<p>2025 年 10 月的标普 500 股票行业轮换图表可以在这里找到。您可以在这里阅读更多关于方法论和基础资产的信息。此外，9 月份的版本可以在这里找到。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2018/07/23/12/05/stock-exchange-3556719_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2018/07/23/12/05/stock-exchange-3556719_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>股票投资者目前处于一个令人羡慕的位置，既能享受收益又能获得回报。如果我告诉您，通过投资于市场领先的美国科技公司，您可以超越标普 500，并通过增加非美国股票进一步增强这种超越，您会觉得这听起来太美好了？其实，既是，也不是。</p>
<p>下图显示，美国科技（XLK）和 FTSE 非美国所有股票（VEU）正在发挥重要作用，成为唯一两个相对于 SPX 提供超额回报并且动能加速的组成部分。通信服务（XLC）也显示出超额回报，但动能减缓，尽管它在广泛上与 XLK 有类似的暴露。这种超越发生在整体股票表现稳健的背景下。</p>
<p>截至 10 月底，IVV ETF 的年化总回报率为 22%——表现强劲，但并不算特别。我的样本中之前的峰值接近 40%，不包括从初始 COVID 暴跌的深渊中几乎 80% 的激增。</p>
<p>VEU 回到右上象限给人一种全球股票反弹基础广泛的印象。然而，仔细观察会发现，这仍然主要是一个由人工智能驱动的故事。</p>
<p>VEU 的最大成分股包括台积电和 ASML 控股，这两者都是纯粹的人工智能投资，同时还有三星和 SAP SE，至少部分受相同主题的驱动。腾讯和阿里巴巴也出现在前 10 大持股中，这些公司最近受益于对新兴市场股票的更广泛轮换，作为一个独立因素。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/57b069bbb3db2b8d0eb2d600/668208c0-f021-4eb0-a8e7-19688c98acc5/Screenshot+2025-11-01+at+11.18.04.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/57b069bbb3db2b8d0eb2d600/668208c0-f021-4eb0-a8e7-19688c98acc5/Screenshot+2025-11-01+at+11.18.04.png"/></p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p>上个月我对人工智能是否是泡沫进行了思考，并将简单重复一个关键点：领导层狭窄的市场并不一定是一个不健康的市场。事实上，最近的历史表明，正是当领导层狭窄时——通常由科技股驱动——市场往往会提供最强劲的回报。</p>
<p>也就是说，领导层狭窄的市场本质上更具风险。今天持有所谓的全球市场投资组合使投资者面临的特定股票和主题风险显著高于许多人所意识到的，或者如果他们意识到的话，也不愿意接受。</p>
<p>投资者如何减轻这些风险？</p>
<p>一种方法，如我在这里试图概述的，是通过分配到非增长和非动量行业来接受一些表现不佳，期望这些领域将作为多样化因素——在更广泛、更狭窄的市场回落时呈负相关。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，上述框架目前指向至少两个传统防御性行业的机会：消费品（XLP）和医疗保健（XLV），这两个行业在最近几个月表现显著不佳。考虑到该行业相对表现良好——部分由于其通过与技术相关的能源需求上升间接暴露于人工智能——我不太倾向于将公用事业纳入这个范围。</p>
<p>在其他方面，房地产（XLRE）仍然被视为在激进的美联储宽松周期中的潜在投资机会——如果您相信我们正朝着这个方向发展。材料（XLB）也显得相对疲弱，尽管该行业严重暴露于单一名称风险，前十大持股占据了超过 50% 的投资组合。</p>
<p>与此同时，能源（XLE）则坚决回到了低迷状态——在 9 月份短暂尝试实现一些超越后滑入左下象限。最后，工业（XLI）和金融（XLF）在过去一个月相对也失去了地盘。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>关税，什么关税？</p>
<p>美元疲软的海妖之歌</p>
<p>2025 年 9 月股票行业轮换图表 - 热度高，且狭窄</p>

标普 500 ETF - iShares

塔吉特

开市客

克罗格

<p>2025 年 10 月的标普 500 股票行业轮换图表突显了美国科技公司和非美国股票，特别是在人工智能驱动行业中的强劲表现。IVV ETF 显示出 22% 的年化回报率。尽管狭窄的市场领导地位可能表明强劲的回报，但也带来了风险。建议投资者通过配置防御性行业，如消费品和医疗保健，来实现多元化，这些行业最近表现不佳。房地产仍被低估，而能源和工业则失去了优势</p>

<p>The October 2025 edition of the S&amp;P 500 equity sector rotation chartbook can be found here. You can read more about the methodology and underlying assets here. Additionally, September's edition can be found here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年 10 月的标普 500 股票行业轮换图表可以在这里找到。您可以在这里阅读更多关于方法论和基础资产的信息。此外，9 月份的版本可以在这里找到。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2018/07/23/12/05/stock-exchange-3556719_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2018/07/23/12/05/stock-exchange-3556719_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>Equity investors are currently in the enviable position of having their cake and eating it too. What if I told you that you could outperform the S&amp;P 500 by investing in market-leading U.S. technology firms—and enhance that outperformance further by adding non-U.S. equities? Sounds too good to be true? Well, yes and no.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票投资者目前处于一个令人羡慕的位置，既能享受收益又能获得回报。如果我告诉您，通过投资于市场领先的美国科技公司，您可以超越标普 500，并通过增加非美国股票进一步增强这种超越，您会觉得这听起来太美好了？其实，既是，也不是。</p>
</div><p>The chart below shows that U.S. tech (XLK) and FTSE non-U.S. all shares (VEU) are doing the heavy lifting, as the only two components delivering both excess returns relative to the SPX and accelerating momentum. Communication services (XLC) also shows excess returns but with decelerating momentum, though it broadly captures similar exposure to XLK. This outperformance is occurring against a backdrop of solid overall equity performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下图显示，美国科技（XLK）和 FTSE 非美国所有股票（VEU）正在发挥重要作用，成为唯一两个相对于 SPX 提供超额回报并且动能加速的组成部分。通信服务（XLC）也显示出超额回报，但动能减缓，尽管它在广泛上与 XLK 有类似的暴露。这种超越发生在整体股票表现稳健的背景下。</p>
</div><p>As of the end of October, the IVV ETF was posting a trailing annual total return of 22%—a strong showing, though not exceptional. Previous peaks in my sample have approached 40%, excluding the nearly 80% surge from the depths of the initial COVID plunge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 10 月底，IVV ETF 的年化总回报率为 22%——表现强劲，但并不算特别。我的样本中之前的峰值接近 40%，不包括从初始 COVID 暴跌的深渊中几乎 80% 的激增。</p>
</div><p>The return of VEU to the top-right quadrant gives the impression of a broadening base for the global equity rally. However, a closer look reveals that it’s still largely an AI-driven story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>VEU 回到右上象限给人一种全球股票反弹基础广泛的印象。然而，仔细观察会发现，这仍然主要是一个由人工智能驱动的故事。</p>
</div><p>VEU’s largest constituents include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and ASML Holding, both pure AI plays, along with Samsung and SAP SE, which are at least partially driven by the same themes. Tencent and Alibaba also appear among the top 10 holdings, names that have recently benefited from a broader rotation into emerging market equities as a standalone factor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>VEU 的最大成分股包括台积电和 ASML 控股，这两者都是纯粹的人工智能投资，同时还有三星和 SAP SE，至少部分受相同主题的驱动。腾讯和阿里巴巴也出现在前 10 大持股中，这些公司最近受益于对新兴市场股票的更广泛轮换，作为一个独立因素。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/57b069bbb3db2b8d0eb2d600/668208c0-f021-4eb0-a8e7-19688c98acc5/Screenshot+2025-11-01+at+11.18.04.png" alt="" original-src="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/57b069bbb3db2b8d0eb2d600/668208c0-f021-4eb0-a8e7-19688c98acc5/Screenshot+2025-11-01+at+11.18.04.png"/></p>
<p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p>I ran through my thoughts on whether AI is a bubble last month, and will simply repeat one key point: a market with narrow leadership isn’t necessarily an unhealthy market. In fact, recent history suggests that it’s precisely when leadership narrows—typically driven by technology stocks—that the market tends to deliver its strongest returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个月我对人工智能是否是泡沫进行了思考，并将简单重复一个关键点：领导层狭窄的市场并不一定是一个不健康的市场。事实上，最近的历史表明，正是当领导层狭窄时——通常由科技股驱动——市场往往会提供最强劲的回报。</p>
</div><p>That said, a market with narrow leadership is inherently riskier. Holding the proverbial global market portfolio today exposes investors to significantly more idiosyncratic equity and thematic risk than many may realize—or would willingly accept if they did.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，领导层狭窄的市场本质上更具风险。今天持有所谓的全球市场投资组合使投资者面临的特定股票和主题风险显著高于许多人所意识到的，或者如果他们意识到的话，也不愿意接受。</p>
</div><p>How can investors mitigate such risks?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者如何减轻这些风险？</p>
</div><p>One approach, as I attempt to outline here, is to accept some underperformance by allocating to non-growth and non-momentum sectors, with the expectation that these areas will act as diversifiers—negatively correlated when the broader, narrower market rolls over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一种方法，如我在这里试图概述的，是通过分配到非增长和非动量行业来接受一些表现不佳，期望这些领域将作为多样化因素——在更广泛、更狭窄的市场回落时呈负相关。</p>
</div><p>In that context, the framework above currently points to opportunities in at least two traditional defensive sectors: Consumer staples (XLP) and healthcare (XLV), both of which have significantly underperformed in recent months. I’m less inclined to include utilities in this bucket, given that the sector has performed relatively well—thanks in part to its indirect exposure to AI through the rising energy demands associated with the technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，上述框架目前指向至少两个传统防御性行业的机会：消费品（XLP）和医疗保健（XLV），这两个行业在最近几个月表现显著不佳。考虑到该行业相对表现良好——部分由于其通过与技术相关的能源需求上升间接暴露于人工智能——我不太倾向于将公用事业纳入这个范围。</p>
</div><p>Elsewhere, real estate (XLRE) still appears undervalued as a potential play on an aggressive Fed easing cycle—if that’s the path you believe we’re heading toward. Materials (XLB) also look relatively weak, though this sector is heavily exposed to single-name risk, with the top ten holdings making up well over 50% of the portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其他方面，房地产（XLRE）仍然被视为在激进的美联储宽松周期中的潜在投资机会——如果您相信我们正朝着这个方向发展。材料（XLB）也显得相对疲弱，尽管该行业严重暴露于单一名称风险，前十大持股占据了超过 50% 的投资组合。</p>
</div><p>Energy (XLE), meanwhile, is firmly back in the doghouse—slipping into the lower-left quadrant—after a brief attempt to carve out some outperformance in September. Finally, industrials (XLI) and financials (XLF) have also lost ground over the past month in relative terms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，能源（XLE）则坚决回到了低迷状态——在 9 月份短暂尝试实现一些超越后滑入左下象限。最后，工业（XLI）和金融（XLF）在过去一个月相对也失去了地盘。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Tariffs, What Tariffs?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关税，什么关税？</p>
</div><p>The Siren Song Of Dollar Weakness</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元疲软的海妖之歌</p>
</div><p>Equity Sector Rotation Chartbook For September 2025 - Running Hot, And Narrow</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年 9 月股票行业轮换图表 - 热度高，且狭窄</p>
</div>

2025 年 10 月股票板块轮动图表册 - Nirvana