<p>（作者是路透社 Breakingviews 专栏作家。所表达的观点仅代表他本人。）</p>
<p>作者：Hugo Dixon</p>
<p>希腊纳克索斯，11 月 10 日（路透社 Breakingviews）——唐纳德·特朗普将在本周在巴西举行的年度联合国气候大会上成为一个幽灵。这位美国总统支持化石燃料，反对全球采取行动防止气候变化，这将给未来几代人带来麻烦。但并非一片 gloom。技术、地缘政治、经济和金融趋势要强得多。没有任何高级美国官员将出席被称为 COP30 的会议。特朗普还已通知美国将第二次退出巴黎气候协议。事情还不止于此。他的政府削减了绿色激励措施，同时推动国内的碳氢化合物项目。它还削减了气候援助，并退出了支持南非、越南和印度尼西亚进行清洁能源转型的计划。与此同时，美国还强迫世界其他国家放弃对航运碳排放征税的计划。白宫还在推动盟友购买其天然气。净零银行联盟，一个贷款方的联盟，上个月在政治压力下解散。特朗普甚至扭曲了科技企业家比尔·盖茨的话，宣称：“我（我们！）刚刚赢得了气候变化骗局的战争”。可别急。总统只是气候变化斗争中的一个参与者，甚至不是最有权势的。</p>
<h3>技术 - 地缘政治联系</h3>
<p>当华盛顿在推动旧的肮脏技术时，北京则在倡导新的清洁技术。这部分是出于经济原因。中国在太阳能电池板、电池和电动车的生产中占据主导地位。它在国内大规模部署这些技术，并向国外输出以维持其增长。</p>
<p>中华人民共和国还认为，通过专注于清洁技术，可以缩小与美国的创新差距。此外，依赖化石燃料进口使其面临战略脆弱性。可再生能源为其提供了能源安全。</p>
<p>其他依赖进口碳氢化合物的地区也在朝着同样的方向思考。欧盟已经认识到依赖俄罗斯天然气的愚蠢。与此同时，印度、非洲和其他阳光带地区希望利用本土的自然资源，而不是花费稀缺的外汇从国外购买能源。世界正在经历一个被气候智库 Ember 称为 “电力技术革命” 的过程。补贴和政府政策启动了太阳能、风能和电池的发展。但现在形成了一个良性循环：随着价格下降，世界推广清洁技术，导致规模经济和更快的创新，进一步降低成本并鼓励更快的部署。</p>
<p>许多新兴国家现在将清洁转型视为推动其发展的方式，而不是对其发展的阻碍。历史上能源匮乏的地区希望直接跳跃到新技术，利用丰富的廉价无污染电力。问题在于如何获得足够的前期资本——用于太阳能电池板、风电场、高压输电线、电力储存等。资金需求巨大。COP30 将考虑来自巴西和阿塞拜疆的 “路线图”，该国去年主办了联合国气候大会，设定每年向新兴和发展中国家筹集 1.3 万亿美元以资助转型的目标。富裕国家充其量只能提供一小部分资金。不仅仅是美国在削减援助。国防等优先事项在其他地方争夺稀缺资源。</p>
<h3>金融创新</h3>
<p>尽管如此，仍然有乐观的理由。一个原因是许多新兴经济体心态的转变。巴西、埃及和孟加拉国等国正在积极寻求私人投资，而不是等待富裕国家告诉他们该做什么以换取公共资金的补助。核心思想是开发 “国家平台”，提供一致的计划，以利用低碳技术推动经济增长。通过采取协调一致的政府政策，他们旨在开发吸引大规模资本的投资管道。</p>
<p>公共资金仍然需要加速这一进程。但有限的资金需要产生更大的影响。这就是金融创新发挥作用的地方。近年来，关于如何最大化多边开发银行（MDBs），如世界银行的影响的工作现在开始见效。例如，国际美洲开发银行计划从商业银行购买贷款，将其证券化并出售给机构投资者。条件是银行将资金再投资于发展中国家的清洁技术项目。IDB 认为，这类贷款的池子在全球可能达到 3 万亿美元。运行保守的多边开发银行也可能拥有比之前认为的更多的实力。标准普尔全球上个月表示，这些机构作为优先债权人的地位意味着它们可以扩展资产负债表，同时保持其顶级信用评级。它们可能总共有超过 6000 亿美元的额外贷款能力。因此，在需要筹集额外资本之前，它们可以做更多的事情——在大多数情况下，特朗普可以否决这一点。</p>
<p>私募基金在全球金融体系的调整下可能会更加自由地流动。新的路线图要求金融稳定委员会等监管机构审查其规则是否充分考虑气候风险，或是否妨碍对贫困国家低碳项目的投资。新兴和发展中经济体的政府也可以对碳排放征税，以推动清洁技术的转型。这在预算紧张的情况下显得尤为吸引人。巴西正在启动自己的碳市场，并与其他国家推动这一理念。关于全球未能实现将全球变暖限制在工业化前水平上升 1.5 摄氏度的目标，已经有很多讨论。然而，较少人关注的是联合国最新的预测，预计气温将上升 2.3-2.5 摄氏度，远低于科学家在 16 年前预测的 6 摄氏度。</p>
<p>更重要的是，这并不是该主题的最后定论。尽管特朗普的努力存在，但技术和地缘政治力量意味着未来几年还有更好的发展空间。请在 X 上关注 @Hugodixon</p>
<p>温室气体排放增速放缓，但仍在上升</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/znpnqemajvl/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/znpnqemajvl/chart.png"/></p>
<p>光伏面板的价格已经崩溃</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/byvrbllbwve/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/byvrbllbwve/chart.png"/></p>
<p>（编辑：彼得·塔尔·拉尔森；制作：玛雅·南丁）</p>

<p>唐纳德·特朗普缺席 COP30 气候大会凸显了他政府对化石燃料的推动以及退出全球气候协议的立场。尽管如此，全球趋势仍然倾向于清洁技术，中国在可再生能源生产方面处于领先地位。新兴经济体正在寻求私人投资以实现低碳增长，而金融创新旨在将大量资金引入清洁技术项目。即将召开的 COP30 将讨论一项路线图，以每年动员 1.3 万亿美元用于发展中国家的能源转型，强调需要采取协作方式应对气候变化</p>

<p>(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者是路透社 Breakingviews 专栏作家。所表达的观点仅代表他本人。）</p>
</div><p>By Hugo Dixon</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Hugo Dixon</p>
</div><p>NAXOS, GREECE, Nov 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Donald Trump will be a ghost at the annual United Nations climate conference that starts this week in Brazil. The U.S. president’s campaign in favour of fossil fuels and against global action to prevent climate change will store up trouble for future generations. But all is not gloom. Technological, geopolitical, economic and financial trends are far stronger. No senior U.S. official will be attending the conference known as COP30. Trump has also given notice that America will quit the Paris climate agreement for the second time. That’s not all. His administration has cut green incentives while pushing hydrocarbon projects at home. It has also slashed climate aid and pulled out of plans to support South Africa, Vietnam and Indonesia with their clean energy transitions. Meanwhile, the United States has bullied the rest of the world into abandoning a plan to tax carbon emissions from shipping. The White House is also pushing allies to buy its gas. The Net-Zero Banking Alliance, a coalition of lenders, disbanded last month under political pressure. Trump even twisted the words of Bill Gates, the tech entrepreneur, to declare: “I (WE!) just won the War on the Climate Change Hoax”. Not so fast. The president is just one player in the battle over climate change, and not even the most powerful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>希腊纳克索斯，11 月 10 日（路透社 Breakingviews）——唐纳德·特朗普将在本周在巴西举行的年度联合国气候大会上成为一个幽灵。这位美国总统支持化石燃料，反对全球采取行动防止气候变化，这将给未来几代人带来麻烦。但并非一片 gloom。技术、地缘政治、经济和金融趋势要强得多。没有任何高级美国官员将出席被称为 COP30 的会议。特朗普还已通知美国将第二次退出巴黎气候协议。事情还不止于此。他的政府削减了绿色激励措施，同时推动国内的碳氢化合物项目。它还削减了气候援助，并退出了支持南非、越南和印度尼西亚进行清洁能源转型的计划。与此同时，美国还强迫世界其他国家放弃对航运碳排放征税的计划。白宫还在推动盟友购买其天然气。净零银行联盟，一个贷款方的联盟，上个月在政治压力下解散。特朗普甚至扭曲了科技企业家比尔·盖茨的话，宣称：“我（我们！）刚刚赢得了气候变化骗局的战争”。可别急。总统只是气候变化斗争中的一个参与者，甚至不是最有权势的。</p>
</div><h3>TECH-GEOPOLITICAL NEXUS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>技术 - 地缘政治联系</h3>
</div><p>While Washington is pushing old dirty technologies, Beijing is championing new clean ones. This is partly for economic reasons. China dominates the production of solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles. It is deploying these in vast quantities at home and pumping them out abroad to sustain its growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当华盛顿在推动旧的肮脏技术时，北京则在倡导新的清洁技术。这部分是出于经济原因。中国在太阳能电池板、电池和电动车的生产中占据主导地位。它在国内大规模部署这些技术，并向国外输出以维持其增长。</p>
</div><p>The People’s Republic also believes that, by focussing on clean technologies, it can close the innovation gap with the United States. What is more, its reliance on fossil fuel imports creates a strategic vulnerability. Renewables give it energy security.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中华人民共和国还认为，通过专注于清洁技术，可以缩小与美国的创新差距。此外，依赖化石燃料进口使其面临战略脆弱性。可再生能源为其提供了能源安全。</p>
</div><p>Other parts of the world that depend on imported hydrocarbons are thinking the same way. The European Union has learnt the folly of relying on Russian gas. Meanwhile, India, Africa and other sunbelt regions want to use a natural resource that shines at home rather than spend scarce foreign exchange to buy energy from abroad. The world is experiencing what Ember, a climate think tank, calls an “electrotech revolution”. Subsidies and government policies kickstarted solar power, wind power and batteries. But there is now a virtuous circle: as prices fall, the world rolls out clean technology, leading to economies of scale and faster innovation, further driving down costs and encouraging yet quicker deployment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他依赖进口碳氢化合物的地区也在朝着同样的方向思考。欧盟已经认识到依赖俄罗斯天然气的愚蠢。与此同时，印度、非洲和其他阳光带地区希望利用本土的自然资源，而不是花费稀缺的外汇从国外购买能源。世界正在经历一个被气候智库 Ember 称为 “电力技术革命” 的过程。补贴和政府政策启动了太阳能、风能和电池的发展。但现在形成了一个良性循环：随着价格下降，世界推广清洁技术，导致规模经济和更快的创新，进一步降低成本并鼓励更快的部署。</p>
</div><p>Many emerging countries now see the clean transition less as an impediment to their development than as a way to drive it forward. Parts of the world that have historically been energy poor want to leapfrog directly to the new technologies, harnessing abundant cheap non-polluting electricity. The question is how to get enough upfront capital - for solar panels, wind farms, high voltage transmission lines, electricity storage and the like. The sums are huge. COP30 will consider a “roadmap” from Brazil and Azerbaijan, which hosted last year’s U.N. climate conference, setting out how to channel $1.3 trillion a year to emerging and developing countries to fund the transition. Rich countries will at best provide a fraction of the cash. It is not just the United States which is cutting aid. Priorities such as defence are competing for scarce resources elsewhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多新兴国家现在将清洁转型视为推动其发展的方式，而不是对其发展的阻碍。历史上能源匮乏的地区希望直接跳跃到新技术，利用丰富的廉价无污染电力。问题在于如何获得足够的前期资本——用于太阳能电池板、风电场、高压输电线、电力储存等。资金需求巨大。COP30 将考虑来自巴西和阿塞拜疆的 “路线图”，该国去年主办了联合国气候大会，设定每年向新兴和发展中国家筹集 1.3 万亿美元以资助转型的目标。富裕国家充其量只能提供一小部分资金。不仅仅是美国在削减援助。国防等优先事项在其他地方争夺稀缺资源。</p>
</div><h3>FINANCIAL INNOVATION</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>金融创新</h3>
</div><p>Still, there are reasons for optimism. One is the shift of mindset in many emerging economies. Countries such as Brazil, Egypt and Bangladesh are actively seeking private investment rather than waiting for richer countries to tell them what to do in return for handouts from public funds. The central idea is to develop “country platforms”, which provide coherent plans to drive economic growth with low-carbon technology. By taking a joined-up approach to government policy, they aim to develop investment pipelines that attract capital at scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，仍然有乐观的理由。一个原因是许多新兴经济体心态的转变。巴西、埃及和孟加拉国等国正在积极寻求私人投资，而不是等待富裕国家告诉他们该做什么以换取公共资金的补助。核心思想是开发 “国家平台”，提供一致的计划，以利用低碳技术推动经济增长。通过采取协调一致的政府政策，他们旨在开发吸引大规模资本的投资管道。</p>
</div><p>Public funds are still needed to accelerate this process. But the limited money needs to make a bigger impact. This is where financial innovation comes in. Work in recent years over how to maximise the impact of multilateral development banks (MDBs), such as the World Bank, is now bearing fruit. For example, the Inter-American Development Bank is planning to buy up loans from commercial banks, securitise them and sell them on to institutional investors. The condition is that the banks reinvest the funds in clean technology projects in developing countries. The IDB thinks the pool for such loans could be $3 trillion globally. The MDBs, which are run conservatively, also probably have more firepower than previously thought. S&amp;P Global said last month that the institutions’ status as preferred creditors means they can stretch their balance sheets and still keep their top-notch credit ratings. They may have $600 billion-plus extra lending capacity in total. As a result, they can do a lot more before they have to raise additional capital - something Trump could in most cases veto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公共资金仍然需要加速这一进程。但有限的资金需要产生更大的影响。这就是金融创新发挥作用的地方。近年来，关于如何最大化多边开发银行（MDBs），如世界银行的影响的工作现在开始见效。例如，国际美洲开发银行计划从商业银行购买贷款，将其证券化并出售给机构投资者。条件是银行将资金再投资于发展中国家的清洁技术项目。IDB 认为，这类贷款的池子在全球可能达到 3 万亿美元。运行保守的多边开发银行也可能拥有比之前认为的更多的实力。标准普尔全球上个月表示，这些机构作为优先债权人的地位意味着它们可以扩展资产负债表，同时保持其顶级信用评级。它们可能总共有超过 6000 亿美元的额外贷款能力。因此，在需要筹集额外资本之前，它们可以做更多的事情——在大多数情况下，特朗普可以否决这一点。</p>
</div><p>Private funds will also probably flow more freely with tweaks to global financial plumbing. The new roadmap calls on regulators such as the Financial Stability Board to examine if their rules account for climate risks adequately or impede investment in low-carbon projects in poorer countries. Governments of emerging and developing economies can also tax carbon emissions to drive the clean tech transition. This is appealing given tight budgets. Brazil, which is starting its own carbon market, is pushing the idea with other countries. Much has been said about the world missing a goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees centigrade above pre-industrial levels. What has received less attention is the latest U.N. projection that temperatures will rise 2.3-2.5 degrees centigrade, much lower than the 6 degrees scientists forecast only 16 years ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私募基金在全球金融体系的调整下可能会更加自由地流动。新的路线图要求金融稳定委员会等监管机构审查其规则是否充分考虑气候风险，或是否妨碍对贫困国家低碳项目的投资。新兴和发展中经济体的政府也可以对碳排放征税，以推动清洁技术的转型。这在预算紧张的情况下显得尤为吸引人。巴西正在启动自己的碳市场，并与其他国家推动这一理念。关于全球未能实现将全球变暖限制在工业化前水平上升 1.5 摄氏度的目标，已经有很多讨论。然而，较少人关注的是联合国最新的预测，预计气温将上升 2.3-2.5 摄氏度，远低于科学家在 16 年前预测的 6 摄氏度。</p>
</div><p>What is more, this is not the last word on the topic. Despite Trump’s efforts, technological and geopolitical forces mean there is scope to do even better in coming years. Follow @Hugodixon on X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，这并不是该主题的最后定论。尽管特朗普的努力存在，但技术和地缘政治力量意味着未来几年还有更好的发展空间。请在 X 上关注 @Hugodixon</p>
</div><p>Greenhouse gas emissions have slowed but are still rising</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>温室气体排放增速放缓，但仍在上升</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/znpnqemajvl/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/znpnqemajvl/chart.png"/></p>
<p>The price of photovoltaic panels has collapsed</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>光伏面板的价格已经崩溃</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/byvrbllbwve/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/byvrbllbwve/chart.png"/></p>
<p>(Editing by Peter Thal Larsen; Production by Maya Nandhini)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（编辑：彼得·塔尔·拉尔森；制作：玛雅·南丁）</p>
</div>

BREAKINGVIEWS-特朗普可以拖延但无法阻止全球气候行动