<p>最近，华尔街的三大主要股指均攀升至新的收盘历史高点。这一涨幅的主要催化剂是投资者对颠覆性技术进步的乐观情绪，例如人工智能（AI）的发展。</p>
<p>但在过去六个多月的快速上涨中，不仅仅是人工智能在发挥作用。量子计算的出现使得四只纯粹的量子计算股票飞涨。<strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -3.92%)、<strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI -3.31%)、<strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS -5.51%) 和 <strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT -2.19%) 在截至 10 月 15 日的过去 12 个月中，分别上涨了 570%、6590%、4340% 和 2830%。</p>
<p>如此巨大的涨幅往往会引发 “FOMO”（错失恐惧症）。不幸的是，历史为量子计算的纯粹股票描绘了不同且严峻的前景。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjEvcm9ja2V0LWNvaW5zLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZmluYW5jaWFsLW1ldHJpY3MtdG8tbW9vbi1jcnlwdG8taW52ZXN0LWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjEvcm9ja2V0LWNvaW5zLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZmluYW5jaWFsLW1ldHJpY3MtdG8tbW9vbi1jcnlwdG8taW52ZXN0LWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>量子计算机的长期前景光明</h2>
<p>展望未来，华尔街最新的热门技术的潜力令人兴奋。量子计算依赖于专用计算机和量子力学原理，能够解决经典计算机无法处理的复杂方程，提供在各种行业和环境中解决难题的能力。</p>
<p>尽管这不是一个完整的列表，量子计算机可以用于：</p>
<ul>
<li>加速人工智能算法的学习能力，从而提高大型语言模型的效率和潜力。</li>
<li>运行分子相互作用模拟，以确定生物技术和制药公司在研究新疗法时的最佳行动方案。</li>
<li>提高天气预报和气候建模的准确性和效率。</li>
<li>破解和改进基于人工智能和机器学习的网络安全平台，以增强最终用户和网络的安全性。</li>
</ul>
<p>在线出版物《Quantum Insider》认为，这项技术在十年内可以为全球经济增加 1 万亿美元的价值。同时，波士顿咨询集团的分析师预计，到 2040 年，量子计算将在全球创造 4500 亿到 8500 亿美元的经济价值。</p>
<p>我们还见证了一些量子计算服务采用的早期证据。<strong>亚马逊</strong> 的量子计算服务 Braket，依托其全球领先的云基础设施服务平台 Amazon Web Services，为其订阅者提供了来自 IonQ 和 Rigetti Computing 的量子计算机的访问。</p>
<p>从理论上讲，这项技术有潜力加速美国企业的长期增长率，并改善全球的生活质量。但在此刻，基于历史的教训，量子计算股票是华尔街上最危险的投资。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>量子计算股票投资者可能会面临严峻的觉醒</h2>
<p>历史往往是投资者的盟友。例如，历史告诉我们，在过去的 20 年中，没有一个滚动的 20 年期间 <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> 的总回报（包括股息）是负的。这是一个相当强烈的相关性，支持乐观的长期投资者。</p>
<p>与此同时，历史为 IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的投资者提供了两个严峻的警告。</p>
<p>首先，现实是，过去三十多年来，每一次颠覆性技术创新和热门趋势都经历了最终的泡沫破裂事件。从 90 年代中期的互联网开始，我们见证了无数技术和下一个热门趋势被炒作并未能达到最初的期望，包括基因组解码、中国股票、纳米技术、3D 打印、区块链技术、大麻和元宇宙。</p>
<p>一次又一次，投资者表现出高估新创新或热门趋势早期采用和效用的倾向。每一项颠覆性技术都需要充足的时间来成熟，<em>没有例外</em>。</p>
<p>在量子计算扩展的极早期阶段，我们看到 IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的亏损不断加剧。此时，这项技术的推广仍处于初期阶段，企业距离优化量子计算解决方案还远得很。简而言之，目前这项技术尚未成为美国企业的盈利生成器或颠覆者。</p>
<p>然而，IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的股票却在交易时表现得仿佛这是一项优化的技术。历史告诉我们，这种差异将导致投资者的高期望未能实现。</p>
<p>另一个绝对不能被忽视或美化的历史阻力是量子计算股票的估值——特别是这些高飞纯粹股票的市销率（P/S 比率）。</p>
<p>在 2000 年 3 月互联网泡沫破裂之前，主导互联网革命的上市公司通常在市销率达到 30 到略高于 40 时达到峰值。历史表明，行业领导者的市销率在这一范围内或接近这一范围是不可持续的。</p>
<p>截至 10 月 15 日，华尔街量子计算明星的市销率（基于过去 12 个月）为：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>：316</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>：1,803</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>：515</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>：10,005</li>
</ul>
<p>即使我们考虑到这四只纯粹股票在未来两年内的双位数和三位数年销售增长，基于华尔街对 2027 年的共识销售预测，它们各自的市销率也仅会降至：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>: 79.9（估计）</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>: 456.6（估计）</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>: 215.7（估计）</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>: 475.4（估计）</li>
</ul>
<p>考虑到美国企业距离量子计算机的广泛应用和实用性还有多远，这些超高的估值是无法合理化的。如果历史告诉我们，市场领导者的市销率在 30 到 40 之间是不可持续的，那么想象一下，对于四家未经验证的企业来说，当其市销率比这一历史高峰区间高出 2 倍到 12 倍，并以未来两年的收入定价时，将会面临什么样的局面！</p>

RGTI

QBTS

IONQ

<p>这篇文章讨论了量子计算公司 IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的股价飙升，这些公司在过去一年中获得了巨大的收益。然而，文章警告说，历史表明这些股票可能是危险的投资，因为过去存在技术泡沫的趋势。尽管量子计算具有显著的经济价值潜力，但这些公司的当前估值和财务损失表明，它们可能尚未准备好满足投资者的期望。文章强调了对潜在投资者在该领域的谨慎态度</p>

<p>Recently, all three of Wall Street's major stock indexes climbed to fresh record-closing highs. The primary catalyst fueling these gains is investor optimism tied to game-changing technological advances, such as the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，华尔街的三大主要股指均攀升至新的收盘历史高点。这一涨幅的主要催化剂是投资者对颠覆性技术进步的乐观情绪，例如人工智能（AI）的发展。</p>
</div><p>But it's not just AI responsible for this breakneck rally over the last six-plus months. The emergence of quantum computing has sent four pure-play stocks into the stratosphere. <strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -3.92%), <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI -3.31%), <strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS -5.51%), and <strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT -2.19%) have respectively soared by 570%, 6,590%, 4,340%, and 2,830% over the trailing-12-month period, as of the closing bell on Oct. 15.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在过去六个多月的快速上涨中，不仅仅是人工智能在发挥作用。量子计算的出现使得四只纯粹的量子计算股票飞涨。<strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -3.92%)、<strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI -3.31%)、<strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS -5.51%) 和 <strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT -2.19%) 在截至 10 月 15 日的过去 12 个月中，分别上涨了 570%、6590%、4340% 和 2830%。</p>
</div><p>Gains of this magnitude tend to incite &#34;FOMO&#34; (the fear of missing out). Unfortunately, history paints a different and dire picture for quantum computing's pure-play stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如此巨大的涨幅往往会引发 “FOMO”（错失恐惧症）。不幸的是，历史为量子计算的纯粹股票描绘了不同且严峻的前景。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjEvcm9ja2V0LWNvaW5zLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZmluYW5jaWFsLW1ldHJpY3MtdG8tbW9vbi1jcnlwdG8taW52ZXN0LWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F838261%2Frocket-coins-calculator-financial-metrics-to-moon-crypto-invest-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The long-term future for quantum computers is bright</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>量子计算机的长期前景光明</h2>
</div><p>When looking out to the horizon, it's easy to get excited about the potential of Wall Street's latest hyped technology. Quantum computing, which relies on specialized computers and the principles of quantum mechanics to solve complex equations that classical computers are incapable of, offers the ability to tackle difficult problems in a variety of industries and settings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，华尔街最新的热门技术的潜力令人兴奋。量子计算依赖于专用计算机和量子力学原理，能够解决经典计算机无法处理的复杂方程，提供在各种行业和环境中解决难题的能力。</p>
</div><p>Though far from a complete list, quantum computers can be used to:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这不是一个完整的列表，量子计算机可以用于：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Speed up the learning capabilities of AI algorithms, which can expedite the efficiency and potential of large language models.</li>
<li>Run molecular interaction simulations to determine the best course of action for biotech and pharmaceutical companies when researching new therapies.</li>
<li>Improve the accuracy and efficiency of weather forecasting and climate modeling.</li>
<li>Break and improve AI- and machine learning-driven cybersecurity platforms to enhance end-user and network safety.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>加速人工智能算法的学习能力，从而提高大型语言模型的效率和潜力。</li>
<li>运行分子相互作用模拟，以确定生物技术和制药公司在研究新疗法时的最佳行动方案。</li>
<li>提高天气预报和气候建模的准确性和效率。</li>
<li>破解和改进基于人工智能和机器学习的网络安全平台，以增强最终用户和网络的安全性。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Online publication The Quantum Insider believes this technology can add $1 trillion in global economic value in a decade. Meanwhile, the analysts at Boston Consulting Group are looking for between $450 billion and $850 billion in economic value to be created worldwide from quantum computing by 2040.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在线出版物《Quantum Insider》认为，这项技术在十年内可以为全球经济增加 1 万亿美元的价值。同时，波士顿咨询集团的分析师预计，到 2040 年，量子计算将在全球创造 4500 亿到 8500 亿美元的经济价值。</p>
</div><p>We've also witnessed some very early evidence of quantum computing service adoption. <strong>Amazon</strong>'s quantum computing service Braket, which is operated on its world-leading cloud infrastructure service platform Amazon Web Services, is giving its subscribers access to quantum computers from IonQ and Rigetti Computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们还见证了一些量子计算服务采用的早期证据。<strong>亚马逊</strong> 的量子计算服务 Braket，依托其全球领先的云基础设施服务平台 Amazon Web Services，为其订阅者提供了来自 IonQ 和 Rigetti Computing 的量子计算机的访问。</p>
</div><p>On paper, this technology has the potential to accelerate corporate America's long-term growth rate and improve quality of life around the world. But at this very moment, quantum computing stocks are the most dangerous investment on Wall Street, based on what history tells us.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从理论上讲，这项技术有潜力加速美国企业的长期增长率，并改善全球的生活质量。但在此刻，基于历史的教训，量子计算股票是华尔街上最危险的投资。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F838261%2Fstock-chart-crash-invest-broker-tablet-crypto-plunge-bubble-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Quantum computing stock investors are likely in for a rude awakening</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>量子计算股票投资者可能会面临严峻的觉醒</h2>
</div><p>More often than not, history is an ally of investors. For instance, history tells us that there hasn't been a rolling 20-year period where the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> has delivered a negative total return, including dividends. This is a pretty resounding correlation in favor of optimistic, long-term investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史往往是投资者的盟友。例如，历史告诉我们，在过去的 20 年中，没有一个滚动的 20 年期间 <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> 的总回报（包括股息）是负的。这是一个相当强烈的相关性，支持乐观的长期投资者。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, history offers two dire warnings for investors in IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，历史为 IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的投资者提供了两个严峻的警告。</p>
</div><p>Firstly, there's the reality that every game-changing technological innovation and hyped trend for more than three decades has navigated its way through an eventual bubble-bursting event. Beginning with the internet in the mid-1990s, we've witnessed a myriad of technologies and next-big-thing trends be hyped and fail to live up to initial expectations, including genome decoding, China stocks, nanotechnology, 3D printing, blockchain technology, cannabis, and the metaverse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，现实是，过去三十多年来，每一次颠覆性技术创新和热门趋势都经历了最终的泡沫破裂事件。从 90 年代中期的互联网开始，我们见证了无数技术和下一个热门趋势被炒作并未能达到最初的期望，包括基因组解码、中国股票、纳米技术、3D 打印、区块链技术、大麻和元宇宙。</p>
</div><p>Time and again, investors have demonstrated a willingness to overestimate the early innings adoption and utility of a new innovation or hyped trend. Every game-changing technology needs ample time to mature, <em>without exception</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一次又一次，投资者表现出高估新创新或热门趋势早期采用和效用的倾向。每一项颠覆性技术都需要充足的时间来成熟，<em>没有例外</em>。</p>
</div><p>In the extremely early stages of quantum computing's expansion, we're seeing IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing, Inc., lose money hand over fist. It's also so early in the rollout of this technology that businesses aren't remotely close to optimizing quantum computing solutions. In short, this technology isn't a profit-generator or game-changer for corporate America, as of yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在量子计算扩展的极早期阶段，我们看到 IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的亏损不断加剧。此时，这项技术的推广仍处于初期阶段，企业距离优化量子计算解决方案还远得很。简而言之，目前这项技术尚未成为美国企业的盈利生成器或颠覆者。</p>
</div><p>However, IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing, Inc., stocks are trading as if it's an optimized technology. History tells us this disparity will result in lofty investor expectations not being met.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的股票却在交易时表现得仿佛这是一项优化的技术。历史告诉我们，这种差异将导致投资者的高期望未能实现。</p>
</div><p>The other historical headwind that absolutely cannot be swept under the rug or sugarcoated in any way is quantum computing stock valuations -- specifically the price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of these high-flying pure-plays.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个绝对不能被忽视或美化的历史阻力是量子计算股票的估值——特别是这些高飞纯粹股票的市销率（P/S 比率）。</p>
</div><p>Prior to the bursting of the dot-com bubble in March 2000, publicly traded companies leading the internet revolution commonly peaked at P/S ratios ranging from 30 to slightly over 40. History has shown that P/S ratios at or near this range from industry leaders aren't sustainable over an extended period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2000 年 3 月互联网泡沫破裂之前，主导互联网革命的上市公司通常在市销率达到 30 到略高于 40 时达到峰值。历史表明，行业领导者的市销率在这一范围内或接近这一范围是不可持续的。</p>
</div><p>On a trailing-12-month basis, the P/S ratios for Wall Street's quantum computing darlings are (as of the closing bell on Oct. 15):</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 10 月 15 日，华尔街量子计算明星的市销率（基于过去 12 个月）为：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>: 316</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>: 1,803</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>: 515</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>: 10,005</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>：316</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>：1,803</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>：515</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>：10,005</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Even if we factor in double- and triple-digit annual sales growth over the next two years for these four pure-plays, their respective P/S ratios, based on Wall Street's consensus sales forecasts in 2027, would respectively only fall to:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使我们考虑到这四只纯粹股票在未来两年内的双位数和三位数年销售增长，基于华尔街对 2027 年的共识销售预测，它们各自的市销率也仅会降至：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>: 79.9 (est.)</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>: 456.6 (est.)</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>: 215.7 (est.)</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>: 475.4 (est.)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>: 79.9（估计）</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>: 456.6（估计）</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>: 215.7（估计）</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>: 475.4（估计）</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Given how far away corporate America is from the widespread adoption and utility of quantum computers, these ultra-premium valuations can't be justified. If history tells us that P/S ratios of 30 to 40 for market leaders aren't sustainable, imagine what awaits four unproven businesses with P/S ratios that are 2X to 12X above this historical peak range when priced at revenue two years into the future!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到美国企业距离量子计算机的广泛应用和实用性还有多远，这些超高的估值是无法合理化的。如果历史告诉我们，市场领导者的市销率在 30 到 40 之间是不可持续的，那么想象一下，对于四家未经验证的企业来说，当其市销率比这一历史高峰区间高出 2 倍到 12 倍，并以未来两年的收入定价时，将会面临什么样的局面！</p>
</div>

量子计算股票 IonQ、Rigetti Computing 和 D-Wave Quantum 是否是华尔街最危险的投资？历史数据表明确实如此