<div id="readability-page-1">Financial investment volatility, up and down arrows profit graph due to Coronavirus crisis, businessman trying to balance like a tightrope walker so that volatility does not gobble up his investments getty Each of my kids collected more than three pounds of candy on Halloween Night. Three-plus pounds! Their efforts were not superhuman by my best late-80s-to-early-90s estimation.  We are going to have these bags until Easter.  The candy hangover was real. Both YMCA basketball games played “the day after” were utter disasters for their dad and coach.  Sugar-high crashes are real. Which is why we are talking “sleep well at night” dividends paying up to 8.6% today.  Don’t be Coach Brett the day after Halloween. If you’re worried about a Wall Street sugar withdrawal, the time to prepare ye ‘ol portfolio is right now.  “Low beta”—the boring, sane value stock and/or dividend payer—has rarely been this cheap. The crowd is chasing the “high beta” racehorses:  Ycharts “Beta” is a quick-and-dirty way to measure volatility. A beta of above 1 means a stock is more volatile than the market, and a beta of below 1 means it’s less volatile.  Generally, the lower the beta, the more stable the stock—which cuts both ways. They’re probably not going to sizzle in a bull market like this, but they also will give up less ground (or actually gain ground) if the environment turns bearish.  MORE FOR YOU So consider this a shopping list of stocks we’ll want to have at the ready should this relentless bull market hit a wall.  Let’s start with Safety Insurance Group (SAFT, 5.2% yield), an A.M. Best “A”-rated insurer providing property and casualty (P&amp;C) insurer serving Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine. The biggest chunk of its business is writing private passenger automobile insurance (~55% of direct written premiums), it also offers homeowners (24%), commercial auto (15%), dwelling fire, umbrella, and business owner policies.  Vanilla investors don’t expect insurance to be a low-volatility business given that insurers are known for big profitability swings based on natural disasters and other exogenic events. But, in fact, the insurance industry has been about half as volatile as the broader market over the past few years, and SAFT is no exception, boasting a 1- and 5-year betas of 0.47 and 0.26, respectively, that tell the tale of a pretty sleepy stock.  Ycharts The low volatility is nice for downturns, as is SAFT’s attractive 5%-plus yield.  The business itself hasn’t been much to crow about given lackluster underwriting results over the past few years. But its combined ratio (a measure of underwriting profitability that’s calculated as incurred losses + expenses / earned premium) has recently dipped below 100%, which is a big step in the right direction.  Another big step? In August, the company improved its payout by 2%. It’s small, but it’s the first raise since 2019—momentum in the right direction.  Universal Corp. (UVV, 6.4% yield) comes from a more traditional “safety” business: tobacco. But Universal isn’t our standard Big Tobacco stock, like Philip Morris International (PM) and Altria Group (MO) that produce cigarettes and other tobacco products.  As I’ve said in the past , UVV is a tobacco “picks and shovels” play. Rather than producing tobacco products, it simply provides the tobacco to companies that make the products. And in addition to its leaf tobacco business, it also has a growing ingredients division (Universal Ingredients).  UVV offers the big yield we expect out of Big Tobacco (6%-plus at current prices), but its low betas (1-year: 0.33, 5-year: 0.67) are a little misleading. The stock is actually prone to sharp spikes and quick trenches; its beta is more a result of its counter-market trends.  Universal perks up more often than it doesn’t during market downturns, but it’s not a guaranteed winner in a bear market, either.  It’s cheap, though. UVV trades at 11 times earnings estimates, half its trailing sales and just below book.  LTC Properties (LTC, 6.4% yield) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that’s roughly 50/50 split between assisted living properties and skilled nursing facilities. And it’s low on drama, sporting a 5-year beta of 0.62 and a 1-year beta of 0.23 that reflects what has been extremely steady movement over both time frames.  As with SAFT, LTC shows how low beta can lag during bull runs.  Ycharts That could change. I’ve been following LTC closely this year, in part because it’s shifting part of its business from triple-net leases (that back out taxes, maintenance and insurance costs) into REIT Investment Diversification and Empowerment Act (RIDEA)-structured contracts that gives LTC exposure to the real estate’s operations, which allows the company to participate in net operating income (NOI).  LTC’s price is OK, but not great, at 13 times funds from operations (FFO) estimates, but the dividend yield (6%-plus) is, as is the dividend frequency (monthly).  The consumer staples sector is typically good for a few low-vol stocks, and we have one in Flowers Foods (FLO, 8.2% yield). Flowers is a bakery giant whose businesses can largely be split into bread (Wonder, Sunbeam, Nature’s Own, Dave’s Killer Bread, among others) and snacks (Tastykake, Mrs. Freshley’s and more).  The good news? Flowers continues to gain share in multiple categories, and its top line has grown in five of the past six years. Profit growth hasn’t been nearly so consistent, but the arrow is still pointed in the right direction. And yet:  Ycharts Again, low betas of 0.16 (1-year) and 0.31 (5-year) are misleading, more a product of FLO flopping while the market flies.  But how can a company dealing one of the most vital grocery staples—with stable financial results and a massive yield to boot—have such a floundering stock?  Flowers does face high exposure to import tariffs on key ingredients including sugar, wheat, palm oil, and cocoa. Its snacks division also faces pressure from GLP-1 drug usage. Acquisitions have also ballooned its long-term debt to more than $1.7 billion, which is more than its $1.4 billion in equity (including negligible cash holdings).  But the dividend is high, at 8%-plus, and while it’s not growing rapidly—its May hike was a 3% bump higher—it is growing. Meanwhile, shares trade at about 11 times earnings estimates and at roughly half trailing sales.  Hotel property owner Apple Hospitality REIT (APLE, 8.6% yield) has been mostly lethargic over the past few years. And as far as low-volatility stocks go, APLE isn’t even all that calm—its 1- and 5-year betas of 0.94 and 0.85 are lower than the market, but not by very much.  Ycharts Still, we’re talking about an 8%-plus monthly payer with a very safe-looking dividend (75% of adjusted FFO estimates) that trades at less than 9 times those estimates. Could this downturn in APLE be an opportunity?  Apple Hospitality’s portfolio includes 220 hotels across 85 markets in 37 states and D.C. Those are largely split between the Hilton (HLT) and Marriott (MAR) brands, at 118 and 96, respectively, with the remaining five flying the Hyatt (H) flag.  The portfolio is well-diversified geographically, it enjoys strong margins, and World Cup 2026 demand could act as wind in Apple’s sails. A big problem is what to expect until then—as business optimism fades, so too do the prospects for business travel, and Apple is more sensitive to the government shutdown than other hotel REITs.  Brett Owens is Chief Investment Strategist for Contrarian Outlook . For more great income ideas, get your free copy his latest special report: How to Live off Huge Monthly Dividends (up to 7.6%) — Practically Forever .</div>

SAFT

环球烟草

LTC房产

<p>这篇文章讨论了低贝塔股息股票，这些股票在市场波动期间被视为稳定的投资。文章重点介绍了三只股票：Safety Insurance Group（SAFT）收益率为 5.2%，Universal Corp.（UVV）收益率为 6.4%，以及 LTC Properties（LTC）同样为 6.4%。这些股票的波动性低于市场，使其对寻求可靠收入的保守投资者具有吸引力。作者指出，这些股票在牛市中可能表现平平，但在市场下行时很可能能够保持稳定</p>

低波动中是否存在高潜力？这些股息支付者认为是这样，股息率高达 8.6%