<p>谈到 <strong>奈飞</strong>(NFLX 2.77%)，爱情并不是盲目的。作为全球领先的高端视频流媒体服务，奈飞需要在每个季度证明自己。现在是财报季，奈飞需要向你展示它在节目中建立的联系能否在现实世界中存活。</p>
<p>如果你不是奈飞热门真人秀节目 <em>爱情盲选</em> 的粉丝，可能有些内容你会觉得难以理解。请耐心听我说。奈飞将在周二下午公布其第三季度业绩。对于这家流媒体服务的风向标股票来说，有三件事情是绝对不能搞砸的。让我们深入探讨一下投资者在本周关键财务更新中应该关注的内容。</p>
<h2>1. 重新回到胜利的轨道</h2>
<p>奈飞的投资者很难抱怨。过去一年，该股的表现远超市场，长期投资的表现也是如此。然而，在今年夏季的第二季度更新后，有两个显著的连胜纪录宣告结束。</p>
<p>季度报告似乎满足了投资者喜欢看到的所有关键指标。16% 的收入增长超出了预期，并且也轻松超过了华尔街的利润目标。它还提高了指引。然而，市场仍然不为所动，导致股价在随后的交易日下跌。</p>
<p>“超预期并提高指引” 的表现是奈飞的常态。但股价在消息发布后下滑却让人感到困惑。在过去的类似超预期结果中，股价通常会上涨。以下是过去一年奈飞财报发布后股价的反应：</p>
<p>-2025 年 7 月 18 日：下跌 5%
-2025 年 4 月 21 日：上涨 2%
-2025 年 1 月 22 日：上涨 10%
-2024 年 10 月 18 日：上涨 11%</p>
<p>单日下跌 5% 并不会破坏投资组合。过去一年，该股仍上涨了惊人的 74%。这 <em>确实</em> 表明市场对奈飞的期望提高了。夏季更新结束了一个更长的连胜纪录。看看该股在本周财务对决前的三年走势图。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg5NDYvc2NyZWVuc2hvdC0yMDI1LTEwLTIwLWF0LTg1OTM4YW0ucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg5NDYvc2NyZWVuc2hvdC0yMDI1LTEwLTIwLWF0LTg1OTM4YW0ucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>欣赏整体股票走势图是可以的。奈飞在过去三年中股价增长了四倍多。然而，仔细看看图表上每个紫色的 E。那是奈飞发布季度业绩的日子。如果你回顾 2023 年第三季度——从左数第四个 E——你会注意到在财报发布之间，股价是上涨的。</p>
<p>每日波动很有趣，但报告之间的三个月波动才是真正的财富创造者。奈飞在连续七个季度的财报发布之间股价上涨，直到今年第二季度。除非在周二收盘前出现猛烈反弹，否则这又是一个即将结束的连胜纪录。一个出色的季度业绩可以帮助奈飞开启新的日常和季度价格上涨的连胜纪录。</p>
<h2>2. 考虑涨价</h2>
<p>在第三季度业绩发布前的预期是合理的。分析师预计截至 9 月的三个月收入将加速增长，增长 17% 至 115 亿美元。他们预计盈利增长更快，激增 29% 至每股 6.97 美元。</p>
<p>这些都是大幅增长。分析师预测的收入增长将是奈飞四年来最大的收入增长。问题在于——也是我称预期为合理的原因——这基本上是奈飞三个月前为自己设定的标准。七月份的指引预计第三季度每股净收入为 6.87 美元，收入增长 17%。</p>
<p>报告中更有趣的部分是公司是否会对其服务的涨价做出任何评论。竞争对手 <strong>华特迪士尼</strong> 上个月宣布了大多数高端流媒体服务的涨价。这些涨价恰好在周二生效。这并不令人惊讶。这是媒体巨头连续第四年提高 Disney+ 和 Hulu 的订阅价格。奈飞多年来也提高了价格，最近一次是在一月份。它可能会在报告中暗示即将到来的价格变动，这可能会对股价产生影响。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg5NDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTI5NDYwNDg5MS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg5NDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTI5NDYwNDg5MS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>3. 可能是时候进行股票拆分了</h2>
<p>毫无疑问，奈飞早该进行股票拆分了。自 2015 年夏季以来，它就没有宣布过拆分。在此期间，股价已经翻了 1100 倍，因此可以说股票拆分并不是必要的。然而，随着许多其他增长股在近年来进行股票拆分，奈飞的拆分只是时间问题。</p>
<p>对本周股票拆分的潜在时机持怀疑态度是很容易的。奈飞在过去七个季度股价上涨时并没有宣布拆分。为什么在上次财务更新后股价下跌时会这样做呢？这是一个合理的观点，但如果奈飞的报告确实强劲——可能还伴随着一些令人鼓舞的发展或涨价——这可能足以促使股票拆分的发生。</p>
<p>保持关注。你永远不知道奈飞何时会像 <em>KPop Demon Hunters</em> ——另一部受欢迎的奈飞节目——那样反击反对者。</p>

奈飞

<p>Netflix 即将公布其第三季度财报，投资者密切关注三个关键领域：1）在近期股价下跌的情况下，尽管收入增长强劲，但需要重新获得动能；2）在迪士尼最近提价后，潜在的价格上涨；3）自 2015 年以来 Netflix 尚未进行股票拆分，是否可能进行股票拆分。分析师预计收入将增长 17%，达到 115 亿美元，每股收益将增长 29%，达到 6.97 美元。这份财报的结果可能会对 Netflix 的股价表现产生重大影响</p>

<p>When it comes to <strong>Netflix</strong>(NFLX 2.77%), love isn't blind. The world's leading premium video streaming service needs to prove itself on a quarterly basis. It's earnings season now, and it's up to Netflix to show that the connection it made with you in the pod can survive in the real world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谈到 <strong>奈飞</strong>(NFLX 2.77%)，爱情并不是盲目的。作为全球领先的高端视频流媒体服务，奈飞需要在每个季度证明自己。现在是财报季，奈飞需要向你展示它在节目中建立的联系能否在现实世界中存活。</p>
</div><p>If you're not a fan of the popular <em>Love Is Blind</em> reality series on Netflix, some of that won't make sense. Bear with me. Netflix will announce its third-quarter results on Tuesday afternoon. There are three things that the streaming service stocks bellwether can't afford to mess up. Let's dive in to see what investors should watch with this week's critical financial update.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你不是奈飞热门真人秀节目 <em>爱情盲选</em> 的粉丝，可能有些内容你会觉得难以理解。请耐心听我说。奈飞将在周二下午公布其第三季度业绩。对于这家流媒体服务的风向标股票来说，有三件事情是绝对不能搞砸的。让我们深入探讨一下投资者在本周关键财务更新中应该关注的内容。</p>
</div><h2>1. Getting back to winning again</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 重新回到胜利的轨道</h2>
</div><p>It's hard for Netflix investors to complain. The stock is trouncing the market over the past year, just as it has for longer investing horizons. However, two notable winning streaks came to an end after this summer's second-quarter update.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飞的投资者很难抱怨。过去一年，该股的表现远超市场，长期投资的表现也是如此。然而，在今年夏季的第二季度更新后，有两个显著的连胜纪录宣告结束。</p>
</div><p>The quarterly report seemed to check off all of the right boxes that investors like to see. Revenue growth of 16% exceeded expectations, and it also landed comfortably ahead of Wall Street profit targets. It also boosted its guidance. The market was still unimpressed, sending the shares lower the following market day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>季度报告似乎满足了投资者喜欢看到的所有关键指标。16% 的收入增长超出了预期，并且也轻松超过了华尔街的利润目标。它还提高了指引。然而，市场仍然不为所动，导致股价在随后的交易日下跌。</p>
</div><p>The &#34;beat and raise&#34; performance is par for the course when it comes to Netflix. Sliding on the news is the head-scratcher. The shares had moved higher on similar better-than-expected results in the recent past. Here is how the shares reacted on the trading day following its earnings release over the past year:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“超预期并提高指引” 的表现是奈飞的常态。但股价在消息发布后下滑却让人感到困惑。在过去的类似超预期结果中，股价通常会上涨。以下是过去一年奈飞财报发布后股价的反应：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>July 18, 2025: Down 5%</li>
<li>April 21, 2025: Up 2%</li>
<li>Jan. 22, 2025: Up 10%</li>
<li>Oct. 18, 2024: Up 11%</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-2025 年 7 月 18 日：下跌 5%
-2025 年 4 月 21 日：上涨 2%
-2025 年 1 月 22 日：上涨 10%
-2024 年 10 月 18 日：上涨 11%</p>
</div><p>The 5% decline in a single day isn't a portfolio breaker. The stock is still up a whopping 74% over the past year. It <em>is</em> a sign that the market has heightened expectations when it comes to Netflix. The summertime update ended an even longer streak. Check out the stock's three-year chart heading into this week's financial showdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>单日下跌 5% 并不会破坏投资组合。过去一年，该股仍上涨了惊人的 74%。这 <em>确实</em> 表明市场对奈飞的期望提高了。夏季更新结束了一个更长的连胜纪录。看看该股在本周财务对决前的三年走势图。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg5NDYvc2NyZWVuc2hvdC0yMDI1LTEwLTIwLWF0LTg1OTM4YW0ucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F838946%2Fscreenshot-2025-10-20-at-85938am.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>It's fine to admire the overall stock chart. Netflix has more than quadrupled over the past three years. However, take a closer look at every purple E on the chart. That is the day that Netflix offered up its quarterly results. If you go back to the third quarter of 2023 -- the fourth E from the left -- you will notice that the stock has moved higher between earnings reports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欣赏整体股票走势图是可以的。奈飞在过去三年中股价增长了四倍多。然而，仔细看看图表上每个紫色的 E。那是奈飞发布季度业绩的日子。如果你回顾 2023 年第三季度——从左数第四个 E——你会注意到在财报发布之间，股价是上涨的。</p>
</div><p>The daily moves are interesting, but the three-month move between the reports is the real wealth-creator. Netflix has moved higher between earnings reports for seven consecutive quarters, until the second quarter of this year. Barring a torrid rally before Tuesday's close, this is another winning streak that is coming to an end. A blowout quarter can help Netflix start a new winning streak for the daily and quarterly price actions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每日波动很有趣，但报告之间的三个月波动才是真正的财富创造者。奈飞在连续七个季度的财报发布之间股价上涨，直到今年第二季度。除非在周二收盘前出现猛烈反弹，否则这又是一个即将结束的连胜纪录。一个出色的季度业绩可以帮助奈飞开启新的日常和季度价格上涨的连胜纪录。</p>
</div><h2>2. Considering price hikes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 考虑涨价</h2>
</div><p>Expectations heading into the third-quarter reveal are fair. Analysts see revenue accelerating for the three months ending in September, rising 17% to $11.5 billion. They see profitability growing even faster, surging 29% to $6.97 a share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第三季度业绩发布前的预期是合理的。分析师预计截至 9 月的三个月收入将加速增长，增长 17% 至 115 亿美元。他们预计盈利增长更快，激增 29% 至每股 6.97 美元。</p>
</div><p>These are big jumps. The top-line jump that analysts are modeling would be Netflix's biggest increase in revenue in more than four years. The problem -- and the reason why I called expectations fair -- is that this is essentially the bar that Netflix set for itself three months ago. Guidance back in July called for net income of $6.87 a share on a similar 17% step-up in revenue for the third quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些都是大幅增长。分析师预测的收入增长将是奈飞四年来最大的收入增长。问题在于——也是我称预期为合理的原因——这基本上是奈飞三个月前为自己设定的标准。七月份的指引预计第三季度每股净收入为 6.87 美元，收入增长 17%。</p>
</div><p>The more interesting part of the report to watch for is if the company makes any comments on raising prices for its service. Rival <strong>Walt Disney</strong> announced hikes across most of its premium streaming services last month. They coincidentally kick in on Tuesday. It wasn't a surprise. This is the fourth year in a row that the media stock giant has lifted subscription prices for Disney+ and Hulu. Netflix has also increased its rates over the years, and its last move came in January. It could signal an upcoming pricing change during the report, potentially moving the stock on <em>that</em> news.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告中更有趣的部分是公司是否会对其服务的涨价做出任何评论。竞争对手 <strong>华特迪士尼</strong> 上个月宣布了大多数高端流媒体服务的涨价。这些涨价恰好在周二生效。这并不令人惊讶。这是媒体巨头连续第四年提高 Disney+ 和 Hulu 的订阅价格。奈飞多年来也提高了价格，最近一次是在一月份。它可能会在报告中暗示即将到来的价格变动，这可能会对股价产生影响。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg5NDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTI5NDYwNDg5MS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F838946%2Fgettyimages-1294604891.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>3. It could be time for a stock split</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 可能是时候进行股票拆分了</h2>
</div><p>There's no denying that Netflix is long overdue for a stock split. It hasn't declared a split since the summer of 2015. The stock is head-turning 1,100-bagger in that time, so one can argue that a stock split isn't necessary. However, with so many other growth stocks with four-figure price points executing stock splits in recent years it's just a matter of time for Netflix.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，奈飞早该进行股票拆分了。自 2015 年夏季以来，它就没有宣布过拆分。在此期间，股价已经翻了 1100 倍，因此可以说股票拆分并不是必要的。然而，随着许多其他增长股在近年来进行股票拆分，奈飞的拆分只是时间问题。</p>
</div><p>It's easy to be skeptical about the potential timing of a stock split this week. Netflix didn't announce one in the previous seven quarters when its stock was ascending. Why would it do so now when it has moved lower since its last financial update? It's a fair point, but if Netflix has a truly strong report -- potentially padded with some encouraging developments or a price hike -- it could be enough to put a stock split in play.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对本周股票拆分的潜在时机持怀疑态度是很容易的。奈飞在过去七个季度股价上涨时并没有宣布拆分。为什么在上次财务更新后股价下跌时会这样做呢？这是一个合理的观点，但如果奈飞的报告确实强劲——可能还伴随着一些令人鼓舞的发展或涨价——这可能足以促使股票拆分的发生。</p>
</div><p>Stay close. You never know when Netflix will go <em>KPop Demon Hunters</em> -- another piece of popular Netflix programming -- on the naysayers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>保持关注。你永远不知道奈飞何时会像 <em>KPop Demon Hunters</em> ——另一部受欢迎的奈飞节目——那样反击反对者。</p>
</div>

3 Things Netflix Will Need to Get Right This Week

- Netflix 将于周二发布第三季度财报，市场期待其业绩表现。  
- 分析师预计收入将增长 17%，达到 115 亿美元，盈利增长 29%。  
- 投资者关注 Netflix 是否会宣布提价或进行股票拆分。  

奈飞本周需要搞定的三件事