<p>First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) 报告的季度业绩超出华尔街预期，收入和同店销售均有所提升。公司的新单位增长和更高的全年指引引起了投资者的关注。</p>
<p>查看我们对 First Watch Restaurant Group 的最新分析。</p>
<p>在年初面临挑战后，First Watch 的股票已经逐渐回升。由于乐观的财报和更高的指引，股票在过去 30 天内上涨了 13.6%。尽管短期内有所反弹，但一年期的股东总回报仍为-18.4%。这表明动能正在积累，但长期投资者仍需克服更多障碍。</p>
<p>如果这种动能转变让你开始寻找其他快速增长的股票，可能是时候扩大你的投资视野，发现那些内部持股比例高的快速成长股票。</p>
<p>由于股票仍在分析师目标价下方约 30% 交易，而强劲的第三季度业绩又重新点燃了乐观情绪，投资者现在面临一个关键问题：在这些水平上，First Watch 的增长故事是否被低估，还是未来的上涨已经反映在价格中？</p>
<h2>最受欢迎的叙述：21.9% 被低估</h2>
<p>First Watch Restaurant Group 最广泛关注的叙述将其公允价值定为 22 美元，显著高于最近的收盘价 17.19 美元。对强劲长期增长的预期，主要由扩张和有针对性的创新驱动，塑造了这一观点。</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>加速在新市场的单位扩张，特别是在快速增长的阳光带和郊区，利用广泛的人口结构变化和显著未开发的房地产机会。这使得 First Watch 有望实现持续的两位数收入增长和市场份额提升。品牌与消费者对健康、清新和定制化日间餐饮需求的增加相一致，加上持续的菜单创新和数字投资，如等候名单自动化和营养过滤器，可能会推动更高的店内流量、客单价增长和强劲的长期同店销售。</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>阅读完整叙述。</p>
<p>想知道是什么真正推动了这一估值的提升吗？这一叙述依赖于不断的新餐厅开业和在该行业中罕见的大胆盈利预测。想知道哪些激进的增长假设支撑了目标价格吗？深入了解一下背后的惊人数字。</p>
<p><strong>结果：公允价值为 22 美元（被低估）</strong></p>
<p>完整阅读叙述，了解预测背后的原因。</p>
<p>然而，持续的成本通胀和 First Watch 限定的日间服务可能会对利润增长构成挑战，并限制公司的长期收入潜力。</p>
<p>了解 First Watch Restaurant Group 叙述的关键风险。</p>
<h2>另一种观点：折现现金流模型提出警示</h2>
<p>虽然许多人基于盈利潜力和价格目标看好 First Watch，但我们的 DCF 模型指向一个不太乐观的结果。根据这种方法，目前的股价实际上高于 SWS DCF 估计的公允价值。这一显著差异提出了一个重要问题：哪种衡量标准更接近真实机会？</p>
<p>了解 SWS DCF 模型如何得出其公允价值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b02cecf7-c467-4afc-a246-322f7feec364/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b02cecf7-c467-4afc-a246-322f7feec364/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 11 月的 FWRG 折现现金流</p>
<p>Simply Wall St 每天对全球每只股票进行折现现金流（DCF）分析（例如查看 First Watch Restaurant Group）。我们展示完整的计算过程。你可以在你的观察列表或投资组合中跟踪结果，并在变化时收到提醒，或者使用我们的股票筛选器发现 876 只基于现金流的被低估股票。如果你保存一个筛选器，我们甚至会在新公司匹配时提醒你——这样你就不会错过潜在机会。</p>
<h2>构建你自己的 First Watch Restaurant Group 叙述</h2>
<p>如果你有自己的观点或想深入了解数字，构建个人叙述只需几分钟。按照你的方式进行。</p>
<p>进行 First Watch Restaurant Group 研究的一个很好的起点是我们的分析，强调 3 个关键奖励和 3 个重要警示信号，这些可能会影响你的投资决策。</p>
<h2>寻找更多投资想法？</h2>
<p>不要让聪明的收益被浪费。通过查看这些目前等待你的杰出股票想法，将今天的动能转化为明天的机会：</p>
<ul>
<li>通过关注这些 16 只收益率超过 3% 的股息股票，解锁可靠的现金流，涉及收益率超过 3% 的公司，以实现稳定的投资组合增长。</li>
<li>抓住机会，乘上下一个创新浪潮，在人群之前发现趋势，浏览这些 876 只基于现金流的被低估股票，这些股票基于未来现金流预期。</li>
<li>通过利用这些 32 只在医疗和技术领域领先关键医疗 AI 解决方案的医疗 AI 股票，推动你的投资组合进步。</li>
</ul>
<p><em>这篇文章由 Simply Wall St 撰写，内容具有一般性。<strong>我们提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论，仅使用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 它不构成购买或出售任何股票的推荐，也不考虑你的目标或财务状况。我们旨在为你提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。</em></p>

FWRG

<p>First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) 超过了盈利预期，导致股价在 30 天内上涨了 13.6%。尽管一年期的股东总回报为-18.4%，但由于第三季度业绩强劲和增长前景的上调，乐观情绪正在上升。分析师认为该股票在 17.19 美元的价格下被低估，公允价值估计为 22 美元，主要受扩张和创新的推动。然而，折现现金流模型显示当前价格可能高于公允价值，这引发了对在成本通胀挑战下未来增长潜力的质疑</p>

<p>First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) reported quarterly results that outpaced Wall Street’s expectations, with a lift in revenue and same-restaurant sales. The company’s new unit growth and higher full-year guidance have caught investor attention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) 报告的季度业绩超出华尔街预期，收入和同店销售均有所提升。公司的新单位增长和更高的全年指引引起了投资者的关注。</p>
</div><p>See our latest analysis for First Watch Restaurant Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看我们对 First Watch Restaurant Group 的最新分析。</p>
</div><p>After a challenging start to the year, First Watch shares have clawed back recent losses. The stock rallied for a 13.6% 30-day share price return as upbeat earnings and higher guidance reignited optimism. Despite the short-term pop, one-year total shareholder return still sits at -18.4%. This suggests that momentum is building, but there is more ground to cover for long-term investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在年初面临挑战后，First Watch 的股票已经逐渐回升。由于乐观的财报和更高的指引，股票在过去 30 天内上涨了 13.6%。尽管短期内有所反弹，但一年期的股东总回报仍为-18.4%。这表明动能正在积累，但长期投资者仍需克服更多障碍。</p>
</div><p>If this momentum shift has you scouting for other fast movers, it might be time to broaden your investing lens and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这种动能转变让你开始寻找其他快速增长的股票，可能是时候扩大你的投资视野，发现那些内部持股比例高的快速成长股票。</p>
</div><p>With shares still trading around 30% below analyst price targets and strong Q3 results fueling renewed optimism, investors now face a key question: is First Watch’s growth story undervalued at these levels, or is future upside already in the price?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于股票仍在分析师目标价下方约 30% 交易，而强劲的第三季度业绩又重新点燃了乐观情绪，投资者现在面临一个关键问题：在这些水平上，First Watch 的增长故事是否被低估，还是未来的上涨已经反映在价格中？</p>
</div><h2>Most Popular Narrative: 21.9% Undervalued</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最受欢迎的叙述：21.9% 被低估</h2>
</div><p>First Watch Restaurant Group's most widely followed narrative sets its fair value at $22, notably higher than the recent closing price of $17.19. Expectations for robust long-term growth, driven by expansion and targeted innovation, shape this perspective.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>First Watch Restaurant Group 最广泛关注的叙述将其公允价值定为 22 美元，显著高于最近的收盘价 17.19 美元。对强劲长期增长的预期，主要由扩张和有针对性的创新驱动，塑造了这一观点。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p><em>Accelerating unit expansion into new markets, especially in fast-growing Sun Belt and suburban areas, leverages broad demographic shifts and significant untapped real estate opportunities. This positions First Watch for sustained double-digit revenue growth and market share gains. The brand's alignment with increasing consumer demand for health-conscious, fresh, and made-to-order daytime dining, along with continued menu innovation and digital investments such as waitlist automation and nutrition filters, is likely to drive higher in-store traffic, check growth, and strong long-term same-restaurant sales.</em></p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p><em>加速在新市场的单位扩张，特别是在快速增长的阳光带和郊区，利用广泛的人口结构变化和显著未开发的房地产机会。这使得 First Watch 有望实现持续的两位数收入增长和市场份额提升。品牌与消费者对健康、清新和定制化日间餐饮需求的增加相一致，加上持续的菜单创新和数字投资，如等候名单自动化和营养过滤器，可能会推动更高的店内流量、客单价增长和强劲的长期同店销售。</em></p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Read the complete narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读完整叙述。</p>
</div><p>Want to know what really propels this valuation higher? The narrative hinges on relentless new restaurant openings and bold earnings projections rarely seen in this sector. Curious which aggressive growth assumptions underpin the target price? Delve deeper to see the remarkable numbers behind the fair value call.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>想知道是什么真正推动了这一估值的提升吗？这一叙述依赖于不断的新餐厅开业和在该行业中罕见的大胆盈利预测。想知道哪些激进的增长假设支撑了目标价格吗？深入了解一下背后的惊人数字。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: Fair Value of $22 (UNDERVALUED)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：公允价值为 22 美元（被低估）</strong></p>
</div><p>Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>完整阅读叙述，了解预测背后的原因。</p>
</div><p>However, persistent cost inflation and First Watch’s limited daytime-only service could challenge margin growth and limit the company’s long-term revenue potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，持续的成本通胀和 First Watch 限定的日间服务可能会对利润增长构成挑战，并限制公司的长期收入潜力。</p>
</div><p>Find out about the key risks to this First Watch Restaurant Group narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解 First Watch Restaurant Group 叙述的关键风险。</p>
</div><h2>Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Model Raises Caution</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>另一种观点：折现现金流模型提出警示</h2>
</div><p>While many see value in First Watch based on earnings potential and price targets, our DCF model points to a less optimistic outcome. According to this approach, the current share price actually sits above the SWS DCF estimate of fair value. This sharp difference poses an important question: which measure is leading you closer to the true opportunity?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然许多人基于盈利潜力和价格目标看好 First Watch，但我们的 DCF 模型指向一个不太乐观的结果。根据这种方法，目前的股价实际上高于 SWS DCF 估计的公允价值。这一显著差异提出了一个重要问题：哪种衡量标准更接近真实机会？</p>
</div><p>Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解 SWS DCF 模型如何得出其公允价值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b02cecf7-c467-4afc-a246-322f7feec364/chart/dcf" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/b02cecf7-c467-4afc-a246-322f7feec364/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>FWRG Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 11 月的 FWRG 折现现金流</p>
</div><p>Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out First Watch Restaurant Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 876 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Simply Wall St 每天对全球每只股票进行折现现金流（DCF）分析（例如查看 First Watch Restaurant Group）。我们展示完整的计算过程。你可以在你的观察列表或投资组合中跟踪结果，并在变化时收到提醒，或者使用我们的股票筛选器发现 876 只基于现金流的被低估股票。如果你保存一个筛选器，我们甚至会在新公司匹配时提醒你——这样你就不会错过潜在机会。</p>
</div><h2>Build Your Own First Watch Restaurant Group Narrative</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>构建你自己的 First Watch Restaurant Group 叙述</h2>
</div><p>If you have your own perspective or want to dive deeper into the numbers, crafting your personal narrative takes just a few minutes. Do it your way</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你有自己的观点或想深入了解数字，构建个人叙述只需几分钟。按照你的方式进行。</p>
</div><p>A great starting point for your First Watch Restaurant Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进行 First Watch Restaurant Group 研究的一个很好的起点是我们的分析，强调 3 个关键奖励和 3 个重要警示信号，这些可能会影响你的投资决策。</p>
</div><h2>Looking for More Investment Ideas?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>寻找更多投资想法？</h2>
</div><p>Don’t leave smart gains on the table. Turn today’s momentum into tomorrow’s opportunities by checking out these standout stock ideas waiting for you right now:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要让聪明的收益被浪费。通过查看这些目前等待你的杰出股票想法，将今天的动能转化为明天的机会：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Unlock reliable cash flow by targeting income potential with these 16 dividend stocks with yields &gt; 3%, featuring companies with attractive yields exceeding 3% for steady portfolio growth.</li>
<li>Seize the chance to ride the next innovation wave and spot trends before the crowd by browsing these 876 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, which is based on future cash flow expectations.</li>
<li>Catalyze your portfolio’s advancement by tapping into rapid breakthroughs in medicine and technology with these 32 healthcare AI stocks stocks that are leading pivotal healthcare AI solutions.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>通过关注这些 16 只收益率超过 3% 的股息股票，解锁可靠的现金流，涉及收益率超过 3% 的公司，以实现稳定的投资组合增长。</li>
<li>抓住机会，乘上下一个创新浪潮，在人群之前发现趋势，浏览这些 876 只基于现金流的被低估股票，这些股票基于未来现金流预期。</li>
<li>通过利用这些 32 只在医疗和技术领域领先关键医疗 AI 解决方案的医疗 AI 股票，推动你的投资组合进步。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>这篇文章由 Simply Wall St 撰写，内容具有一般性。<strong>我们提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论，仅使用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 它不构成购买或出售任何股票的推荐，也不考虑你的目标或财务状况。我们旨在为你提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。</em></p>
</div>

First Watch (FWRG)：在盈利大幅超预期和增长前景上调后的估值看法