。随着首席执行官黄仁勋计划在 2026 年下半年和 2027 年发布一款新的先进 AI 芯片，Nvidia 似乎不太可能在短期内放弃其 AI-GPU 数据中心的市场份额。</p>
</div><p>To add fuel to the fire, Nvidia's CUDA software platform has served as an unsung hero. This is the toolkit used by developers to build and train large language models, as well as maximize the compute abilities of their Nvidia hardware. The value of this software is exemplified by Nvidia's ability to keep its clients within its ecosystem of products and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，Nvidia 的 CUDA 软件平台作为一个无名英雄发挥了重要作用。这是开发者用来构建和训练大型语言模型的工具包，同时最大化其 Nvidia 硬件的计算能力。该软件的价值体现在 Nvidia 能够将客户留在其产品和服务生态系统内。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the beauty of Palantir's operating model is that no other company exists that can match its two core AI- and machine learning-inspired platforms at scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，Palantir 的运营模式之美在于，没有其他公司能够在规模上匹配其两个核心的 AI 和机器学习平台。</p>
</div><p>Gotham is Palantir's true breadwinner. This software-as-a-service platform is used by the U.S. government and its primary allies to plan and oversee military missions, as well as gather and analyze data. The other core platform is Foundry, which is a subscription-based service for businesses looking to make sense of their data and automate some aspects of their operations to improve efficiency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Gotham 是 Palantir 真正的盈利支柱。这个软件即服务平台被美国政府及其主要盟友用于规划和监督军事任务，以及收集和分析数据。另一个核心平台是 Foundry，这是一个面向希望理解数据并自动化某些操作以提高效率的企业的订阅服务。</p>
</div><p>Palantir's government contracts have supported a consistent annual sales growth rate of 25% or above, and played a key role in pushing the company to recurring profitability well ahead of Wall Street's consensus forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 的政府合同支持了 25% 或以上的持续年销售增长率，并在推动公司提前实现持续盈利方面发挥了关键作用，远超华尔街的共识预测。</p>
</div><p>Yet in spite of these well-defined competitive edges, this AI-inspired dynamic duo has offered a stark warning to Wall Street and investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，尽管这些竞争优势非常明确，这对受 AI 启发的动态双雄仍然向华尔街和投资者发出了严峻的警告。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg0MzYvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItaW52ZXN0LWJ1eS1zZWxsLW9wdGlvbnMtc3RvY2stZXhjaGFuZ2UtZ2V0dHkucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F838436%2Fnyse-floor-trader-invest-buy-sell-options-stock-exchange-getty.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's and Palantir's insiders are sending a clear message to Wall Street</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 和 Palantir 的内部人士向华尔街发出了明确的信息</h2>
</div><p>Though AI has been the hottest thing since sliced bread over the last three years, it's not without headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管在过去三年中，AI 一直是最热门的技术，但它并非没有阻力。</p>
</div><p>For example, every next-big-thing technology and hyped innovation since (and including) the advent of the internet more than 30 years ago has endured an early innings bubble-bursting event. This is to say that all new technologies have needed time to mature, and evidence of that maturation isn't wholly evident from the companies investing in AI solutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，自互联网诞生以来的每一项新技术和炒作创新都经历过早期泡沫破裂事件。这意味着所有新技术都需要时间来成熟，而这种成熟的证据并不完全体现在投资 AI 解决方案的公司身上。</p>
</div><p>But perhaps the most damning message of all comes from the insiders at Nvidia and Palantir Technologies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但或许最令人震惊的信息来自 Nvidia 和 Palantir Technologies 的内部人士。</p>
</div><p>An &#34;insider&#34; refers to a high-ranking employee, member of the board, or beneficial owner holding at least 10% of a company's outstanding shares. These are folks who may possess non-public information and know their company better than anyone on Wall Street or Main Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“内部人士” 是指高层员工、董事会成员或持有公司至少 10% 流通股的受益所有者。这些人可能拥有非公开信息，并比华尔街或主街上的任何人更了解他们的公司。</p>
</div><p>Insiders of publicly traded companies are required to be transparent with their trading activity. No later than two business days following a transaction -- buying or selling shares of their company, or exercising options -- insiders are required to file Form 4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These filings tell quite the tale with these two high-flying AI stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上市公司的内部人士必须对其交易活动保持透明。在交易后不超过两个工作日内——购买或出售公司股票，或行使期权——内部人士必须向证券交易委员会提交 Form 4。这些文件讲述了这两只高飞 AI 股票的故事。</p>
</div><p>Over the trailing five-year period, net-selling activity by insiders is as follows:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去五年中，内部人士的净卖出活动如下：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Nvidia:</strong> $5.342 billion in net selling of shares</li>
<li><strong>Palantir:</strong> $7.178 billion in net selling of shares</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>Nvidia：</strong> 净卖出股份 53.42 亿美元</li>
<li><strong>Palantir：</strong> 净卖出股份 71.78 亿美元</li>
</ul>
</div><p>In other words, insiders at the two hottest stocks in the AI arena have, collectively, sold $12.5 billion more of their own company's stock than has been purchased since Oct. 16, 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，AI 领域两只最热门股票的内部人士，自 2020 年 10 月 16 日以来，集体卖出了 125 亿美元的自家股票，而购买的股票却少之又少。</p>
</div><p>The stipulation to this publicly reported data is that most executive and board members at public companies receive their compensation in the form of common stock and/or options. To cover the federal and/or state tax liability tied to their compensation, company insiders often sell stock. In short, there are viable reasons for insiders to head for the exit that aren't necessarily bad news.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要注意的是，这些公开报告的数据的前提是，大多数上市公司的高管和董事会成员以普通股和/或期权的形式获得薪酬。为了支付与其薪酬相关的联邦和/或州税负，公司内部人士通常会出售股票。简而言之，内部人士选择退出的原因并不一定是坏消息。</p>
</div><p>What may be even more telling with Nvidia and Palantir Technologies is the complete lack of insider buying we've witnessed. The last time an Nvidia executive or board member purchased stock, based on Form 4 filings, was in early December 2020. Meanwhile, there's been just one purchase by an executive or board member for Palantir since the company went public in late September 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于英伟达和 Palantir Technologies 来说，更加显著的是我们观察到的内部人士完全没有买入股票。根据 Form 4 的备案，英伟达的高管或董事会成员最后一次购买股票是在 2020 年 12 月初。与此同时，自 2020 年 9 月底公司上市以来，Palantir 仅有一位高管或董事会成员进行了购买。</p>
</div><p>Neither Nvidia nor Palantir Technologies are inexpensive stocks, based on their price-to-sales (P/S) ratios. Over the trailing-12-month period, Nvidia and Palantir are valued at P/S ratios of 27 and 131, respectively. History tells us both figures aren't sustainable over an extended period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据市销率（P/S）来看，英伟达和 Palantir Technologies 都不是便宜的股票。在过去 12 个月中，英伟达和 Palantir 的市销率分别为 27 和 131。历史告诉我们，这两个数字在较长时间内是不可持续的。</p>
</div><p>If no insiders from either company are willing to buy shares of their own stock, why should everyday investors?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这两家公司的内部人士都不愿意购买自己公司的股票，普通投资者又为什么要买呢？</p>
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Wake Up, Investors! Nvidia and Palantir Have Issued a $12.5 Billion Warning to Wall Street.

- 人工智能推动华尔街在 2025 年迎来又一个辉煌年。  
- Nvidia 和 Palantir 的股价分别上涨超过 1100% 和 2700%。  
- 然而，两家公司内部人士在过去五年净卖出 125 亿美元股票，缺乏买入信号。

醒醒，投资者们！NVIDIA 和 Palantir Tech 向华尔街发出了价值 125 亿美元的警告