<p>（更新于纽约早晨时间）</p>
<p>日本央行维持利率，令希望鹰派立场的交易者失望</p>
<p>美联储降低了对 12 月降息的预期，美元上涨</p>
<p>欧元和英镑下跌，因欧洲央行和英格兰银行维持利率不变</p>
<p>作者：Karen Brettell</p>
<p>纽约，10 月 31 日（路透社）——在日本央行令希望未来加息更加鹰派的交易者失望后，日元在周五面临对美元的月度亏损，而美联储则降低了对 12 月降息的预期。周五，日元在日本财政大臣片山さつき表示政府正在高度关注外汇波动以应对日元贬值后，收复了一些失地。数据显示，10 月份日本首都的核心通胀加速上升，并且仍高于中央银行 2% 的目标。但由于日本央行行长上田和夫对未来加息采取了低于预期的温和立场，且日本央行在周四将利率维持在 0.5% 不变，令市场感到失望，限制了日元的涨幅。</p>
<p>State Street Global Markets 的全球宏观策略师 Noel Dixon 表示，他对日元持建设性看法，称 “日本央行最终仍然需要将政策正常化，至少达到 1%。”</p>
<p>“从多年的角度来看，工资绝对高于以往……财政支出只会加剧这一前景，” Dixon 说道。</p>
<p>日本新当选的领导人高市早苗预计将追求更具财政扩张性的政策以促进经济增长。</p>
<p>日元（JPY=）最后上涨 0.09%，报 153.96 兑美元。它正面临自 7 月以来最糟糕的一个月，本月美元对该货币上涨了 4.1%。</p>
<p>美元指数（=USD）上涨 0.28%，至 99.75，正朝着 2% 的月度涨幅迈进，这是自 7 月以来的最佳表现。</p>
<p>尽管劳动力市场疲软，但美元因对经济前景的乐观情绪而受到提振，而美联储政策制定者仍对通胀表示担忧。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三表示，美国中央银行内部的政策分歧以及缺乏联邦政府数据可能使得今年再降息的可能性变得渺茫。</p>
<p>“听起来他只是想给自己留一些选择空间，” Dixon 说道。</p>
<p>美联储在周三如预期降息，尽管有两位政策制定者表示反对。行长斯蒂芬·米兰再次呼吁进一步降低借贷成本，而堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长杰弗里·施密德则支持不降息。施密德在周五表示，他之所以反对是因为持续的高通胀和经济中价格压力扩散的迹象可能会引发对中央银行对其 2% 通胀目标承诺的怀疑。</p>
<p>根据 CME 集团的 FedWatch 工具，联邦基金期货交易者现在预计 12 月降息的概率为 63%，低于一周前的 92%。</p>
<p>Dixon 表示，他预计美元指数将在约 102 的技术阻力位下整固，然后在明年增长可能加速时上涨。</p>
<p>“从持仓的角度来看，很明显，投资者，至少从真实资金的角度来看，已经在空头方面达到极限，所以我认为做空是困难的，” 他补充道。欧元（EUR=）在欧洲央行连续第三次会议上将利率维持在 2% 不变后下跌 0.27%，报 1.1534 美元，并重申该政策处于 “良好状态”，因为经济风险正在减退。本月欧元下跌了 1.7%，而美元普遍上涨。英镑（GBP=）下跌 0.28%，报 1.3113 美元，为 4 月 14 日以来的最低水平，因围绕英国财政大臣瑞秋·里夫斯的政治压力加大。英镑兑欧元的汇率达到自 2023 年 5 月以来的最低水平。</p>
<p>英镑本月面临 2.5% 的跌幅，而由于对里夫斯 11 月预算可能对企业、家庭和整体经济活动的影响的担忧，英国国债收益率下降。</p>
<p>交易者也在定价英格兰银行降息的可能性上升，尽管预计英国央行在下周的会议上最有可能维持利率不变。</p>
<p>在加密货币方面，比特币（BTC=）上涨 2.37%，至 110,080 美元。</p>

8301

<p>日本 yen 预计将迎来自七月以来最糟糕的月度跌幅，此前日本银行决定维持利率，令交易者感到失望。本月美元对日元上涨了 4.1%，而美联储的立场则抑制了市场对十二月降息的预期。欧元和英镑也因欧洲央行和英格兰银行维持利率不变而下跌。分析师对日元的未来持乐观态度，预计政策将会正常化。在这些发展中，比特币上涨了 2.37%，达到了 110,080 美元</p>

<p>(Updated in New York morning time)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（更新于纽约早晨时间）</p>
</div><p>BOJ maintains rates, disappoints traders hoping for hawkish stance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本央行维持利率，令希望鹰派立场的交易者失望</p>
</div><p>Fed dampens expectations for December rate cut, dollar gains</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储降低了对 12 月降息的预期，美元上涨</p>
</div><p>Euro and sterling fall as ECB and BOE maintain rates</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元和英镑下跌，因欧洲央行和英格兰银行维持利率不变</p>
</div><p>By Karen Brettell</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Karen Brettell</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The Japanese yen was heading for a monthly loss against the U.S. dollar on Friday after the Bank of Japan disappointed traders hoping for a more hawkish stance on future rate hikes, while the Federal Reserve dampened expectations for a December rate cut. The yen clawed back some losses on Friday after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that the government has been monitoring foreign exchange movements with a high sense of urgency as the yen weakens. Core inflation in Japan’s capital also accelerated in October and stayed above the central bank’s 2% target, data showed on Friday. But disappointment after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda adopted a less-hawkish tone on future rate hikes than hoped as the Japanese central bank kept rates on hold at 0.5% on Thursday limited gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，10 月 31 日（路透社）——在日本央行令希望未来加息更加鹰派的交易者失望后，日元在周五面临对美元的月度亏损，而美联储则降低了对 12 月降息的预期。周五，日元在日本财政大臣片山さつき表示政府正在高度关注外汇波动以应对日元贬值后，收复了一些失地。数据显示，10 月份日本首都的核心通胀加速上升，并且仍高于中央银行 2% 的目标。但由于日本央行行长上田和夫对未来加息采取了低于预期的温和立场，且日本央行在周四将利率维持在 0.5% 不变，令市场感到失望，限制了日元的涨幅。</p>
</div><p>Noel Dixon, global macro strategist at State Street Global Markets, says he remains constructive on the yen, saying that “the BOJ ultimately is still going to have to normalize policy at least to 1%.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>State Street Global Markets 的全球宏观策略师 Noel Dixon 表示，他对日元持建设性看法，称 “日本央行最终仍然需要将政策正常化，至少达到 1%。”</p>
</div><p>“From a multi-year perspective, wages are definitely higher than they’ve been… and the fiscal spending is only going to exacerbate that prospect,” Dixon said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“从多年的角度来看，工资绝对高于以往……财政支出只会加剧这一前景，” Dixon 说道。</p>
</div><p>Japan’s newly elected leader Sanae Takaichi is expected to pursue more fiscally expansive policies to boost economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本新当选的领导人高市早苗预计将追求更具财政扩张性的政策以促进经济增长。</p>
</div><p>The yen (JPY=) was last up 0.09% against the greenback at 153.96 per dollar. It is heading for its worst month since July, with the dollar up 4.1% against the currency this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元（JPY=）最后上涨 0.09%，报 153.96 兑美元。它正面临自 7 月以来最糟糕的一个月，本月美元对该货币上涨了 4.1%。</p>
</div><p>The dollar index (=USD) rose 0.28% to 99.75 and is on track for a 2% monthly gain, its best since July.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元指数（=USD）上涨 0.28%，至 99.75，正朝着 2% 的月度涨幅迈进，这是自 7 月以来的最佳表现。</p>
</div><p>The greenback has been boosted by more optimism over the economic outlook even as the labor market weakens, while Fed policymakers remain concerned about inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that a policy divide within the U.S. central bank and a lack of federal government data may put another interest rate cut out of reach this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管劳动力市场疲软，但美元因对经济前景的乐观情绪而受到提振，而美联储政策制定者仍对通胀表示担忧。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三表示，美国中央银行内部的政策分歧以及缺乏联邦政府数据可能使得今年再降息的可能性变得渺茫。</p>
</div><p>“It sounded like he was just trying to give himself some optionality,” said Dixon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“听起来他只是想给自己留一些选择空间，” Dixon 说道。</p>
</div><p>The Fed cut rates on Wednesday, as expected, though two policymakers dissented. Governor Stephen Miran again called for a deeper reduction in borrowing costs, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid favored no cut. Schmid said on Friday that he dissented out of concern that continued high inflation and signs of price pressures spreading in the economy could raise doubts about the central bank’s commitment to its 2% inflation target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储在周三如预期降息，尽管有两位政策制定者表示反对。行长斯蒂芬·米兰再次呼吁进一步降低借贷成本，而堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长杰弗里·施密德则支持不降息。施密德在周五表示，他之所以反对是因为持续的高通胀和经济中价格压力扩散的迹象可能会引发对中央银行对其 2% 通胀目标承诺的怀疑。</p>
</div><p>Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 63% probability of a cut in December, down from 92% a week ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CME 集团的 FedWatch 工具，联邦基金期货交易者现在预计 12 月降息的概率为 63%，低于一周前的 92%。</p>
</div><p>Dixon said he expects the dollar index to consolidate under technical resistance at around 102, before gaining next year when growth is likely to accelerate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Dixon 表示，他预计美元指数将在约 102 的技术阻力位下整固，然后在明年增长可能加速时上涨。</p>
</div><p>“From a positioning standpoint, it’s clear that investors, at least from a real money perspective, are maxed out from a short perspective, so I think it’s difficult to short it,” he added. The euro (EUR=) fell 0.27% to $1.1534 after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 2% for the third meeting in a row on Thursday and repeated that policy was in a “good place” as economic risks recede. The euro has fallen 1.7% this month, as the dollar gains broadly. Sterling (GBP=) fell 0.28% to $1.3113, the lowest since April 14, as political pressures grew surrounding British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. Against the euro, the pound reached its weakest since May 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“从持仓的角度来看，很明显，投资者，至少从真实资金的角度来看，已经在空头方面达到极限，所以我认为做空是困难的，” 他补充道。欧元（EUR=）在欧洲央行连续第三次会议上将利率维持在 2% 不变后下跌 0.27%，报 1.1534 美元，并重申该政策处于 “良好状态”，因为经济风险正在减退。本月欧元下跌了 1.7%，而美元普遍上涨。英镑（GBP=）下跌 0.28%，报 1.3113 美元，为 4 月 14 日以来的最低水平，因围绕英国财政大臣瑞秋·里夫斯的政治压力加大。英镑兑欧元的汇率达到自 2023 年 5 月以来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>The pound is heading for a 2.5% drop this month, while gilt yields have dropped on concern over what Reeves’ November budget might mean for businesses, households and overall economic activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英镑本月面临 2.5% 的跌幅，而由于对里夫斯 11 月预算可能对企业、家庭和整体经济活动的影响的担忧，英国国债收益率下降。</p>
</div><p>Traders are also pricing in rising odds of a Bank of England interest rate cut, though the British central bank is viewed as most likely keeping rates on hold when it meets next week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者也在定价英格兰银行降息的可能性上升，尽管预计英国央行在下周的会议上最有可能维持利率不变。</p>
</div><p>In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin (BTC=) gained 2.37% to $110,080.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在加密货币方面，比特币（BTC=）上涨 2.37%，至 110,080 美元。</p>
</div>

外汇市场 - 由于日本央行的表现令人失望，日元面临自 7 月以来的最大月度跌幅