<p>最初，抵押贷款巨头 <strong>Rocket Companies Inc</strong> (NYSE:RKT) 的情况并不乐观，RKT 股票在疫情后住房热潮的高峰期首次公开上市。从基本面来看，这几乎没有可持续增长的现实空间，随后导致股价崩溃。然而，随着房地产市场出现积极的潜在趋势——以及一个引人注目的量化信号——RKT 正在上涨。</p>
<p>对 RKT 股票的热情似乎与美联储在货币政策上的鸽派转变密切相关。9 月，中央银行将基准利率下调至 4% 到 4.25% 的区间。最近，政策制定者宣布利率将再次下调至 3.75% 到 4% 的区间。</p>
<p>因此，这一举措对于之前承受高融资成本的潜在购房者来说无疑是个好消息。尽管房价本身历史上处于高位，但有证据表明，即使在这里，买家也可能会看到一些缓解。</p>
<p>今年夏天早些时候，房地产数据显示，买家在某些市场上对高要价表现出犹豫。这一动态迫使一些卖家撤回他们的挂牌，而其他卖家则提供了折扣。后者的发展可能会引起潜在 RKT 股票投资者的兴趣。</p>
<p>如果利率和房价都下降，这可能对房地产市场是一个净积极的信号，而不是预期中低利率导致高房价的打地鼠游戏。从观察的角度来看，RKT 股票值得认真考虑。</p>
<h2>RKT 股票的量化信号闪耀</h2>
<p>还有两个因素可能促成 RKT 股票的上涨。首先，Rocket Companies 将在明天收盘后发布第三季度财报。分析师预计 Rocket 每股收益为 3 美分，营收为 16.9 亿美元。在我看来，推动市场情绪的将是管理层的评论和指引，而非实际的财报数据。</p>
<p>如果我们在更广泛的房地产市场上看到的情况有任何指示，Rocket 有很大的机会给人惊喜。</p>
<p>当然，盈利结果和市场反应是非常难以预测的。从预测的角度来看，更合理的是量化图景。根据 Rocket 首次公开募股以来的数据，RKT 股票的预计 10 周回报形成了一个偏斜的分布特征，价格预计在 16.90 美元到 18.10 美元之间（假设以 17.30 美元为锚）。此外，价格聚集最明显的地方大约在 17.35 美元。</p>
<p>然而，我们通过 GARCH（广义自回归条件异方差）研究知道，波动性的扩散特性是非线性和聚集的，而不是线性和有序的。通过逻辑推理，不同的市场刺激会产生不同的市场行为。</p>
<p>在过去的 10 周中，RKT 股票呈现出 4-6-D 的序列：四周上涨，六周下跌，整体呈下降趋势。在这种特定的分布重刺激下，RKT 的分布特征从基线或稳态状态发生变化。风险回报的尾部扩展到低端的 15.75 美元和高端的 19.25 美元，而不是在 16.90 美元到 18.10 美元之间。</p>
<p>最重要的是，价格预计会主要聚集在 17.75 美元左右。因此，在 4-6-D 条件下，交易者可能会预期价格密度动态的正向变化为 2.31%。</p>
<p>这听起来可能不算太多，但当你考虑到像垂直价差这样的基于期权的策略的固有杠杆时，这个变化可能提供不对称的优势。</p>
<h2>攻击 Rocket Companies 的两种方式</h2>
<p>撇开即将发布的财报，从数字上看，当前最有意义的交易无疑是到期日为 12 月 19 日的 17/18 牛市看涨期权价差。这笔交易涉及购买 17 美元的看涨期权，同时出售 18 美元的看涨期权，净支出为 42 美元（最多可能损失的金额）。</p>
<p>如果 RKT 股票在到期时突破第二个行使价（18 美元），最大利润将为 58 美元，收益超过 138%。盈亏平衡点为 17.42 美元，这基于上述价格聚集动态，似乎是一个现实的目标。</p>
<p>然而，那些希望押注于积极财报的人可能会考虑相同的几何 17/18 价差，但到期日为 11 月 21 日。这将导致最大收益约为 133%。盈亏平衡点为 17.43 美元，这在时间较短的情况下显得有些雄心勃勃。然而，较便宜的净支出 43 美元可能会吸引投机者。</p>
<p><strong><em>本文中表达的意见和观点仅代表个人作者的看法，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文提供的任何信息的准确性或可靠性不承担责任。本文仅供信息参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的意见或信息，并在做出投资决策之前进行自己的尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>期权角落：联合包裹的盈利超预期为快速进攻打开了大门</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

<p>Rocket Companies Inc（纽约证券交易所代码：RKT）因房地产市场的有利变化和美联储最近的降息而呈现出看涨趋势。分析师预计将发布积极的财报，预期每股收益为 3 美分，营收为 16.9 亿美元。该股票的预期价格区间在 16.90 美元到 18.10 美元之间，集中在 17.35 美元附近。交易者可以考虑采用 17/18 的看涨期权价差策略，如果 RKT 股票上涨，可能会带来可观的回报。内容反映了作者的观点，并不构成投资建议</p>

<p>Initially, circumstances for mortgage lending giant <strong>Rocket Companies Inc</strong> (NYSE:RKT) did not look appealing, with RKT stock making its public market debut at the peak of the post-pandemic housing euphoria. Fundamentally, that left virtually no realistic margin for sustained growth, subsequently cratering the equity. However, with positive undercurrents materializing in the real estate market — along with a compelling quantitative signal — RKT is on the rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最初，抵押贷款巨头 <strong>Rocket Companies Inc</strong> (NYSE:RKT) 的情况并不乐观，RKT 股票在疫情后住房热潮的高峰期首次公开上市。从基本面来看，这几乎没有可持续增长的现实空间，随后导致股价崩溃。然而，随着房地产市场出现积极的潜在趋势——以及一个引人注目的量化信号——RKT 正在上涨。</p>
</div><p>Much of the enthusiasm for RKT stock appears to be tied to the Federal Reserve's dovish pivot in monetary policy. In September, the central bank cut the benchmark interest rate to a range between 4% to 4.25%. Just recently, policymakers announced that the rate will be lowered again to a range between 3.75% to 4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对 RKT 股票的热情似乎与美联储在货币政策上的鸽派转变密切相关。9 月，中央银行将基准利率下调至 4% 到 4.25% 的区间。最近，政策制定者宣布利率将再次下调至 3.75% 到 4% 的区间。</p>
</div><p>Subsequently, the move should be a welcome one for prospective homebuyers, who have previously been burdened with onerous financing costs. And while housing prices themselves have been historically elevated, there's evidence that even here, buyers may see some relief.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，这一举措对于之前承受高融资成本的潜在购房者来说无疑是个好消息。尽管房价本身历史上处于高位，但有证据表明，即使在这里，买家也可能会看到一些缓解。</p>
</div><p>Earlier this summer, real estate data revealed that there was reluctance among buyers to meet high asking prices in certain markets. While this dynamic forced some sellers to withdraw their listings, others have offered discounts. It's this latter development that could be of interest for prospective investors of RKT stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年夏天早些时候，房地产数据显示，买家在某些市场上对高要价表现出犹豫。这一动态迫使一些卖家撤回他们的挂牌，而其他卖家则提供了折扣。后者的发展可能会引起潜在 RKT 股票投资者的兴趣。</p>
</div><p>If both rates and prices drop, that would likely be a net positive for the housing market rather than the expected whack-a-mole game of lower rates leading to higher prices. From an observational standpoint, then, RKT stock deserves serious consideration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果利率和房价都下降，这可能对房地产市场是一个净积极的信号，而不是预期中低利率导致高房价的打地鼠游戏。从观察的角度来看，RKT 股票值得认真考虑。</p>
</div><h2>A Quant Signal Shines Bright For RKT Stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>RKT 股票的量化信号闪耀</h2>
</div><p>Two other factors could contribute to a possible upswing in RKT stock. First, Rocket Companies will be expected to post its third-quarter earnings report tomorrow after the closing bell. Analysts will be looking for Rocket to post earnings of 3 cents per share on revenue of $1.69 billion. In my opinion, what's going to drive sentiment is management's commentary and guidance rather than the actual print.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有两个因素可能促成 RKT 股票的上涨。首先，Rocket Companies 将在明天收盘后发布第三季度财报。分析师预计 Rocket 每股收益为 3 美分，营收为 16.9 亿美元。在我看来，推动市场情绪的将是管理层的评论和指引，而非实际的财报数据。</p>
</div><p>If what we're seeing in the broader real estate landscape is any indication, there's a solid chance that Rocket can surprise to the upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果我们在更广泛的房地产市场上看到的情况有任何指示，Rocket 有很大的机会给人惊喜。</p>
</div><p>Of course, earnings results and the market's response are incredibly difficult to predict. What's more reasonable from a forecasting perspective is the quantitative picture. Using data since Rocket's initial public offering, the projected 10-week returns of RKT stock form a skewed distributional profile, with prices expected to range between $16.90 and $18.10 (assuming an anchor of $17.30). Further, price clustering would be most prominent at approximately $17.35.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，盈利结果和市场反应是非常难以预测的。从预测的角度来看，更合理的是量化图景。根据 Rocket 首次公开募股以来的数据，RKT 股票的预计 10 周回报形成了一个偏斜的分布特征，价格预计在 16.90 美元到 18.10 美元之间（假设以 17.30 美元为锚）。此外，价格聚集最明显的地方大约在 17.35 美元。</p>
</div><p>However, we know through GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) studies that the diffusional properties of volatility are non-linear and clustered rather than linear and orderly. By logical deduction, it stands to reason that different market stimuli yield different market behaviors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我们通过 GARCH（广义自回归条件异方差）研究知道，波动性的扩散特性是非线性和聚集的，而不是线性和有序的。通过逻辑推理，不同的市场刺激会产生不同的市场行为。</p>
</div><p>In the last 10 weeks, RKT stock has printed a 4-6-D sequence: four up weeks, six down weeks, with an overall downward slope. Under this specific distribution-heavy stimulus, RKT's distributional profile changes from the baseline or homeostatic state. Rather than a range between $16.90 and $18.10, the risk-reward tails expand to $15.75 on the low end and $19.25 on the high end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的 10 周中，RKT 股票呈现出 4-6-D 的序列：四周上涨，六周下跌，整体呈下降趋势。在这种特定的分布重刺激下，RKT 的分布特征从基线或稳态状态发生变化。风险回报的尾部扩展到低端的 15.75 美元和高端的 19.25 美元，而不是在 16.90 美元到 18.10 美元之间。</p>
</div><p>Most significantly, prices would be expected to cluster predominantly at around $17.75. Therefore, under 4-6-D conditions, traders may anticipate a 2.31% positive delta in price density dynamics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最重要的是，价格预计会主要聚集在 17.75 美元左右。因此，在 4-6-D 条件下，交易者可能会预期价格密度动态的正向变化为 2.31%。</p>
</div><p>That might not sound like much but when you factor in the inherent leverage of an options-based strategy like the vertical spread, this delta may provide an asymmetric edge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这听起来可能不算太多，但当你考虑到像垂直价差这样的基于期权的策略的固有杠杆时，这个变化可能提供不对称的优势。</p>
</div><h2>Two Ways To Attack Rocket Companies</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>攻击 Rocket Companies 的两种方式</h2>
</div><p>Setting aside the upcoming earnings report, when looking at Rocket Companies strictly by the numbers, the trade that arguably makes the most sense at this hour is the 17/18 bull call spread expiring Dec. 19. This transaction involves buying the $17 call and simultaneously selling the $18 call, for a net debit paid of $42 (the most that can be lost).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>撇开即将发布的财报，从数字上看，当前最有意义的交易无疑是到期日为 12 月 19 日的 17/18 牛市看涨期权价差。这笔交易涉及购买 17 美元的看涨期权，同时出售 18 美元的看涨期权，净支出为 42 美元（最多可能损失的金额）。</p>
</div><p>Should RKT stock rise through the second-leg strike ($18) at expiration, the maximum profit would be $58, a payout of over 138%. Breakeven lands at $17.42, which appears to be a realistic target based on the aforementioned price clustering dynamics.17</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 RKT 股票在到期时突破第二个行使价（18 美元），最大利润将为 58 美元，收益超过 138%。盈亏平衡点为 17.42 美元，这基于上述价格聚集动态，似乎是一个现实的目标。</p>
</div><p>However, those folks who want to bet on a positive earnings report may consider the same geometric 17/18 spread but for the Nov. 21 expiration date. That would lead to a maximum payout of roughly 133%. Breakeven would come in at $17.43, which is ambitious because of the shortened time period. However, the cheaper net debit of $43 might entice speculators.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，那些希望押注于积极财报的人可能会考虑相同的几何 17/18 价差，但到期日为 11 月 21 日。这将导致最大收益约为 133%。盈亏平衡点为 17.43 美元，这在时间较短的情况下显得有些雄心勃勃。然而，较便宜的净支出 43 美元可能会吸引投机者。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>The opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>本文中表达的意见和观点仅代表个人作者的看法，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文提供的任何信息的准确性或可靠性不承担责任。本文仅供信息参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的意见或信息，并在做出投资决策之前进行自己的尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Options Corner: United Parcel Service’s Earnings Beat Opens The Door For A Quick Strike</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>期权角落：联合包裹的盈利超预期为快速进攻打开了大门</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Options Corner: A Shifting Real Estate Landscape Shines A Bullish Spotlight On Rocket Companies

- Rocket Companies Inc (NYSE:RKT) 股票因美联储降息而上涨。  
- 预计第三季度收益为每股 3 美分，收入为 16.9 亿美元。  
- 投资者可考虑 17/18 看涨期权差价交易。  

期权角：不断变化的房地产格局为 Rocket Companies 带来了看涨的关注