<h3>关键洞察</h3>
<ul>
<li>基于股息折现模型，Qeeka Home (Cayman) 的预计公允价值为 HK$0.27</li>
<li>当前股价 HK$0.26 表明 Qeeka Home (Cayman) 可能接近其公允价值交易</li>
<li>Qeeka Home (Cayman) 的同行目前平均溢价交易 16%</li>
</ul>
<p>Qeeka Home (Cayman) Inc. (HKG:1739) 的 11 月股价是否反映了其真实价值？今天，我们将通过预测公司的未来现金流并将其折现回今天的价值来估算股票的内在价值。我们将利用折现现金流（DCF）模型来实现这一目的。这听起来可能复杂，但实际上相当简单！</p>
<p>公司可以通过多种方式进行估值，因此我们要指出 DCF 并不适用于每种情况。如果您想了解更多关于折现现金流的信息，可以在 Simply Wall St 的分析模型中详细阅读计算背后的原理。</p>
<p>我们发现有 21 只美国股票预计明年将支付超过 6% 的股息收益率。查看完整列表，免费获取。</p>
<h2>模型</h2>
<p>我们必须以稍微不同于其他股票的方式计算 Qeeka Home (Cayman) 的价值，因为它是一家消费服务公司。在这种方法中，使用每股股息（DPS），因为自由现金流难以估计且通常不被分析师报告。除非公司将大部分自由现金流作为股息支付，否则这种方法通常会低估股票的价值。使用的是 “戈登增长模型”，该模型简单地假设股息支付将以可持续的增长率永远持续增长。预计股息将以 2.8% 的 10 年期国债收益率的 5 年平均值的年增长率增长。然后，我们以 7.6% 的股本成本将该数字折现到今天的价值。与当前股价 HK$0.3 相比，该公司在当前股价交易的基础上大约有 5.3% 的折扣，似乎处于公允价值。任何计算中的假设对估值有很大影响，因此最好将其视为粗略估计，而不是精确到最后一分钱。</p>
<p>每股价值 = 预期每股股息 / (折现率 - 永续增长率)</p>
<p>= CN¥0.05 / (7.6% – 2.8%)</p>
<p>= HK$0.3</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/asset/chart/570181176-dcf-1-dark-2/1762466934497?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/asset/chart/570181176-dcf-1-dark-2/1762466934497"/></p>
<p>SEHK:1739 折现现金流 2025 年 11 月 6 日</p>
<h2>假设</h2>
<p>我们要指出，折现现金流中最重要的输入是折现率和实际现金流。当然，投资的一部分是对公司未来表现的自我评估，因此请尝试自己进行计算并检查自己的假设。DCF 也不考虑行业的周期性或公司的未来资本需求，因此它并不能全面反映公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将 Qeeka Home (Cayman) 视为潜在股东，使用股本成本作为折现率，而不是资本成本（或加权平均资本成本，WACC），后者考虑了债务。在此计算中，我们使用了 7.6%，这是基于 0.911 的杠杆贝塔。贝塔是衡量股票波动性相对于整体市场的指标。我们从全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔中获得我们的贝塔，并在 0.8 到 2.0 之间施加限制，这是稳定业务的合理范围。</p>
<p>查看我们对 Qeeka Home (Cayman) 的最新分析</p>
<h3>Qeeka Home (Cayman) 的 SWOT 分析</h3>
<p><strong>优势</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>债务由收益良好覆盖。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>股息在市场上处于前 25% 的股息支付者中。</li>
</ul>
<p>1739 的股息信息。</p>
<p><strong>劣势</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>未发现 1739 的主要劣势。</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>机会</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>根据当前自由现金流，拥有超过 3 年的现金储备。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>当前股价低于我们估计的公允价值。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>缺乏分析师覆盖使得确定 1739 的收益前景变得困难。</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>威胁</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>债务未能得到经营现金流的良好覆盖。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>支付股息但公司未盈利。</li>
</ul>
<p>1739 是否具备应对威胁的能力？</p>
<h2>下一步：</h2>
<p>估值只是构建投资论点的一方面，它不应是您在研究公司时唯一关注的指标。DCF 模型并不是投资估值的终极答案。最好是应用不同的案例和假设，看看它们如何影响公司的估值。例如，公司的股本成本或无风险利率的变化可能会显著影响估值。对于 Qeeka Home (Cayman)，您还应该考虑三个进一步的因素：</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>风险</strong>：例如，我们发现 <strong>Qeeka Home (Cayman) 的 4 个警告信号</strong>（其中 2 个是重要的！）您需要在投资前考虑。</li>
<li><strong>其他高质量替代品</strong>：您喜欢全能型股票吗？探索我们互动的高质量股票列表，了解您可能错过的其他股票！</li>
<li><strong>其他环保公司</strong>：担心环境并认为消费者会越来越多地购买环保产品？浏览我们互动的公司列表，了解一些您可能未曾想到的股票！</li>
</ol>
<p>PS. Simply Wall St 每天更新每只香港股票的 DCF 计算，因此如果您想找到其他股票的内在价值，只需在此搜索。</p>

齐屹科技

<p>齐屹科技（开曼）有限公司（HKG:1739）的预计公允价值为 0.27 港元，目前股价为 0.26 港元，表明其交易接近公允价值。该公司采用股息折现模型进行估值，预计股息年增长率为 2.8%。现金流折现分析显示公允价值为 0.30 港元，略高于当前价格。主要优势包括强劲的盈利覆盖债务和具有竞争力的股息收益率，而劣势则包括盈利能力不足和分析师覆盖有限</p>

<h3>Key Insights</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键洞察</h3>
</div><ul>
<li>The projected fair value for Qeeka Home (Cayman) is HK$0.27 based on Dividend Discount Model</li>
<li>Current share price of HK$0.26 suggests Qeeka Home (Cayman) is potentially trading close to its fair value</li>
<li>Qeeka Home (Cayman)'s peers are currently trading at a premium of 16% on average</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>基于股息折现模型，Qeeka Home (Cayman) 的预计公允价值为 HK$0.27</li>
<li>当前股价 HK$0.26 表明 Qeeka Home (Cayman) 可能接近其公允价值交易</li>
<li>Qeeka Home (Cayman) 的同行目前平均溢价交易 16%</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Does the November share price for Qeeka Home (Cayman) Inc. (HKG:1739) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Qeeka Home (Cayman) Inc. (HKG:1739) 的 11 月股价是否反映了其真实价值？今天，我们将通过预测公司的未来现金流并将其折现回今天的价值来估算股票的内在价值。我们将利用折现现金流（DCF）模型来实现这一目的。这听起来可能复杂，但实际上相当简单！</p>
</div><p>Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司可以通过多种方式进行估值，因此我们要指出 DCF 并不适用于每种情况。如果您想了解更多关于折现现金流的信息，可以在 Simply Wall St 的分析模型中详细阅读计算背后的原理。</p>
</div><p>We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们发现有 21 只美国股票预计明年将支付超过 6% 的股息收益率。查看完整列表，免费获取。</p>
</div><h2>The Model</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>模型</h2>
</div><p>We have to calculate the value of Qeeka Home (Cayman) slightly differently to other stocks because it is a consumer services company. In this approach dividends per share (DPS) are used, as free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. Unless a company pays out the majority of its FCF as a dividend, this method will typically underestimate the value of the stock. The 'Gordon Growth Model' is used, which simply assumes that dividend payments will continue to increase at a sustainable growth rate forever. The dividend is expected to grow at an annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.8%. We then discount this figure to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.6%. Compared to the current share price of HK$0.3, the company appears about fair value at a 5.3% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们必须以稍微不同于其他股票的方式计算 Qeeka Home (Cayman) 的价值，因为它是一家消费服务公司。在这种方法中，使用每股股息（DPS），因为自由现金流难以估计且通常不被分析师报告。除非公司将大部分自由现金流作为股息支付，否则这种方法通常会低估股票的价值。使用的是 “戈登增长模型”，该模型简单地假设股息支付将以可持续的增长率永远持续增长。预计股息将以 2.8% 的 10 年期国债收益率的 5 年平均值的年增长率增长。然后，我们以 7.6% 的股本成本将该数字折现到今天的价值。与当前股价 HK$0.3 相比，该公司在当前股价交易的基础上大约有 5.3% 的折扣，似乎处于公允价值。任何计算中的假设对估值有很大影响，因此最好将其视为粗略估计，而不是精确到最后一分钱。</p>
</div><p>Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每股价值 = 预期每股股息 / (折现率 - 永续增长率)</p>
</div><p>= CN¥0.05 / (7.6% – 2.8%)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>= CN¥0.05 / (7.6% – 2.8%)</p>
</div><p>= HK$0.3</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>= HK$0.3</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/asset/chart/570181176-dcf-1-dark-2/1762466934497" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/asset/chart/570181176-dcf-1-dark-2/1762466934497"/></p>
<p>SEHK:1739 Discounted Cash Flow November 6th 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SEHK:1739 折现现金流 2025 年 11 月 6 日</p>
</div><h2>The Assumptions</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>假设</h2>
</div><p>We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Qeeka Home (Cayman) as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.911. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们要指出，折现现金流中最重要的输入是折现率和实际现金流。当然，投资的一部分是对公司未来表现的自我评估，因此请尝试自己进行计算并检查自己的假设。DCF 也不考虑行业的周期性或公司的未来资本需求，因此它并不能全面反映公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将 Qeeka Home (Cayman) 视为潜在股东，使用股本成本作为折现率，而不是资本成本（或加权平均资本成本，WACC），后者考虑了债务。在此计算中，我们使用了 7.6%，这是基于 0.911 的杠杆贝塔。贝塔是衡量股票波动性相对于整体市场的指标。我们从全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔中获得我们的贝塔，并在 0.8 到 2.0 之间施加限制，这是稳定业务的合理范围。</p>
</div><p>See our latest analysis for Qeeka Home (Cayman)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看我们对 Qeeka Home (Cayman) 的最新分析</p>
</div><h3>SWOT Analysis for Qeeka Home (Cayman)</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>Qeeka Home (Cayman) 的 SWOT 分析</h3>
</div><p><strong>Strength</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>优势</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>Debt is well covered by earnings.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>债务由收益良好覆盖。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>股息在市场上处于前 25% 的股息支付者中。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Dividend information for 1739.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1739 的股息信息。</p>
</div><p><strong>Weakness</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>劣势</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>No major weaknesses identified for 1739.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>未发现 1739 的主要劣势。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Opportunity</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>机会</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>根据当前自由现金流，拥有超过 3 年的现金储备。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>当前股价低于我们估计的公允价值。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine 1739's earnings prospects.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>缺乏分析师覆盖使得确定 1739 的收益前景变得困难。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Threat</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>威胁</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>债务未能得到经营现金流的良好覆盖。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Paying a dividend but company is unprofitable.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>支付股息但公司未盈利。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Is 1739 well equipped to handle threats?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1739 是否具备应对威胁的能力？</p>
</div><h2>Next Steps:</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>下一步：</h2>
</div><p>Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Qeeka Home (Cayman), there are three further factors you should consider:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>估值只是构建投资论点的一方面，它不应是您在研究公司时唯一关注的指标。DCF 模型并不是投资估值的终极答案。最好是应用不同的案例和假设，看看它们如何影响公司的估值。例如，公司的股本成本或无风险利率的变化可能会显著影响估值。对于 Qeeka Home (Cayman)，您还应该考虑三个进一步的因素：</p>
</div><ol>
<li><strong>Risks</strong>: As an example, we've found <strong>4 warning signs for Qeeka Home (Cayman)</strong> (2 are significant!) that you need to consider before investing here.</li>
<li><strong>Other High Quality Alternatives</strong>: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!</li>
<li><strong>Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies</strong>: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li><strong>风险</strong>：例如，我们发现 <strong>Qeeka Home (Cayman) 的 4 个警告信号</strong>（其中 2 个是重要的！）您需要在投资前考虑。</li>
<li><strong>其他高质量替代品</strong>：您喜欢全能型股票吗？探索我们互动的高质量股票列表，了解您可能错过的其他股票！</li>
<li><strong>其他环保公司</strong>：担心环境并认为消费者会越来越多地购买环保产品？浏览我们互动的公司列表，了解一些您可能未曾想到的股票！</li>
</ol>
</div><p>PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PS. Simply Wall St 每天更新每只香港股票的 DCF 计算，因此如果您想找到其他股票的内在价值，只需在此搜索。</p>
</div>

齐屹科技（开曼）有限公司（HKG:1739）的公允价值探讨