<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/08/26/10/47/businessman-2682712__340.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/08/26/10/47/businessman-2682712__340.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>亚洲投资者的风险情绪恢复，市场从前一交易日的剧烈损失中反弹。此次反弹受到强于预期的美国经济数据的推动，重新点燃了投资者的信心，并将注意力重新聚焦于接近历史高点的指数。对科技股估值过高的担忧似乎暂时缓解，因为周三的急剧抛售并未升级为广泛的恐慌。在香港，Pony Ai 和 WeRide 的股票在这两家中国自动驾驶公司上市时出现下跌。这两家公司通过股票发行共筹集了近 12 亿美元。今天晚些时候，几位美联储官员预计将发表演讲，可能会提供有关美国利率未来走向的见解。美国经济的韧性已经促使交易员降低了对 12 月降息的预期。市场现在估计 25 个基点降息的可能性为 61%，低于本周早些时候的约 70%。与此同时，在贸易方面，美国最高法院大法官周三对前总统唐纳德·特朗普的广泛关税的合法性表示怀疑。此案对全球经济具有重要影响，代表了对特朗普实施此类措施的权力范围的重大挑战。</p>
<p>ADP 报告显示结果喜忧参半：整体就业增长超出预期（+42k 对比 30k 中位数，修正前为-29k），但中小企业连续第三个月裁员（-10k，-21k），而大型企业则增加了 73k 的招聘。从地区来看，西部增加了 40k 的就业，而东北部则减少了 12k。从行业来看，贸易、运输和公用事业（+47k）以及教育和健康（+25k）领涨，但专业/商业服务（-15k）和信息（-17k）则出现下降。劳动力市场反映出在更广泛的疲软中集中增长，符合今年的趋势。虽然之前的美联储降息解决了劳动力问题，但当前数据表明没有进一步降息的迫切需要。地区美联储调查显示劳动力市场缓慢但稳定，缺乏通胀数据，12 月降息似乎不太可能。</p>
<p>围绕今天英国货币政策委员会（MPC）会议的情绪表明，降息和维持利率的可能性呈现出更为平衡的 50/50 分布，偏离了市场的定价，后者倾向于约 25/75 的降息/维持概率。维持利率的理由在于四位鹰派成员（Mann、Pill、Greene、Lombardelli）的存在，他们极不可能支持降息，特别是在最新的季度通胀态度调查的背景下。要实现降息，剩余的五位成员都需要达成一致。在他们中，Taylor 是最有可能支持降息的，基于最近的评论。Dhingra 也预计会投票支持降息，主要是由于她的一贯立场。Ramsden 可能倾向于鸽派，但 Breeden 和 Bailey 仍然不确定。总体来看，预计行长将选择不变，以承认鹰派对通胀持续性的担忧。此决定可能旨在维持他们对 2026 年潜在银行利率降低的支持，当时 CPI 预计将从当前高点下降。然而，该决定仍然处于微妙的平衡中。此外，请注意，英格兰银行正在修订其沟通格式。每位 MPC 成员现在将在会议纪要中有一个专门的段落来解释他们的个人立场，货币政策报告（MPR）的格式也在进行更改。</p>
<h3><strong>隔夜头条</strong></h3>
<ul>
<li>较弱的数据将在秋季预算前考验英格兰银行的决心</li>
<li>英格兰银行将在通胀减弱和预算临近的情况下做出紧缩利率的决定</li>
<li>Reeves 准备在预算中公布电动车司机按里程收费的计划</li>
<li>Reeves 将使英国银行免于预算税收袭击</li>
<li>欧盟委员会考虑在预算上安抚议会</li>
<li>Pfizer 与 Novo 在肥胖生物科技 Metsera 的收购战中持平</li>
<li>特朗普在最高法院的艰难日使关税岌岌可危</li>
<li>Nvidia 首席执行官表示中国将在人工智能竞赛中 “获胜”</li>
<li>Arm Holdings 的利润因创纪录的需求而上升</li>
<li>Qualcomm 因税收费用转亏为盈；收入上升</li>
<li>Snap 与人工智能初创公司 Perplexity 达成 4 亿美元交易后股价飙升</li>
<li>美国将在 40 个机场削减 10% 的航班以应对停摆干扰</li>
<li>法国将在零售商在巴黎开设旗舰店时禁止 Shein</li>
<li>加拿大央行将裁减 10% 的职位，Carney 瞄准公共部门</li>
<li>由于赤字和养老金问题，标准普尔将芝加哥前景下调一个档次</li>
<li>沙特将主要石油价格下调至亚洲，出现谨慎迹象</li>
<li>日本执政联盟伙伴警告不要发出混合信号的日本央行加息</li>
</ul>
<h3><strong>纽约时间上午 10 点的外汇期权到期</strong></h3>
<p>(1BLN+ 代表较大到期，在日内 ATR 交易时更具吸引力)</p>
<ul>
<li>EUR/USD: 1.1400 (20 亿)，1.1415-25 (15 亿)，1.1440-50 (13 亿)</li>
<li>1.1490-00 (27 亿)，1.1505-15 (9.44 亿)，1.1525 (5.3 亿)，1.1550 (20 亿)</li>
<li>1.1570-80 (9.08 亿)，1.1590-00 (25 亿)，1.1615-20 (3.93 亿)</li>
<li>USD/JPY: 152.45-50 (10 亿)，152.75 (5.01 亿)，153.00-08 (16.4 亿)</li>
<li>153.50 (4.27 亿)，153.70-75 (4 亿)，153.80-90 (11 亿)，154.00-05 (16 亿)</li>
<li>154.15-20 (7.83 亿)，154.35-40 (5.98 亿)，154.50-60 (18 亿)</li>
<li>USD/CHF: 0.8000-10 (8.18 亿)，0.8060 (3 亿)，0.8150 (6.5 亿)</li>
<li>EUR/CHF: 0.9290-95 (5.09 亿)。EUR/JPY: 177.00 (6.54 亿)</li>
<li>GBP/USD: 1.3000 (2.83 亿)，1.3100 (8.62 亿)，1.3200 (6.53 亿)</li>
<li>EUR/GBP: 0.8740-50 (7.29 亿)，0.8800-10 (10.4 亿)，0.8815-25 (3.64 亿)</li>
<li>AUD/USD: 0.6490-00 (6.93 亿)，0.6525-30 (8.56 亿)，0.6550-55 (7.73 亿)</li>
<li>0.6565-75 (3.98 亿)，0.6580-85 (4 亿)，0.6600-05 (11 亿)，0.6620-25 (5.87 亿)</li>
<li>NZD/USD: 0.5730 (6.5 亿)，0.5775-85 (5.69 亿)</li>
<li>USD/CAD: 1.4050 (2.77 亿)，1.4070-85 (7.31 亿)，1.4100-10 (3 亿)</li>
<li>USD/ZAR: 17.40 (2.08 亿)，17.50-55 (4.27 亿)</li>
</ul>
<h3><strong>截至 2025 年 9 月 10 日的 CFTC 持仓</strong></h3>
<p>-2025 年 10 月 1 日：在联邦政府停摆期间，交易者承诺报告将不会发布</p>
<h3><strong>技术与交易观点</strong></h3>
<p>SP500</p>
<ul>
<li>日内 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>周度 VWAP 看涨</li>
<li>在 6833 之上目标 6932</li>
<li>在 6817 之下目标 6630</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_us500_2025-11-06_09-40-17.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_us500_2025-11-06_09-40-17.webp"/></p>
<p>EURUSD</p>
<ul>
<li>日内 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>周度 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>在 1.1534 之上目标 1.16</li>
<li>在 1.1507 之下目标 1.14</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_eurusd_2025-11-06_09-41-23_638980163868931900.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_eurusd_2025-11-06_09-41-23_638980163868931900.webp"/></p>
<p>GBPUSD</p>
<ul>
<li>日内 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>周度 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>在 1.3120 之上目标 1.3178</li>
<li>在 1.3087 之下目标 1.2923</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_gbpusd_2025-11-06_09-42-48.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_gbpusd_2025-11-06_09-42-48.webp"/></p>
<p>USDJPY</p>
<ul>
<li>日内 VWAP 看涨</li>
<li>周度 VWAP 看涨</li>
<li>在 153.98 之上目标 154.73</li>
<li>在 153.93 之下目标 152.32</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_usdjpy_2025-11-06_09-44-30.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_usdjpy_2025-11-06_09-44-30.webp"/></p>
<p>XAUUSD</p>
<ul>
<li>日内 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>周度 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>在 3980 之上目标 4089</li>
<li>在 3969 之下目标 3849</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_xauusd_2025-11-06_09-45-56.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_xauusd_2025-11-06_09-45-56.webp"/></p>
<p>BTCUSD</p>
<ul>
<li>日内 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>周度 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>在 104.k 之上目标 108.1k</li>
<li>在 104.k 之下目标 97.4k</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_btcusd_2025-11-06_09-47-31.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_btcusd_2025-11-06_09-47-31.webp"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者：</em></p>
<p>FTSE 收盘线 - 11 月 5 日，星期三</p>
<p>每日市场展望 - 11 月 5 日，星期三</p>
<p>每日市场展望 - 11 月 4 日，星期二</p>

小马智行

文远知行

<p>亚洲投资者的风险情绪改善，市场从之前的损失中反弹，受到强劲的美国经济数据推动。对科技股估值过高的担忧有所缓解，而香港的小马智行和文远知行首次亮相，筹集了近 12 亿美元。今天美联储的讲话可能会影响利率预期，目前有 61% 的可能性会降息 25 个基点。美国最高法院质疑特朗普的关税政策，影响全球贸易。ADP 报告显示就业增长情况喜忧参半，表明劳动力市场稳定。英国货币政策委员会会议暗示对利率的决定存在分歧，可能会在沟通形式上进行调整</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/08/26/10/47/businessman-2682712__340.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/08/26/10/47/businessman-2682712__340.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>Asian investors' risk sentiment recovered, with markets bouncing back from the sharp losses witnessed in the previous session. This rebound was fuelled by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, which reignited investor confidence and drew attention back to indexes hovering near record highs. Concerns over overvalued technology stocks appear to have eased for now, as Wednesday's steep selloff didn’t escalate into widespread panic. In Hong Kong, shares of Pony Ai and WeRide saw declines as the Chinese autonomous driving companies made their market debut. The two firms collectively raised close to $1.2 billion through their share offerings. Later today, several Federal Reserve officials are expected to deliver speeches, potentially providing insights into the future trajectory of U.S. interest rates. The resilience of the American economy has already prompted traders to scale back expectations for a December rate cut. Markets now estimate a 61% likelihood of a 25-basis-point reduction, down from around 70% earlier in the week. Meanwhile, on the trade front, U.S. Supreme Court justices expressed scepticism on Wednesday regarding the legality of former President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs. This case, which carries significant implications for the global economy, represents a critical challenge to the extent of Trump's authority in imposing such measures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚洲投资者的风险情绪恢复，市场从前一交易日的剧烈损失中反弹。此次反弹受到强于预期的美国经济数据的推动，重新点燃了投资者的信心，并将注意力重新聚焦于接近历史高点的指数。对科技股估值过高的担忧似乎暂时缓解，因为周三的急剧抛售并未升级为广泛的恐慌。在香港，Pony Ai 和 WeRide 的股票在这两家中国自动驾驶公司上市时出现下跌。这两家公司通过股票发行共筹集了近 12 亿美元。今天晚些时候，几位美联储官员预计将发表演讲，可能会提供有关美国利率未来走向的见解。美国经济的韧性已经促使交易员降低了对 12 月降息的预期。市场现在估计 25 个基点降息的可能性为 61%，低于本周早些时候的约 70%。与此同时，在贸易方面，美国最高法院大法官周三对前总统唐纳德·特朗普的广泛关税的合法性表示怀疑。此案对全球经济具有重要影响，代表了对特朗普实施此类措施的权力范围的重大挑战。</p>
</div><p>The ADP report showed mixed results: overall job growth exceeded expectations (+42k vs. 30k median, up from a revised -29k), but small and medium firms cut jobs (-10k, -21k) for the third month, while large firms added +73k hires. Regionally, the West gained 40k jobs, while the Northeast lost 12k. Sector-wise, trade, transport, and utilities (+47k) and education and health (+25k) led gains, but professional/business services (-15k) and information (-17k) declined. The labour market reflects concentrated gains amid broader weakness, consistent with this year’s trend. While prior Fed rate cuts addressed labour concerns, current data suggests no immediate need for further cuts. Regional Fed surveys show a slow but stable labour market, and absent inflation data, a December cut seems unlikely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ADP 报告显示结果喜忧参半：整体就业增长超出预期（+42k 对比 30k 中位数，修正前为-29k），但中小企业连续第三个月裁员（-10k，-21k），而大型企业则增加了 73k 的招聘。从地区来看，西部增加了 40k 的就业，而东北部则减少了 12k。从行业来看，贸易、运输和公用事业（+47k）以及教育和健康（+25k）领涨，但专业/商业服务（-15k）和信息（-17k）则出现下降。劳动力市场反映出在更广泛的疲软中集中增长，符合今年的趋势。虽然之前的美联储降息解决了劳动力问题，但当前数据表明没有进一步降息的迫切需要。地区美联储调查显示劳动力市场缓慢但稳定，缺乏通胀数据，12 月降息似乎不太可能。</p>
</div><p>The sentiment surrounding today’s UK MPC meeting suggests a more balanced 50/50 split between a rate cut and a hold, diverging from the market's pricing, which leans towards a ~25/75 probability for a cut/hold. The argument for holding rates stems from the presence of four hawkish members (Mann, Pill, Greene, Lombardelli), who are highly unlikely to support a cut, particularly in light of the latest quarterly Inflation Attitudes survey. For a rate cut to occur, all five remaining members would need to align in favour. Among them, Taylor is the most likely to support a cut, based on recent comments. Dhingra is also expected to vote for a cut, largely due to her consistent stance. Ramsden could lean dovish, but Breeden and Bailey remain uncertain. On balance, it is anticipated that the Governor will opt for no change, acknowledging the hawks’ concerns about inflation persistence. This decision may aim to maintain their support for potential Bank Rate reductions in 2026, when CPI is expected to decline from its current peak. However, the decision remains finely poised. Additionally, note that the Bank of England is revising its communication format. Each MPC member will now have a dedicated paragraph in the minutes to explain their individual stance, and the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) format is undergoing changes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>围绕今天英国货币政策委员会（MPC）会议的情绪表明，降息和维持利率的可能性呈现出更为平衡的 50/50 分布，偏离了市场的定价，后者倾向于约 25/75 的降息/维持概率。维持利率的理由在于四位鹰派成员（Mann、Pill、Greene、Lombardelli）的存在，他们极不可能支持降息，特别是在最新的季度通胀态度调查的背景下。要实现降息，剩余的五位成员都需要达成一致。在他们中，Taylor 是最有可能支持降息的，基于最近的评论。Dhingra 也预计会投票支持降息，主要是由于她的一贯立场。Ramsden 可能倾向于鸽派，但 Breeden 和 Bailey 仍然不确定。总体来看，预计行长将选择不变，以承认鹰派对通胀持续性的担忧。此决定可能旨在维持他们对 2026 年潜在银行利率降低的支持，当时 CPI 预计将从当前高点下降。然而，该决定仍然处于微妙的平衡中。此外，请注意，英格兰银行正在修订其沟通格式。每位 MPC 成员现在将在会议纪要中有一个专门的段落来解释他们的个人立场，货币政策报告（MPR）的格式也在进行更改。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Overnight Headlines</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>隔夜头条</strong></h3>
</div><ul>
<li>Weaker Data To Test BoE Resolve Ahead Of Autumn Budget</li>
<li>BoE Set For Tight Rates Decision As Inflation Softens And Budget Looms</li>
<li>Reeves Poised To Unveil Plan For EV Drivers To Pay Per Mile Charges At Budget</li>
<li>Reeves Set To Spare UK Banks From Budget Tax Raid</li>
<li>EU Commission Weighs Appeasing Parliament On Budget</li>
<li>Pfizer Matches Novo Bid For Obesity Biotech Metsera As Takeover Battle Rages</li>
<li>Trump’s Tough Day At Supreme Court Puts Tariffs In Jeopardy</li>
<li>Nvidia Boss Says China ‘Will Win’ AI Race With US</li>
<li>Arm Holdings Profit Climbs On Record Demand</li>
<li>Qualcomm Swings To Q4 Loss On Tax Charge; Revenue Rises</li>
<li>Snap Shares Jump After $400M Deal With AI Start-Up Perplexity</li>
<li>US To Cut Flights 10% At 40 Airports Amid Shutdown Disruption</li>
<li>France To Ban Shein As Retailer Opens Flagship Store In Paris</li>
<li>Bank Of Canada To Slash 10% Of Jobs As Carney Targets Public Sector</li>
<li>Chicago Outlook Cut One Notch By S&amp;P On Deficits, Pension Woes</li>
<li>Saudis Cut Main Oil Price To Asia As Signs Of Caution Emerge</li>
<li>Japan’s Ruling Bloc Partner Warns Against Mixed-Message BoJ Hike</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>较弱的数据将在秋季预算前考验英格兰银行的决心</li>
<li>英格兰银行将在通胀减弱和预算临近的情况下做出紧缩利率的决定</li>
<li>Reeves 准备在预算中公布电动车司机按里程收费的计划</li>
<li>Reeves 将使英国银行免于预算税收袭击</li>
<li>欧盟委员会考虑在预算上安抚议会</li>
<li>Pfizer 与 Novo 在肥胖生物科技 Metsera 的收购战中持平</li>
<li>特朗普在最高法院的艰难日使关税岌岌可危</li>
<li>Nvidia 首席执行官表示中国将在人工智能竞赛中 “获胜”</li>
<li>Arm Holdings 的利润因创纪录的需求而上升</li>
<li>Qualcomm 因税收费用转亏为盈；收入上升</li>
<li>Snap 与人工智能初创公司 Perplexity 达成 4 亿美元交易后股价飙升</li>
<li>美国将在 40 个机场削减 10% 的航班以应对停摆干扰</li>
<li>法国将在零售商在巴黎开设旗舰店时禁止 Shein</li>
<li>加拿大央行将裁减 10% 的职位，Carney 瞄准公共部门</li>
<li>由于赤字和养老金问题，标准普尔将芝加哥前景下调一个档次</li>
<li>沙特将主要石油价格下调至亚洲，出现谨慎迹象</li>
<li>日本执政联盟伙伴警告不要发出混合信号的日本央行加息</li>
</ul>
</div><h3><strong>FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>纽约时间上午 10 点的外汇期权到期</strong></h3>
</div><p>(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(1BLN+ 代表较大到期，在日内 ATR 交易时更具吸引力)</p>
</div><ul>
<li>EUR/USD: 1.1400 (2.0BLN), 1.1415-25 (1.5BLN), 1.1440-50 (1.3BLN)</li>
<li>1.1490-00 (2.7BLN), 1.1505-15 (944M), 1.1525 (530M), 1.1550 (2.0BLN)</li>
<li>1.1570-80 (908M), 1.1590-00 (2.5BLN), 1.1615-20 (393M)</li>
<li>USD/JPY: 152.45-50 (1.0BLN), 152.75 (501M), 153.00-08 (1.64BLN)</li>
<li>153.50 (427M), 153.70-75 (400M), 153.80-90 (1.1BLN), 154.00-05 (1.6BLN)</li>
<li>154.15-20 (783M), 154.35-40 (598M), 154.50-60 (1.8BLN)</li>
<li>USD/CHF: 0.8000-10 (818M), 0.8060 (300M), 0.8150 (650M)</li>
<li>EUR/CHF: 0.9290-95 (509M). EUR/JPY: 177.00 (654M)</li>
<li>GBP/USD: 1.3000 (283M), 1.3100 (862M), 1.3200 (653M)</li>
<li>EUR/GBP: 0.8740-50 (729M), 0.8800-10 (1.04BLN), 0.8815-25 (364M)</li>
<li>AUD/USD: 0.6490-00 (693M), 0.6525-30 (856M), 0.6550-55 (773M)</li>
<li>0.6565-75 (398M), 0.6580-85 (400M), 0.6600-05 (1.1BLN), 0.6620-25 (587M)</li>
<li>NZD/USD: 0.5730 (650M), 0.5775-85 (569M)</li>
<li>USD/CAD: 1.4050 (277M), 1.4070-85 (731M), 1.4100-10 (300M)</li>
<li>USD/ZAR: 17.40 (208M), 17.50-55 (427M)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>EUR/USD: 1.1400 (20 亿)，1.1415-25 (15 亿)，1.1440-50 (13 亿)</li>
<li>1.1490-00 (27 亿)，1.1505-15 (9.44 亿)，1.1525 (5.3 亿)，1.1550 (20 亿)</li>
<li>1.1570-80 (9.08 亿)，1.1590-00 (25 亿)，1.1615-20 (3.93 亿)</li>
<li>USD/JPY: 152.45-50 (10 亿)，152.75 (5.01 亿)，153.00-08 (16.4 亿)</li>
<li>153.50 (4.27 亿)，153.70-75 (4 亿)，153.80-90 (11 亿)，154.00-05 (16 亿)</li>
<li>154.15-20 (7.83 亿)，154.35-40 (5.98 亿)，154.50-60 (18 亿)</li>
<li>USD/CHF: 0.8000-10 (8.18 亿)，0.8060 (3 亿)，0.8150 (6.5 亿)</li>
<li>EUR/CHF: 0.9290-95 (5.09 亿)。EUR/JPY: 177.00 (6.54 亿)</li>
<li>GBP/USD: 1.3000 (2.83 亿)，1.3100 (8.62 亿)，1.3200 (6.53 亿)</li>
<li>EUR/GBP: 0.8740-50 (7.29 亿)，0.8800-10 (10.4 亿)，0.8815-25 (3.64 亿)</li>
<li>AUD/USD: 0.6490-00 (6.93 亿)，0.6525-30 (8.56 亿)，0.6550-55 (7.73 亿)</li>
<li>0.6565-75 (3.98 亿)，0.6580-85 (4 亿)，0.6600-05 (11 亿)，0.6620-25 (5.87 亿)</li>
<li>NZD/USD: 0.5730 (6.5 亿)，0.5775-85 (5.69 亿)</li>
<li>USD/CAD: 1.4050 (2.77 亿)，1.4070-85 (7.31 亿)，1.4100-10 (3 亿)</li>
<li>USD/ZAR: 17.40 (2.08 亿)，17.50-55 (4.27 亿)</li>
</ul>
</div><h3><strong>CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 9/10/25</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>截至 2025 年 9 月 10 日的 CFTC 持仓</strong></h3>
</div><ul>
<li>October 1, 2025: During the shutdown of the federal government, Commitments of Traders Reports will not be published</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-2025 年 10 月 1 日：在联邦政府停摆期间，交易者承诺报告将不会发布</p>
</div><h3><strong>Technical &amp; Trade Views</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>技术与交易观点</strong></h3>
</div><p>SP500</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SP500</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Daily VWAP Bearish</li>
<li>Weekly VWAP Bullish</li>
<li>Above 6833 Target 6932</li>
<li>Below 6817 Target 6630</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日内 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>周度 VWAP 看涨</li>
<li>在 6833 之上目标 6932</li>
<li>在 6817 之下目标 6630</li>
</ul>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_us500_2025-11-06_09-40-17.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_us500_2025-11-06_09-40-17.webp"/></p>
<p>EURUSD</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EURUSD</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Daily VWAP Bearish</li>
<li>Weekly VWAP Bearish</li>
<li>Above 1.1534 Target 1.16</li>
<li>Below 1.1507 Target 1.14</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日内 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>周度 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>在 1.1534 之上目标 1.16</li>
<li>在 1.1507 之下目标 1.14</li>
</ul>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_eurusd_2025-11-06_09-41-23_638980163868931900.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_eurusd_2025-11-06_09-41-23_638980163868931900.webp"/></p>
<p>GBPUSD</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GBPUSD</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Daily VWAP Bearish</li>
<li>Weekly VWAP Bearish</li>
<li>Above 1.3120 Target 1.3178</li>
<li>Below 1.3087 Target 1.2923</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日内 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>周度 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>在 1.3120 之上目标 1.3178</li>
<li>在 1.3087 之下目标 1.2923</li>
</ul>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_gbpusd_2025-11-06_09-42-48.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_gbpusd_2025-11-06_09-42-48.webp"/></p>
<p>USDJPY</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>USDJPY</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Daily VWAP Bullish</li>
<li>Weekly VWAP Bullish</li>
<li>Above 153.98 Target 154.73</li>
<li>Below 153.93 Target 152.32</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日内 VWAP 看涨</li>
<li>周度 VWAP 看涨</li>
<li>在 153.98 之上目标 154.73</li>
<li>在 153.93 之下目标 152.32</li>
</ul>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_usdjpy_2025-11-06_09-44-30.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_usdjpy_2025-11-06_09-44-30.webp"/></p>
<p>XAUUSD</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>XAUUSD</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Daily VWAP Bearish</li>
<li>Weekly VWAP Bearish</li>
<li>Above 3980 Target 4089</li>
<li>Below 3969 Target 3849</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日内 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>周度 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>在 3980 之上目标 4089</li>
<li>在 3969 之下目标 3849</li>
</ul>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_xauusd_2025-11-06_09-45-56.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_xauusd_2025-11-06_09-45-56.webp"/></p>
<p>BTCUSD</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BTCUSD</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Daily VWAP Bearish</li>
<li>Weekly VWAP Bearish</li>
<li>Above 104.k Target 108.1k</li>
<li>Below 104.k Target 97.4k</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日内 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>周度 VWAP 看跌</li>
<li>在 104.k 之上目标 108.1k</li>
<li>在 104.k 之下目标 97.4k</li>
</ul>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_btcusd_2025-11-06_09-47-31.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/marija-shutarova/user_content/ckimages/orig_btcusd_2025-11-06_09-47-31.webp"/></p>
<hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
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每日市场展望 - 11 月 6 日，星期四